|
Daily
Market Commentary (and
next day's position)
Comments
made on Oct. 21, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close with our neutral
signal. The daily changes continue to be mostly small extending this low
volatility condition.
|
Comments
made on October 16, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
reversed to the long side for Monday. Politics dominates
the news and volatility remains low. Both gold and the stock
market have moved higher over the past two years. It is as if
both inflation concerns and the hope of low interest are driving
the markets, but since high interest rates are inflationary on
their own as they work through the system pushing mortgage
payments and car loans higher and those rates remain relatively
high it may be the stock market that is pushing closer to its
limits. The 10 year rates seem to already be at a place
where going any higher will have a negative impact on stock
prices.
|
Comments
made on October 17, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
30.0%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
40%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
30%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
40%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
20%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| This
is our first down signal in a number of weeks. It is partial
short and the main trend is higher.
|
Comments
made on October 16, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
NDX closed hardly changed as the negativity from ASML with
Tuesday's drop carried into Wednesday. We are holding long
but the sentiment could continue to influence trades in
Tech.
|
Comments
made on October 15, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Bad
chip expectations sent the market lower on Tuesday. We
moved long at the close looking for a rebound.
|
Comments
made on Oct. 14, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close with our neutral
signal. The daily changes are mostly small under this low
volatility condition that has existed for over a
month.
|
Comments
made on October 11, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Janan
Ganesh a key writer for the Financial Times suggests that both
Netanyahu and Putin are prolonging their respective wars,
waiting to see if Donald Trump will win the election as he is
more likely to allow them free reign without substantial
consequences. It is certain that with the uncertainty of the
election outcome nothing will change over the next
month. Also remember, tariffs are very inflationary.
They add to the the cost of goods purchased just like a sales
tax. They can be enacted on food or goods and when applied to
lumber it adds to the price of housing. Trump installed tariffs
his first term and pledges to do it again. The 99 cent
stores and dollar discount stores provide many necessities to
the poor and sell mostly imported products. Tariffs would
greatly endanger the survival of these stores and even if they
survived the rise in prices would have damaging impact on the
poor. There are many reasons to support a candidate and
tariffs are one of them.
The biggest problem, especially in large
cities is the cost of housing. Home prices in our largest cities
have increased from 10 times to over 25 times in the past 50
years, rents have gone up about as much. In small communities
housing prices have increase about four to five times during
that time frame. Some of this is the result of gentrification
which brings with it both good and bad effects. Neither party
has effectively slowed the spiraling cost of real estate and
more often both have encouraged it. This is to be expected
under the structure of our political system and real estate
developers have a big say at the local levels in politics. Often
politicians are supported by these developers on the candidates
way up. Here is where term limits could help.
|
Comments
made on Oct. 10, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close with our neutral
signal. Probabilities are positive but there is potential for a
larger drop on the down side than rise on the upside supporting
our neutral position.
|
Comments
made on October 9, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 1X fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Our
signal remains long and we decided to remain in the S&P
rather than switch to the NDX which continues to be more
volatile than the S&P.
|
Comments
made on October 8, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 1X fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
SPX500 2x fund |
| The
markets are flipping from up to down to up again. For Wednesday
we have a small long position but switched to the S&P500
fund rather than the NDX which appears to have overshot on the
upside.
|
Comments
made on Oct. 7, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Perhaps
the market players decided that the follow up rate cuts would be
less than the recent half percentage point cut. That most likely
sent the interest rates higher and under the current low
volatility conditions it is easy for any immediate news to have
more market impact.
|
Comments
made on October 4, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Good
economic news sent the markets higher on Friday while fears that
Israel might target Iran's oil fields in response to Iran's missile
attacks sent oil prices higher. Meanwhile Biden called for
Israel to find alternate targets. We took a small
"Long" position for Monday.
|
Comments
made on Oct. 3, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Dockworker
strike has been suspended until mid January. This did not have
an immediate impact on the NDX in the aftermarket. It will take
away some inflation fears.
|
Comments
made on October 2, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The VP
debate made Vance appear more normal, and by default made Trump
appear even further to the fringe. But that did not really
matter. Oil prices are stabilizing and the threat of war remains
as does the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts.
|
Comments
made on Oct. 1, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Iran's
missile attack on Israel raised oil prices and sent the markets
lower. The markets seem to be returning to where they
started about a month ago. Volatility is on the low side.
|
Comments
made on Sept 30, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
NDX was lower for most of the day but ran higher around twelve
minutes prior to the close, gaining .26% on the day.
