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Daily Market
Commentary
Comments: June
30, 2006
50%
Long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), 50% Money market for Monday. Our
accounts gained 25% for the first six months of the year.
Friday's
market lacked follow through, but that was not totally unexpected.
We now have a weak "long" signal, so I reduced our exposure. Our
T-Index fell to -4, adding more negativity to the equation. On the
plus side pre-holiday trading is generally positive. Closing targets for
the S&P are 1264 and 1277, for the NDX 1556 and 1592.
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Comments: June
29, 2006
75%
Long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), 25% money market for Friday. The
Fed softened a bit on its wording as it raised rates 1/4%. We have a
strong "long" signal, but I held back 25% in the money market
due to the large market jump on Thursday and the fact that our t-index
also softened, closing at only +1. I would have liked to have seen
the T-Index climb some. I expect the market to continue higher Friday,
perhaps backing off late in the afternoon as many leave for a long 4 day
holiday. Please
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Comments: June
28, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. After a mixed morning the
market gained back a little more than half of yesterday's loss. Our
T-Index moved back into positive territory, closing at +3. We have a
"money market" signal for Thursday that is leaning positive, but
Thursday is Fed announcement day, and that adds uncertainty. There are
less risky days to be in the market. The next Fed meeting is Tuesday
August 8th, so we will have some Fed-free weeks to enjoy for
awhile. Please
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Comments: June
27, 2006
25%
Short, 75% money market for Wednesday (Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC
Fund). Wednesday will be tricky. Our
T-Index turned negative early Tuesday morning and the market followed. I
had hoped that the T-Index would remain in positive territory and we would
see a recovery in the stock market, but it continues to bob about the zero
mark. It closed at -2. The NDX which had given up less than half its
recent gains off the bottom, lost almost 2% on Tuesday and a fall below
the recent lows is now once again a real possibility. On the other
hand Tuesday's drop may have taken most of the pre-Fed meeting adjustment
out of the market. Our probabilities are not that negative and we
kept our exposure at 25%. Tuesday's greater than expected drop pushed our
accounts up past +26% for the year-to-date
giving us a new high. The rest of the week will be difficult with a
negative T-Index, positive month end buying and investor jitters
pending the Fed meeting. Closing targets for the S&P are 1228 and
1244, for the NDX we have 1505 and 1546. Please
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Comments: June
26, 2006
25%
Short, 75% money market for Tuesday. The switch out
of the Rydex Dynamic OTC Fund and into the money market in the morning
paid off, and our accounts are back at our high for 2006. Tuesday's signal
is for the "money market", and leaning to the weak side. I
moved 25% into the Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC fund. Our T-Index
closed at +3. We now have 5 consecutive money market signals as the
market is micro adjusting for the next Fed meeting on June 29th. I
don't expect any dramatic moves prior to the meeting. Please
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Comments: June
23, 2006
100%
Long (exit at AM fix into money market). The signal
changed from "long" to "money market" at the
close, leaving us "long", in the Rydex Dynamic OTC fund
when the bell rang. We will exit at the morning fix. Unstable
signals at the close are just as likely to follow the original signal as
the new one. Our T-Index closed at +4. Please
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Comments: June
22, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. We sat in the money
market during Thursday's drop and remain there for Friday. Once
again our signal is neutral and weak with probabilities that are somewhat positive, but the amplitudes
greater to the
down side. Our T-Index gained in strength to +5. We continue to wait
for more clarity. Please
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Comments: June
21, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. Our signal, still
neutral, weakened some more and we moved fully into the money market. The probabilities
are somewhat positive, but the amplitudes on the NDX are greater to the
down side. Our T-Index climbed to just below +3. Our signal
components are very mixed and we are waiting for more clarity. Please
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Comments: June
20, 2006
75%
money market, 25% long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), for Wednesday. A
neutral signal with the NDX probabilities leaning higher. We again
reduced our exposure as uncertainty increased. Our T-Index decreased to
+2. I still believe we are going higher and the last two days were
just a pause to digest the sharp bounce off of last week's bottom. We
shall see. Please
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Comments: June
19, 2006
50%
long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), 50% money market for Tuesday. Our
signal remains weak, and we reduced our exposure. T-Index remained firm at
+3. Closing targets for the S&P are 1233 and 1250; for the NDX we have
1540 and 1566. Please
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Comments: June
16, 2006
100%
long (Rydex Dynamic OTC) for Monday. Friday's
small pullback should enable the markets to continue their climb on
Monday. Although our "long" signal is weak, the probabilities
are strong, and we are fully "long". Closing targets for
the S&P are 1241 and 1260; for the NDX we have 1550 and 1584. This was
an excellent week for our accounts and it brought our total gains for 2006
to 25.2%. If you are not already a
client, what are you waiting for? Please
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Comments: June
15, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. Large up day on
Thursday surpassed my expectations and made new highs for the year for our
accounts. We are now up over 25% year to
date. Our T-Index turned positive early this morning, and is now +3. From
this perspective the market bottom was most likely June 13th. I believe a
major switch from frightened to bold took place over the last two days.
Our signal moved to neutral and we moved into the safety of the money
market. We do not trade unless we have a clear signal. I posted another
addition to our long term forecast this afternoon...read it. Please
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Comments: June
14, 2006
100%
long (Rydex Dynamic OTC) for Thursday. Long
term rates jumped Wednesday, as fear subsided in the market place. The
T-Index had a large gain, closing at -2 from the previous -13. This
is good news and it comes a few weeks earlier than I expected. (See longer
term projections.) We have strong positive probabilities for another
small market gain on Thursday. Closing targets for the S&P are
1222 and 1235, for the NDX we have 1524 and 1545. Please
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Comments: June
13, 2006
100%
long (Rydex Dynamic OTC) for Wednesday. Tuesday
the metals, oil and international markets dropped sharply. As investors
avoid risk, these funds have moved into the 10 year notes pushing
interest rates lower. The lower rates have driven our T-Index to new
recent lows of -13. Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1216
and 1230, for the NDX we have 1497 and 1546. The up-side probabilities
have improved and we are fully long. Tuesday marked the 8th day down for
the NDX. Due to the fall in metal and oil prices I up-dated my
posted long term view today. Please
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Comments: June
12, 2006
50%
Long (Rydex Dynamic OTC), 50% money market for Tuesday. Our
accounts did very well on Monday's slide since we were 100%
"short". Tuesday brings us a weak "long" signal
and I have reversed to only 50% "long". Probabilities are only
mildly positive and there is still the possibility of a continued, large,
down side move. The NDX has now gone down 7 days in a row. The
closing price has penetrated the 10/12/05 close, but the low of the day
closed above that of 10/12/05. Our
T-Index was on the money again and is now down to a more solid -11.
