Comments: December 31, 2010

Current position for Monday:  (1)Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)Long/money market program is 50% Long Rydex SPX500 2x Fund.  (3)New Long/Short program is 100% long Rydex NDX 1x fund.   For the New year we launched our third program. It trades either Long or Short and is unleveraged, this program is always in the market so it has the same amount of total exposure as the market. Like our second program, some of the components making up the program have been part of our Primary program and some are new.  Visits over the weekend to two different Macy's stores told the same tale. They seemed to have hired some good hard working people but they are understaffed. It was especially true in the shoe department where there was no one to go in the back to find shoe sizes.  The internet site was also suffering showing only two sizes of shoe available while some stores had many sizes. just no helpers.  Our refinancing at Citibank was even worse as 5 scheduled signings were postponed as I caught errors in the numbers. Overworking the lower level employees while the fat cats on top take home the cash isn't working Citi...wake up. What I see from this is a reluctance of corporations to hire even needed employees.  They will be scrambling if and when we get a real local rebound.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 30, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 50% long Rydex NDX 2x fund.  We have a rare set of positions for the last day of the year with our primary program short and the new program long.  Each uses a different set of algorithms so it is not unexpected, especially with the small changes we have been seeing recently. I have funded a third program at Rydex and starting tomorrow I will start trading it for the new year. The third program is either long or short, it  never uses leverage and is always in the market.  Full descriptions and characteristics of each program will be posted as available.  The goal is to both present alternatives to those investors that have specific preferences and as diversification to those who seek a steady growth curve.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 29, 2010

Current position for Thursday: Both programs 100% money market.  Our long signal came too late to make the trade as it spent the day targeting the money market, but by the close our broad-based indicators moved to the plus side along with our pricing indicators.  I expect another small up day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 28, 2010

Current position for Wednesday.  Primary program 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New long/money-market program is 100% Money market.   The very tiny market changes continue.  Our signal shifted to the long side as both price action and broad based indicators turned positive.  This activity can easily continue for a few more days into year end, but I would not expect it into January.  In January we will see other influences from wash-sale activity to investors nailing down profits from 2010.  Reviewing the past 17 years in the NDX we find that January daily price changes are about 10% more volatile than the December changes.  The absolute value of daily price changes relative to the Vix has been declining over the past ten years. This should be good for option writers who are getting more for their options with less risk. The last two months of (price changes)/vix are running about half of the long term average.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 27, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  The market was mostly unchanged and we held our positions with our signal and broad-cased indicators turning slightly more negative. I am working on another long term forecast that should be ready by the weekend. Snow storm on the East coast probably keeping some traders from their desks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: December 23, 2010

Current position for Monday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Hopefully everyone had a happy holiday.  The early aftermarket is leaning lower, perhaps due to China's hike in interest rates. We expect that retailers had a small increase over 2009 with the online shops taking the giant share.  The storefront retailers were doing a lot of discounting.  Both our pricing and broad based indicators are negative with other components neutral. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 22, 2010

Current position for Thursday.  Primary program 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New long/money-market program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   The S&P and NDX both have a string of 5 up days in a row.  This should be enough to register an overbought condition but the tiny moves and holiday trading patterns tell another story. Most our our indicators are neutral, except for our positive trending components.  This inch by inch advance could continue into the new year as forced tax selling is off the table and volume is light. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 21, 2010

Current position for Wednesday.  Primary program 100% money market.  New long/money-market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  The S&P and NDX put in their fourth consecutive up day.  We have not had five in a row since October. The holiday pressure is to the upside along with our pricing algorithm and trending indicators. Our broad based indicators are leaning negative. I expect more upside before the week is over mostly due to pre-holiday trading and QE2 keeping the bears at bay. Ernst and Young could be in bad trouble regarding the Lehman collapse in 2008. Korea seems to have disappeared from the news. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 20, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Adobe's strong earnings and guidance could help the NDX on Tuesday.  The scare is North Korea, they threw the first punch but did not make South Korea back off, so the North has put itself into a corner, fight or flight.  Watch oil to see how seriously the threat is being perceived. The stock markets don't seem to care.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 19, 2010

Current Position 100% money market,  both programs for Monday.  Our broad based indicators are negative, with trend neutral and price based indications positive overall very mixed with balanced probabilities. We moved fully into the money market. We have some negative patterns set up for the next two weeks but they could easily be offset by the continued QE2 inflows causing this relatively flat trend of almost two weeks to continue.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 16, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Oracle and Research in Motion beat estimates after the close putting our forecast in jeopardy.  Aside from that, I expect downward pressure over the next two days.  Both our pricing and broad based indicators are negative with our trending indicators neutral. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 15, 2010

Current position for Thursday.  Primary program 100% money market.  New long/money-market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  The market is in a topping pattern with the NDX chattering about the November top of 2200.  We see some downside influences next week, but it is as likely that these small choppy sessions will give the market time to digest and move higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 14, 2010

Current Position Long 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund,  both programs, for Wednesday. Our probabilities are positive, but Tuesday left us with less than our minimum sample size to draw our conclusions.  Best Buy, the brick and mortar electronics retailer continues to lose market share to the on-line stores, even though they are just about the only store front retailer left standing. It is just a matter of time until a country wide VAT will be assessed on all online purchases.  But by then there will be few real  shops left to compete.  The Fed reaffirmed its commitment to QE2, as they recognize the problems of unemployment but lack the tools to fix it. Japan entered its 19th year of declining real estate prices, that was one heck of a bubble, watch out gold bugs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 13, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  The early rally lost power leaving some indexes up and some down. Our signal turned "partially short", with the broad based components closing slightly positive, pricing action slightly negative and trending indicators were flat. Not much in the news world to impact markets. Our probabilities are mostly even with negative leaning amplitudes.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 10, 2010

Current position for Monday.  Primary program 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New long/money-market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   Friday's trading showed good steady strength all day.  Small continuous gains are very good for the market and enables it to climb longer.  We have strength every where, but only moderate probabilities. Overall positive trend should continue during the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 9, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  I thought the market would go lower this past week, but it remained solid.  I expect a single-day down move on Friday that should take us back to where the week started.  Next week looks positive for the longs but it is difficult for me to target a price range as that falls outside of what I do, but I do not expect it to go very far as more downside pressure should occur after mid month.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: December 8, 2010

Current position for Thursday.  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Our pricing component remains positive and our broad based component has turned slightly positive. Everything else is neutral giving us a partial long signal. The NDX is sitting a touch above the old intraday high. This could act as support if the market moves into a trading range.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 7, 2010