Tuesday is the first day of the month and that's generally
positive but has not done much in the past two
years.
|
Comments
made on Sept 29, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We are
back in California after spending time In NYC. I met with my
nephew who is a trader on the floor of the New York Stock
Exchange and got a refresher view of the markets from his point
of view. The big read is that most of the trading takes place
within the last few minutes of the market.day and that
percentage is increasing. 50 years ago when I was a
broker, the morning trades were more significant than they are
now. But still the opening trades and closing trades make up a
significant amount of the day's trading. I am pleased with
the past months results reflecting the elimination and
dependence on the late afternoon price action.
|
Trading,
but out of office. Sept 11 - Sept 27
Comments
September 26, 2024 Position for Friday: Money Market
Comments
September 25, 2024 Position for Thursday:Partial Long
Comments
September 24, 2024 Position for Wednesday: Money Market
Comments
September 23, 2024 Position for Tuesday:Partial Long
Comments
September 22, 2024 Position for Monday: Money Market
Comments
September 19, 2024 Position for Friday: Money Market
Comments
September 18,2024 Position for Thursday: Money Market
Comments
September 17,2024 Position for Wednesday: Partial Long
Comments
September 16,2024 Position for Tuesday: Partial Long
Comments
September 15,2024 Position for Monday: Partial Long
Comments
September 12, 2024 Position for Friday:Money market
Comments
September 11, 2024 Position for Thursday:Money market
Comments
made on September 10, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Inflation
report on Wednesday. The FED is going through the motions and
the results will be beneficial in the long term.
|
Comments
made on Sept 9, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Monday
had a bounce and The after market is slipping. We remain in the
money market.
|
Comments
made on Sept 8, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Excessive
down day on Friday. Our signal is split and we moved into
the Monday market.
|
Comments
made on September 5, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
36.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
22%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| In
the long scheme of things Friday's employment figures will not
matter. As they are nothing compared to the 800,000
over-reported jobs from the past year. Another school shooting,
4 dead, leads us to wonder if either presidential candidate
could force an end to the use of automatic weapons and the
amount of control the NRA has over America. Polls show
about 60% of the population would like stricter controls.
|
Comments
made on September 4, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
36.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
22%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
expect that the extreme momentum has passed but can't tell for
sure. Our signal remains "long" and without the need
for the up-to-the-minute input the reliability has
increased. The gloves are off politically and the news has
gotten silly. Tesla launched the world's first
"Giga-train" in Germany, electric powered. Janan
Ganesh a writer for the Financial Times reflected upon how would
another Trump loss impact America society. It appears that there
is no one of his character to take his place. Interesting read.
|
Comments
made on September 3, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
36.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
27%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
22%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Tuesday
seemed to be an overreaction to the ISM manufacturing index PMI
numbers which were up slightly from last month and down slightly
from last year. Holding a little below the 50% mark shows
manufacturing continue to contract. But with rate cuts
coming most likely this month the markets move lower was in my
mind excessive for the information. Meanwhile I have been
successful in totally eliminating the up to the minute influence of the
late-in-the-day trading. It took a long time but the program is
more stable and I expect substantially better going forward. We
just need to get past this recent spat of over correcting
behavior.
|
Comments
made on August 27, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
50.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved long for Tuesday.
|
Comments
made on August 29, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
37.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
50%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
30%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
50%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
30%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| I
expect some limited down side action on Friday as we have a down
signal with increased exposure the first one in a while. The
market remains elevated and may have exceeded recent
expectations. Concerns remain regarding the FED
getting out from behind the decelerating growth rate of the
economy, especially in light of the over reporting of 800,000
jobs over the past 12 months.
|
Comments
made on August 28, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
markets fell Wednesday in anticipation of insufficient guidance
from NVIDIA. Results weren't bad but the aftermarket took
it down another 7% and as of this writing the NDX was lower by
another 1.25%. Our signal was leaning lower but the reaction to
NVIDIA was like rolling dice so we just pulled over to the curb.
