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Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary (and next day's position)

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Comments: December 31, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex SPX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex SPX 2x fund. The last day of the year was positive but small-change, continuing a trend that held for a good portion of the year. Today we took our first position for 2020 and went partially long. There was an attack on our embassy in Iraq prior to the market opening on Tuesday, but it did not seem to have any major effect on the markets. We will be trading the S&P for most of January. We will update our historic returns over the next few days to include the results from 2019. Have a happy new year.

Comments: December 30, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. We remain cautious as our signal components are split and the combination of years end and very low volatility dictates. This has been a very good year for the markets, especially in the face of dangerous earnings-destroying tariffs and political divide. Continued low interest rates and tame inflation have been a plus. Watch volatility going into the new year to see if this can continue.

Comments: December 27, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. Going into year end there are additional considerations for trading like adjustments to portfolios and tax considerations these can not be measured as easily and represent additional risk. The same applies to the first week in the new year. The low volatility eases the risk on one hand with the expected daily changes being low, but increases them on the other by not providing much information to make an informed decision. Our probabilities are leaning slightly lower and our signal was partially short, but the positives from the rally and the year end effect pushed us into the money market. This was a low volatility year but with the improvements we made to our program over the past few years we were prepared for it and have done well. So far our SuperAlgo program shows a greater than 60% per year compound annual three year growth rate.

Comments: December 26, 2019

Comments: December 24, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. The day after Christmas has historically been one of the most likely days for the market to go higher. Of course since it happens only one day a year we don't have a lot of data. Our program was not as optimistic, and with the market frozen with almost no change on Tuesday, we moved to the money market as we try to always lean to the side of caution. The NDX has already shown gains in each of the last 10 days but because the gains are very small there is nothing really stopping them from continuing at least a few days longer. So enjoy the holiday and forget about the markets for a day.

Comments: December 23, 2019

Comments: December 20, 2019

Comments: December 19, 2019

Comments: December 18, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The markets paused on Wednesday moving only slightly higher and repeating the +.06% daily change for the NDX from the prior day. We are holding our short position as the market underpinnings seem to be weakening, but not by that much. Our market pulse, for example, is negative as well as our money flow indicators somewhat increasing the case for downside on Thursday.

Comments: December 17, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The markets paused on Tuesday moving only slightly higher. We are holding on to the short position but do not expect any large down move. Our market indicators and expectations are pretty much unchanged from yesterday.

Comments: December 16, 2019

Comments: December 13, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. We had a good week making up for last week and achieving new all time highs. With the first leg of trade talks settled the market focus will change. Interest rates remain low and housing construction permits which fell between early 2018 and mid 2019 are increasing again along with the average sale price of homes across the country. This differs from what is happening on the coasts which had gotten over extended. So overall with the stabilization of tariffs there should not be severe doom and gloom to dampen the markets. On the other hand the markets have gained significantly since the last December low and that in itself could be reason for a pause to wait for the economy to catch up. Either way we step forward one day at a time.

Comments: December 12, 2019

Comments: December 11, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. This is our first strong positive expectation this month. Indicators are strong and aligned, weak volatility could be overrun by bad news, but I am not expecting that to happen. Most likely outcome is a run up to or above the November highs then a pause on Friday. With the markets near or at new highs there is room for bad news on tariffs, good news is more likely to be held back until it is needed but I can only guess on those points.

Comments: December 10, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The markets mushed to below even by the close. There was no major selling. We moved back to our partial long position for Wednesday. Volatility remains low. Risk of market disruption due to whim remains high. Probabilities for upside on Wednesday look better than they did on Tuesday. For the next few days and under these shaky conditions, we will only take the more compelling trades.

Comments: December 9, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Can't blame the news today. Our signals are not very strong and we have not been fully invested. We moved to the sidelines for Tuesday as some conflicting elements left us without significant data for a strong decision although on the surface it leans to the upside. Trump's tariff warning is centered on the 15th and throws more smoke into the mix. Not the best of times.

Comments: December 6, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. For the second time in a week we were on the wrong side of a significant news day. We were almost fully recovered from the first shock when the second one hit today leaving us with our seventh worse week this year. Unfortunately we can't forecast news (we only get about half the news days correct) and the strong jobs report (even after adjusting for the near 50,000 laid off auto workers returning to work) was strong and impressive. This is very good for the short term economy indicating that the tariffs did less damage than expected. The longer term read is not so good as the jobs are coming from things like health care services which is a zero sum game where money is being drained from the elderly portions of the population and shifted to the younger portion and those already well off, like big pharmaceuticals, hospitals, doctors etc. More important for the economy would be manufacturing, especially areas where products are sold overseas indicating that capital is moving into our economy from outside, but that is not happening. Education is part of the service economy that would improve our economy long term but there is such an inflation in costs that the negatives of debt could be more than the benefit as can be seen by the large damaging student debt. We are in the early stages of a redistribution of wealth from the baby boomers and older being shifted over to the younger generations. The major portion of wealth in our country is situated in the pockets of the plus 60 year olds and the medical industry will fight to get as much as possible before it gets passed on through inheritance to a younger, healthier generation who actually need the funds to supplement their being in a more difficult economic situation relative to their parents.

Comments: December 5, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The metered out good news, bad news, regarding trade talks and tariffs has been well played by the administration. The Chinese news media is aware of the game aimed to keep the stock market afloat without it going to far in either direction and has spelled it out. Most likely (but not proven) Mnuchin is orchestrating this, but as long as no one in the administration is placing bets on the direction it would fall under "acceptable" market manipulation and not criminal market manipulation. But who is to say what is acceptable, certainly not the trader that is slammed by it. And who can say that no one in the administration is profiting by it. For us, we can expect that the moves will not push too far or last very long. My program is now caught between strong positive indicators and some weak ones pulling in the other direction leaving us with a mild short going into Friday. Probabilities are flat so I don't expect much. Money flow is positive and volatility remains very low.

Comments: December 4, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. SuperAlgo and our Primary program are now slightly up for the week. We have moved into the money market for Thursday and our probabilities are now split, negative for the S&P and positive for the NDX making it very easy for news of any kind to be disruptive. We are waiting this one out. Nothing clear for Thursday. Money flow turned neutral and the volatility never increased very much from its low point.

Comments: December 3, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Our signal strengthened and we switched back to the long side, regaining a little more than half of Monday's drop for our clients. Hopefully Monday's move will raise the volatility enough to make our trading easier and although we will never be able to forecast the news, we have a good track record of grinding our way back after some news-based-shock gives us a smack. We remain partially exposed only now we are long again and the probabilities are looking reasonably good. Money flow has improved and three down days in a row under certain conditions (that we currently have), often call for a rebound.

Comments: December 2, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The aftermarket started out higher Sunday night expecting good news from Cyber Monday only to be shot down shortly after the morning bell as bad news regarding US manufacturing came along with an increase in tariff aggression. It would have been worse without the upbeat Black Friday-Cyber Monday news. Still we are expecting more downside on Tuesday and moved to a partially short position. Volatility remains very low but it is slowly climbing. It appears that the consumer-retail part of the economy is still positive while the manufacturing portion is slowing. Housing prices have fallen over the past few months and affordability is increasing as interest rates decline and worker earnings advance. So we have both positives and negatives.

Comments: November 29, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. As soon as Trump signed the legislation condemning China on Wednesday the futures markets started to fall and it carried through into Friday. This was real news and not good news for the attempt to repair the disastrous tariffs through ongoing talks with China. Its not personal, its business. Our program backed off its "fully" long position but remains optimistic that some additional up side could happen on Monday. Retail sales numbers will most likely not be that bright as the trend has solidified to on-line purchases, and those numbers will not show up until Tuesday. I was at the LA car show this week and it seemed very up-beat. Two weeks ago I was in NYC and there were signs that retail continues to suffer under high rents, an excess of retail vacancies tells me these places are owned by syndications that are able to hold out for higher rent. Prices in the condo market in lower Manhattan are held in check by extra high home owner fees that increase the cost of ownership by a third. Three weeks ago I was in North Carolina where there was a great deal of ongoing home construction. It is a bit strange that with online sales dominating retail, that rents (retail space, office and apartments) continue to be excessive in places like NY and CA. Perhaps it will take rising interest rates and another economic recession shock to bring a readjustment to these values.

Comments: November 27, 2019

Happy Thanksgiving to all. I am thankful for our clients which helps pay our bills and provide the time for me to work on making our programs better.

I expect that this rally could carry past Friday (which closes three hours earlier than normal) and go into Monday as the daily moves are small and non-threatening. The impeachment hearings have been good for the markets as it helps keep our president from doing major economic harm with additional tariffs and international relationships, as he already has enough negatives to worry about. And the Democratic contenders are still to numerous for investors to worry about. All good. All our programs are doing very well in these dull conditions, so we are expecting really great things when volatility kicks up again.

Comments: November 26, 2019 ...late posting

Comments: November 25, 2019

Comments: November 22, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX gained a small amount. These daily changes are exceptionally small which makes our job more difficult as the "emotional" component of the market is very even. Our probabilities appear to be leaning lower for Monday, but with limited "small change" data we have moved to the money market. Very low volatility markets are more easily moved by news and at the current time the news is full of rumors. Trading should be light going into Thanksgiving week trading should become even lighter and along with it smaller daily changes. Perhaps a more normal market will come afterwards.

Comments: November 21, 2019

Comments: November 20, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. This time the rumors are that part one of the tariff talks will not be resolved in 2019. This comes at the same time the Senate passed a pro Hong Kong bill and Trump boasts that he will raise tariffs if there is no deal. Still the market's reaction is muted. Money continues to slowly flow into the markets. We have a partial "short" signal for Thursday it is hard to get very much downward motion with low volatility but the probabilities are encouraging for the downside.