Current Position 100% money market,  both programs for Wednesday. Obama's tax plan gave the markets an early boost but all was given back by the close. The most important component of the plan was the small cut in social security tax, it's a start and will put the money in a far better place than we get with QE2.  Our signal  influences are very mixed from a positive price component to a broad based negative component. Tuesday could have been a blow off top, but my indicators are not screaming in either direction.  Wednesday normally has a positive bias and the aftermarket is slightly negative so we have no clues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 6, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  The stock market seems stalled at the highs.  Our broad based indicator, pricing indicator, trending indictor and probabilities are all negative.  Looks like this expected downturn could last awhile. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 3, 2010

Current position for Monday.  Primary program is 50% Long Rydex  NDX 2x Fund. New Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Sour employment news slowed the market's upward progress but did not do any immediate damage. Our trending indicators have turned negative, while our pricing indicators became neutral. The broad based component is positive and the probabilities are strong. The NDX had a new closing high for the year, but did not reach 2010's intraday high of 2200. I do not expect a positive break out since our trending indicators are pushing in the opposite direction.  That should limit the potential upside for Monday.  Tuesday should be the rollover day. I believe the week will close lower than it opens, potential remains for a hard drop.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 2, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program 100% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund. New long/money-market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   All of a sudden we see lots of optimism. The extended strength on Thursday should shorten the rally by one day and I expect to see Friday as the top.  Gains are much better for persistence when they are small and continuous.  When the NDX closes on the high of the day it is a bad sign. Thursday the RUT closed on the high of the day, that is slightly positive.  I see potential for a large drop next week.  Hopefully it will not start on Friday, but our pricing component has already turned negative.  The NDX touched the November 10th closing high and closed a bit below it.  I am expecting the NDX to test the November 9 intra day high of 2200 and fail. We will still however continue to trade based on the evaluation of the markets at the close as things change and we need to be as flexible as possible to capture the distortions and inefficiencies in the market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 1, 2010

Current position for Thursday.  Primary program 100% Money market. New long/money-market program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   The employment numbers gave the market an extra kick on the way up. Looking at the NDX I expect to see a slight pause on Thursday followed by a resumption in the uptrend that could last one or two days.  This should not get above the recent  NDX high of 2200 and probably not past the closing high of 2188. That action if it comes to pass should cap the market top for the year and the markets should head lower to year end possibly bringing the NDX back down to near the April highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 30, 2010

Current position for Wednesday.  Primary program is 100%  Long,  Long/money market program is 75% Long: Rydex  NDX 2x Fund.  With the exception of the RUT we find that the other indexes have given back their Thanksgiving gains. That is not good. On the bright side after three days of lower markets our broad based indicators are strong, pricing indicators are strong and all our signals are strong and positive. That is very good and with tomorrow being a Wednesday we have the normal market flow to help.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 29, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is 100%  Money market:  Long/money market program is 75% Long: Rydex  NDX 2x Fund.   The market shows continued strength and closed well off the low of the day.  Our primary signal closed long but was too shaky going into the close to take a position. Our long/money market program always provides a stable signal and we were able to go long.  This is not an exceptionally strong signal as our broad based indicators are only slightly positive and our pricing indicators are negative.  The closing probabilities however look very good for Tuesday on the up side.  With the NDX only 2% off its high the uptrend looks intact but  from our longer term perspective we see things getting weaker next week with the down trend continuing through year end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 27, 2010

Current position for Monday.  Primary program is 100% Short:  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   A 100% short signal has been rare this year, but all our major signal components have moved negative. The retail stocks have already made major gains and Black Friday has past.  Foreign market remain shaky and the there could be worries that the insider trading probes could point investigators to other areas of stock market manipulation. Early futures readings are down.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 24, 2010

Current position Both programs are Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Very nice up-day Wednesday kept our signal strong and long.  Our broad based indicators weakened along with our price indicator, but there should be some carry-over into the shortened trading day on Friday. Monday on the other hand might bring some trouble to the bulls as we may just be in an extended topping pattern. Wishing all my readers a happy Thanksgiving.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 23, 2010

Current position Both programs are Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  North Korea, insider trading and Europe bailout.  All the cats seem out of the bag for the moment and normal holiday trading should produce a small up day for the markets. Our broad signal is very strong along with pricing and good looking probabilities. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 22, 2010

Current position for Tuesday.  Primary program is 100% money market. New long/money-market program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. The markets closed with the NDX up and S&P down.  The S&P was hit along with the financials because of a government probe into insider trading with some big names involved.  I don't expect any big names will be hurt regardless of the outcome.  The market action near the close caused us to move into the money market. Our long/money market program is not influenced by closing action. Today's probabilities are balanced.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 19, 2010

Current position for Monday.  Primary program is 25% Short Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. New long/money-market program is Long 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We had another swing at the close from short to money market in our primary program.  Expecting a possible shift, I limited our exposure to a 25% short position.  We find that our broad based indicators are strongly negative while both pricing and trend indicators are positive. Overall a confused situation for Monday, Our probabilities are also of no help as they too are mixed.  Tuesday however is starting to look more positive. This was a wild week that went nowhere with the major indexes closing very much where they were last Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 18, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program is 100% money market. New long/money-market program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Our probabilities remain strong but today we have a limited number of similar cases to draw from, making them less reliable.  Our longer term components are positive while our broad based components are negative and our pricing components are mixed. Yesterday I said that buy and hold investors are sitting with 10 year losses of 25% in the S&P.  One of my readers correctly pointed out that when dividends are included and reinvested the return turns slightly positive ~0.4%. In real terms any investor that actually held the S&P or equivalent found that after inflation (using the CPI) the investment had lost about 22% of its starting value. And that investor saw a draw-down of -56% at the worse point. I doubt if anyone expected that the "high quality" "broadly diversified" S&P500 would give such terrible results.  The problem is with the belief in "buy and hold".  The longer the time-frame the more opportunity for negatives to happen. The only way to avoid the problem is with time-based-diversification where the investment is either in the money market or short, a good portion of the time, over the course of the investment.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 17, 2010

Current position Both programs are Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Our probabilities are exceptionally strong and all components are positively aligned. Overall we are in the market less than buy-and-hold so it is best to have a longer term focus as any single day could provide unnecessary excitement.  As both a long term professional investor and engineer my point of view looks at the long term with the first order being to reduce large risks. The buy and hold investors are sitting with 10 year losses of 25% in the S&P and 55% losses in the NDX.  By re-evaluating the markets daily we can and have avoided devastating long term trends.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: November 16, 2010