Super Micro Computer was down 19.5% Wednesday and another 6.5%
after the close. I just got listed on the NDX last month and has
fallen over 30% since then. Some shady people that they removed
may have resurfaced, so there are problems there not related to
economics.
|
Comments
made on August 27, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
33.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| All
eyes are on NiVIDA's earnings report. How much will be too
little? Not much else to twist the markets. Revised indictments
for Donald Trump to adjust
for the Supreme court's road block.
|
Comments
made on August 26, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
probabilities of going higher or lower on Tuesday look about
even. Tuesday often goes opposite Mondays direction. But our
signal does lean to the down side as their is a risk of a larger
down move. The rate cuts support the upside and the soft
corporate buying supports the down side. We moved into the money
market.
|
Comments
made on August 25, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
33.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
19.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
increased our long exposure
by about 10%. The new Israel - Hezbollah fighting could be a
downer, but over a day has passed and it does not seem to be a
major concern. The FED will be cutting rates and that should
provide some level of continued market support.
|
Comments
made on August 22, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
22.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
22.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
18.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
signal switched at the close to leaning short, so we will move
to neutral at the morning fix in the 2x funds. The 800,000 jobs
that did not happen represent about 1/2 of one percent of the
total employed. About 10% of workers are self employed. Our
signal has been calling for reduced exposure so we are not
highly exposed.
|
Comments
made on August 21, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Over
800,000 jobs credited to the growth in the economy this year
never happened according to the slower but more accurate update
on job creation. But that must be good news for the Fed cutting
rates since the indices went higher today, At the close we moved
into the money market as our signal was leaning a touch to the
negative.
|
Comments
made on August 20, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
33.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
33%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
19.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
maintained our small long direction but increased our exposure
by about 10%
|
Comments
made on August 19, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
22.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
22.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
30.0%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
18%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Still
not a strong signal but the probabilities look strong and we
took the low exposure position. DNC tonight should allow the
market to continue higher.
|
Comments
made on August 18, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
run up should be ready to stop about here. Our signal is
leaning lower and the longer term short signal is now in day
two. I am waiting for a stronger signal in either direction to
get back in.
|
Comments
made on August 15, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| As
Kamala Harris continues to grow in the polls and Kamala starts
to shift her policies more to the center It appears that the
stock market has taken notice. This is no longer a race
between two old men with less than consistent mental acuity. Now
with 95% of the voters younger than 80 those voters see more of
themselves in the new contender and they also see hope. That
could be what is generating such a surge in the markets. Looking
in the other direction we see our longer term interest rata
signal switch from long to short the first time since March of
2023.
|
Comments
made on August 14, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Recent
signals have been very small. There is some concern about war
escalation in Russia and the Middle East and perhaps a too slow
FED. Hard to tell what the election influence is. The
market seems to like it all after the sell-off from mid July to
early August.
|
Comments
made on August 13, 2024 Current
position for Wedesday
| Primary |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
33.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
33.3%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
33.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
signal turned mildly long with a low exposure. Probabilities
look good. This rally has had some strong days so it may not
have the longevity of a stealth rally, where the daily changes
are consistently higher but under 1% each.
|
Comments
made on August 12, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| This
is our fourth neutral signal with negative leaning. The market
continues to show gains. I am waiting for a stronger
signal.
|
Comments
made on August 10, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| This
is our third neutral signal with negative leaning. Currently
there is an armed excursion into Russia by Ukraine and potential
for escalating war in the Middle East. This has not greatly
increased the price of oil which is odd. The dollar is
holding in the 103 area and crypto's Bitcoin is about 58,500.
Not much has changed.
|
Comments
made on August 8, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Big
rally most likely based on early morning release of employment
figures. This time they are saying things are not that bad, with
a positive interpretation, and not a fearful one about the Fed
not needing to hurry. Whatever way the market goes the media can
put a fitting interpretation on the news.
|
Comments
made on August 7, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
NDX had an early gain of over 2% which turned into a loss of
over 1% by the close. Our signal is neutral to low grade short
so we moved into the money market.
|
Comments
made on August 6, 2024 Current
position for Wedesday
| Primary |
Long |
29.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
39%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
29.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
39%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
39%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
23%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market closed higher but gave back some early gains. We
held our long position and increased it about 10%.
|
Comments
made on August 5, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
26.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
35.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
26.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
35.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
35.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
21.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market partially recovered from Monday's heavy early morning
selling but remained lower. Sharp Monday market drops generally
lead to good Tuesday rebounds. Also the Vix gained significantly
showing strong emotional selling, which also leads to buying. I
am working hard to finish the program updates that will be able
to distinguish panic trading from normal trading and be better
able to allocate the proper levels of market exposure. The large
jump in the VIX makes the market moves larger and we trimmed our
exposure by 10% to compensate.
|
Comments
made on August 4, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
24%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
took a small long position for Monday but the Japanese Nikkei
225 and the Korean Kospi 200 fell about 10% Sunday night.