Tuesday's closing targets for the S&P are 1228 and 1247, for the NDX we have
1494 and 1555. Please
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Comments: June
9, 2006
100% short
(Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC) for Monday. If we
are correct there is far greater risk being caught on the long side for
Monday as the potential magnitudes are very one sided to the
negative. Our T-Index continues to decline closing at -8. Correctly
forecasting the market is best done using a combination of fundamental and
technical factors. At this time both the fundamentals and technicals
are negative. Monday's closing targets for the S&P are 1238 and
1261, for the NDX we have 1525 and 1557. Please
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Comments: June
8, 2006
50%
Money market, 50% short (Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC) for Friday. A
look at the nice V bottom on the charts suggests that the markets will now
go higher, however I
don't expect the markets will let everyone off the hook this easily.
Our signal has gotten more negative and our T-Index is now -5. On
the plus side our 2nd day index is "Long". The increase in
overseas interest rates generally portrayed as bad for the US economy and
stock market is in my opinion a good thing. We no longer move
international prices on our own and the higher international rates put
pressure on both oil and metal prices. In this global economy that is what
is necessary to fight inflation.
A new long term forecast was posted Tuesday!
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Comments: June
7, 2006
75%
Money market, 25% short (Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC) for Thursday. Our
T-Index gained, but is still negative (-1). It still seems probable
that if our T-Index remains below zero the markets will make new
lows. New long term forecast posted yesterday!
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Comments: June
6, 2006
75%
Money market, 25% short (Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC) for Wednesday. This
was a scary day as the markets marked the 666 day with a sharp dive after
an opening rally. What concerns me most is that Bernanke's comments are
having the opposite effect of what he is looking for. Investors,
responding to his hawkish comments bid up the 10 year notes pushing the
interest rates lower, easing the cost of borrowing money and helping
inflation move higher. Our t-index is now negative, -4, bad
news from a historic perspective. This is further explained in
our long term forecast posted today! Please
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Comments: June
5, 2006
100%
Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. Monday's
strong move down pushed our signal into the "long" zone.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1249 and 1281. For the NDX we have
1557 and 1597. The probabilities look strong, and we are fully
invested. Our T-Index is still barely above the 0 line.
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Comments: June
4, 2006
100%
Money market for Monday. I
trimmed our program again, eliminating the non- productive segments. The
best program is the one that has all the important variables and no
others. Out T-Index was pushed back down to +0. Once again market
forces are telling us that the economy is not strong enough to encourage
companies to borrow. More money is flowing into the 10 year bonds pushing
their yield below 5%. One more raise from the fed should squeeze the
life out of the economy sending the market lower. Please
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Comments: June
1, 2006
100%
Money market for Friday. Strong day for the markets and the NDX
closed on the high of the day. We have mixed signals and the market
looks over-bought, I expect Friday's move will be small in either
direction. T-Index continues to climb slowly. The worse looks to be over
for now, but another test could come in the next two weeks. Please
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Comments: May
31, 2006
100%
Money market for Thursday. Looks like we called the test ok, but
that didn't make us any money since we trade a few minutes prior to the
close and did not see the "close on the low of the day". Our
T-Index improved slightly we are out for Thursday waiting for the signal
to find a direction. Please
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Comments: May
30, 2006
Short:
50% money market, 50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC for Wednesday. Bad down
day, seems the market is testing the low early. T-Index is holding up
closing at +4, but our signal turned negative. Strongly on the
positive side is that the market closed on the low of the day. This
generally means it has reached an extreme level of pessimism and will
rebound the next day. With this in mind we might see a test Wednesday that
holds above the prior low and closes higher for the day. A good part
of this down turn seems to be connected to the weak dollar. Please
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Comments: May
26, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. We managed
to close the week with a small gain. Our accounts are still up a
healthy 16.8% since the beginning of the year. Watch the T-Index this coming
week. If it goes negative there is a good chance that a pull back
will take place, the recent lows will be tested and fail. If the
index climbs we should be out of the woods for a while. The next Fed
meeting takes place in a month and there is enough concern to keep the
market spooked. Probabilities are good for a strong rally on Tuesday.
2nd-day forecast positive for Wednesday. Our T-index slipped to just under
+2. Please
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Comments: May
25, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday. Looks like
we now have a change in attitude. Some optimism has come back into
the market as the market strings two up-days in a row. As we move
into the day prior to a holiday and then into the last few days of the
month we should stay above the lows and even put together some more gains.
Our T-Index closed a bit higher to +3. Earlier today a posted a
correction to the 2nd day forecast for Friday. The 2nd day forecast
for Tuesday is also positive. Our daily signal is positive and
holding steady from yesterday. It looks like we may have seen the bottom
to this drop but a retest is always likely, though that may be more than a
week away.
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Comments: May
24, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday. Our
signal, though still positive is weakening. Correction
Our 2nd day signal for
Friday still positive. Probabilities still positive but also weaker.
The T-Index also weakened to +1. Not a level to inspire
confidence. On the good side the end of the month is coming and with
it, especially on down months, a fair amount of broker inspired buying. So
we may see some lift off as the month comes to a close.
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Comments: May
23, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday. Another
day of lumps. The market is engaged in a preemptive correction. The
aftermarket is very week and the market will most likely open a fair
amount lower. Probabilities are still positive. T-Index still a puny
+2. Please
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Comments: May
22, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Tuesday. The recent
drop in metals and oil should produce a decline in the next core inflation
index for May. This thinking should help support stocks as this month
comes closer to its end, but we are at least a week away. Stocks
managed to hold well above the lows for the session and I think that bodes
well for Tuesday. Our two day index is positive and our T-Index did
not tank, but instead managed to hold firm at a limp +2. Please
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Comments: May
19, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday. This was
another rough week for the markets and we were on the wrong end of the CPI
report so we also got a blast. The Nasdaq 100 fell 8 days in a row. When
any index drops like that it will get your attention. Obviously something
isn't normal. I don't believe the Fed's expected tightening by
itself is enough to cause this action so we have to look elsewhere. The
Dow Jones General mining index has lost about 23% in the last two weeks.