Current position for Wednesday.  Primary program Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New long/money-market program is 100% money market. This was another day where forces outside the US overpowered the normal market behavior. China's moves to cut inflation are well intended and will be good for the world economy and the local US economy. Not so good for the multinational corporations who can make money off the inflation effects on raw materials and the trashing of the dollar.  Aside from China and the problems of Ireland, Greece and Portugal the news from the US was good and reflected improvement in our economy. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: November 15, 2010

Current position Both programs are Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  With three down days in a row off the top the market should be ready to test the upside on Tuesday. Our price component  is positive along with both our longer term influences and broad based components.  I expect a small bounce higher with less chance of a follow through Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: November 12, 2010

Current Position 100% money market,  both programs for Monday. The Shanghai Composite Index fell more than 5% overnight causing the US markets to follow. Good news for us as our primary program gained 1.7% and our new long/money market program avoided the drop by being in the money market. Our price indicator remains negative with our broad based indicators holding neutral. The longer term indicators seem to be building for a Tuesday rally but are flat for Monday. Our probabilities are slightly higher with amplitudes leaning to the down side.  Overall we have a money market day.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: November 11, 2010

Current position for Friday.  Primary program Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.  New long/money-market program is 100% money market. The markets recovered about two thirds of their early drop. There are still a lot of buyers who will buy on any pull back. This market will not go down easily. For Friday we find our broad based indicator neutral with our pricing indicator negative. Longer term influences are neutral to negative.  Cisco earnings seemed to have been leaked early as the QLD plunged prior to Wednesday's close while the NDX which it is supposed to follow was up 1/2%. Wonder if the regulators will catch it?  Our probabilities are mixed for Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 10, 2010

Current position for Thursday.  Primary program Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. New long/money-market program is 75% Long Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Our two programs have divergent views. The quantitative easing lends credibility to the long-side along with Thursday generally leaning positive.  Our pricing component supports the negative case. While our broad based component is flat.  By allowing the programs to trade independent of each other we add some directional diversification in addition to the normal time- based-diversification that we enjoy. Ireland, Portugal and Greece are struggling to survive. Interest rates in Ireland for their 10 year note went over 8% today. The countries are laying off government workers and raising taxes which can only slow economic growth. More ripples are to come.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 9, 2010

Current Position 100% money market both programs for Wednesday.  October 1st was the last time that the NDX fell two days in a row.  Our signal turned long at the close after our cut-off so perhaps we will not see the second down day at this time.  Our probabilities are running about 50/50 with more amplitude to the down side.  Our price based indicators are long as are the broad based indicators. The 2-3 day signal remains neutral.  Overall indicators are slightly positive for Wednesday and we could see an overnight rally in the futures if traders fear getting left behind.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 8, 2010

Current Position 100% money market both programs for Tuesday.  Even "quantitative easing" will not be enough to have the markets go straight up without a pause, but it will most likely provide a floor to prevent a decline in the near future from turning into a major disaster.  Our broad based indicator has moved short, our pricing indicator is neutral and our 2-3 day signal is neutral. Over all Tuesday looks slightly negative but not enough to take a position. The elections by-passed the war issue even though it is tightly tied into the failing economy by draining billions a month.  Meanwhile "Daily Finance" reported today that 14% of Americans are now on food stamps.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 5, 2010

Current position Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  And our new long/money-market program is 100% in the Money market .  Our broad based signal strengthened after about two weeks of slight positives. The price based indicators are giving sell signals and our two day indicators are flat. The new program closed its first week of trading up 2.5%. A nice addition to our flagship program which tacked on 1.25%.  Consider the effects of a falling dollar. Higher fuel, food, metal and lumber costs along with higher transportation costs and increased cost for foreign goods and travel abroad. Increased earnings for multinationals who will go with the cash flow and increase their overseas investments and lobbying efforts to pound the dollar further keeping the cycle going. We started trading our new program at Rydex on October 29th and you can follow the weekly results on our forecast page.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 4, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  And our new long/money-market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  The markets showed good strength throughout the day responding to the Fed news. This is the normal reaction to Fed activity while the second day following often turns negative. Along with the normal FED response we see the price action as negative for Friday. Our regular program remains in the money market but overall there are enough positives to position our Long/money market program to the long side. Our broad based indicator is just barely positive and has remained in that position for almost two weeks. This is new to my eyes, indicating a sort of Zombie market  where there is continued buying without any positive or negative emotions. Volume continues to be low and it has not recovered from the normal low volume summer. The market seems to be trading as a hard asset moving opposite the damaged dollar and uncoupled from the US economy. At some point the dollar will turn higher, perhaps under pressure from Asia, and give the market a reason to pause.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 3, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday, both programs.  Our signal turned "short" at the close for our long/short program too late to adjust our position.  Our long/money-market program uses a more stable signal that will not change at the close and was moved into the money market after three days of leveraged gains, a very good start for the program launch. No surprise in the elections or with the Fed action. Continued bond purchases at this low level will most likely do more harm to the economy than good especially long term. This would seem the perfect time to issue more bonds at those super low rates, just like Goldman Sachs did little more than a week ago. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 2, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday.  Our new long/money-market program is 75% Long Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  The early rise and pull back movement continued for Tuesday, but this time the market recovered to near the highs for the day.  Our regular signal moved to the sidelines but our new long/money market signal remains in the long position. Our probabilities show that very small changes are expected for Wednesday.  The NDX continues to make new highs for the year while the S&P remains below its April high. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 1, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  Our long/money- market program is 75% Long Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Large early upside was quickly eliminated and the trading was back to the near nothing that we have seen for over a week. Money seems to be shifting ahead of the election results.  But regardless of who is elected  the only possible winners will be the multinationals as both parties have demonstrated a lack of concern for the local economy. The dollar will get no help, internal deflation will continue and external inflation from the falling dollar and demand from China and India will continue to make matters worse for our local economy and consumers.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 31, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  Our program stuttered between money market and 2x long at the close. It finalized on money market and we chose to move to 1x long as the best choice for position. This year, though they don't happen frequently , the unstable end-of-day trades have generally either been against us or left us in the money market during large up days. Normally we can expect to get half of them correct.  But there is another way, and after only trading our long/short/money market program for about ten years I will be offering a second program.  Today I am introducing our positions in a  second managed trading program that has significantly different trading characteristics from our flagship long/short/money-market program. We will be tracking the second program and trading it live with real money along with our flagship program going into the new year.  This new program will only go long or be in the money market.  Some of the targets and characteristics are shown below. Over time we will revise the web site to include sections on both programs. 