Comments: November 19, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Yesterday's comments said current position " for Monday", has been corrected to say "for Tuesday". Tuesday's markets were very mixed with the Dow down, S&P mostly flat, and NDX slightly raised. China tariffs remain investors number one consideration and possible European and other tariffs remain number two in these investor's minds. Every thing else is moving in slow motion. The market has moved a bit ahead of itself but there isn't enough bad news to swing it down very much and every dip is being purchased.

Comments: November 18, 2019

Comments: November 16, 2019

Comments: November 14, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% NDX 2x fund. Once more the market closed only slightly changed. These small changes are reflected in the low volatility. I expect a small upside move for Friday as investors, expecting positive results from the trade talks, position themselves for the weekend. Our trade deficit is rising as the tariffs are causing our trading partners to go elsewhere. This could cause long term damage to our economy. Most recent longer term forecast was posted this month.

Comments: November 13, 2019

Comments: November 12, 2019

Comments: November 11, 2019

Comments: November 9, 2019

Comments: November 7, 2019

Comments: November 6, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. The markets finally slipped a little as the volatility continues to fall. We moved into the money markets after over a week of holding a long position. Dip was very small and the markets remain higher for the week. China has launched the R&D for 6G network technology. The meeting between Donald Trump and China's XI Jinping on tariff resolve is rumored to be pushed back till December.

Comments: November 5, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% NDX 2x fund. The markets have probably reached a short term top but our signal remained partially long. A major component of our signal increased in strength while other components weakened leaving us with the same partially long signal we held for over a week. Today's NDX100 market moved in a very controlled small range slightly above even for most of the day and closing a touch below. While the S&P was even closer to the zero change level it also fell near the close. Volatility slipped lower. I expect that at some point very soon we will have a sharp, larger move of currently unknown direction. A New longer term forecast was posted on Monday.

Comments: November 4, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% NDX 2x fund. Our programs have been "partially long" the market for over a week. This is a long time for us to be in one direction, but the gains have been moderate and consistent which keeps fear low and allows for longer up trends. It is a stealth bull move. All our programs are at, or remain at (Conservative program), new all time highs. SuperAlgo is just shy of +45% ytd. This year is less volatile than last year so there is less opportunity for monster gains. Most likely more positive China expectations will carry us through Tuesday. I posted a New longer term forecast today.

Comments: November 1, 2019

Comments: October 31, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% NDX 2x fund. Once again we are holding our partial long position. There was a news report that China was did not trust that Donald Trump would honor any major long term agreement. Pundits blamed the pull back on this news. But this isn't news. With Trump businesses having 3500 related law suits, his 6 corporate bankruptcies multiple divorces and a continuous string of oral miscommunications it would be a surprise if even his staunchest supporters would want to enter into a contract with him. So the small pullback is likely a good reason to go long rather than the "news" being the start of a market drop. The positive earnings of Facebook and Apple released after the close on Wednesday kept the NDX from losing money as the S&P fell. Only a weak positive signal for Friday.

Comments: October 30, 2019

Comments: October 29, 2019

Comments: October 28, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% NDX 2x fund. We spent the past week updating our programs focusing on the money market days. We were able to increase the number of effective trading days and that should help reduce the time spent in dips and increase the overall returns. Today's upside has brought two thirds of our programs to new highs and the two are very close. SuperAlgo is less than two percent from its high, but it is up over 41% ytd and has much more than tripled in value from when we started about three years ago. Volatility is on the low side and our Market Structure remains poised to push the market higher but has not started its move. Tuesday's signal is not as strong as it was for Monday and GOOG did not meet earnings expectations and fell after the bell and it will lean on the NDX. The crowd is waiting on the FED and on word relating to US China tariffs.

Comments: October 25, 2019

Comments: October 24, 2019

Current position for Friday: SuperAlgo is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Looks like we will take a SuperAlgo hit on Friday as Amazon's earnings, announced after the close, were not up to original expectations. It was not that much of a surprise as some information had already leaked. The NDX is skewed by a few large capitalization stocks like Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, Google and Intel which make up almost half of its weighed value. This causes the markets to have distortions in behavior following earnings announcements on those stocks especially under low volatility conditions.

Comments: October 23, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Tesla jumped about 20% after the close on good earnings. Perhaps the Tesla jump will encourage purchases in other NDX stocks. The market volatility has drifted lower and our percentage of strong signals has fallen, these two items are very much tied together and their movement is cyclical.

Comments: October 22, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX came within a whisker of Thursday's high and fell from there. From a market structure point of view the market has a strong potential to go higher very soon, and there are expectations that something positive will happen on trade. There are however the realities that the tariffs are in effect weakening the economy as the tax (tariff) works its way through the system, Stock buy backs, which helped the market go higher as earnings growth slowed do work in reverse when there is a loss as the the loss per share becomes magnified and those companies will get beaten down harder. But so far so good.

Comments: October 21, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long" 60% Rydex 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The market made an extra spurt higher at the close and that was probably not a good thing, weakening the probabilities. With four of our programs still in the money market there does not seem to be much agreement on direction. Big thank you to our fire department as there was a 40 acre brush fire less than two miles from our location that they quickly contained. No lives lost, no structures burned.

Comments: October 18, 2019

Current position for Monday: SuperAlgo is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We have a "long" signal for SuperAlgo, but without sufficient broad support in terms of enough data points, we could not extend it to our other programs. It centers around the level of risk that we are willing to take. The markets peaked in late July. Our programs peaked in mid September. Neither the markets nor our programs have pulled back very far. It is currently a sluggish market and we will have to wait until the various market participants start to move in sync.

Comments: October 17, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Market influences continue to move in opposing ways. There seems to be a slight leaning to the down side for Friday, but it is not strong enough to take a position. Volatility is beginning to slip but remains normal. House Republicans joined forces with Democrats to censure Trump's Syria pull out and Mick Mulvaney confirmed that Trump's dealings with the Ukraine amounted to quid pro quo. Together it adds more fuel for an impeachment and more fears that the Democrats might drain the economy's punch bowl along with the swamp. Still the market remains near all time highs. Investors do not want to miss out on a trade deal announcement.

Comments: October 16, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Market influences are not moving together so it is best to be out. Waiting for more agreement.

Comments: October 15, 2019

Comments: October 14, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Monday was a reasonable day after three up-days in a row. As we get closer to the 2020 election we should see small bits of progress in the tariff situation but not solid gains till just prior to elections. This keeps the Fed from raising rates and gives Trump credit for negotiating a settlement to the tariff war. But with Trump anything can happen. If you have watched us for awhile you know that we only trade when we have a much better than average chance of a gain. For Tuesday the probabilities are too close to call and we moved into the money market.

Comments: October 11, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. By Thursday's close the 90 day tbiil rate was lower than the 10 year Tbond rate which had been inverted and now is back to normal, a good thing. This continued into Friday and improved some. Word from both the President and China confirm that the trade talks were going well, or at least well to the extent that additional tariffs set to begin in October will not be applied. Please realize that this does not make things better in the economy, since it was damaged with the first round of tariffs, it only keeps it from getting progressively worse. It is a start and additional rounds of negotiations should hopefully halt the other tariffs set to hit in December. The short term interest rates peaked in March of this year and continue to fall. Most likely this trend will continue as the current tariffs are sufficient to cause continuing damage to the economy so that the FED will be forced to cut their rates. Volatility remains normal, and climbing slowly. Our long/money market program and our conservative program are at weekly all time highs.

Comments: October 10, 2019

Comments: October 9, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. A surprisingly good day for the markets. Most likely based on some sense that there will be some progress with the tariffs. But you have to ask, If you were China would you want to make a deal with the current president of the United States. His record on holding his end of a bargain is dismal. In other news the Kurds in Syria were bombed today by Turkey. Possibly the two Trump towers in Istanbul were part of the negotiations. The Emoluments clauses of the US Constitution do not hold up when they are finally put to a test. Unfortunately these actions continue to have an impact on the markets with some wild trading in the after-market on more tariff rumors.

Comments: October 8, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Bad day for the markets but a good day for SuperAlgo, which gained over 3% today. We are holding our position another day. Good article by Matt Taibii in the Rolling Stone regarding credibility (or lack of) of the CIA whistle blower, regarding the Trump impeachment. I have always found Mr. Taibii's insights to be exceptionally valuable. There are many shades of gray in reality. It is best to check different view points. Powell's FED comments helped the markets make a partial recovery but that turned into a rout. The big players used the comments to unload their stocks. It looks like China does not believe the administration will honor its commitments so the trade talks are little more than a formality. The administration's actions regarding investing in China and blacklisting Chinese corporations seem specifically designed to make the trade talks fail with the effect of forcing the FED to cut rates, perhaps to zero or below. This is a major economically unsound action. You don't take a healthy economy, poison it with tariffs to make it collapse, then try to cure it with a new untried negative interest rate pill. I realize that I am a bit ahead of things here, but it looks like this is where it is headed.

Comments: October 7, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The markets moved both above and below Friday's close a number of times prior to settling lower. This was another instance where a string of two days of gains failed to go any farther. There is some pressure on the markets to stay in the topping zone. On the flip side I did have a number of fully long signals very recently after a long lull so that was encouraging. News on the trade talks turned negative and Mr. Trump tweeted about "in my great and unmatched wisdom", leading one to wonder how much longer the market can pretend that there is not a problem in leadership and hold up near the all time highs.

Comments: October 4, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The NDX has not had three up-days in a row for two months. This denotes a weak market where investors are quick to pull their money out rather than risk it further. An "up" Monday would be three in a row and the potential does look good. I am seeing some internal numbers that are encouraging and the volatility is almost back to normal which is good for our program. I expect 3 up-days, but 4 would be much harder. I do not expect to see another rate cut, and certainly don't see much sense for it. I also don't expect to see much resolved on the tariff front in the short term so it is still a day by day play, only now with some better volatility.