Oil prices have started to fall, oil stocks are down almost 10% in the
same time frame, and the dollar has shown some very recent firming after a
large drop. The real estate boom is considered over. Some of the South
American oil producing countries are taking over multinational oil
companies on their soil. Iraq is still draining our resources. So there is
lots of uncertainty and the market does not like uncertainty. On the
positive side the US market volatility is still
relatively low. Our markets are not greatly overextended and our economy
is not in terrible shape. The 8 day drop is more reflective of the
external worries....but. Our T-index is now at only +2. This is neutral
and neutral is not good. It can go negative at any time and when that
happens most often the market drifts lower soon after. This recent market
drop has produced an oversold condition that should lure the traders to
the table on the long side. Our daily forecast is positive but keep your
eye on the T-Index as it may be the straw..... Please
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Comments: May
18, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Friday. Thursday's
late afternoon plunge caught me by surprise, after all, we had already
gone down seven days and the last time the NDX went down 8 days was 12
years ago in March of 94. Since December of 2000 we had not gone more than
6 days down in a row. So at this point we are way oversold, For the
economy nothing really has changed, but our T-Index also dipped today, now
barely positive at +3. We are taking some lumps, but this is only the
first day that I would consider "odd". The volatility has gone
higher which provides our program with more "emotional"
information, making for better signals. Too much volatility is not good,
but we are at less that 50% of that level. Our Second-day forecast is
still positive. Please
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Comments: May
17, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Thursday. Unfortunately
our program does not forecast surprises in CPI reports. The scariest
part of the report was in the contribution from rents. The super
boom in real estate has left many landlords with underperforming
properties based on the $ value of the property. The solution was to
raise rents, and that response has started to filter through the
economy. As for most of the inflation components, raising interest
rates will not end the climb in rents since this is a long term factor
that moved into place a number years ago. Only destroying the
housing market will reverse the trend by causing real estate prices to
plunge. At some point we will see a crack in the oil and metal
prices long enough to give the Fed reason to pause but a pause may not be
the end of the series. More important for now is what will happen on
Thursday. I expect to see a 50% retracement of today's fall. My
program's closing targets are even more optimistic placing the S&P at
1260 and 1288 and the NDX at 1579 and 1639. Probabilities are now
very strong to the up-side. We are holding our 100% "long"
position. The T-Index improved to +7. Our Second-day forecast is
still positive. Please
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Comments: May
16, 2006
Long
100% Rydex Dynamic OTC for Wednesday. Our
policy of reducing our exposure during uncertainty paid off on Tuesday as
the market went against us. (See prior day's comments). Our signal
has been steadily building strength during this sell off of the last few
days and we are now once again fully invested in the long position.
The Nasdaq100 has taken its worse 20 day beating since January of
2005. And it has now gone down six days straight. But our
T-Index is still positive (barely) at +4 and our longer term pricing
structure has not shown any weakness. A continued positive longer term
forecast depends upon the T-Index holding up. And that pretty much depends
on the Fed not raising rates. Closing targets for Wednesday's
S&P 1285 and 1305; for the NDX we have 1612 and 1650. Please
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Comments: May
15, 2006
Long:
50% Rydex Dynamic OTC, 50% money market for Tuesday.
It looks like all factors are aligned for a higher Tuesday.
Hopefully President Bush's speech will not harm the potential. We
would have been 100% long, but the signal became erratic just prior to the
close, so I reduced the exposure to 50%. The NDX has gone down 5
days in a row and traders are ready to go long. Our T-Index closed
at +7. Closing targets for the S&P are 1288 and 1305, for the
NDX we have 1613 and 1658. Please
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Comments: May
12, 2006
75%
Money market, 25% Long: Rydex Dynamic OTC for Monday. We
have another money market signal. Favoring the up-side is (1)
Our signal has improved to "flat", from slightly negative.
(2) Our two-day signal is positive and (3) our t-index has shown two days
of improvement and is now +8. (4) Probabilities are slightly
positive. Favoring a continuation of the down side is (1) Monday
generally follows Friday. (2) The market failed to rally at the
close. With these as the conditions I am leaning slightly positive
and took a small positive position. I expect we will see some rally
attempts on Monday afternoon. If we miss a rally on Monday there are
better odds that we will get one on Tuesday. The markets showed a bad loss
for the week making our gain look very nice. Closing targets for Monday's
S&P are 1280 and 1302. For the NDX we have 1614 and 1653. Please
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Comments: May
11, 2006
100%
Money market for Friday. Good week for our
accounts. In the money market Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday, and only 25% invested on Monday and 50% invested on Thursday,
yet
we still walked away gaining over 2.2% for the week. I strive to avoid
risks by making transactions only when we have a good probability of
success. Our gains since Jan 1st are now over +20%. Friday's
signal is mixed and only slightly negative, so moved into the money
market. The nice pop in the T-Index back to +7
is hopeful. Our two-day signal is "long" for Monday so
that should be a better time to take a long position if confirmed by the
daily signal. Please
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Comments: May
10, 2006
Short:
50% Rydex Inverse Dynamic OTC, 50% Money market for Thursday. The
Fed raised rates again and pushed the possibility for a pause over till
June 29th when they make their next decision. Our T-Index which is
getting squeezed managed to hold at +3; not a level to inspire confidence
in the economy. Thursday's signal is a weak "short" Our
two day signal was long for Thursday and has gone flat for Friday. Two-day
signals are not as reliable as next-day signals so we followed the
"short", especially with the weak probabilities to support it.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1313 and 1332 for the NDX we have 1668
and 1704. Please
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Comments: May
9, 2006
100%
Money market for Wednesday. Money market
signal for Wednesday. Our Two day signal has gained strength so we may be
headed higher on Thursday. These rate hike fears and realities continue to
squeeze our T-Index which has slipped to +3 anticipating another bump in
short term rates. If the T-Index goes back negative I would expect
the dollar to continue to fall. government deficit + negative
balance of trade + poor economic outlook is doom for the dollar. Please
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Comments: May
8, 2006
100%
Money market for Tuesday. The markets were
little changed while investors ponder the Fed's next move. Wednesday
the decision will be made. We have a "Short" signal, with
a mildly long two day signal. I am in no hurry to take a position as I
prefer to work in clearer water. Tuesday trading should be subdued. Please
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Comments: May
5, 2006
100%
Money market for Monday. Our accounts had a
good week gaining over 3%, and putting our total for year 2006 at +17.8%.