1. Long and money market only.

2. Program gives us an early direction signal that will not change going into the close. 

2. Long term market exposure about 50% of buy and hold. 

3.  Long term draw down expected to be only 25% as much as that of buy and hold. 

4. Daily market  exposure levels will be 2x, 1.5x, 1x and 0. 

5. Program has shown to behave very well under high volatility and down markets, and does not adjust for  volatility.

This Long and money market program will take positions that sometimes differ from our flagship long/short and money-market program. Both programs will be offered. 

Current position in new long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.

Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 28, 2010

Current position 25% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Many small ups and downs but only a slight positive for the day.  With tiny movements we have small levels of emotion and less pronounced signals.  I reduced our market exposure.  We have some mixed signals today. Price action is neutral, longer term influence is positive for Friday and Monday while other factors are negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 27, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  The NDX managed to recover from an early drop.  Recent earnings reports have not been good and more investors are questioning the treasuries decision to pump cash to buy back the long term treasury bonds.  Once again the government helps the multinationals.  This time by lowering interest rates so that they can issue bonds at a super low rate.....And invest the proceeds?  Well that is what the label says.  Why temporarily not cut the FICA for small business and low income employees so that they can move back into those empty store fronts we see across the nation and give the economy a real jump start instead of giving away more bonus money. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 26, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Our signal weakened to money market on the close after we placed our trade but the position looks good.  Our broad signal strength is only slightly positive, our multi-day forecast input is positive and our price action is also positive........  What is wrong with this picture?  The US treasury is buying back its long term bonds.  Goldman Sachs just issued 1.3 billion dollars of their new 50 year bond to private investors. Why is Goldman selling when the US treasury is buying?  One of them is making the wrong move and it is not hard to guess which one it is.  Goldman, with many ex-employees as Obama advisors and a couple of ex-ceos as Treasury Secretaries finds this week as the right time to sell their bonds.   The treasury pushed interest rates down close to all time lows.  If any of that move is political it would come to an end with elections a week away. Sounds like the perfect time to take sell the longest term bonds possible. Goldman extends its bond term out to 50 years.  We have a perfect three factor convergence.  I believe Goldman has just notified us of the bottom in interest rates. Couldn't be more perfect if they planned it themselves, oh, maybe they did.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 25, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  There has been a lot of talk about the market moving higher on the Fed's Open Market Operation days.  Tomorrow is one of them so why are we short?  These days are known in advance. They are not secret. Since every one knows about them they really have no special reason for going higher. The observation of them going higher was based on a very small set of data points and at some point all the buyers are going to be disappointed. Our transactions are based on long term trends. What we do is long term investing one day at a time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 24, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday. The markets made a small gain for the week as earnings continued mostly higher with diminished revenue streams. More news of multinational corporations avoiding taxes through "legal" off shore manipulations while the local economies continued to get pounded. Should be more skittish market movement this week but most of the "hot" earning reports are done. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 21, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Thursday's market closed higher but showed weakness mid-day with only a partial recovery. Out Broad signal is neutral to positive, our multi-day forecast is positive but the price action is negative. We have seen a number of recent cases of sell on the news for AAPL and AMZN.  Over all it looks like toping action.  Probabilities are slightly positive but the amplitudes are very negative a bad sign for the markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 20, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Our multi-day forecast remains positive.  Broad signal strength is also positive. The question is will the market hold up going into elections?  There are more negatives to consider as most earnings reports were strong on profit but light on revenue and the housing reports are showing diminishing building permits. Still the market seems strong and near new highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 19, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday. All markets were significantly lower on the day. After the close Yahoo announced that they beat profit estimates but had lower sales. Our signal for Wednesday  was for the money market but  turned to long after the close of Rydex trading, so we are in the money market. Closing signal changes often mean less reliable signals. A look at our probabilities shows positive amplitudes but weak probabilities. The money market looks like a reasonable place to be for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 18, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  The plunge in Apple's share price in the aftermarket  was not unexpected considering its run prior to release of the spectacular earnings. I expect our short to work out well on Tuesday as early indications show a drop of 1.5% in the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 15, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday. Looks like some divergence has appeared in the markets as the Dow and Rut closed lower and the NDX leaped on Apple expectations and Google news. This was an odd occurrence as most often the markets are much more closely correlated. The past few weeks have been very one sided. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 14, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  We exited our short position at the morning fix.  Google announced good earnings growth and sent the aftermarket higher.  The S&P futures are not going along for the ride so will we have to see how this plays out.  The NDX may peak in after hour trading.  Our 2-3 day forecast was positive for Friday, but the broad based indicators and the pricing indicators are negative. The small daily moves and falling Vix encourage the longs.  I still do not see any fear creeping in.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 13, 2010

Current position 25% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  The dollar's fall continued to drive commodity and stock prices higher today.  It has been in a steady decline since the beginning of June.  Thursday's signal turned flat from an earlier short at the close. I stepped into the short position and the late swing to money market left our position at 25% short.  Our broad based signal is now positive with most other elements at flat to slightly negative.  The Euro may be reaching its limits on the upside which would flatten the dollars fall and perhaps give it a lift, putting an end to the markets climb.  Apple will release its earnings next week and money is quickly flowing into the stock in anticipation.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 12, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Wednesday. The market recovered from its early1% drop (NDX) and continued higher on Monday.  Intel reported earnings close to expected results but sounded more positive on the future.  Our broad based indicators are negative with pricing indicators very positive and not much fear in the marketplace. Overall probabilities however are leaning lower.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 11, 2010