Bitcoin followed suite loosing 14%. The S&P500 was
down about 2% as of this writing. We are a major purchaser of
Japan goods and they are now concerned that the US rate cut may
come too late to prevent a dip in buying.
|
Comments
made on August 1, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
size of the sell-off on Thursday was unexpected. There was a
feeble attempt at a rally late in the session but it did not get
very far. The situation for Friday is interesting but not good.
The probabilities are strong to the down side but the potential
amplitudes are stronger to the upside. With the market in a
strong down trend that tends to be a problem as there is
potential for a short covering rally. We moved into the money
market. My current focus is on uncovering when potential
for these dangerous conditions exists.
|
Comments
made on July 31, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.3%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.4%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Very
nice rebound off the second bottom signal. We continue to hold
our long positions. Probabilities are strong and the aftermarket
is now supportive (as of this posting.). The FED is talking a
September rate cut.
|
Comments
made on July 30, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position. A second "bottom"
signal was triggered today and our signal remains long. I expect
some kind of rebound here. The aftermarket is also looking for
one and the NDX is up about 1%. We should see some short
covering at this level which could give a couple of days
bounce.
|
Comments
made on July 29, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
signal is long for Tuesday. The NDX managed to hold
positive for the day even as the overall Nasdaq Composite turned
negative. I was able to boost my program's speed by about a
factor of 4 and there is more to go. I also have found a path to
better separate the more reliable signals from the good, but
less reliable signals. This will help me to better allocate our
exposure levels.
|
Comments
made on July 28, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market rebounded on Friday but did not quite match Thursday's
decline. Probabilities are somewhat negative but we received a
bottom signal on Thursday afternoon and the market is still
oversold making shorting dangerous from this level, the best
option is the money market.
|
Comments
made on July 25, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
44.5.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
55.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
44.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
61.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
55.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market is in a much better position to launch a recovery attempt
from this level. The NDX hit another new recent low and
triggered a bottom signal. The market launched an attempt to go
higher but gave most of it up late in the day. We are
holding our long position. Our signal is showing a two to one
chance of going higher.
|
Comments
made on July 24, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
45.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
56%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
56%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
35%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
reduced our long position by 10%. The drop, though already
close to a bottom has not triggered our bottom indicator and
there was very little buying on Wednesday leaving the market
lower without any attempt at a recovery. Big tech and AI
stocks took large hits. TSLA dropped over 12%. Commodities fell
across the board with almost 9 going down for each gainer.
Creptocurrency also got slammed. Even Trump media got a wack
with a 7% drop.
|
Comments
made on July 23, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We are holding our long position.
Earnings have started to hit. In this topsy-turvy world If the
markets go down on bad earnings the pundits will say the
earnings drove them down. If the markets go up on bad earnings
they will say the poor earnings will encourage the FED to cut
rates. Only problem is good or bad earnings can still bring an
unexpected response some of the time.
Tesla
fell on an earnings miss sending the aftermarket lower, Google's
earnings were better than expected and the stock also went down.
Strange.
|
Comments
made on July 22, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
66%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
34%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
expect the market strength to carry over into Tuesday. We
increased our exposure. The aftermarket has slipped a little but
is mostly holding on to Monday's gains. Trump's Vance pick is
too far right to get the bulk of the middle of the road voters
and with Harris replacing Biden the fight will be much closer
and those votes are probably required for a win by both
sides.
|
Comments
made on July 21, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
continue to hold our reduced exposure "long" position.
With Biden leaving the race there is one less item of
uncertainty and that should help the "up"
position.
|
Comments
made on July 19, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
25.8%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
34.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
20.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| After
early gains and a retreat there was a strong second attempt to
go positive for the NDX but it failed. There was some buying in
the AI sector and there should be another attempt to go higher
on Friday. This market will not retreat too much as the much
anticipated rate cut is still on the table. Our signal remained
positive but is not strong and we cut back our long position by
half. We moved our conservative program into the money
market.
|
Comments
made on July 17, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Once
the big name tech stocks (NVDA etc) started falling they just
kept going. I have solved a good portion of the problem of
being limited to a trade cut off at 5 min prior to the close but
there is more to do as seen by Wednesday's long position that
did change to a short at the close. My next challenge is
streamlining my program to gain a few minutes near the close.