Comments: October 3, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We moved fully long for Friday. With a new round of tariff talks about to start Trump went live on TV and asked China to investigate the Bidens.... Still those of us living in the real world must continue to do what we do and hope that the impact from the reality show does no real harm. Stock market volatility continues to remain below the long term median but is now back in the normal range, interest rates are near long term lows. Trump continues to harp on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates even more. Lowering interest rates will not undo the negative effects of the tariffs on the economy, but will help keep the price of real estate from falling very far and could certainly help investors with large real estate holdings through refinancing and property values, do any of these investors come to mind?

Comments: October 2, 2019

Current position for Thursday: SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The after-market was gaining last night but started slipping early in the AM and tanked after the lower-than-expected job numbers were released. With this coming a day after the ISM index fell, the market could not hold on. In addition all manufactures showed declining year-over-year automobile sales for September. Prior to today's close I believed that investors still believed that the tariff problem would be solved with a treaty and the economy will recover, but... On the political side more cracks appeared with Pompeo caught lying about knowing about the Ukraine call. Now it looks like Trump, Barr, Giuliani and Pompeo are all involved in the cover-up. This would be bad enough, but for investors having our top government officials lying means we must also be concerned about market manipulation and racketeering, especially with regard to the timing of news releases on the tariffs. The new round of tariffs imposed on the EU late today may have been leaked prior to the market close and potentially was part of the reason for the drop. The worse part is that investors were waiting for the administration to end the tariffs to spur recovery, not to expand them to other countries, so with that hope mostly gone it is anybody's guess as to how much longer investors will support this market.

Comments: October 1, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We moved fully long for Wednesday, this is the first fully long position in about three weeks. Tuesday's market started strong and was up almost 1% when it was sent lower by the ISM (manufacturing index) report showing a level last seen in 2009. This was primarily due to the tariffs which has damaged, and continues to damage, the economy. The ISM number was bad but investors know that as an economy weakens the ISM numbers will fall, however investors are, I believe, looking past the current tariff problem and expecting a solution and improvements to the economy. Lets hope there isn't another lump of bad news, since although we do implications very well, we don't do tomorrow's actual news.

Comments: September 30, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Two of our programs have turned long but the majority remain in the money market. Trump's best bet on all fronts is to keep the economy afloat and that means resolving the trade conflict with China. At the very least he must appear that he is not making it worse. Judging by the market action it appears that investors believe that he will not be impeached because he can do no wrong with the Republican led senate. So far investors are cautious but not very concerned. Volatility remains low and that could enable the market to creep higher in another attempt at a new high if investors believe the tariffs will end.

Comments: September 27, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. So now the administration is talking about delisting Chinese companies from the US markets and limiting US investors from investing in Chinese companies in Chinese markets. (sounds like a Mnuchin idea). The theory would be to pull money from the emerging market sector with hope that it would go back into US stocks and boost our market in time for the elections in 2020, or alternately be used as a bargaining chip (threat) to coerce China into a better trade deal for the US. No one likes to be coerced. This government sponsored stock market manipulation would have some policy name attached to it. "Increasing national security", "protecting investors from corrupt foreign market manipulation", or some other nationalistic moniker. But the action has already caused a drop in share prices for the Chinese companies and will create a back lash with regards to trade talks that would send the US market down rather than up. Meanwhile we continue to get opposing signals causing us to remain in the money market, (which is working fine for us). SuperAlgo edged back up to +40% ytd.

Comments: September 26, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. It appears to be a certainty that if there is a vote, the House will vote to impeach the president. It also has not reached the point where enough Republicans are supporting the measure to upset the markets in a major way. More important is the trade war, and how that is going must first be verified by the Chinese before believing what is coming out of the administration. This makes trading on the trade news pretty much impossible. The current volatility is about one half the long term median, not the best condition for making money in the markets. This will change.

Comments: September 25, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. There was a small increase in volatility today but the market remains like a toddler and is easily pushed in one direction or another. Today's falling market was halted and propped up by Trump's announcement that the trade agreement could come sooner than later, flip flopping on his prior day's comments. But the market grabbed on to it anyway and gained back most of Tuesday's loss. So far we have managed to avoid most of the noise and our programs remain close to their all time highs. The downside is that this silliness (or market manipulation if I am less charitable) is preventing the market from making much progress in either direction and will probably continue for a number of weeks until it is overwhelmed by reality. .

Comments: September 24, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Today's drop helped pull the recent dead volatility off the floor. So that's good. The drop was encouraged by the president's anti-China remarks at the UN and the anti-Trump impeachment inquiry. With troops going to Saudi Arabia, Impeachment proceedings looming, real estate markets stalled and the 22,000 employee, 178 year old company Thomas Cook collapsed, all over the past few days, the fact is the market is holding up very well. It appears that investors have not made a decision as to market direction as this market dances close to all time highs. We found the Market Structure at the same market level and behaving in the same manner last year at this time, volatility was also very low. It did not end well as the NDX lost almost 14% over the next two months. Often the reverse happens under similar conditions and the markets go higher, which is why it it much better to stay alert and go day by day.

Comments: September 23, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Volatility has dried up allowing the market to be more easily influenced. Most likely direction of Tuesday is higher. Munchin claims he asked the China trade delegation to cancel a scheduled farm tour trip. Trump did not know. None of this makes sense. And it took till Monday for Munchin to even mention it. So the markets flattened out on Monday not knowing what to believe in regards to tariffs.

Comments: September 20, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. It appears that the China trade talks have fallen apart...again. If true there should be more carry over on Monday as indicated by our negative signal. The drop Friday gave our program its worst week since early May, it has had an excellent run and it was time to see some kind of a pause or dip. The low volatility makes it even more likely. The good news is that today's drop helped increase the volatility and that acts to improve our reliability. A self righting system.

Comments: September 19, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Very small up-tick in the markets today. We have a minor "long" signal for Friday. Volatility is now less than half of normal and although that is somewhat positive for the markets, it is not helpful for our signals which prefer more volatility. The NDX is now less than 1.5% away from its all time closing high which it achieved nearly two months ago. Our Market Structure is at its highest level and that means to me that there will be enough energy available to reach the old high. (The gas tank is full.)

Comments: September 18, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. The market fell and recovered closing off very slightly. The Fed cut rates but that did not encourage investors. Rate cuts won't do much at this level. Tariffs are key as FedEX expressed as its stock price fell almost 13% on lower earnings and guidance. Losing Amazon also cost FedEX. Probably more important for the market was that overnight short term rates touched 10% before settling down on Tuesday night. This is the first time the Fed had to step in since 2008. Is this a glitch or the start of another trauma in the markets?

Comments: September 17, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Today the news was that the refinery should be back in full production soon. The news combined with the expectation of a drop in interest rates pushed the market moderately higher. We moved back to the money market. The lower volatility allows the news to more easily overpower the market. I expect that further progress will be slow for awhile until we see the volatility improve. It also means that any pull back should be mild.

Comments: September 16, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. We took a minor short position for Tuesday. The disruption in oil production and rising oil prices did not cause that much of a concern in the stock market on Monday so there may be a bit more down side for Tuesday as investors start to consider how easy it is for a few drones to cause major disruption. Certainly whoever was behind the attack is encouraged and so are multiple other terrorist organizations.

Comments: September 13, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. This was the case of the rotten Apple spoiling the bunch. Goldman said Apple earnings would suffer from the price cuts on Apple TV and the stock went lower spilling over into the NDX where it plays a large part. Other than that things are starting to look better. Probabilities are looking good for Monday and there is a good chance we will see some positive price movement at the beginning of the week. Overall our programs show gains in 16 of the past 18 weeks. These programs vary in terms of risk and none move lock step with the market so they offer a great way to diversify. Please note we are now including the S&P 500 as well as the NDX 100 in our ytd weekly returns table.

Comments: September 12, 2019

Current position for Friday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The market ran out of steam near the close and gave up about half its earlier gains. Mild chance of more upside but only our SuperAlgo program is engaged. Volatility remains calm, traders are relieved.

Comments: September 11, 2019

Comments: September 10, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Our program's signal was unsteady and components were conflicted, so we remain in the money market. Volatility is now on the low side of normal. I expect to see the market make another run higher soon, as our various indicators are building strength. Probably some market relief was generated from John Bolton's leaving the administration as national security advisor. Word from China is that they were relieved also, and that could help tariff talks.

Comments: September 9, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. I continue to work on extracting tradable data from our money market days. Good progress has been made and I am near completion. This will result in some additional tradable days for us. For Tuesday we are in the money market but leaning negative, these neutral conditions can more easily be moved by news.

Comments: September 6, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. This was a positive week for the markets as hope was rekindled for repairing the tariff damage to the US and the Global economy, and volatility returned to normal. The tariff situation will keep a lid on how far the market will go to the upside, but if allowed to continue the markets will slide back down and go lower. The economy seems to be in a balance, slow growth with the job numbers hanging on but also with slow economic deterioration. All our programs are doing well with our SuperAlgo program closing the week up over 43% year to date.

Comments: September 5, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program and Anticipatory Trend programs are 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The market continued its romp and we remained mostly long into Friday. We did move our Anticipatory Trend program back into the money market. Looking at the charts the NDX broke free of its short term trading range and could have a bit more to go. Our probabilities are balanced but other factors are calling for more upside so we remain engaged but not enthusiastic for Friday.