Current position 47.5% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  Early gains evaporated late in the day and the market closed flat. Our Tuesday signal went short on the opening and stayed locked there all day.  We find our broad based indicators are negative along with the longer term signals. Our price related short term signals are mixed. A new indicator that looks at opening gaps is positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 10, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday. Our probabilities are strong and the market appears stronger than it should be based on fundamentals. At some point the traders will withdraw support and the market will head lower. The local US economy is not getting better, more jobs are being lost.  Neither political party seems to have a handle on the solution. This is a bottom up problem that needs to be funded at the bottom and go from the bottom up.  Cash at the bottom creates demand, not the other way around. You can't use trickle down theory when the masses are out of work.  There is a time for trickle down and that time is not now.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: October 7, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Friday. Our probabilities are mixed but leaning higher while our  broad based signal continues to indicate negativity. Going forward we see weakness early next week with strength coming in starting on Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: October 6, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  It looks like the small downside could easily continue into Thursday as our signal became more negative.  We now have broad based negativity for Thursday. Our outlook going forward past Thursday is mixed. ADP's employment report showed job losses for September against expected gains. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: October 5, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Big up-day most likely triggered by Japan's rate cut that moved our t-bill and long bond rates lower. Our long term cycle indicator moved to the down side today and will stay that way for a few months. I expect some consolidation of today's jump over the next two days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: October 4, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Tuesday. I did not see any especially negative news on Monday. It looks like market enthusiasm has run out for now. Our signal turned flat as we have multiple negative influences forcing our positive indicators to a stand still.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: October 3, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  Our multiple day forecast starts out positive but quickly loses strength to flat, but not overly negative going forward. Low quality bonds are not showing any fear. So I believe there is still some life left in this rally.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our recently posted longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 30, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  The markets had a small negative change over a wide range today.  This is better than a large change with a small trading range. We have been on the wrong side of this market the past  week and a half so we should find ourselves back in sync shortly. NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted this past week!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 29, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Our signal oscillated between money market and 100% long near the close.  We split the difference at 50% long for our position. The closing signal was at 100% long too late to trade.  The declining dollar should help keep the market from falling very far. It seems that all countries are fighting to devalue their currencies at the same time.  NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted this past week!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 28, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Tuesday the NDX fell over 1.5% to fill the gap created on Monday, and then recovered to close higher. This should encourage the technicians towards the long side. It looks like the rest of the week will trend higher.  The slow devaluation of the dollar is basically a cut in wages for the US worker. Cut wages low enough and work flows back to the US.  Cutting wages is bad publicity, but devaluing the dollar gets past the censors. There is a long way to go and I it looks like it will continue.  Eventually things will stabilize and gold will come crashing back down, so if you are a gold bug stay on your toes even if it take another few years to happen.  NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted this past week!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 27, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  Though the market was able to recover from an early decline it slipped into the close. Our weekly forecast is positive along with our two day forecast, but more downside should be in store for Tuesday. RIM announced a smaller lighter I-Pad type device called the PlayBook that works with the Blackberry.   NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted this past week!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 26, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  There was a large up-side surprise on Friday that started when the dollar fell overnight.  We have not done much with trends, but this past week I was able to solidify a method that can point to the continuance of an uptrend. The program in its present state looks about 5 days ahead and is far better than anything I have come across for a general weekly outlook.  It is currently limited to a yes/not regarding the continuance of an uptrend.  This trend  program is positive for the coming week. Although the markets are gaining gold's climb has overshadowed those gains. And with gold signaling distrust of the markets and currencies something has to give.  Either the gold bugs are correct and the world economies will come crashing down or the market buyers are correct and the economies will improve.  They can't both be right. NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted this past week!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

 Comments: September 23, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Another flat day for the NDX, another flat forecast for tomorrow.  This time the probabilities are at 50/50 and the amplitudes match. I haven't seen it that even before. The S&P is doing a little bit worse and has lost 1.3% over the past two days, but its probabilities and amplitudes are positive for Friday.  We posted a new long term view yesterday and added a piece on NetFlix this morning. I think you will find the NetFlix comments interesting, as it is about how many factors converged to make the company successful. Were they brilliant or lucky? NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted!  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 22, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  Our signal remains flat. TheNDX finally had a real down day and this should get the market back to more normal behavior.  Although the probabilities slightly favor the upside  the amplitudes are greater on the downside keeping the risk/reward mostly even. Without having an edge the best thing to do is stay in the money market until the market produces an imbalance in either direction. NEW LONG TERM FORECAST posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 21, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday. This morning's headline read "New home construction surges 10.5%!"  What you had to dig to find was that the 10.5% was from the past month and the more reliable number, the  year over year change was only 2.2%.  In addition the number of new permits were less than the number of housing starts and the number of permits were down 6.7%  from the same time last year indicating that going forward housing starts would be lower than they are now.  This was bad news packaged as good news, investors beware. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 20, 2010---sorry I wrote this, then left without posting.

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  I sold off half of our short position at the AM fix and reinstated it at the close leaving us once again 50% short.  Our long signals for the past few weeks were stronger than these short signals and we are currently less exposed on the down side. The market does have remarkable strength and continues to climb. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 19, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  The market could not hold on to the Oracle and REM euphoria, a sign that the rally should be coming to an end.  Our signal remained partially short. Although is is not a strong signal, Friday's anemic market behavior and the eight in a row NDX up days gives support to our negative position.  For the next week or two we see a slightly positive tone, though the bulk of the rally is probably past.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 16, 2010

Current position 50% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Oracle beat top and bottom end expectations and has pushed the early after market higher by almost 1/2%. With the wind at its back the NDX could make it 8 up-days in a row.  However, options expiration might give it some negative spin and negate the positive Oracle impact.  Both traders and Investors tend to follow the latest news so the earlier office closings and layoffs by FedEx are already mostly forgotten. This is our first short signal this month in this very strong market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 15, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Thursday.  The market continues to creep higher. Although our signal has turned flat there is a good chance that the market can squeak out one more day to the upside as our signal is slightly positive, just not enough for commitment.  As of today I expect weakness on Friday that will carry over into Mondays trading but I suspect that it will be a short rest and the rally will continue on Tuesday. As always we look ahead, but re-evaluate the markets daily to take our actual position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 14, 2010

Current position Long 75%: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund, 25% Rydex SPX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  This is options expiration week. Although you will hear news commentators speak of the volatility surrounding option's expiration, that does not translate into any larger daily changes. Our historical review did not find and difference between options expiration week and the other weeks in the month.  We did see some daily trends that were not as pronounced during non-expiration weeks. Historically option-week-Fridays tend to go down a greater percentage of the time and show greater down side change than non-option Fridays.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 13, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Tuesday.  The S&P has gains in 8 of the last 9 days but still does not look overly toppy.  Although we have a number of components leaning lower we did not get a strong enough negative signal to move short.  Even our probabilities are more mixed than negative. So there could be additional upside prior to any real correction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 12, 2010

Current position Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  If I am correct the market will become overextended on Monday and should pull back Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday.  The weekend news was positive for US multinationals with China showing considerable growth. This does little for the local economies and local and state governments that rely on US citizens being employed and spending. But it should give us one more day of upside to this current rally. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 9, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Most of the contacts that I have are looking for a correction, and have been for a couple of weeks. Our signal has been long or in the money market for almost two weeks and the market has had only one down day in the last seven sessions. Friday is conflicted but we are getting early positive signs for Monday so the uptrend may have a few more days to go.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 8, 2010