Changes very near the close do not happen very often and changes
that lead to large problems like we just experienced happen less
often than that, but they do occasionally occur. If I can
manage to avoid even one large bad position it will be well
worth the effort especially now that the rest of the program is
working well and doing an excellent job.
|
Comments
made on July 16, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
continue to hold long. Saw some rotation out of the high
flying AI stocks, but by the close the NDX nudged itself above
zero. Biden is proposing changes to the supreme court to plug up
the ethics violations and perhaps put limits on presidential
immunity.
|
Comments
made on July 15, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Tuesday. The volatility
remains low but is slowly building which should be helpful to us
as it makes the markets even easier to read and makes returns
higher.
The high profile civil rights
attorney Al Sharpton was stabbed in 1991 in New York. Similar to
Mr.Trump both used inflammatory language and got a lot of press
coverage. Mr Sharpton toned down his rhetoric after the close
call on his life, perhaps Mr Trump will also. Trump had
said "There are good people on both sides", This shows
that there are also crazies on both sides.
|
Comments
made on July 14, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Monday. The attempted
assassination of Trump by what appears to be a lone 20 year old,
should not cause very much disruption in the markets on Monday
(in my opinion). It does not appear that any of the key
categories, ie foreign, alien, member of a radical organization,
minority, skilled professional assassin, etc. have been tagged.
But it will bring more headaches to the NRA, especially since it
appears the weapon was an assault rifle, and it will cause more
problems for the secret service who did not see the shooter in
time and then ended his life before they were able to
interrogate him.
|
Comments
made on July 11, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
26.25%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved some capital into the inverse funds at about half our
current normal rate. The overall direction of the market is
higher and the eventual rate cut should boost an already healthy
economy even higher. So we do not want to go too far against the
prevailing winds. Still our program is looking for some more
limited down side.
|
Comments
made on July 10, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Even
more
conflicting data. Strong gain on Wednesday for the markets.
Looks like we may be in a blow off phase as the market is only
going one way.
|
Comments
made on July 9, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| More
conflicting data, very small market price changes and a six
straight day market climb in the NDX and S&P lead me to
believe the safest trade for Wednesday is the money market.
|
Comments
made on July 8, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
short |
26.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
35.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
35%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
17.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| The
market is waiting for the FED to say when they will cut rates.
It is overall a one way up market but we are taking a small
short position for Tuesday, following our program. .
|
Comments
made on July 5, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.4%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to
the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which
temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a
stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is
quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain
does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can
pass between incidents.
|
Comments
made on July 4, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
52.7%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.2%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.2%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to
the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which
temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a
stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is
quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain
does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can
pass between incidents.
|
Comments
made on July 2, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for the shortened trading day on
Wednesday. Our signals are
aligned to the upside. Possible problems are the new all time
high in the NDX and the 20,000 level which could create a pause
in the markets, especially since the market did gain 1% on
Tuesday. .
|
Comments
made on July 1, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close. Market strength came
in near the close, but the market may need to take a pause in
this shortened week as our signals are moderately leaning to the
down side
|
Comments
made on June 30, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Monday. Our signals are
aligned to the upside. The supreme court has saved Trump while
the democrats ponder their next and maybe most significant
move.
|
Comments
made on June 27, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We
moved into the money market at the close giving us another
positive week. Influences were mixed, probabilities were
negative and the end of day trading was not encouraging.
The presidential debates Thursday evening seemed to have
influenced the aftermarket, which turned higher.
|
Comments
made on June 26, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
36.7%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
36.7%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
49.1%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
29.4%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signals became mixed at the close. The market behavior during
the last hour was not stable leading me to reduce our exposure
in each program by 30%. It probably was not enough as the
aftermarket immediately turned weak as soon as the market
closed.
|
Comments
made on June 25, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved back to the long side for Wednesday. Our signals are
aligned but I am not looking for a large up move as Tuesdays
gain may have taken some of the energy out of
it.
|
Comments
made on June 24, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market fell over 1% on Monday. We continue to have a mixed
signal and will hold for another day.
|
Comments
made on June 23, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Mixed
signal for Monday. We will hold for a day.
|
Comments
made on June 20, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
31.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
42%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
42%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
25%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Volatility
remains weak but it is increasing. We have a short signal for
Friday and I have reversed our position and reduced our exposure
for Friday. The market got a little ahead of itself early
on Thursday and may have a little more correction to
go.
|
Comments
made on June 18, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Ever
so slight up-tick on Tuesday and we hold again for Thursday. For
the NDX 10 of the last 12 days were higher, as the NDX is in a
very strong rally.
|
Comments
made on June 17, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
53%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
71%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our long position into Tuesday. Signal remains
strong.
|
Comments
made on June 14, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
moved long again.
|
Comments
made on June 13, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Expectations
of a rate cut while the overall economy remains relatively
healthy is keeping the market pumped. We have another
money market day for Friday.
|
Comments
made on June 12, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Both
the release of the CPI numbers and the Fed decision comments
came on the same day and the markets put in a decent day. Looks
like more tomorrow as we moved to our normal long position and
the aftermarket moved higher.
|
Comments
made on June 11, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Misaligned
influences require that we remain in the money market another
day. Probabilities appear very flat.
|
Comments
made on June 10, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Negative
influences have moved back into the market for Tuesday, but we
are under such low volatility conditions that moving into the
money market is a safer choice. I expect more upside later
in the week.
|
Comments
made on June 7, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
have taken our normal "long" position for Monday. Very
nice week for us as we were correct every day, leveraged on the
long days and only partially short on the very small down
days. The jobs report was stronger than expected while
combined with downward revised previous month numbers. These
numbers are not as important as the inflation numbers so I do
not expect them to sink the markets. The FED is still expected
to cut rates later in the year.
|
Comments
made on June 6, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
short |
10.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
8.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| There
was a negligible pull back on Thursday and we held our very
small inverse position into Friday.
|
Comments
made on June 5, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
short |
10.5%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
8.4%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| We
sold our "long" position at the close and moved into a
very small "short" position. Yesterday I gave
many reasons for the uptrend and against inflation expectations.
For Thursday we have a conflict between the up-to-the minute
influences which are negative and the longer term influences
which are positive. I expect some more early upside that might
start to fall off later in the day.
|
Comments
made on June 4, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signal of Wednesday remains strong and we continue to hold out
Long position. Fundamentally we are seeing commodity prices
falling across the board. Crude oil is about where it was
16 years ago. Silver is below where it peaked over 40 years ago
and US wheat is where it peaked about 27 years ago. Aluminum is
where it peaked about 13 years ago. Copper remains strong
but sits below the highs of 4 years ago while palladium is less
than 35% of where it reached 4 years ago. Considering inflation
every commodity is in a downtrend and that is a good thing with
regards to inflation. The US dollar is sitting in the upper
range that it has seen in the past 36 years. This also helps
keep inflation down. Our economic readings remain positive and
combined with continued low volatility keeps us positive
regarding the ongoing health of the market. The low
volatility has kept the market from running away with itself or
collapsing.
|
Comments
made on June 3, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are holding our long position into Tuesday. The markets
today started off higher, gave it all up and regained most of it
to close higher. We have a stronger signal for Tuesday.
|
Comments
made on June 2, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Glad
to not see riots over the weekend. Perhaps fewer people
are willing to go to prison after the first group in 2020. There
are enough real problems to contend with, no sense trying to
create new ones. The stock market, though hit with random
up and down days, remains in a low volatility condition which
favors the up side. We have taken a normal long position for
Monday.
|
Comments
made on May 30, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| I was
thinking that the recent market drop was a lightening of
holdings prior to the Trump verdict but it being NYC there
wasn't any attempt at craziness like we saw in DC 3 years ago.
The markets could still be on alert for violence as the 34 times
convicted Trump is not confined nor muted and he tends to rev up
his followers. We moved into the money market for Friday. Our
signal is mixed.
|
Comments
made on May 29, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69.5%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets turned lower on Wednesday and the selling increased near
the close. The aftermarket was lower after the close so we will
be fighting an up-hill battle on Thursday.
|
Comments
made on May 28, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
have moved back to our normal long position for Wednesday. Both
the probability of going higher and the size of possible return
to size of loss lean to the long side.
|
Comments
made on May 27, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
37.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
50%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
30%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Back
to the long side for Tuesday. This signal shows a strong
probability of going higher but it also shows a larger amount
down than gain to the up-side, so we took a reduced-exposure,
long position. I
have worked with Microsoft AI CO:Pilot to flush out reasoning for a decline
in the quality of life in the United States but find that
CO:Pilot is not capable up understanding what numbers mean. If
there is an error in the data it uses it can't understand that 5
is less than 12 and will defend the incorrect numbers because it
has them in its data base. Too bad. Microsoft should be able to
spot inconsistencies in its own statements. But it does say its
useless things with a solid grasp of language skills. Form over
content. The Chat GPT group seems to have a better handle on it
and I will continue my project with them.
|
Comments
made on May 23, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Earnings
from Nvidia beat estimates after the close on Wednesday and sent
the stock up over 9% today. The NDX followed but closed lower on
interest rate concerns. Our probabilities are negative, but
looking at it with a more narrow focus shows a positive
component for Friday so we are holding our money market
position.
|
Comments
made on May 22, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
FED did exactly as most expected and the market had a mini fit
and recovered almost back to the prior close. Our signal
moved neutral for Thursday. Normally the market likes the
day after a FED announcement but we will wait as probabilities
are leaning to the down side.
|
Comments
made on May 21, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
are continuing to hold our long position into Wednesday. The
main negative I see is the shrinking volatility. The lower the
volatility the more easily the market can be pushed around by
random news as it does not have a strong direction of its own.
Currently the volatility (as we measure it ) is only 40% of the
thirty year median and volatilities this low have occurred less
than 4% of the time over the past 30 years.
|
Comments
made on May 20, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
45%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
60%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
36%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Back
to the long side for Tuesday. I am finalizing our exposure
levels and today's signal level is strong, but not
exceptional.
|
Comments
made on May 19, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Interest
rates and low volatility are having positive influences on
the market while price changes are having a negative
influence. This is giving us a slightly negative force
countered by positive FED expectations for interest rate cuts.
FED expectations are not something that can give reliable
numerical inputs. We remain in the money market.
|
Comments
made on May 16, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Once
again our probabilities are leaning lower but not strong enough
to take a position. We moved into the Money market for Friday.
|
Comments
made on May 15, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.9.%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.9.%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70.2%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70.6%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| I
am expecting an extension of the rally for another day. This
stealth rally is now out in the open.
Mime stocks GME and
AMC are running amok being manipulated by chorus masters
followed by thousands of minions as the SEC trys to regain
control. One report says an "Elite" hedge fund bought
one million GME shares prior to the 400% run up.
Biden, following Trumps lead, has implemented tariffs
on EVs, solar cells, steel and aluminum products, semiconductors
and other goods from China. The world's experience with tariffs has shown
that they are bad for the population and the economy, by raising
prices and creating a monopoly where one did not exist for the
benefit of a few corporations.
|
Comments
made on May 14, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets have been crawling higher. I suspect that it was related
to the PPI data which tends to feed the CPI data. Although the
PPI data was not very good they did revise the prior months
downward and that could now be hitting this current month's
CPI. In any event it triggered a "long" signal for us and we
moved back to our recent level of exposure. We could see a
challenge to the recent intra day high in the NDX of 18464.7
which is about 3/4% higher than Tuesday's close.
|
Comments
made on May 13, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
short |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our small inverse position. CPI information will be
released on Wednesday and the markets are holding in
anticipation.
|
Comments
made on May 12, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Holding
our small inverse position.. Volatility is shrinking and that
will help the long side, but the level is still within a normal
trading range.
|
Comments
made on May 9, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
Long |
17.3%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Out |
0%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
23.1%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
14%
|
Rydex
inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
negative signal is a little more negative but the FED hangs over
head keeping the market from moving very much lower. I have
taken a very small inverse position, about 1/3 of normal.
|
Comments
made on May 8, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market pause continues with the S&P500 going unchanged and
the NDX off less than -.04%. Our signal remains neutral, the
market appears fully balanced for the immediate future. *[Our
website failed to update the past few days due to some changes
at the host server but it is fully operational now.]
|
Comments
made on May 7, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Finally
we have a market pause. Our signal turned fully neutral and we
are now ready for the next signal.