Comments: September 4, 2019

Comments: September 3, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program and Anticipatory Trend programs are 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The market reacted to the announcement that manufacturing is contracting with the NDX giving up over 1%. We have a somewhat weak buy signal and have gone partially long. Nothing new in the tariff world and that is helpful. Volatility is running at a long term normal pace. Our Market Structure level is in a positive mode which (without the tariff problem) would indicate upward pressure on the markets.

Comments: August 30, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Without a US comment on China's latest moderate stand on tariffs, investors pulled back, waiting for more news to go forward. Not a lot to give us direction right here so we wait. The current market movement is being totally dominated by tariff buzz.

Comments: August 29, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. News from China is that they do not want to escalate the trade war and are not putting on new tariffs. So although Trump will call this a victory, for now, but as we all know no one likes being bullied and this will not end well in the future regardless of which administration is in charge. Our program is reading these dips and spikes and has done very well in keeping a low profile. For now five of our six programs closed at new all-time weekly highs and our sixth program is less than 1% away from its all-time weekly high.

Comments: August 28, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. We took the small gain and ran back to the safety of the money market. Probabilities look very flat. The level of volatility is slightly above the long term average and ten year interest rates are exceptionally low. We will wait.

Comments: August 27, 2019

Comments: August 26, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo is Long: 100% RYDEX Ndx100 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. According to my sources there was no call from China to resume the talks and this was just one more attempt by Mr. Trump to keep the markets from falling apart after another tweeting blunder. Hopefully the effect will carry over another day and we can ride the markets a bit higher. The past week while we spent most of the time in the money market I was busy working on improving our already well behaved anticipatory trend program. 2 2/3 years of a 22.2% compound annual return (less 1% annual fees) with low market exposure. The adjustments will be most helpful under lower volatility conditions where they were most needed and they will be implemented this week.

Comments: August 23, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. I will repeat the comment I made yesterday. "We stay out of the market unless we have a clear indication of market direction. It does not make any sense to be in the market and have your money at risk unless you have a good chance of making money so unless the probabilities are clearly in our favor we stay in the money market." That turned out to be excellent advise as the NDX fell over 3%. But we can, for awhile, look at the good side. The S&P 500 and the NDX 100 remain substantially higher for the year and the economy continues to move along. The indices remain above their August 5th short term low. But lets be clear about the future. In a normal recession the economy swings into a deflationary mode where prices fall, and that drop in prices tends to ease the way down for people who were forced out of work or saw their wages decline. But now with tariffs in place, we have the worse of two worlds. Wages will fall but prices will go higher because of tariffs. Lower interest rates will not be able to simulate the economy enough to compensate for the loss of jobs or the higher costs from tariffs. With regard to the stock market we see the volatility climbing again but our indicators are still unclear and we remain in the money market. An opportunity should come soon, direction unknown.

Comments: August 22, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. We had a similar "money market" type week just about two months ago. We stay out of the market unless we have a clear indication of market direction. It does not make any sense to be in the market and have your money at risk unless you have a good chance of making money so unless the probabilities are clearly in our favor we stay in the money market. Volatility remains above average, but it is falling which indicates a reduction in pessimism.

Comments: August 21, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Recent market movements are stronger than what we are expecting and the market is holding up quite well. We will just step through this and remain in the money market another day.

Comments: August 20, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. We moved full out of the market. Our Market Structure Level started to decline, which is normally a good sign, was not a strong enough influence on our signal which turned fully neutral. Volatility is moving back to normal and we do not see any clear direction ahead. But that could change tomorrow.

Comments: August 19, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo is Long: 75% RYDEX Ndx100 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Their was little "real" news to move the markets on Monday but it made substantial gains higher anyway. For Tuesday only our SuperAlgo program is engaged. Market is stronger than what I was expecting. We will cautiously see how it plays out.

Comments: August 16, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The markets closed lower for the week as volatility kicked up. Our programs closed the week higher with overall gains in thirteen of the last fourteen weeks. The market Structure Level is fully long and ready for another leg higher but other indicators are saying that there is probably another leg down before the jump. Last September we had similar conditions and we did not get the bounce higher. It is all about the probabilities and that means anything can happen, it is just that some movements are more likely than other movements so that over the long term it is best to align, each time, with the most likely outcome. We step through it one day at a time because it provides higher returns and limits the risk of holding on during a long decline.

Comments: August 15, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 28% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 45% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Our signal switched sides and is now a "partially long and reduced exposure" signal. Volatility continues above average. The ten year note rate fell again. The current interest rate environment is in an inflationary mode and is somewhat similar to the conditions we saw back in 2007 except back then the rates were much higher at around 5%. Low rates indicate that there is more money available for lending than borrowers looking to borrow. Investors feel that treasuries are the safest place to invest even while the stock market goes higher. When money goes into long term treasuries it pushes down the yields. Credit card stocks like Visa can borrow at cheap rates and lend at high rates without the worry of being in a recession where their clients could lose the ability to repay their cards. The stock has done well under these current conditions. Real estate also benefits from the low rate but is not quite in the same place, as home prices have been climbing for some time and could be vulnerable to a correction. A recession would put double pressure on the borrower where they could lose their job while their house could also go under water. But so far that is not happening and mortgages are not behind in payments and jobs continue to be available. Our Market Structure level is high and as it falls we should see good market gains, but we may still have to wait a bit. I don't think the current decline is over.

Comments: August 14, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 56% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 45% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 45% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. The drop started a day early. We moved fully short at the close and also reduced our exposure as the volatility moved higher. Historically as volatility increases our signals become more reliable, while at the same time the increased volatility will make incorrect calls more dangerous. If there were no concerns for the size of our draw-downs we would just put the pedal to the floor and never limit our trading size, but in the real world we don't like to see large pull backs. I prefer to have a more even path to profits. The two year rate going higher than the ten year should not have been a surprise as the 90 day bills had already moved higher months ago. There as some things that are not addressed in the economy. Some pockets of inflation have been left uncontained. When you add some tariffs to the areas that were doing well, like clothing and food, things get wonky. In the cities land prices impact rents and have boosted the number of homeless beyond what would be expected in a strong economy. Health care and education costs round out the problems. We already have low interest rates, so dropping the rates won't do very much but having more money in the hands of the masses, who spend almost everything they earn, would.

Comments: August 13, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We got lucky, as Trump decided to delay some tariffs the same time we were fully long. For Wednesday we are reducing our market exposure but remaining overall partially long. Our Market Structure Level is now fully positive and that should mean that good things are coming soon for the market. Still we will have to overcome some short term negatives that continue to threaten the markets later this week and probably into next week. As of today our SuperAlgo program is up over +40% ytd.

Comments: August 12, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2X fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The market dropped over 1% for another day. We turned fully long for Tuesday. The volatility has increased to a point that we trimmed our exposure on our conservative position to 80% from 100% on the 1x long program. The goal of the conservative program is to provide returns that far exceed that of T Bills with much less market exposure than the NDX. It is only in the market when the probability of success is very high and it has a very positive track record of accomplishing its goal. It will also go selectively partially short on occasion. The current volatility is high enough to provide good size daily changes without being so extreme as to be dangerous. Our Market Structure level has become more positive, a good thing. Looking out in time I expect to see a brief turn higher for a day or two followed by a continued down side that could last into the early part of next week. Ending the tariffs and fully recovering from the damage of those tariffs seems less likely at this point in time but that could change. What is best for the "American" economy, what is best for the stock market and what is best for the population is unfortunately three different things, they overlap, but are different. Finding a leader that can balance the three will not be easy.

Comments: August 9, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. Conditions are slightly improved for Monday but our signal remains neutral. The S&P and NDX slipped on Friday and closed down for the week. Our SuperAlgo program gained +8.45% this week. A little extra volatility provides a large boost but too much volatility can be dangerous, and we do reduce our exposure to compensate for those conditions. Our Market Structure level has climbed past the transition zone and is now fully positive. This is overall the most conducive area for strong stock markets so if we see a settling in this area another move to new highs should be coming. For now we step through the topping format of the first bounce from Monday's low.

Comments: August 8, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. The markets rallied mostly on news that China's exports grew year over year. Good for the global economy. We moved into the money markets at the close as our signal flattened. This has been a very good week for our programs with our SuperAlgo now up over 37% year to date. The NDX is also doing well, having recovered from the drop earlier this week and is now up 22% year to date. Interest rates remain very low and the volatility slightly above average and climbing. This is very good for our programs as it makes the markets easier to read. Our programs have shown overall gains in 12 of the past 13 weeks.

Comments: August 7, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We remain overall long but have reduced our exposure in most programs. Our Market Structure level climbed again but is still in the transition zone. Interest rates fell again with ten year notes yielding only 1.68%. There could be some market choppiness with perhaps a leaning to the upside over the next few days as market participants grope with probable market direction after the steep drop. Retail continues to get hurt as 7,000 store closures have been announced so far this year with an expected 5,000 more to come by year end. (within minutes of writing this Pizza hut announced 500 store closings). There are secondary effects to these closures. They leave empty store fronts and the reduced number of stores open make for less interesting destinations. This reduces trips to the locations. More than likely it reduces the number of miles driven and the number of bus and train (subway) trips. On the plus side it probably increases the viewership of companies like NetFlix and reduces gas consumption. Also news from China is that there will probably not be any more tariff meetings in the near future because of Trump's bullying effect on negotiations.

Comments: August 6, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. After six days the market turned higher. So far our programs are doing very well with three programs hitting new all time highs today. For Wednesday we increased our exposure and moved fully long. The volatility is now just slightly above the long term median with interest rates very low. Our Market Structure level moved into the transition zone and is now slightly positive, if it were to turn fully positive and stay there it would be a very good sign for the market. At this point we could see extended market moves in either direction. I expect to see more down side around mid month as the market tests the recent bottom. Nothing registered on our bottom indicator which gave us a signal on June 3 and before that it rang from December 19th to the 24th. Now without the signal, it is harder to tell if we hit a short term bottom. For now it looks like a second up-day is coming on Wednesday.

Comments: August 5, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Our more aggressive programs have turned partially long. (SuperAlgo turned fully long.) The tariff problems were magnified today, it looks like China will not buy our farm products, and the Yuan was allowed to float, further devaluing that currency. This is in response to the new tariffs. With crumbling support for his tariff policy Trump's attempt to garner additional political support by rallying his base's baser instincts backfired as two mass shootings (one with a white supremacist manifesto) is moving the moderate voters to the opposition and further hurting his agenda. The market has now fallen six days in a row, the NDX fell 7.5% in that time and Monday's fall was the largest since December 3rd of last year.

Comments: August 2, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. Monday is a difficult call as we have too few similar conditions to be reliable. The NDX has gone down 5 days in a row and is showing some other signs of being over sold, which when taken together, often point to a reversal. On the other side of this coin our signal is looking for more trauma. It is wiser to let this trade pass. Five of our six programs are at all time highs while our Long/Moneymarket program was able to avoid most of the pull pack. Our SuperAlgo program, which had a slow start this year after being up over +118% last year, is once again ahead of the NDX and up +24.8% ytd. Volatility remains below the median long term level but is not ultra-low any more. Ten year notes are now below 2% and that should help lower mortgage rates and help keep the real estate market alive a bit longer. The economy should be able to sustain the latest round of tariffs but each additional act of hostility makes it more difficult. Remember the driving force behind these tariffs is a man who had taken his own companies bankrupt six different times.

Comments: August 1, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. At about 2pm East coast time Trump tweeted that a 10% tariff will be added to an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports. This sent the NDX from a plus 1,75% to a negative .60% by the close. These tariffs are a tax on the American people who consume the imports that are individual products or components of products that we all buy. This tax on all of us will help pay for his tax cuts. Another case of redistribution of capital from the masses into the hands of high wealth individuals. The sad part is that the actual poor in this country who depend on the dollar store imports for food and products will be hurt the most. Perhaps it was best that this type of market manipulation was done while the market was up nearly 2% because if it was done after the close it would most likely have sent the markets down a couple of percent on Friday with perhaps an even greater drop on Monday as often Monday follows Friday's direction. But we will have to wait to see how this plays out. Our signal turned negative very early this morning and stayed negative into the close so we are not reacting to the late-in-the-day drop, there are other elements at play here.

Comments: July 31, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Investors were hoping for good news toward tariff elimination but got the 1/4 percent rate cut consolation prize instead. We made good gains on the drop since we were in the inverse funds on Wednesday. The rate cut should help keep mortgage rates low and that will keep the boom going. Our programs expect the markets to go higher on Thursday and we moved fully long. I am happy for the small nudge towards higher volatility. From what I am getting out of China is that the tariff talks were constructive and both sides will continue to work towards making progress during August

Comments: July 30, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. We remain in the trickier low volatility condition where the slightest news can swing the markets and Apple beat on earnings after the close so I expect a jump in the NDX on Wednesday. On the other side Trump says China isn't buy our farm products and was negative on progress.

Comments: July 29, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Our more aggressive programs have now evolved to include more trades in low volatility markets. The trade for Tuesday was already positive and did not need the additional help. Tuesday brings the first day of the tariff meeting and over the past few weeks the Chinese have been busy initiating purchases of our farm products so we might get some tweets to that effect coming out of the Trump team. This would appear as new good news and should help push the market higher on Tuesday. But it was not a consideration in our program's upward facing decision. Volatility remains low and within the range that could be helped by the new program additions.

Comments: July 26, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. For the past five weeks the market volatility has been below normal. We spend more time in the money market under low volatility conditions. Combining the smaller price movements that define low volatility, with the fewer active trading days, causes us to have lower returns during these periods. So my focus this year has been on improving our low-vol returns while maintaining our attention to limiting risk. I expect to have this implemented by Monday and it will only affect our money market cases, meaning we will spend a little more time in the markets. Our Conservative program and our Anticipatory Trend program will not be impacted. I would not be surprised to see a pull back on Monday unless there is more good news regarding the tariffs.

Comments: July 25, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Alphabet earnings beat estimates and shares ran up about 9% after the close. We moved fully into the money market. Today's downturn ended our programs' streak of 10 consecutive winning weeks.

Comments: July 24, 2019

Comments: July 23, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Today was all about the China tariffs. For the past few days news was coming out of China regarding arrangements the Chinese were making to purchase soybeans and how the meeting was coming together. Today it became more public knowledge. We did not take advantage of it because our methods do not use the news. After the close more news, this time sending the NDX lower as Trump/Barr sent the DOJ after Big Tech over anti-competitive concerns.

Comments: July 22, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX recovered all of Friday's decline. Market fundamentals are in good enough shape as to not need stimulus. Overall housing prices are holding, mortgage defaults are at abnormally low levels, interest rates and volatility are very low. There is no imminent danger and our GDP continues to climb. The market has done very well this year and a pause would be expected but I do not see a sharp decline. We are waiting for a more forceful signal to draw us back in.

Comments: July 19, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX fell as small bits of news and opinion can easily push around low volatility markets. We remain in the money market. The drop was not quite -1% and more will be needed to generate the amount of fear necessary to raise the volatility. We continue to look for opportunity.

Comments: July 18, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Small gain in the NDX after a down morning allowed us to close out our tenth consecutive overall gain for our programs. Our SuperAlgo missed out by a small amount but remains up 21.6% ytd. The small daily changes (low volatility) slow progress, but it is all part of the long term process. I expect to hobble along for awhile while awaiting the return to higher volatility.

Comments: July 17, 2019

Comments: July 16, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Yesterday's comments are below, I wrote them and for some reason did not post them. We spent the day in the money market as the NDX fell 1/2% and for Wednesday we moved partially long. Some of our signal components have been out of step but we continue to make progress. Having some components out of step is more likely under low volatility conditions. The lower corporate tax rate should help earnings of reporting companies keeping this rally alive.

Comments: July 15, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Small gain in the NDX on Monday. We cleared out all our positions and are waiting for a clearer signal. The low volatility makes it trickier to maneuver but not impossible. Money flow is positive, volatility is positive and interest rates are positive, some danger in bad earnings reports but overall markets should go higher.

Comments: July 12, 2019

Comments: July 11, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX fell a small amount as the S&P climbed. We moved all programs into the money market as the volatility and demand for stocks seems to have temporarily dried up. The 90 day tbill rate fell below the 10 year note yield for the first time since May. Low volatility and low interest rates make for happy investors. We should see more upside next week as a more positive money flow should help push stocks higher. We closed out our week early and now show 9 consecutive weeks of gains for most of our programs. Our conservative program was in the money market all this week.

Comments: July 10, 2019

Comments: July 9, 2019

Comments: July 8, 2019

Comments: July 5, 2019

Comments: July 3, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Good week for us our SuperAlgo program has now tripled from it initial starting value just prior to the 2016 elections little more than two and a half years ago. It is up over 20% ytd. All our programs except for our most conservative one are up double digits. I expect the nationalist flavor of the 4th of July will carry over into more stock buying on the 5th. Most of the indexes are hitting new highs so there is a question of a double top. For now I expect the upside to continue for at least a short while.

Comments: July 2, 2019

Comments: July 1, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market . SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market . We moved our Anticipatory trend program to the money market and we held all other positions. Our signal remains long but has weakened some. The upside probability for the NDX has improved and the expected gain has fallen. The response to the hold on tariffs was positive but weaker than previous moves under similar conditions, But that is something to expect. Volatility is low, interest rates are also low so more creeping gains are anticipated. I commend Mr. Trump for opening dialog with our "enemies". War, economic or military, is a giant tax on all involved. World peace improves the standard of living for all populations.

Comments: June 28, 2019

Comments: June 27, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. We moved to the money market closing our week out early. After six days in the money market we did a hit-and-run, providing us with our seventh straight weekly gain. With the G20 starting on Friday it is not a good time to be in the market and our signal agreed.

Comments: June 26, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. After six days in the money market we have moved fully long. Bernie Sanders has a number of good suggestions that I believe would improve the well being of the population, but his suggestion to tax stock market transactions is not one of them. Taxing transactions is the same as putting tariffs on them, and tariffs are always bad. It would also set the financial community back to the era of high trading costs, On the other hand Forbes said there were 4.1 Billion Robo calls made in May 2018. Robo calls are a big drain on US productivity. A five cent tax per call would bring in over $200 million a month and everyone would be happy about that.

Comments: June 25, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Tuesday brought a more volatile day to what has be a steady decline in volatility in recent weeks.

We don't need a rate cut, we do need an end to the tariffs and a less hostile interaction with other countries so that business is not hampered. And although I am strongly in favor of free education, since it provides strong economic benefits to society, I do not think that eliminating "all" existing student debt is a good thing. Eliminating a fixed amount of debt per student could be very beneficial and greatly reducing the interest rates on that debt would be good. Most problems have solutions but it takes a lot of effort to find the unintended consequences of actions prior to committing to their solution.

I expect that we will see some long or short signals very soon. We have spent the last five days in the money market and the S&P is just where we left it while the NDX is a bit lower.

Comments: June 24, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Volatility continues to drop and cloud our vision. Small changes means low volatility and those changes induce small trends which can more easily be overrun by blips of minor news. While larger changes produce stronger trends that generally continue regardless of the noise. We have another neutral day for Tuesday as Monday slipped less than a tenth of a percent.

Comments: June 21, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. This past week I focused on reducing some of our money market signals and turning them into "long" or "short" positions. I was able to do that with a little less than 20% of the existing money market signals. This should mean about one less money-market signal a month. The small increase in market exposure is expected to bring enhanced returns. Our conservative program and Anticipatory trend program will not be affected by the change. And except for the SuperAlgo program which is always leveraged the new signals will not use leverage with the remaining programs. Our programs continue to evolve which is what you should expect from a market forecasting system.

Comments: June 20, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. The drop in volatility can often help the market go higher in general, but it also limits our ability to read it, giving us a third day in the money market. Going long under these conditions is not a satisfactory solution since money market days often go lower. We will wait it out and profit when we can do it with greater safety.

Comments: June 19, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. As expected the FED left interest rates alone. There really is no current reason to lower interest rates. The economy is holding up, the delinquency rates on single family residential mortgages continue to decline. So people are earning enough to pay their mortgages unlike 2006 when the economic collapse really started last time. And interest rates are relatively low already. Tariff induced inflation my hit at any time, this would be escalated by a currency war as a weak dollar will cause imported prices to rise. Abrasive international policies could start a real war and that would turn every thing upside down. For now we still have a calm. This is the sixth week in a row that our programs have shown substantial gains, our Market Structure level has stalled one click below even and unless we see greater volatility we could see slower going for awhile going forward.

Comments: June 18, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. According to the Global times Trump called Xi Jinping and set up a meeting at the G20. The markets crept up prior to release of the meeting news and then pushed higher peaking early in the day. Our Signal turned neutral and we moved to the money market. China can't be too happy about the bullying so I do not expect much to happen right away. Today's jump helps improve volatility which had recently fallen.

Comments: June 17, 2019

Comments: June 14, 2019

Current position for Monday: SuperAlgo is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All programs are 100% money market. The market climbed last Monday then leveled off for the rest of the week. I am concerned that our Market Structure level is back to one step below even and that the market changes over the past four days have been very small. This is causing the volatility to fall and if it continues will dampen our returns. For the week our most conservative program lost a tenth of a percent, our long only program was in the money market and our other four programs all had gains. Overall our programs have shown good gains in each of the past five weeks under normal volatility levels and we have had an excellent second quarter (with two weeks left). Last week our home page had our ytd returns for our Primary and Hot Money programs reversed, it is now fixed. Relative Interest rates remain a negative while the interest rates themselves are low enough to be a stimulant to business, kind of a paradox.

Comments: June 13, 2019

Comments: June 12, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. We expanded our short position for Thursday as our signal became more negative. Volatility is slightly elevated, Interest rates continue to indicate economic problems even as the low rates are helping the housing market. Tariffs add to the insanity and can cause long term damage to international relations which can cause a long term downturn. But we still look just one day into the future.

Comments: June 11, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program 37.5% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We moved partially short at the close. The NDX gained six days in a row, but I do not consider it over bought. It is now more than 4% below the May high. In the early stage of a bull market stocks will jump at the slightest beat in earnings while in the late stage any bit of missing estimates will send them lower. Dave and Busters missed revenue expectations by 2% and the stock plunged 17% in the aftermarket.

Comments: June 10, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Maybe there is more coming behind the Mexico deal, but they aren't telling me. The market was up more than expected and I don't have a reason for it. Conditions remain the same for Tuesday and we remain in the money market. Volatility is only slightly elevated, interest rate configuration is negative. We will wait for a clearer signal.

Comments: June 7, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The job numbers are telling us that the economy is holding on, but no longer robust. Investors seem to love this as they have hopes that the Fed will lower rather than raise rates. Investing using these economic signs is difficult as one would think that they would rather bet on a healthy athlete that doesn't need drugs than an exhausted on that may get a new drug. But it does not matter to us because we use only numbers for our algorithms and not sound bites. This was an excellent week for us and all programs are making money and now projecting double digit returns for the year. Monday has enough of a mixed signal that it most likely will be easily swayed by any news. *additional comments 6/9/19: The NDX closed on Friday already up almost 2.5% above the day prior to the announcement of Mexico tariffs. The canceling of tariffs could have been already known, so do not expect much, if any jump on Monday. Futures opened up about .75% and as of this note they are up .6%.

Comments: June 6, 2019

Comments: June 5, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. We moved from fully long to fully short for Thursday. ADP reported a very low new jobs number so the government numbers will probably also be low. In the futures market oil fell about 3%, wheat did the same, while coffee fell over 6%. These are large drops and generally reflect either an over supply of product, drop in demand or a trading craze and it could carry over to the stock market.

Comments: June 4, 2019

Comments: June 3, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market . SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. Google, FaceBook and Amazon were forced lower as all of a sudden everyone became aware of their "social" and monopoly problems. Most of those momentum players already got out or have gone short. On the flip side the URE and HGX real estate related indices gained as ten year bond yields dropped hard. Interest rates are responding to inflation caused by tariffs, and calling for a recession from a very low position (rates are already low). The low ten year notes are helping mortgage rates and in most of the country housing prices continue to have room to grow. We got an NDX bottom signal today and it looks good for at least a one day bounce.

Comments: May 31, 2019

Current position for Monday: Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. In response to Trump's vow to hit Mexico with a 5% and escalating tariff the markets fell. Former president of General Motors and Secretary of Defense Charles Wilson once said "What is good for our country is good for General Motors and vice versa.". GM fell -4.25% today. Tariffs are not good for anybody, person, company or country. We are starting to get signs of an oversold nature and that should mean a bounce at any time. Today's drop has increased volatility which is good for our programs.

Comments: May 30, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Interest rates are moving into a deeper inflationary mode, negative for the markets, and volatility is lessening which is positive. Thursday's gain lessened the upside pressure on the market making it easier to go lower. And we have a neutral signal so we moved back to the money market. Our Market Structure level is one step below neutral, and with lower volatility makes the market more open to random disruptions in either direction.

Comments: May 29, 2019

Comments: May 28, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX took a long time to fall as its strong opening faded over the day. We closed out our short positions and moved to the money market. News from Wells Fargo regarding China's decreasing use of diesel fuel over the past year and a half shows a slowdown in China that is not reflected in the governments posted numbers. So perhaps Mr Trump is expecting the tariffs will escalate this decline and make China more willing to deal. Here, interest rates are in a recessionary mode and that continues to lean on the market. Not much room for joy,

Comments: May 24, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. The NDX followed through to the upside early in the day but could not hold into the closed and closed a bit lower. We moved fully short for Monday. Our program components are in agreement for a Tuesday drop in the absence of substantive positive news and that does not look like it will come from China but may be tweeted from the treasury or the president to hold up the markets, but with both the S&P and the Dow up today the tweets might be saved for more scary market conditions.

Comments: May 23, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. The markets are adjusting for the new normal of higher prices (on goods) across the board. Inflation due to tariffs. Our signal for Friday is mixed so we moved to the money market, but there could be some upside follow through from the last hour of trading off of Thursday's lows.

Comments: May 22, 2019

Comments: May 21, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. With the volatility increasing to a more readable level we managed to correctly call the past five days and show gains of 12.97% in SuperAlgo. All our programs are now at all time highs. We have a mixed signal for Wednesday and have moved to the money market. Based on money flow alone it appears that the markets will trend lower over the next week.

Comments: May 20, 2019

Comments: May 17, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. We are holding our short position another day. With Huawei on the US "no buy" list China is moving forward with retaliation, and this will not end quickly. Thus the market fell and may very well continue to fall on Monday. The interest rate configuration continues to support the down side and volatility remains slightly above long term normal. Our program's have come out of the doldrums with significant gains over the past seven weeks.

Comments: May 16, 2019

Comments: May 15, 2019

Comments: May 14, 2019

Comments: May 13, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Trump's efforts to stem the market's fall by tweeting "he had not decided whether to put tariffs on an additional $325 Billion in Chinese goods" did little to curtail the market's drop and it closed close to its low for the day. Although large drops on Monday are often followed by sharp reversals on Tuesdays, this time the expectations are for more pain. Our Signal turned "short" but I chose to remain out a while longer as the market conditions change from calm to volatile and the tweet storms attempt to sway the traders. Tariffs are inflationary (since they raise prices) and current interest rates are firmly in an inflationary mode, bringing more negativity into the market. Higher volatility under these conditions should also bring more selling.

Comments: May 12, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The market closed slightly higher but gave an unstable signal near the close and we stayed out. Chinese media is suggesting that China won't play and would rather wait to see who wins in 2020. Trump plays for the ratings and is good at getting attention and that means everything said can, and mostly will, change. Long term depends on the final tariff situation.

Comments: May 9, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Down but not terrible on Thursday. We moved into the money market as our signal turned flat. I don't want to play the twitter game. On the positive side the economy is holding up pretty well and only pockets of the economy have been hurt by the tariffs (so far). On the negative side interest rates are in a position that has registered a slowing of the economy and down turn in the market. On the sidelines we have the threat and possible immediate implementation of additional tariffs and retaliation from China. Once the smoke clears we shall provide another long term update.

Comments: May 8, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market . SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. Wednesday's market fell apart near the close. We reduced our exposure for Thursday. The NY Times article on Trump taxes showing over a billion dollars of losses may have unnerved some investors. Either Trump is terrible at running a business with a billion dollar loss over ten years. Or he is very skilled at it and the losses are a sham, making him dishonest and a crook. Maybe it is a combination of both. Either way it is bad, and does not give one confidence that he can undo the damage he caused with the tariffs. This does not give one confidence in any of his appointees either. But perhaps there is another way to look at it that I haven't found. Most likely not. Interest rates remain in a poor relationship for the economy.

Comments: May 7, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We spent Tuesday in the money market as the NDX dropped nearly -3% then recovered some to end down almost -2%. We are looking for a rebound on Wednesday. Tariffs are bad on many levels and mostly act as a broad tax on the population, while providing the government with funds to use to give selective tax cuts to friends and donors. The recent market movement has increased the VIX and also increased the market volatility. This should be helpful to us as it makes the market more readable and less subject to less important news items. The interaction between long term and short term rates has soured again and has moved into the area where frequently the direction of stock prices is lower. Caution ahead.

Comments: May 6, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Most people know that negotiation by confrontation does not work for the long term, and strong personal relationships build trust and growth. For now we must deal with tariffs and tweets. The market was able to recover two thirds of its early loss from Sunday's Trump tweet regarding the tariff talks with China. We moved into the money market for Tuesday as the market regains its focus. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: May 3, 2019

Comments: May 2, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Once again early gains turned to a loss for the NDX. The market continues with small daily changes. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: May 1, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Unfortunately the markets pulled back from a nice early gain. AAPL was up over 6% which should have translated to a 0.7% gain in the NDX but the broad market pulled the NDX lower. The market continues with small changes. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 30, 2019

Comments: April 29, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. The market continues to gain under these low volatility conditions. We moved to the sidelines for a day as our probabilities flattened. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 26, 2019

Current position for Monday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The NDX closed higher after spending the day lower. We held our partial long position. Our Market Structure Level is once again just below neutral, where it spent a good part of this year. Volatility remains very low. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 25, 2019

Current position for Friday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. The market movement near the close showed weakness for Friday's expectations. AMZN earnings were excellent and beat expectations as revenue growth came in as expected. Intel beat revenue forecast but cut guidance and shares fell sharply in the aftermarket. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 24, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. The market started higher but gave way to a loss at the close. Low market volatility makes the market more susceptible to earnings volatility. FaceBook and Microsoft jumped after the close on their earnings release, sending the NDX futures higher. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 23, 2019

Comments: April 22, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Another small gain and now the market is neutral. Volatility remains exceptionally low. Earnings are now coming in and with such low volatility it is more like flipping a coin. We wait. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 18, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. Another small gain and now the market is neutral but leaning lower for Monday. Volatility is exceptionally low, less than all of last year. Market is at a top and waiting. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 17, 2019

Comments: April 16, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Another small gain in the NDX. Our signal was unstable near the close and ended flat. Volatility shrinks from an already low level. Market is close to the previous top, expectations lean lower for Wednesday. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 15, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Very small gain in the NDX after spending most of the day lower. Goldman Sax disappointed and helped send stocks lower. Volatility is now in the "very" low range. Our Market Structure Level seems stuck just below neutral where it has been a bit over 50% of the time this year. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 14, 2019

Comments: April 11, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program 37.5% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We have moved partially short. Volatility remains low and the Market Structure level moved to just below neutral. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 10, 2019*update

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Our signal is flat but the aftermarket is leaning higher. The interest rate configuration is becoming more negative for stocks. Both the S&P and NDX are approaching their August 2018 highs and it will be interesting to see if they can overcome that level with interest rates in the negative configuration. The markets will be closed next* Friday April 19. Rydex page said Friday but I missed the date. Sorry if I confused anyone. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 9, 2019

Comments: April 8, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX rebounded after an early fall but our signal turned neutral. Probabilities are slightly negative and volatility is now very low which usually helps support the market. The Interest rate relationships have improved somewhat. Overall mixed signals. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 5, 2019

Comments: April 4, 2019

Comments: April 3, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Markets pulled back from their highs but still put in good gains. We moved fully into the money markets as most indicators turned neutral. Interest rates remain in a dangerous area and the recent gains could cause some profit taking very soon, but there was enough strength at Wednesday's close to suggest one more up-day. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: April 2, 2019

Comments: April 1, 2019

Comments: March 31, 2019

Comments: March 28, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Small but positive outcome for the markets on Thursday. Nothing has really changed, volatility slowed a bit and the interest rates situation did not improve enough to matter. We remain in the money market. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 27, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Although the fall in interest rates is helping real estate by lowering the cost of mortgages it is (because of the relationship between the long and short term rates) is telling us a recession is near. When you add that our Market Structure level has remained negative it effects the stock market. We moved our Trend program to the money market at the close. Since the start of the year only 20% of our signals were strong enough to take full positions. Normally we have half our signals being strong. I expect it to return to normal soon. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 26, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The NDX opened higher went negative for a minute near the close then regained about 36% of the earlier gain. I believe the interest rates are putting the market in a bad position for substantial near term gains even though they remain relatively low and volatility remains on the low side. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 25, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. With most of the unknowns out of the picture the market is focused on interest rates and and that should drive the market lower near term. From our T-index we see that we have moved from a helpful inflationary condition to a dangerous inflationary one. From our numbers the change took place on Thursday as the markets went higher. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 24, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. *Late post. We moved all programs to the money market at the close on Friday. Friday's drop could be attributed to all the reasons given in my prior post. The Mueller report response should be interesting. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 21, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. The markets put in an excellent performance especially considering that (1) the Fed's decision to hold rates indicates their fear that the economy remains weak, (2) FedEx's warning about lowered income from overseas because of a slowing world economy, (3) our Tbill rates gaining on the ten year notes indicating that we are close to recession levels, and (4) No improvement with China Tariffs. This is looking like blow-off behavior in the markets. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 20, 2019

Comments: March 19, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Not much has changed. The market's fear that democrats may win in 2020 may be lessening, as the young zealous progressives may be frightening off the independents. This could be part of the reason for the on going rally. Still waiting for important variables to align. Volatility remains low. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 18, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Still waiting for important variables to align. Low volatility supports a higher market. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 15, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. Overall volatility remains low but off the bottom. Waiting for important variables to align. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 14, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. I made some more minor changes to the program as I smoothed out the transition between a prior version and the current version. We picked up some gains this week as the volatility picked up. Thursday kind of reverted to the small change markets we have seen recently. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 13, 2019

Comments: March 12, 2019

Comments: March 11, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program 37.5% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The NDX gained over 2% on Monday. I am now looking for Tuesday pull back and we are partially short. Despite this one day move volatility remains very low, but I am starting to see some changes in the market internals and these will soon play out. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 8, 2019

Current position for Monday: SuperAlgo 100% Long Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Late post.

Comments: March 7, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. If you have followed my work for a number of years you will know that I am continuously looking to improve our programs. When we have downturns I search to see if it was something that I may have missed that could help us in the future. You will also recall my saying that our program prefers higher volatility conditions where our signals stand out over the noise. And you may have seen my comments on our Market Structure levels. After the last recession the market has become less volatile but picked up again for most of 2018. This year once again the volatility has declined. This is coupled with our Market Structure level being flat and upon investigation over our programs history these combined days accounted for dead periods in our forecast. In the past our money market position had taken care of about half of these cases, and today I was able to identify the other half. They were a bit hard to find since they did not occur prior to 2009 and only account for about 1% of our activity. Now that they are flagged the next step is to see if they can lead to a long or short forecast or will go straight to the money market. Either way we will have another program improvement. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 6, 2019

Comments: March 5, 2019

Comments: March 4, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. The NDX started off strong, then plunged and finally settled unchanged. Volatility remains very low. Our signal turned flat. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: March 1, 2019

Comments: February 28, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Volatility is now only about 25% of normal. We closed out our "short" SuperAlgo position and moved back to neutral. Friday is the first of the month and that should help the upside. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 27, 2019

Current position for Thursday: SuperAlgo 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 100 fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Daily market movements continue to shrink. This should get interesting real soon. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 26, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Another neutral signal, another small change day. The market is making progress each day while at the same time the volatility is shrinking. Something will soon disrupt these patterns. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 25, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Another neutral signal, another small change day. The administration keeps sending out bits of good news on the tariffs keeping this rally alive. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 22, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. The volatility has fallen significantly and the day to day variations are small and helpful to the market's climb. Our programs are lagging but most of that was the result of the first two days of the year and all but SuperAlgo have made some progress from that point. SuperAlgo has wider swings and is within its expected range. I expect more normal trading soon. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 21, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Economic data was not supportive. Between new orders of capital goods falling, housing sales below par and recently the percent unemployment climbing again made the recent run up suspect. Markets did not fall far and stayed within the sluggish daily moves we have seen recently. Our signal turned flat and we are in the money market and waiting. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 20, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. The Fed notes told a "wait and see" story and the market pulled back a bit but closed mostly higher with the NDX down just a little. We moved fully long except for the Anticipatory trend program which is neutral. The volatility is now only half normal and that is OK for now, but it limits the markets potential while it is just creeping along. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 19, 2019

Comments: February 15, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Calling a National Emergency where there clearly is none is terrible on the surface, but brilliant with regards to the China tariff negotiations. The Chinese now see Mr. Trump as a man who will let nothing stand in his way to get what he wants. Certainly there were better ways to achieve those goals, but that would take a more skillful man and none over the years has stepped up to the task. So it is what it is, and considering that the market is still climbing, interest rates have stopped climbing and the volatility is falling says to me that the tariffs will be eliminated which will help both economies and the recession will be pushed down the road. That does not necessarily mean the market will make new all time highs, we will have to wait for that as our own long term signal is still negative and leaning on neutral. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 14, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. Volatility continues to fall and we are now below the long time normal level, not a bad condition for buy and hold. Awaiting a stronger signal, market is hardly moving. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 13, 2019

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% money market. Small gain turned to a tiny one by the close on the NDX. Volatility remains about normal but falling. News is now leaning positive regarding the potential shutdown and China.tariffs. Our Market Structure level remains negative but only a step below neutral. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 12, 2019

Comments: February 11, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. It was a flat day. Investors are afraid to jump off in the wrong direction while the tariffs hold the market hostage. I can't see this market going anywhere until it is settled or leaked. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 8, 2019

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. The market had a strong recovery and the NDX managed to squeek out a small gain during the last few seconds. Our signal became more moderate as the market gained but closed leaning to the negative side. The Tariff issue still rules and keeps the market spooked. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 7, 2019

Comments: February 6, 2019

Comments: February 5, 2019

Comments: February 4, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The NDX gained, probably on expectations of GOOG earnings. They did beat on profits and revenue but the stock slipped 3% on the report after the close. We do not have a strong signal and only our SuperAlgo program is in the market at this time. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: February 1, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% money market. We slipped out of the market and are awaiting a stronger signal. Aside from being on the wrong side of the news the first two trading days in January our program continues to work very well. And we don't do news. Our Market Structure level has once again climbed back next to the neutral line and it is possible for it to turn long this coming week but not highly probable, we shall see. Earnings announcements should slow and that means less news to deal with, a good thing. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 31, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Our signal weakened, but remained "long" so we cut our exposure. By Friday's close we will shift back to trading the NDX. Volatility is moderate but starting to pick up again, still low enough to support rallies without too much worry. I expect to see the government shut down for a second time and continue to think it is a show for China to help with tariff negotiations. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 30, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. Apple and started it off last night doint better than expected and Boeing followed it up this morning with the Fed adding more fire later in the day. Still not increasing rates because things are getting worse is not the best of news. We don't do news and we don't like to follow large up-days so we will have to see how this works out, our program likes what it sees, and after the close FB jumped on an earnings surprise. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 29, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% money market. Our signal moved fully neutral and we stayed in the money market. Volatility is normal but bulls and bears seem to be too closely balanced to call a direction. We wait for a better opportunity. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 28, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% money market. Our signal move short at the close, too late to take a position. Caterpillar missed earnings estimates and fell over 9% while tech stock NVIDIA reduced guidance and fell nearly 14%. China is not buying as much and the tariffs have hurt. Trump's reopening government, a good thing since the shut down never should have happened is bad for Trump in the China negotiations. They saw him blink. We never got an "all clear" signal in our Market Structure level so the pressure remains on the market. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 25, 2019

Current position for Monday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% SPX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Market moved up on Friday as a bill to temporarily open government for three weeks without a wall, was set to pass and be signed by Trump. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 24, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Our signal moved to the short side. The volatility continues to fall as many expect a resolution to the tariffs. I am expecting the market to drift a bit lower on Friday. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 23, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Small gain for the indices as volatility falls to the lower part of the normal range. Our Anticipatory Trend joined the other programs to the upside giving us a more robust signal. Our Market Structure level which was sitting just below neutral moved back into the negative area, good for the short term but telling me that the markets may not have enough strength at this time to get to new index highs. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 22, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1X fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Only the SuperAlgo program was hit on Tuesday the rest were in the money market. Probabilities are stronger for Wednesday and all but our Anticipatory Trend program are fully long. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 18, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All other programs are 100% Money market. Volatility is now back to normal. Our Market Structure level is holding slightly negative. Our programs did well last week and I expect them to continue. With the normal volatility we have moved back to full exposure. The market is more than the economy alone, and it projects into the future which is why some people are puzzled when it turns down while automobile manufacturers have record sales. The Philly Housing index has established a small three month upswing on expectations that interest rates are at or near highs. That index peaked a year ago in January 2018. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 17, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 28.3% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We lightened our overall position going into Friday. Our Market Structure level is very close to turning positive, but we will have to wait to see if it does happen. Volatility is above average but falling. The government shutdown has disrupted travel and Delta CEO Ed Bastion said it has already cost Delta $25 Million is lost airfares from government workers and in addition it is holding up new aircraft certification. JP Morgan lowered its GDP first quarter estimate from 2.25% to 2% due to the shut down and the list of disruptions is extensive. There is collateral damage that will not be repaired even when the workers get their back pay. We move cautiously. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 16, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 56.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 56.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 60% Rydex S&P 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 45% Rydex S&P 2x Fund. We reversed our position and turned long. The market pulled back minutes before the close and weakened our signal to more of a "leaning long" from "fully long", too late to reduce the exposure on some of our programs but it did not turn "flat". We see volatility continue to slip as Wednesday's change in the NDX was nil. Fear is leaving the market for now and interest rates never reached a panic or even a real scare level. Still we do not have an all clear so stay cautious. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 15, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 56.25% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short 45% Inverse Rydex SPX 1x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short:37.5% Inverse Rydex SPX 2x Fund. Long/Money market program is 100% money market. Our signal turned short after three money market days. The market appeared to shake off bad news and go with the good news. This is the type of thing you see at the beginning of a bull market and after 10 years running I don't think that is the case. Still cautious we have reduced our exposure to 75% of normal as volatility is still above normal even as it falls. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 14, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% in the Money Market. For a third day we find ourselves in the Money Market . The last two days the market drifted lower. Probabilities are slightly better for Tuesday but still no solid signal. Volatility has fallen and that is a good sign for a continuation of the rally but our internals remain negative. Like always, we are going day by day. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 13, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% in the Money Market.* late post. We are holding the money market position. More in next post. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 10, 2019

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% in the Money Market. Investors bought the morning dip and sent the markets higher confident that the tariff problem would be resolved. For Friday the probabilities look more even. I believe what I said on January 2 regarding the wall and tariffs will hold. I don't believe the wall will be resolved prior to the resolution on China, very unfortunate for the government workers not being paid. Our program accuracy remains good with gains on six of our last ten SuperAlgo trades even though we took some lumps. A review of Hedge fund returns in Barrons for 2018 shows that our Hot Money and SuperAlgo programs outperformed the best they had listed. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 9, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long:37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is Long: 40% Rydex S&P 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 30% Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Our signal has swung to the long side and with the volatility about two times the long term normal we have reduced our exposure to half of our normal. Our Market Structure level has backed off after moving close to neutral and moved more negative. It was reported that last quarter that 72 S&P 500 companies issued earnings warnings vs half as many with positive guidance. Tariffs are the single most damaging thing effecting the stock market and the economy. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 8, 2019

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% in the Money Market. Trade talks were extended another day. As we saw today the expectations of a positive resolve is pushing the markets higher. The problem is that tariffs are a step function either go or no go with major implications for the economy and under these high volatility conditions could have an outsized impact for the markets over a single day, not our favorite. This type of thing does not happen very often and the last time I had to consider outside forces was with Brexit in 2016 about two and a half years ago. Internal to the US we have Sears close to bankruptcy, a day by day issue with about 50,000 jobs at stake initially and other longer term fall out. Corporate triple B bonds are another problem, with that group of bonds expanding while at the same time banks are getting out of the less secure bonds leaving them with fewer potential buyers. Still the US economy grinds on with tariffs the one thing that stands in the way of extending the bull market. Our Market Structure is negative but now very close to neutral. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 7, 2019

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short 30% Inverse Rydex SPX 1x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 25% Inverse Rydex SPX 2x Fund. Long/Money market program is 100% money market. It is very important to have a consistent method of investing and not be thrown off course by emotion. It is also important to adjust exposure under high volatility to generate more consistent returns over a long period of time and not get thrown off course by one or two days of exaggerated moves. This is not always easy to do but we try to link our exposure to volatility. Normal volatility for the NDX over its history is about 1% per day. Current volatility has jumped to over 2% per day. The current situation is also magnified due to the tariff situation which looks to be either make or break for the economy. Hopefully once the tariff situation is resolved we will be back to more normal trading as "boom" or "recession" do not matter under our methodology. See our long term view, no pass word needed.

Comments: January 4, 2019

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% in the Money Market. UGH, the Apple announcement hit us on Thursday and the higher than expected job numbers for December (with some added Powell comments) hit us on Friday. Adding to that news that the China trade talks will start on Monday pushed the markets higher. Since our program only detects the most probable market direction excluding news we can get beat up under strong adverse news items, good thing this does not happen too often and about as often the news is our friend. Odd thing about the job numbers is that they were associated with a rise in unemployment as more people were added to the workforce. Wages showed good gains in 2018 which could pressure the FED to continue to raise interest rates. Overall the market underpinnings remain negative but the chance for a continued near term gain on Monday is reasonable. See our long term view, no pass word needed

Comments: January 3, 2019

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 80% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 80% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short 48% Inverse Rydex SPX 1x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 40% Inverse Rydex SPX 2x Fund. Long/Money market program is 100% money market. The Apple announcement on Wednesday afternoon sent all the markets lower on Thursday. Apple closed down just shy of 10%. We were expecting the market to slide under its own accord starting Friday but Apple got it started early and may have taken some of the wind out of the drop. Thursday was a good example of how news can interfere with our signals. When news helps and aligns with our signals it adds an extra boost. So aside from any more news, the numbers look good for more down side. See our long term view, no pass word needed

Comments: January 2, 2019

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 30% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long:40% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 40% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Conservative program is 100% Money Market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money Market. I posted our annual returns for 2018 and our Hot Money program had its best year since inception with +54.5% it is also the second time in the program's seven year history that we have exceeded +50%. Our Primary program had its third best year out of thirteen at +40.7%. SuperAlgo finished its second full year and closed up +118.5%. The government shut down is now about more than the wall. China is watching Trump so Trump can't give in on the wall. He is trying to bluff China and the Democrats at the same time and finds himself up against a wall of his own making. The market looks like it is topping here and I expect it to start going lower by Friday. Our signal weakened for Thursday and we reduced our market exposure. *After the close and after writing this I noticed that AAPL dropped 7% in the aftermarket on a warning regarding first quarter results. That unfortunately will most likely start the expected drop one day early. Our charts will be updated for 2019 during the next few days. See our long term view, no pass word needed