Current position Long: 80% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Obama's infrastructure plan will take time to implement, but needs to be done.  Letting the tax cuts expire on the $250k group is also a good idea as more of the money will now be pumped back into business spending to avoid the tax bill. Those making big dollars on somebody's payroll however will not be happy. A temporary payroll tax cut would have been the smartest move for immediate results. Our signal moved back to the positive side as our program thinks the rally has more to go.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 7, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Wednesday.  The market had been strong for a number of days and was ready to be spooked by the Wall Street Journal article on the European banks. I do expect the rally to continue later in the week after a day or two of confusion. Unless the Obama tax credits are limited we will see the large corporations perform magic and convert them into more bonuses. However a fair amount would hopefully be converted into equipment purchases that should send capital through the economy.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 3, 2010

Current position Long 80%: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund, 30% Rydex SPX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  The market traders interpreted Friday's employment figures as positive. The reality is there were not enough jobs created to offset the number of new workers and unemployment has gotten worse. The market / economy disconnect should hold through next week with a small mid-week pause.  We moved back long and partially leveraged.  The NDX closed on the high of the day. This is normally a bad thing unless that day is Friday, then it is encouraging for the following day as investors show that they were scrambling to buy and hold over the weekend.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 2, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Friday.  Historical probabilities for Friday are slightly positive, but we have a number of exceptionally weak components that are pointing lower. Our overall signal is for the money market and I am very curious as to how Friday will play out. There is also the government's monthly employment report due out Friday to add to the confusion. We only trade when we have a strong enough signal so our overall exposure to the markets has been less than that of someone being in the market every day, even though we sometimes (like we did two days this week) apply leverage to our trades. Our good news for our clients is that we more than made up for last week's difficulties and have once again moved positive for the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: September 1, 2010

Current position Long: 80% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Very nice start to September.  We trimmed our long to 80%, but remain leveraged.   Wednesday's rush started early in the aftermarket Tuesday night and heavy buying of the futures paved the way for a strong opening fueled by the manufacturing numbers and probably short covering. The market then shrugged off bad employment and car sales news as it held most of the gains throughout the day.  Wednesday's large move has set up a negative pattern for Friday that may tempered by other factors that we should uncover tomorrow. We could see another 3% to 4% more upside on this rally perhaps over the next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 31, 2010

Current position Long: 95% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Large price movement, but no real change on the day.  Our signal strengthened and we are looking for a solid up-day for Wednesday.  Most components are now positive. The early aftermarket is higher and looking strong. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: August 30, 2010

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  This week should have less surprises as most of the reports should be very minor with the exception of Friday's employment figures.  This should lead to a higher week, at least through Thursday.  We have realigned with the indexes and moved 50% long.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 29, 2010

Current position 46% Short: 23% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund,23% Rydex Inverse SPX fund for Monday.  This was a bad week as we were on the wrong side of the news and Ben Bernanke.  Going forward we could expect some early carry over from Friday's upturn.  Our signal is a moderate short and we have a mixed signal moving into Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 26, 2010

Current position 46% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Early gains faded away as even less-bad news (unemployment figures) could not bring encouragement to the investors.  Our signal reversed and we moved short.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 25, 2010

Current position Long 100%, 67% Rydex NDX 2x Fund, 33% Rydex SPX 2x Fund, for Thursday.  Our signal remained fully long, but it has lost some strength. I moved a third of the position into the less volatile S&P.  Today's bad news regarding new home sales  was not enough to hold the market lower after an early drop, and the market spent most of the day, with the exception of the last 10 -15 minutes, climbing. Our extended forecast is flat to higher for Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 24, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  European worries and a July home sales report that dropped almost twice the estimate beat the markets lower.  Our signal got stronger and we remain fully long.  The probabilities show a strong chance of a small rally with the average historical change rather small.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 23, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  The markets continued their slide.  Additional late selling was also not encouraging.  It did not seem to phase our signal for Tuesday and we moved to fully long. Our two day signal for Wednesday is also long. I expect to see a small rally in here, perhaps stimulated by additional M&A activity, but the sluggish economic news is driving prices lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 20, 2010

Current position 100% Money market for Monday.  Probabilities for Monday are slightly positive.  We have a number of components at odds with each other resulting in a money market signal. For Tuesday we look ahead and see continuing conflict.  Friday's NDX did manage a small gain but the other indices closed lower.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 19, 2010

Current position 48% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  The market was prepared for only one bad news report, but it got two and was sunk.  I can't see the market climbing much higher from here.  Although our two day signal is positive for Monday a number of other factors may get in the way of any upside progress. Friday will help tell the story.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 18, 2010

Current position Long: 84% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday. The early aftermarket is lower, but during the day the slow upward climb continued.  The S&P and NDX show three days of minor gains.  Not enough to gain enthusiasm, nor enough for traders to fade the markets. The news was uninspired.  This minor positive rebound could last a couple of more days, but overall dismal economic conditions should eventually turn the path lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 17, 2010

Current position Long: 84% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Little bits of good economic news helped drive the markets higher on Tuesday. They could not hold the full gains, but we may be looking at some stealth gains that continue for one or two more days...  I keep hearing on Bloomberg news how raising individual tax rates are bad for business. Actually the opposite is true.  If I found myself in a very high incremental tax bracket as a small business owner I would pump more pre tax money into marketing/advertising (for example) to avoid the tax. This would benefit my business by increasing sales.  I might even have to hire extra help. So although I most likely would complain about the high tax rate, it would help my business and the overall economy.  Think about it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 16, 2010

Current position Long: 84% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  The NDX penetrated the Thursday morning low on the open, then penetrated the Friday high and finally closed slightly higher on the day. It was positive behavior.  We are holding our long position into Tuesday.  Our look ahead signal remains positive for Wednesday also. The news continues to lean to the negative, it looks more and more like the markets will end lower on the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 13, 2010

Current position Long: 84% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  Markets fell for a fourth day as early after-market gains met discouraging economic news.  Still the blowout on Thursday morning was not penetrated and our probabilities are strong for an up-side recovery. I expect that there might be some Monday morning negative carryover as Thursday morning lows may be tested.   I am looking for a rally that should carry us through mid-week bringing the S&P back to test the 1120 level.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 12, 2010

Current position 42% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Friday is the 13th, but most of the fear played out at the open of the markets on Thursday.  From there the markets recovered the greater part of their fall and held at that level throughout the day.  Our program responded to the recent volatility with reduced exposure. Our intent is to keep the risk level as constant as possible through adjustments to exposure. Earnings wise, Software maker, Autodesk posted strong earnings but was offset by chip maker, Nvidia whose loss widened leaving the early after-market unchanged.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 11, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  It usually does not matter much if a signal changes after we place our trade.  Wednesday it did.  Still we have a gain for August. With three straight months of gain the program is working well and that is what it takes for long term success.   It seemed like the same Fed related news that drove the market higher last week is pushing  it down this week.  Early trading in the aftermarket continues to be rough with the indexes down 1% to 1.5%, partially due to Cisco's miss on reported revenue.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 10, 2010