For Monday we have a "money market" signal, backed by the probabilities
and a weak but positive two day signal. It looks like a small pause may be
in order as our signal lost strength the last few days. Our T-Index
closed at +5. Overall, longer term things look positive, but since we are in the
later stages of the bull market investors are getting more selective and I
expect that fewer stocks will participate, though the averages should go
higher. Please
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Comments: May
4, 2006
25%
Long (Dynamic OTC), 75% money market for Friday. It looks
like the upside is running low on steam and we moved most of our capital
to the sidelines. Our two day forecast is barely positive. T-Index firm at
+8. Probabilities are just slightly positive, but that could be all
that is needed to move a bit higher. The S&P looks weaker. Please
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Comments: May
3, 2006
100%
long, Rydex Dynamic OTC. Little has changed
since yesterday. our signal and two day forecast remain positive. Probabilities
are strong and we are holding our "long" position. T-index
closed at +7. A new long term forecast
was posted on Sunday. Please
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Comments: May
2, 2006
100%
long, Rydex Dynamic OTC. Our signal is still
positive, with the two day signal also a plus. Probabilities
are strong and we are holding our "long" position. The
Nasdaq 100 seems to be having a hard time making much headway to the
upside compared to the other indexes. It has not been able to get
above its January high and it is still below its April low. Our
T-Index fell off a bit to +6. A new long term forecast
was posted on Sunday. Please
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Comments: May
1, 2006
100%
long, Rydex Dynamic OTC (name changed from Velocity) for Tuesday. The
market reacted to Bernanke's statements again, this time to the down
side. Talk can briefly influence markets, hard data is more
enduring. The aftermarket premium shrunk at the close so there may
be some more downside in the morning. Our signal was positive and we
moved fully long. The T-Index became more positive moving to a
+9. Our two day forecast is positive. A new long term forecast
was posted on Sunday. Please
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Comments: April
30, 2006
50%
Money market, 50% short (Rydex Venture) for Monday. We
still have no clear signal for direction. Our actual signal is
"out", but the negative probabilities are persuasive and we took
a 50% short position. Our Two day forecast is long. I posted a new
long term forecast 4/30 and focused on the global economy. Read it! Please
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Comments: April
27, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. After an early
drop, Bernanke's comments on the possibility of a rate pause rallied
the markets. There is still a great deal of conflict regarding
market direction and once again we have an "out" or money market
signal. Sorry for the boring week. Our two day
forecast is positive and I expect to see some gains next week in the long
direction. Please
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Comments: April
26, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. I was hoping to
jump back in the market upon my return, but the signals have not been
strong enough to take a position. Wednesday we saw the market gain a
bit of strength upon the close, nudging above the even point for the NDX.
The influence from the fundamentals is downward while the traders are
ready to go long. Our signal is mildly "short". Our
T-index is a +7. Please
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Comments: April
25, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. Although our
signal is slightly positive, our probabilities are leaning negative so I
moved fully into the money market. I see the T-Index remained
positive while I was gone and closed today at +5. Our trip to
Bangkok was very interesting and I will post a number of comments under my
"long term" comments later this week. Thailand has a number of
positives that make it worth while to investigate for investing. Please
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Comments: April
18, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. Then we are moving 20% back into
Velocity for Thursday, holding that position until we return on Tuesday
the 25th. We managed a 0.9% gain for Tuesday
being only partially invested. Our signal for Wednesday is
"out" and we moved fully into the money market. The
T-index pulled back to +4, which is worrisome. It is too
close to the zero mark, with rising oil prices and a Fed that seems
bent on more interest rate hikes, it does not inspire
confidence in the economy. We are taking a small long position (20%
Velocity) while we are away. The position is supported by our longer
term indicators, which are still positive. Please
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Comments: April
17, 2006
75%
Money market, 25% Velocity for Tuesday. We
have an "out" signal with slightly positive overall
probabilities. Our two day signal is also slightly positive. The
T-Index is at +6. Oil closed over $70 a barrel causing some
concern. I am leaving for Bangkok on Tuesday and will return next
Monday. There will be a posting on the 18th then again on the
25th. I hope to have some observations to post in the long term
comments later next week. Please
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Comments: April
13, 2006
100%
money market for Monday. The markets will be
closed for Good Friday. I have recently completed a strong 2
day forecast program and will be posting the results around the end of
April. For about a month we will include the two day forecast along with
the daily forecast. T-Index closed at +8 going in the right
direction for an improved economy. Correction to yesterday's comments
Tuesday, not Monday will be the 73rd day of the year. Please
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Comments: April
12, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. If history is a
guide, we may have a few days left this sluggish market. Over the
past 14 years the NDX lost an average of 5.3% per year between the 23rd
and 73rd day of the year. Monday will mark the 73rd day of this
year. The markets closed very flat not leaving us with much
information to encourage a trade, so we remain in the money market.
T-Index closed at +5. Please
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Comments: April
11, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. Short rally in the
morning failed and never recovered. Longer term looks positive,
shorter term is unclear. We have a money market signal. Oil
prices and Iran nukes added uncertainty to the markets. Please
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Comments: April
10, 2006
100%
Long for Tuesday. Rydex Velocity. Markets
were little changed on Monday. I expect to see the markets move
higher on Tuesday as we have a strong "Long" signal.
Probabilities look good for an up-side that should carry over into
Wednesday. Closing targets for the S&P are 1289 and 1305.
For the Ndx we have 1703 and 1747. Our T-Index remained at +5.
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Comments: April
9, 2006
100%
short for Monday. We managed to nudge our
accounts up only a tenth of a percent for the week. Our T-Index
closed at +5 on Friday, if it continues its upward direction we should see
some positive market movement, especially later in April and May. We
have a moderate "short" signal for Monday and I expect to see
some downside carry over from Friday. A
lower close on Monday would set the stage for a rally starting
Tuesday. Closing targets for the S&P are 1287 and 1301; for the
NDX we have 1700 and 1742. Please
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Comments: April
6, 2006
40%
Long for Friday. The Nasdaq 100 is in a
rally mode, gaining almost 4% over the past 7 trading days. Today's
signal for Friday is a weak " long", but we remain cautious and
have only moved 40% into the market. T-Index moved to +2, too
small a value to have significance. Closing targets for the S&P
are 1302 and 1319; for the NDX we have 1708 and 1760. Please
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Comments: April
5, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. Our T-index slipped
back, just barely into negative territory, closing at 0. Our signal
was leaning negative, but too close to call, so we moved into the money
market. It is best to wait for a clear signal where we have a better
opportunity for a gain. Please
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Comments: April
4, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. Our signal is flat
and the probabilities are mixed, but somewhat positive. Our T-Index
has moved lower and closed at +1. I will be happier when the T-Index
settles in, higher or lower. Please
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Comments: April
3, 2006
100%
Long for Tuesday (Rydex Velocity). The markets
went on a wild ride and ended with most markets only slightly to the
upside. Our T-Index closed at +3 remaining in positive
territory. This together with our positive longer term price patterns
indicate that the general direction is up for the next few months
providing the T-Index does not slip back into negative
territory. Closing targets for the S&P are 1286 and 1303;
for the NDX we have 1676 and 1729. Please
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Comments: March
31, 2006
100%
Short for Monday (Rydex Venture). Our T-index
moved lower to close at +2. This doesn't give us much to go on from
an economic point of view. Our signal however is "short"
and of average strength, so we moved into the Venture fund. Our
closing targets for the S&P are 1289 and 1304; for the NDX we have
1682 and 1718. We closed March a respectable +15.2 % gain for
the first quarter. Please
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Comments: March
30, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. Our T-Index continues
to improve and is now +4.