|
Comments
made on May 6, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| The
market is in a sharp rally phase and could easily test the
recent tops. It is being pushed higher by Powell's
statement that he would not raise rates higher. That statement
has over-ridden our signals the past two days and we took cover
in the money market, staying there another day.
|
Comments
made on May 5, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| We are
holding the money market for Monday. I expect we will be back to
normal trading by then. 90 day T-Bills rates have been steady
since February holding between 5.22% and 5.25%, while the 10
year Notes have a wider range between 4.09% and 4.7%. The NDX is
a little above the midpoint of its' range during the same time
frame.
|
Comments
made on May 2, 2024 Current
position for Friday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Our
expected up-move on Thursday appears to have had a little help
from reported comments by the FED's Powell that rates would not
be raised any higher. Because of that and some other
positives I did not think it wise to pursue our signal's
downward leaning. As of this writing the Aftermarket level of
the NDX is very close to the high of Wednesday.
|
Comments
made on May 1, 2024 Current
position for Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
markets fell over -2.6% during the two days we spent in the
money market and our signal moved back to the plus side for
Thursday. The aftermarket was positive as of this
writing.
|
Comments
made on April 30, 2024 Current
position for Wednesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Fed
announcement on Wednesday. Players are expecting protracted
higher interest rates and positioned themselves for bad news.
The NDX closed on the low of the day from my readings and that
usually indicates an overly pessimistic market with a rebound
the following day. What ever the FED does they do it with the
intention to help the economy. And that is the tax paying
economy. That is not the local business economy nor the general
population which is only a tool of production and has an
inflationary component. The FED helps the largest multinational
corporations. The interests of those corporations and the
population are not necessarily aligned. Interest
rates and the dollar were higher on Tuesday. Our signal is for
the market to go lower but FED days can be disruptive. There is
a very high chance the FED will hold and wait, this has been
known for awhile. I think in this case no news is neutral news
and we are staying out another day.
|
Comments
made on April 29, 2024 Current
position for Tuesday
| Primary |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Hot
Money |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Conservative |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| SuperAlgo |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money market |
| Moderate
gain for the day and we moved fully into the money market. The
signal is leaning lower but it is a weak signal and more subject
to being buffeted by random news. I don't expect much in the way
of direction at the next Fed meeting on Tuesday and
Wednesday.
|
Comments
made on April 28, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
52.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
70%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
42%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
reversed our position and increased our exposure for
Monday.
|
Comments
made on April 25, 2024
Current
position for
Friday
| Primary |
short |
28%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
short |
37.8%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
out |
100%
|
Rydex
Money Market |
| Conservative |
short |
31.5%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
short |
37.8%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
short |
23.2%
|
Rydex
Inverse NDX100 2x fund |
| It
was our first "short" signal in awhile and I was
concerned about Tech earnings reports running us off the road.
So I trimmed way back on our exposure, and it was a good thing
to do as we ran straight into Alphabet's and Microsoft's strong
earnings reports after the close on Thursday. The NDX was
pushed up well over 1% in the aftermarket. With
Donald Trump busy with his trials it allowed for the emergence
of the globalist Republicans passing the Ukraine arms bill
against the wishes of the anti-globalist Republicans. The mice
play when the cat's away.
|
Comments
made on April 24, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
had a strong long signal at the close and held our position.
After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward
on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped
more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked
before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a
better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if
it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I
could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the
aftermarket. The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and
Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even
when they have access to the information they just seem to be
unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer
something else, related but not what was
asked.
|
Comments
made on April 23, 2024 Current
position for
Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure.
TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard
decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars
and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket.
The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's
bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should
spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion).
Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but
the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will
always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive,
non-electric (gasoline?) charging unit could be safely
tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.
|
Comments
made on April 22, 2024 Current
position for
Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
32.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signal remains long but there are some negative elements that
are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect
that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a
bottoming signal.
|
Comments
made on April 21, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles
were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information
gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for
awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The
S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of
April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from
where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading
day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then
rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six
days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly
positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day
of the bottom. I did trim back our exposure about 10%
going into the weekend.
|
Comments
made on April 18, 2024 Current
position for
Friday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Looks
like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details
at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket.
Other than that the markets are close to a
rebound.
|
Comments
made on April 17, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Another
ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden
told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase
tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%. I hope it was
only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very
inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a
very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of
them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs
on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and
housing costs.
|
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Don't confuse brains with
a bull market.
-----Humphrey Neil
|