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  We exited our short position at the Rydex morning fix.  I did not want to hold the short into the Fed decision since I expected a recovery and thought the morning drop was overdone. It turned out to be a good move.  We did, however, run into a problem at the end of day trade.  Our strong long-signal hit a dead pocket and turned to "money market"  near the close after we took our position, luckily this does not happen very often. From a technical point of view it looks like the 1900 level on the NDX is resistance and the 1120 level on the S&P is support leaving the markets in sort of a dead pocket. Some positives though, the market tends to go higher the day after the Fed meets, and last minute changes in our signal are not as reliable as stable signals. The Fed stated that they would reinvest the proceeds from their mortgage holdings to buy government bonds.  This monetizing of debt puts more money into the money supply, but also helps lower mortgage rates. Were this three years ago this would spur spending through a flurry of refinancing.  This time around many home owners can't qualify for refinancing as the banks tightened their loan requirements. So really, without the banks lending, little will be accomplished.  But investors like to know that the Fed is doing something, even though they don't want to hear that something needs to be done. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 9, 2010,

Current position Short 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday. The Fed meeting is the current market focus.  The Fed will most likely present a plan to stimulate the economy through further easing using some additional methods. Based on our signal I expect that this will initially frighten investors or provoke some to sell-on-the-news.  Most likely the scare will be over by Wednesday and the markets will continue on their recent upward path.  HP paid its price for ousting CEO Hurd with an 8% drop in share price.  HP has a rather interesting board of directors; they have had their share of rogue CEO's and eventually may stay on top of things enough to keep the company moving forward but individual stocks always add risks from random events to your portfolio.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 6, 2010,

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  The private sector added less jobs than expected knocking the market down in the morning. Goldman Sachs added fuel to the decline by revising downward their estimate for GDP growth in 2011. Did Goldman make money from their comments?  Does Goldman trade stocks?  In any event the market  mostly recovered by the end of the day similar to Thursday's action.  The Fed rate announcement will be on Tuesday 2:15 PM ET.  Our signal is a partial "long". Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 5, 2010,

Current position 100% Money market.  The market fell early and then slowly grinded its way back, but did not quite make it. Our signal became even more mixed and we moved into the money market for Friday. Early peek at Monday is also cloudy, but slightly positive. Could be more slow going until the Fed meeting.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 4, 2010,

Current position Long 100%, 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund, 50% Rydex SPX 2x Fund, for Thursday.  Our signal kicked into full gear and we are now 100%  long.  The probabilities have not changed very much from yesterday and not all components are in agreement.  As I have mentioned before I expect that traders are getting more long going up to the Fed meeting next week. The look ahead into Friday is more mixed and undefined. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 3, 2010,

Current position Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Could be Tuesday was just a short pause in the upward climb as our signal turned positive for Wednesday and looking forward I see more positives for Thursday.  Earnings news has slowed down and the market is acting more on its own steam. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 2, 2010,

Current position Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  Nice up-move pushed us back to positive for the year. Today's move started overnight as the European markets were up over 2% by the time our markets opened.  Investors are looking for some good news out of the next Fed meeting on August 10th. The market will most likely continue to step higher going into next week. We have turned partially short since we go one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 30, 2010,

Current position Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  We have a strong "long" signal for Monday and are fully invested. Early aftermarket figures are very positive. This week had a lot of changes in direction, but by week's end our accounts and the averages closed pretty much where they started. The White house said that the bailout of GM and Chrysler created 55 thousand jobs. The cost was 86 Billion. They did not say that each job cost $86b/55k or $1.56 million.  This does not look like an efficient way to create jobs especially since the cars would have been purchased anyway, so maybe Ford or a foreign corporation would have added those  jobs in the US to meet the demand.  A foreign corporation that has a plant in the US and hires US workers is of more value to us than an American corporation that has the bulk of its laborers overseas. We need to rethink what pro America really is. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 29, 2010

Current position Short: 47% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  The NDX closed lower after going higher twice. We moved short and increased our exposure.  Amazon was in the news these past few days as they sold out of their $189 Kindle and introduced a $139 version. I can see where this is going. Electronic books are not limited to words. Pictures in color and video will become the norm and a "book" will expand to a "media parcel".  Kindle will soon be in color to compete with the I-Pad and when that happens it will be easier for buyers of the older Kindles to move to the color ones, especially since Amazon has pretty much cornered the book market.  Similarly news papers will be "news media parcels" making them more meaningful when read on a media pad like the I-Pad or color Kindle. In the mean time the $139 Kindle will steal I-Pad users and eventual convert them to new Color Kindle users. Apple has the music and the music player.  Amazon has the books and book readers, and Netflix has the movies.  Will one emerge to take over all three?   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 28, 2010

Current position Long: 30% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Our signal is now only slightly positive and we reduced our exposure accordingly.  The next few days could have downward pressure, but I expect a sharp recovery starting the first week in August. Today's downward catalyst was the durable goods report showing a decline of 1% in orders for June.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 27, 2010

Current position Long: 43% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Not much movement on Tuesday, but probably enough of a pause to set the market back to the upside track.  I am looking for another pause or slight down later this week before a resumed upside during the first two weeks in August.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 26, 2010

Current position Short: 43% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  The NDX closed on the high of the day for two days in a row.  This is a sign of over-enthusiasm.  Closing at or very close to the high for two days in a row should be considered to be a negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 25, 2010

Current position Long: 81% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday.  We had a typo on last weeks year to date tally for our accounts, it should have read -0.8% ,not -1.8%, the chart was correct. Mondays have long term negative trends, but have been positive over the past year.  Our signal is showing good strength and with lower recent volatility we moved into a positive leveraged position for the day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 22, 2010

Current position Short: 38% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  Amazon beat revenue forecasts but missed profit estimates and was hit for 15% in the aftermarket. Netflix got clobbered for 13.5% during the day. These are two excellent companies with great earnings in sync with the economic trends. Internet buying continues to surge, a boon to both.  Netflix will soon see a great productivity boost  as more people go for the unlimited downloads and away from the labor intensive mailings.  However when a company carries a PE ratio of +50 this type of action should be expected. Amazon has helped push the NDX down in the aftermarket.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 21, 2010