We like to see the T-index, positive or negative, move away from the zero
mark for greater reliability. The signal for Friday is
"out" so we stayed in the money market. If the t-index
stays positive we should see more up-days than down-days in the coming
months. Please
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Comments: March
29, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. Explosive day for
the NDX. Unfortunately we were on the wrong side of the explosion.
From our T-Index point of view a lot has changed overnight. Our
T-Index has gone positive to +1 after spending about 3 months under
water. A +1 puts it in that never never land which makes
things difficult to forecast, but the longer term price patterns are
positive and leads us to believe that if the T-Index holds up we have a
few months of up-side coming. The mood has improved significantly,
but we have relatively few data points to make a clear decision for
Thursday. Our actual accounts are still short and will exit at the
morning fix. Please
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Comments: March
28, 2006
100%
Short for Wednesday (Rydex Venture). A
positive consumer confidence report started the market to the upside in
early trading, but the Fed's rate rise and warning of more to come turned
the market lower. More often than not the market rallies after a Fed
move, regardless of direction, but our signal is still short and the
signal strength remains steady, indicating to me that more down-side is on
the way. The probabilities and the amplitudes are very one sided and
negative. A bright spot was our t-index which climbed again to -5.
Though still negative, it is within striking distance of going
positive. Closing targets for the S&P are 1280 and 1301, for the
NDX we have 1635 and 1686. Anyone looking to get a head start in opening
an account with us please contact Rydex
Funds to get your Rydex account started. Please
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Comments: March
27, 2006
100%
Short for Tuesday (Rydex Venture). With the
Fed meeting Tuesday the markets made some micro adjustments and ground to
a halt. I don't like trading on days with very little price
movement, but the probabilities are leaning lower. T-Index improved
a bit to -12. Expect another rate hike. Please
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Comments: March
24, 2006
100%
Long for Monday (Rydex Velocity). The markets
lost a small amount of ground over the week while we picked up about 2%
for our accounts. Monday looks positive with strong probabilities,
but the data is scarce, leaving us with less of sample than we would like
to see. Our program is telling us that the traders will be long and
that overall the negative cloud of the past week has lessened. The
movements are still small so I don't expect much of a move either
way. If we do go up on Monday, we could easily see the direction
reversed for Tuesday. T-Index is -17. Closing targets for
Monday are 1297 and 1311 for the S&P; 1688 and 1691 for the NDX.
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Comments: March
23, 2006
100%
Short for Friday (Rydex Venture). Thursday was
only a mildly negative day but it appears to be setting the stage for a
another larger drop on Friday. For Friday the probabilities have gotten
more negative and the negative leaning amplitudes would lead me to expect
to see some heavy selling, but balancing this, we have the Vix index
decreasing as the market is dropping, so investors are not skittish and
the moves should not be excessively large. The good news
for our accounts is that today's close pushed our gain for 2006 over the +20%
mark. Thanks
for all the calls and interest. Although we can open unlimited
accounts in California we are limited to 5 per state outside of California
until we individually register in them which takes a lot of time. So if you
have an interest in joining with us please let us know so that you will
not be disappointed. We are taking names at this time and we can get
you some of the materials that you need. Our new lower rates are only
1% per year for accounts over $78,000. Below $78,000 our rates
are a flat $15 per week. Once we approve you, just open an
account with Rydex funds and we will manage it. (we never hold your
money). Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1289 and
1310. For the NDX we have 1635 and 1687. T-Index gained some,
to -11. Please
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Comments: March
22, 2006
100%
Short for Thursday (Rydex Venture). After
Tuesday's close Microsoft announced a delay in launch of their new
operating system product. This knocked down their after-market stock
price, as well as prices for the pc builders and chip-makers
causing, at one point, a 1% drop in the Nasdaq 100 futures. But as
we mentioned yesterday, we expected that the traders would be positioned
"long" on Wednesday and that seemed to be the case, moving the
market a little higher. If Thursday goes lower it looks like we will
get even more downside that could carryover into the beginning of next
week. But of course it is hard enough to call one day in advance so
the rest is just a guess. Our T-Index closed at -18. Closing targets
for the S&P are 1294 and 1311. For the NDX we have 1656 and
1694. Check out our new long term
forecast posted this past weekend. Please
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Comments: March
21, 2006
50%
Short, 50% Money market for Wednesday. (Rydex Venture). I
did say to expect choppy trading, but was not expecting it all in one day.
The markets started off heading lower, then turned and made
significant gains and turned once again to end lower, providing our
clients with a scary ride and a nice gain for the day. I
believe the traders may try to position themselves for the up-side on
Wednesday and this should keep this market from going much further down
during the day, but more downside could follow later in the week.
Overall it still looks negative, but not by much, so we reduced our
downside exposure. Closing targets for the S&P are 1287 and
1304. For the NDX we have 1651 and 1692. Check out our new long term
forecast posted this past weekend. Please
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Comments: March
20, 2006
100%
Short for Tuesday. (Rydex Venture). Probabilities
are strongly favoring the down side for Tuesday.
Our T-Index fell some more to -19. The 10 year
yields are back to where they peaked in early November and still have not
gone above the level they reached in May of 2004, when the short term
rates were below 1%. It does not look like the Feds effort to
influence and raise the long term rates is really working. Most
stock indices are now near their highs and seem to be topping, so some
choppy trading could be in store this week. The NDX is however,
still 4% below its January top and it is our favorite to trade. A
new long term forecast was posted over the weekend so take a look. A
special thanks to "Chico" who mentioned us last week on
one of the trading forums, giving us a nice jump in hits. We do appreciate
everyone who spreads the word. Please
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Comments: March
17, 2006
100%
Long for Monday (Rydex Velocity). Our accounts
gained another 1% this week, bringing our total to 16.9% since Jan
1. I expect the markets to go higher on Monday, but probably pull
back on Tuesday. Our T-Index fell to -15 making a sustained rally less
likely. Forecast closing prices for Monday's S&P are 1301 and 1316,
for the NDX we see 1668 and 1705. A new long term forecast will be
posted this weekend, with some observed economic comparisons to
England. Please
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Comments: March
16, 2006
100%
Short for Friday. The morning opened with a
rally as investors responded to the news and a fall in interest
rates. The T-Index however became more negative and closed at -15.
For Friday our "short" signal remained steady and the
probabilities became more negative. On the bull's side, the
NDX closed on the low which usually results in a rally the following day
(68% of the time over the last 14 years). Closing targets for the
S&P are 1299 and 1309. For the NDX we have 1653 and 1692. Please
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Comments: March
15, 2006
100%
Short for Thursday. Though not a super up-day
the market did carry a little further than I expected for Wednesday.
My gut feel is the market could continue on this upward path another day,
but our signal is a mild "short" and we are have moved our
accounts into the Rydex Venture fund that moves opposite the market.
The T-Index closed at -7. Target closes for the S&P are 1295 and
1309. For the NDX we have 1676 and 1708. Please
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Comments: March
14, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. I exited Tuesday's
position at the morning fix (as I stated in yesterday's forecast) and
escaped with only a small ding. The wind is pretty much out of this
rally and if it does go higher on Wednesday that should be the top.
With our T-Index turned lower once again and closed at -8 it looks like
the rally will have to wait. I now expect we will see a down leg
prior to the run-up. Please
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Comments: March
13, 2006
100%
Short (Rydex Venture) for Tuesday. This signal
fluctuated after the close and is not reliable.
I arrived
back from England Sunday night and have a number of economic comments on
the trip that I will include in the next long term forecast. I
should have that forecast posted later this week. Last Monday the
T-Index made a jump to single negative digits closing this Monday at -1.
The long term rates have started to rise. I will also comment on
this as it relates to the long term forecast. For Tuesday I expect a
minor down day. Our signal was negative, but not very strong and
actually turned positive well after the close, luckily this does not
happen very often, we will exit the market at the morning fix. If the
T-Index succeeds in climbing above zero in a substantial way we should
expect a strong rally will come along with it, or at least not be very far
behind. We have another Federal Reserve meeting in two
weeks. Please
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Comments: March
2, 2006 ...next posting March 13, 2006
100%
Short (Rydex Venture) for Friday, then move to money market at the
close. We have a negative signal, negative probabilities
and the potential down-side amplitude looks large. T-Index did
improve to -16. If we get the down-move on Friday I would expect it
to carry over into Monday with a small recovery on Tuesday. That is
my best guess for next week. Closing targets for Friday's
S&P are 1274 and 1299. For the NDX we have 1656 and 1712. All
our accounts will be moved into the money market for next week. I
will be back Monday the 13th with a forecast. Have a good
week. Sorry, we are not taking any new accounts until late
April. Please
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Comments: March
1, 2006
100%
Money market for Thursday. Our probabilities
are now slightly positive, but the potential downside slightly exceeds the
upside and we have moved fully into the money market. I will be
in London later this week and all of next week and will not be trading or
posting any comments. I may get one more posting in on Thursday
if possible. Our accounts will be moved into the money market for
that time period as our current information does not warrant a position in
either direction. The T-Index had a strong improvement today and
closed at -21. Sorry, we are not taking any new accounts until late
April. Please
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Comments: Feb.
28, 2006
50%
Short (Rydex Venture), 50% money market for Wednesday. Nice
way to close out February with back to back gains for our
accounts. We are now up over 16% for the first two months of the
year. The T-Index went sharply lower to -28, adding fuel to the market
drop. I expect the market to show some limited downside
follow-through on Wednesday, but reduced our exposure as our signal became
less intense. Closing targets for the S&P are 1263 and 1289 for
the NDX we have 1651 and 1687. Please
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Comments: Feb.
27, 2006
100%
Short for Tuesday (Rydex Venture). The markets
obliged us with a good up-move on Monday, but as I suggested on Friday, I
do not expect to see it go much higher. We reversed our position for
Tuesday expecting a moderate down side. The T-Index is holding in
the low -20's, closing at -22. Closing targets for the S&P are
1284 and 1300, for the NDX we have 1677 and 1711. Please
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Comments: Feb.
24, 2006
100%
Long for Monday. (Rydex Velocity). Good week for us
as our accounts are now up 10.1% for the first two months of the
year. Not much happened on Friday but Monday looks like it
will go higher. I changed the way I calculate the probabilities,
this should improve the accuracy some. Closing targets for Monday's
S&P are 1283 and 1301, for the NDX we have 1664 and 1695.
T-Index remained unchanged at -23. I do not expect the rally to
carry much past Monday. Please
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Comments: Feb.
23, 2006
100%
Short for Friday. (Rydex Venture). I exited
our 25% long position at Thursday's AM fix. Friday's signal is fully
"short". Our T-Index is at -23. (correction) After
reviewing the closing information it looks like the rally may resume
earlier than I expected, should see an up-turn Monday or
Tuesday. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1274 and 1296. For the NDX we have 1639 and 1688. Please
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Comments: Feb.
22, 2006
25%
Long (Rydex Velocity), 75% money market for Thursday. Once
again we
have a money market signal and the probabilities are mixed. We held
on to our small position with the expectation that the market would at
least attempt to test Wednesdays highs. The aftermarket is weak so
we may end up giving back some of Wednesday's gain. Closing targets for
Thursday's S&P are 1287 and 1298; for the NDX we
have 1655 and 1695. Please
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Comments: Feb.
21, 2006
25%
Long (Rydex Velocity), 75% money market for Wednesday. We
have a money market signal and the probabilities are mixed.
Tuesday's drop has relieved the negative pressure substantially and a
small recovery is likely giving us a small nod to the positive side.
Closing targets for Wednesday's S&P are 1273 and 1291 for the NDX we
have 1631 and 1670. Please
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Comments: Feb.
17, 2006
100%
Short for Tuesday. This is our first
directional signal in a week. I expect this down turn to be short
and the rally to resume on Wednesday, but will have a better insight on
Tuesday. Our T-Index dropped to -20, a bad sign for the economy. With Monday being a holiday the closing targets for
Tuesday's S&P are 1273 and 1295. For the NDX we have 1642 and
1693. Please
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Comments: Feb.
16, 2006
100%
Money market for Friday. We hate to miss the
up-swing, but since we trade in both directions every day is an
opportunity, and we only take the most advantageous. Probabilities
have improved and the closing targets for the S&P are 1284 and
1295. For the NDX we have 1674 and 1703. Please
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Comments: Feb.
15, 2006
100%
Money market for Thursday. I am waiting for a
stronger signal. Without a strong signal the market is more likely
to be swayed by the least bit of economic news and our objective is to
make money for our clients with the least risk. The T-Index closed
at -13. Probabilities are mixed. Please
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Comments: Feb.
14, 2006
100%
Money market for Wednesday. The markets gave
us a Valentines day gift. Our T-Index held flat at -14 and we ended
the day with slightly positive probabilities. Targets for the
S&P are 1269 and 1643. Wednesday's targets for the NDX are 1643 and
1677. Please
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Comments: Feb.
13, 2006
100%
Money market for Tuesday. The probabilities
are flat, but we have potential for a greater down side move.
Barron's negative article added fuel to Google's recent dive and it took
the NDX along with it. The charts show that the drop was stopped
above Friday's low giving hope to the up-side, but I would have liked to
see some more of a recovery from today's low. Our T-Index is now
-14. Please
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Comments: Feb.
10, 2006
100%
Long (Rydex Velocity) for Monday. The market
headed lower in the morning then closed higher on Friday. The
up-side probabilities improved and the market remained somewhat oversold
all pointing to a continuation of Friday's rally on Monday. Our
T-Index closed at -15 and lost ground for the week. On January 9th
the T-Index went negative. The market peaked two days later and the NDX
has lost about 5.4% from that point. Don't expect this tight a
correlation every time. A positive T-Index, is however, good for the
market and something we would like to see if we are to expect a sustained
rally. Please
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Comments: Feb.
9, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. Thursday we saw the
T-Index fall to -16 and the NDX give up most of Wednesday's gains.
The (NDX) market is once again oversold, while our signal remains in
the money market reflecting additional negative influences. This
leaves our accounts slightly positive for the week and up 9.6% for
2006. Please
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Comments: Feb.
8, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. We called
the direction (see previous comments), but missed the move, however we are
still up for the week. Wednesday's T-Index improved
to a -9. Having this number go above above zero would
be a big help in getting the market significantly higher. Our signal
continues flat and the energy from being oversold is mostly, but not
totally, dissipated. Probabilities are mildly positive. Any rest on
Thursday could set the stage for a rally that could last through
Monday. Please
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Comments: Feb.
7, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday.
The NDX is now "oversold" by our indicators making the
most likely next big move to the up-side. Our signal however is
"out" and the probabilities are mixed so we moved into the money
market. T-Index closed at -11. Please
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Comments: Feb.6, 2006
100%
Long for Tuesday. I reversed direction at the
close and moved 100% into the Rydex Velocity fund. We have a
moderately strong "long" signal and should see some upside on
Tuesday. If we go lower instead, it would set the market up for a
strong rebound later in the week. A strong up-move on Tuesday,
however, would most likely deplete the momentum early. Closing
targets for Tuesday's S&P are 1262 and 1275 for the NDX we see 1643
and 1689. Our T-Index closed the day at -10.
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Comments: Feb.
3, 2006
100%
Short for Monday. I expect we will see more
negative carryover into Monday. Our signal is a strong
"short" with probabilities to match. This week, like the
month before, has gone well for our accounts, now up 9.4% from the
start of this year, ( 5 weeks). Closing targets for Monday for the
S&P are 1251 and 1271. For the NDX we have 1628 and 1685.
A down Monday would go a long way for an up Tuesday. Our T-Index
closed out the week at -13. Please
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Comments: Feb.
2, 2006
100%
Short for Friday. We moved out of the money
market and into the Rydex Venture fund 100% for Friday. We
have an Extra strong "short" signal that rarely occurs. My
guess is that we will see this market go down a few more days and a couple
of percent. Closing targets for Friday's S&P are 1257 and 1281
for the NDX we have 1641 and 1711. Our T-Index held at -10. Please
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Comments: Feb.
1, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. Investors seem to
be looking for an excuse to send the market higher. The Google scare
started the decline last night and Boeing's good results prevented the
rout. Once more we have a weak "short" signal and mixed
probabilities. Our T-Index climbed back to -10. Please
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Comments:
Jan 31, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. The markets again closed little
changed. We closed with a weak "short" signal, and our probabilities
were completely flat. For most of the day however, we had a
very strong "long" signal. With this type of confusion I
withdrew into the money market to await a clearer signal. The Fed
raised rates again, inching our T-Index further negative to -15.
Overall it was a good month for our accounts closing the month with a gain
of 6.6% while spending 30% of the time in the money market.
The aftermarket looks extremely negative indicating a lower
opening. Please
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Comments:
Jan 30, 2006
50%
Short for Tuesday. I am holding on to the
short position. Markets were little changed today as investors
adjust positions prior to the Fed meeting. Small market changes make
my job more difficult, since larger changes mean more emotional
involvement on the part of investors, and a large part of forecasting is
reading those emotions. T-Index closed at -10. Please
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Comments:
Jan 27, 2006
50%
Short for Monday. We closed out our long
position and moved 50% into the Rydex Venture fund for Monday's
trading. Signal is a "short" and the probabilities support
the down-side. Only up-side potential I see is that there is a tendency
for a Monday market to continue in Friday's direction. So maybe we
will see some early up-side. Friday took off higher after the
foreign markets surged overnight. The GDP report showed the growth
near 1%, much less than expected, but that shouldn't sway the Fed since
they are looking at real estate which continued at a fast pace in the last
quarter. Friday's closes were a little higher than our
targets. Closing targets for the S&P on Monday are 1274 and
1290. For the NDX look to 1686 and 1728. Please
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Comments:
Jan 26, 2006
20%
Long, 80% money market for Friday. This is
turning out to be a good month for us, our accounts are now up over 6%. The stock market's
up-side momentum should continue, but the Fed meeting next week could put
a wrinkle in the path. Our signal turned flat with probabilities
only slightly favoring the up-side, so we reduced our exposure to 20%. Our T-Index improved to -10 as the spread between the 90 day
bills and 10 year notes widened. The market has fully priced in a
.25% rate increase at next weeks Fed meeting. Closing targets for
the S&P are 1268 and 1282. For the NDX look to 1671 and
1708. Please
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Comments:
Jan 25, 2006
100%
Long for Thursday. Hold 100% in the Rydex
Velocity fund. The upside probabilities remain strong. Our
signal is a strong "long". Our T-Index climbed to -13, a
good size gain. Closing targets for the S&P are 1257
and 1274. For the NDX we have 1657 and 1700. Please
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Comments:
Jan 24, 2006
100%
Long for Wednesday. Now 100% in the Rydex
Velocity fund. Our
long position worked out for Tuesday and we doubled it for Wednesday. A
strong "long" signal, positive probabilities and a marginal
oversold condition makes for a more positive outlook on the trade.
T-Index sulked back to -22. Closing targets for the S&P are 1260
and 1278. For the NDX we have 1662 and 1706. Please
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Comments:
Jan 23, 2006
50%
Long for Tuesday. Although the market is still
over-sold and the NDX closed lower on Monday, the movement was so small as
to add doubt as to a rebound on Tuesday. We have a short signal that was
wavering, adding to the confusion. All told, we took a 50% long
position, but are not fully comfortable in the reliability of the
forecast. Closing targets for S&P 1254 and 1271. For the NDX
1658 and 1695. Please
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Comments:
Jan 20, 2006
100%
money market for Monday. We have a short
signal and the probabilities support it. Add to this a Monday market
generally follows Friday's direction especially if it is down. On
the opposite side we now have an oversold condition and the markets can
react strongly to the upside under these circumstances. So I chose to stay
in the money market. The current dismay is caused by tension with Iraq and
slower earnings growth. If Monday closes lower look for a turn
around Tuesday. I expect a sell off in the morning followed by a
partial recovery. Closing targets for the S&P are 1250 and 1270,
for the NDX we have 1643 and 1695. Our T-Index is -20.
Reflecting that the Fed's latest interest rate raise has put our economy
under pressure. We seem to have a Fed that is having trouble
distinguishing between home grown inflation that can be cured by raising
interest rates, and externally caused inflation which can't. Please
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Comments:
Jan 19, 2006
100%
money market for Friday. Thursday's market
moved in line with our probabilities. The probabilities for Friday
are mixed while we have a weak short signal. I decided to remain on
the sidelines waiting for a stronger signal in either direction. I
expect the next big move will be higher as we are still near an oversold
condition. Some strength in the T-Index as it improved to -16.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1278 and 1291. For the NDX we have
1712 and 1743. Please
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Comments:
Jan 18, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. The probabilities
are mildly positive, but there may be a day or two more downside.
Our signal calls for the "money market" as we await a turn
around. T-Index fell a point to -22. Weakness in Japan
and US tech issues pushed the markets lower, but not severely.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1269 and 1286 for the NDX we have 1693
and 1734. Please
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Comments:
Jan 17, 2006
50%
Short for Wednesday. We continue short.
The market is doing its best to not go down very
much, but Tuesday's aftermarket looks like that has changed. If the
aftermarket prices are correct expect significantly lower prices in the
morning. Our T-Index continues lower at -21. If
prices continue lower Wednesday and Thursday there is a good chance we
could start back up on Friday. Closing targets for the S&P 1270
and 1291. For the Ndx look to 1701 and 1756. Please
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Comments:
Jan 16, 2006
50%
Short for Tuesday. We exchanged 50% of our
Rydex Venture position for the money market. Looks like we will not
have too much of a pause here and the market will most likely return to
the upside later in the week. The T-Index has plunged, now at -17.
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Comments:
Jan 12, 2006
100%
short for Friday. We are holding our position
in the Rydex Venture fund. The T-Index closed at a new low, -8.
Probabilities are somewhat mixed, but are leaning to the downside
especially with regard to the potential size of movement. Please
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Comments:
Jan 11, 2006
100%
short for Thursday. The Ndx has gone higher the
last seven days. The T-Index is now at -1. I am
expecting lower prices over the next four days as the market digests its
gains. Our signals are short. Please
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Comments:
Jan 10, 2006
100%
short for Wednesday. We stayed 100% in the
Rydex Venture fund for Wednesday. Our T-Index gained some to -2.
Tuesday the NDX managed to close higher after spending most of the day in
the red. Our probabilities continue to favor the down side and this
market is very over bought. This level of
"overbought" occurs about 8 days a year and usually
results in a small pull back. Please
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Comments:
Jan 9, 2006
100%
short for Tuesday. Our "short"
signal continues to get more powerful and we remain in our position.
This market is now overbought from a short term cycle point of view.
0ur T-Index is now negative at -7. This indicates a condition
associated with a deterioration in the
economy. Closing targets for the S&P are 1280 and 1293.
For the Ndx we have 1712 and 1756. Please
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Comments:
Jan 8, 2006
100%
short for Monday. After a strong gain last
Tuesday and three consecutive days in the money market we are ready to
follow our strong short signal for Monday. This time our probabilities
are supporting our signal. Our T-index held at +0. Closing
targets for the S&P are 1276 and 1291 for the NDX we have 1716 and
1749. Please
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Comments:
Jan 5, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. T-Index stayed
at Zero. We got a weak sell signal once again for
Friday, Probabilities are slightly positive, but our cyclical
information is also showing that the market should be going lower.
Closing targets for the S&P are 1268 and 1280 and for the NDX we have
1690 and 1718. Please
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Comments:
Jan 4, 2006
100%
money market for Thursday. T-Index is now Zero.
I expect to go negative over the next few days. We got a weak sell signal
again for Thursday, with more mixed probabilities and once again we
stayed in the money market. Our recent posting of the long term forecast talks
about what the inverted yield curve will probably mean to the
market. Please
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Comments:
Jan 3, 2006
100%
money market for Wednesday. Tuesday's strong
up day gives us a 4%+ gain for 2006. We got a weak sell signal for
Wednesday, but with the mixed probabilities I felt the best move was into
the money market. Our recent posting of the long term forecast talks
about what the inverted yield curve will probably mean to the
market. Please
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Comments:
Jan 2, 2006
Long
for Tuesday, 100% Velocity. Our T-Index closed
the year at +8 this is so close to 0 or negative that caution must be used
in initiating any long term buys. This past weeks drop was influenced by
tax considerations. What will happen if the rates invert? New long
term forecast was posted today. Please
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