Current position Short: 38% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Thursday.  Ben Bernanke confirmed the depressed state of the economy and the market slid in response. We have only a moderate short signal and have taken an underweight position.  Our T-Index called out the deflation threat on September 15, 2008, it continues to show that we are in a deflationary mode.  With revenue growth a major problem for the corporations this will not change soon. I do not believe that we can sustain any long term stock market improvement under these conditions. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 20, 2010

Current position 100% Money market.  Our signal turned long a few minutes prior to the close but was showing "money market" at the time we closed our trading in Rydex funds so we exited our long position. The track record on fluctuating signals is not as strong as that for stable signals.  After the close Yahoo missed revenue estimates and plunged 4%. Apple on the other hand gained 2.5% sending the NDX higher in the aftermarket.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 19, 2010

Current position Long: 36% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  I was not expecting the optimism to last through the week, but I was looking for another up day.  This will be difficult after IBM's revenues came in below expectations and is driving the aftermarket lower.  We are seeing good earnings due to cost cutting and poor revenue due to a bad economy. This means that growth will be stunted and extending that out to the economy at large, is the reason the ten year bonds are sitting below 3%.  Deflation or at least zero inflation is the expectation.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 16, 2010

Current position Short:  18% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund, 18% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x Fund for Monday.  This turned out to be a good week for us as we had gains from both long and short positions with less than half the market exposure.  I expect some downside carryover for Monday, but our signals are still at partial strength as they were all last week.  I will be working on another long term forecast and expect to have it in the next few days.  Next few days should see a mid week rally, but the start and end of the week look negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 15, 2010

Current position Short: 40% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday. Goldman Sachs gets a fine equal to about 4% of last years earnings for fraud. They also had paid out almost twenty times that amount in bonuses.  The stock was up over 4% on Thursday and more than another 4% in after hours trading. The senate passed the finance reform  bill. The NDX has now had ten consecutive down days followed by eight  consecutive up days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 14, 2010

Current position 100% Money market.  We should see a pause in here after the strong rally of the past week.  I expect that most of the earnings from the multinationals will be positive and push the market higher, on the opposite side most of the broad economic reports will be negative and act to hold the market back.  This reflects the economy where the companies after cutting staff are making money overseas while the smaller companies are struggling with local and state cutbacks and a non spending public.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 13, 2010

Current position Long: 37% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  We reversed our small position for Wednesday.  It is interesting how waves of optimism and pessimism rapidly shift from one side to the other with little actual change in the fundamentals. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 12, 2010

Current position Short: 38% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  AA earnings came in higher and raised estimates for the year sending stocks higher in the aftermarket. This news should help the market squeeze more short term upside, but it has reached overbought levels by our in-house indicators.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 11, 2010

Current position 100% Money market.  Some technical indicators are looking for the market to continue its rally.  We have not changed our negative position for the post July 12th market, but since we go day by day we could see a more muted climb or smaller drop in the markets rather than a strong continuation of the mid-June decline. I am working on a broader long term view that will look at where the country is headed economically and should have it up by next weekend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 8, 2010

Current position Short: 73% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  The S&P has tacked on 4.6% over the past three days. This retraces about 52% of its prior 10 day fall. The NDX has retraced about 40%. Our signal has turned to a strong "short". The near term target for the S&P would be back to the 1040 level which I expect will happen sometime next week. On the positive side we saw the 10 year note interest rates go over 3%, but the recent gains in the S&P kept the index overvalued by our indicator.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 7, 2010

Current position 100% money market for Thursday.  Although the test of the S&P 1040 level did not fail immediately and the Dow pushed though 10,000, I feel the downturn isn't over yet. Our signal turned flat and we moved into the money market.  The next few days should round out a top and the rollover should begin again early next week. I am looking for new lows. Wells Fargo will cut 3800 jobs and tighten their lending criteria from an already tight level. This isn't a move from a company that expects the economy to improve.  The recent  IPO, Tesla Motors, closed at 15.8 already down almost 50%  from its high of 30.42 only four days ago.  I expect there is also more downside on this one.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 6, 2010

Current position Long: 59% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Wednesday.  Tuesday's early strength, derived from the strong Asian and European markets fell apart after the S&P passed though the 1040 mark, a level followed by traders. A late recovery kept most markets positive on the day, but the Russell suffered a 1.5% loss. I expect that the 1040 level will be tested again and fail a second time.  Our signal remains strong and we are holding our long position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 5, 2010

Current position Long: 59% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Tuesday.  There are many ways to judge the fundamental value of the stock market for the longer term. PE ratios by themselves are not enough because they neglect current interest rates.  Think of putting a value on the market like you would for an apartment building. A building would seem  undervalued if it could provide a 6% return when bonds paid only 3, but if bonds paid 10% the building would seem over priced. Interest rates can have a negative impact on the market if too high, whereby the high cost of money will shut the economy down. They can also have a negative impact like under our current conditions when they are too low since they can reflect a larger problem in the economy.  Under this type of condition I like to take the PE ratio of the S&P 500 and divide it by the current long term (10 year) interest rates for an index.  Over the past 18 years this value has ranged from 1.75 to 9.  The market has appeared to be undervalued at levels below about 4.6. The current market level is 4.98 making it about 8% overvalued.  However this is nothing new as most of the time since the beginning of 2008 the market has been overvalued. That is one problem with "fundamentals" they seem to work well over long periods of time but can get greatly out of whack during short periods. But being "long" the market during times when the index is low (< 4.6) has provided a safer environment to be in the market, with less draw downs and more consistent gains and a larger total gain then being it at all times. If earnings continue to grow,  the 10 year yield improves or the S&P goes lower this index value will fall and bring the market into a better alignment with its "fundamental value". 

The markets have been closely aligned with the direction of the euro, but this week the euro gained and the markets faltered. In overnight trading the US market is lower but the Shanghai index that led the decline has turned up over 1%.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: July 1, 2010

Current position Long: 27% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Friday.  The program remains positive but with reduced exposure.  Hard to believe, but we had a gain of almost 1% for the month of June. I have been asked why we don't just get out of the market when some well know methods signal a downturn.  For example when the 50 day moving average crosses the 200 day moving average.  The reason is that those methods do not hold up "consistently"  well long term.  And using that example the 50 day NDX is still above the 200 day NDX so no help for the present conditions. There is no easy solution for solving the market riddle, but re-evaluating the markets most probable direction every day will keep you out of long term trouble through time-based diversification. By not staying fixed in one direction for long periods of time major down turns can be avoided. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2010 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2009 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2009 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil