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Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position)

Comments made on July 23, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

45.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

66%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

45.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

66%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

66%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

34%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position.  Earnings have started to hit. In this topsy-turvy world If the markets go down on bad earnings the pundits will say the earnings drove them down. If the markets go up on bad earnings they will say the poor earnings will encourage the FED to cut rates. Only problem is good or bad earnings can still bring an unexpected response some of the time. 

Tesla fell on an earnings miss sending the aftermarket lower, Google's earnings were better than expected and the stock also went down. Strange. 

 

Comments made on July 22, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

45.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

66%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

45.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

66%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

66%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

34%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
I expect the market strength to carry over into Tuesday.  We increased our exposure. The aftermarket has slipped a little but is mostly holding on to Monday's gains. Trump's Vance pick is too far right to get the bulk of the middle of the road voters and with Harris replacing Biden the fight will be much closer and those votes are probably required for a win by both sides. 

 

Comments made on July 21, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

25.8%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

34.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

25.8%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo Long

34.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

20.7%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We continue to hold our reduced exposure "long" position. With Biden leaving the race there is one less item of uncertainty and that should help the "up" position.  

 

Comments made on July 19, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

25.8%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

34.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

25.8%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo Long

34.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

20.7%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
After early gains and a retreat there was a strong second attempt to go positive for the NDX but it failed. There was some buying in the AI sector and there should be another attempt to go higher on Friday. This market will not retreat too much as the much anticipated rate cut is still on the table. Our signal remained positive but is not strong and we cut back our long position by half. We moved our conservative program into the money market.   

 

Comments made on July 17, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Once the big name tech stocks (NVDA etc) started falling they just kept going. I have  solved a good portion of the problem of being limited to a trade cut off at 5 min prior to the close but there is more to do as seen by Wednesday's long position that did change to a short at the close. My next challenge is streamlining my program to gain a few minutes near the close. Changes very near the close do not happen very often and changes that lead to large problems like we just experienced happen less often than that, but they do occasionally occur.  If I can manage to avoid even one large bad position it will be well worth the effort especially now that the rest of the program is working well and doing an excellent job.   

 

Comments made on July 16, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We continue to hold long.  Saw some rotation out of the high flying AI stocks, but by the close the NDX nudged itself above zero. Biden is proposing changes to the supreme court to plug up the ethics violations and perhaps put limits on presidential immunity.

Comments made on July 15, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Tuesday. The volatility remains low but is slowly building which should be helpful to us as it makes the markets even easier to read and makes returns higher. 

The high profile civil rights attorney Al Sharpton was stabbed in 1991 in New York. Similar to Mr.Trump both used inflammatory language and got a lot of press coverage. Mr Sharpton toned down his rhetoric after the close call on his life, perhaps Mr Trump will also. Trump had said "There are good people on both sides", This shows that there are also crazies on both sides. 

 

 

Comments made on July 14, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Monday.  The attempted assassination of Trump by what appears to be a lone 20 year old, should not cause very much disruption in the markets on Monday (in my opinion).  It does not appear that any of the key categories, ie foreign, alien, member of a radical organization, minority, skilled professional assassin, etc. have been tagged. But it will bring more headaches to the NRA, especially since it appears the weapon was an assault rifle, and it will cause more problems for the secret service who did not see the shooter in time and then ended his life before they were able to interrogate him. 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on July 11, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary short

26.25%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

35%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

17.5%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

35%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

17.5%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
We moved some capital into the inverse funds at about half our current normal rate. The overall direction of the market is higher and the eventual rate cut should boost an already healthy economy even higher. So we do not want to go too far against the prevailing winds. Still our program is looking for some more limited down side.   

 

 

 Comments made on July 10, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 Even more conflicting data. Strong gain on Wednesday for the markets. Looks like we may be in a blow off phase as the market is only going one way.  

 

Comments made on July 9, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 More conflicting data, very small market price changes and a six straight day market climb in the NDX and S&P lead me to believe the safest trade for Wednesday is the money market.  

 

Comments made on July 8, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary short

26.5%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

35.4%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

28%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

35%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

17.5%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
The market is waiting for the FED to say when they will cut rates. It is overall a one way up market but we are taking a small short position for Tuesday, following our program. .  

 

 

Comments made on July 5, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

53%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70.7%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

53%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.7%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70.7%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.4%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Friday.  With regards to the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can pass between incidents.  

 

 

Comments made on July 4, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

52.7%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70.3%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.7%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.2%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70.3%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.2%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Friday.  With regards to the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can pass between incidents.  

 

 

 

Comments made on July 2, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for the shortened trading day on Wednesday. Our signals are aligned to the upside. Possible problems are the new all time high in the NDX and the 20,000 level which could create a pause in the markets, especially since the market did gain 1% on Tuesday. . 

 

 

 

Comments made on July 1, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 We moved into the money market at the close. Market strength came in near the close, but the market may need to take a pause in this shortened week as our signals are moderately leaning to the down side 

Comments made on June 30, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Monday. Our signals are aligned to the upside. The supreme court has saved Trump while the democrats ponder their next and maybe most significant move. 

 

 

Comments made on June 27, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 We moved into the money market at the close giving us another positive week. Influences were mixed,  probabilities were negative and the end of day trading was not encouraging.  The presidential debates Thursday evening seemed to have influenced the aftermarket, which turned higher.    

 

 

Comments made on June 26, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

36.7%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

49.1%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

36.7%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

49.1%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

49.1%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

29.4%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The signals became mixed at the close. The market behavior during the last hour was not stable leading me to reduce our exposure in each program by 30%. It probably was not enough as the aftermarket immediately turned weak as soon as the market closed.  

 

 

 

Comments made on June 25, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Wednesday. Our signals are aligned but I am not looking for a large up move as Tuesdays gain may have taken some of the energy out of it.    

 

 

Comments made on June 24, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 The market fell over 1% on Monday. We continue to have a mixed signal and will hold for another  day. 

 

Comments made on June 23, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 Mixed signal for Monday. We will hold for a day. 

 

Comments made on June 20, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary short

31.5%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

42%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

28%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

42%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

25%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Volatility remains weak but it is increasing. We have a short signal for Friday and I have reversed our position and reduced our exposure for Friday.  The market got a little ahead of itself early on Thursday and may have a little more correction to go.  

 

Comments made on June 18, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

53%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

71%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

53%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.5%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

71%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.6%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Ever so slight up-tick on Tuesday and we hold again for Thursday. For the NDX 10 of the last 12 days were higher, as the NDX is in a very strong rally.

 

 

Comments made on June 17, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

53%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

71%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

53%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.5%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

71%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.6%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Holding our long position into Tuesday.  Signal remains strong.   

 

 

 

Comments made on June 14, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We moved long again.   

 

 

 

Comments made on June 13, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 Expectations of a rate cut while the overall economy remains relatively healthy is keeping the market pumped. We have another  money market day for Friday.

 

Comments made on June 12, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Both the release of the CPI numbers and the Fed decision comments came on the same day and the markets put in a decent day. Looks like more tomorrow as we moved to our normal long position and the aftermarket moved higher.    

 

 

 

 

Comments made on June 11, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
 Misaligned influences require that we remain in the money market another day.  Probabilities appear very flat.   

 

 

Comments made on June 10, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
   Negative influences have moved back into the market for Tuesday, but we are under such low volatility conditions that moving into the money market is a safer choice.  I expect more upside later in the week. 

 

 

Comments made on June 7, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We have taken our normal "long" position for Monday. Very nice week for us as we were correct every day, leveraged on the long days and only partially short on the very small down days.  The jobs report was stronger than expected while combined with downward revised previous month numbers. These numbers are not as important as the inflation numbers so I do not expect them to sink the markets. The FED is still expected to  cut rates later in the year. 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on June 6, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary short

10.5%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

14%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

14%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

8.4%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
There was a negligible pull back on Thursday and we held our very small inverse position into Friday.   

 

Comments made on June 5, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary short

10.5%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

14%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

14%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

8.4%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
We sold our "long" position at the close and moved into a very small "short" position.  Yesterday I gave many reasons for the uptrend and against inflation expectations. For Thursday we have a conflict between the up-to-the minute influences which are negative and the longer term influences which are positive. I expect some more early upside that might start to fall off later in the day. 

 

Comments made on June 4, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The signal of Wednesday remains strong and we continue to hold out Long position. Fundamentally we are seeing commodity prices falling across the board.  Crude oil is about where it was 16 years ago. Silver is below where it peaked over 40 years ago and US wheat is where it peaked about 27 years ago. Aluminum is where it peaked about 13 years ago.  Copper remains strong but sits below the highs of 4 years ago while palladium is less than 35% of where it reached 4 years ago. Considering inflation every commodity is in a downtrend and that is a good thing with regards to inflation. The US dollar is sitting in the upper range that it has seen in the past 36 years. This also helps keep inflation down. Our economic readings remain positive and combined with continued low volatility keeps us positive regarding the ongoing health of the market.  The low volatility has kept the market from running away with itself or collapsing. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on June 3, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Tuesday.  The markets today started off higher, gave it all up and regained most of it to close higher. We have a stronger signal for Tuesday. 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on June 2, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Glad to not see riots over the weekend.  Perhaps fewer people are willing to go to prison after the first group in 2020. There are enough real problems to contend with, no sense trying to create new ones.  The stock market, though hit with random up and down days, remains in a low volatility condition which favors the up side. We have taken a normal long position for Monday. 

 

Comments made on May 30, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
I was thinking that the recent market drop was a lightening of holdings prior to the Trump verdict but it being NYC there wasn't any attempt at craziness like we saw in DC 3 years ago. The markets could still be on alert for violence as the 34 times convicted Trump is not confined nor muted and he tends to rev up his followers. We moved into the money market for Friday. Our signal is mixed.   

 

 

Comments made on May 29, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

69.5%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

41.5%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The markets turned lower on Wednesday and the selling increased near the close. The aftermarket was lower after the close so we will be fighting an up-hill battle on Thursday.

 

Comments made on May 28, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
I have moved back to our normal long position for Wednesday. Both the probability of going higher and the size of possible return to size of loss lean to the long side.

Comments made on May 27, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

37.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

50%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

37.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

50%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

50%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

30%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Back to the long side for Tuesday. This signal shows a strong probability of going higher but it also shows a larger amount down than gain to the up-side, so we took a reduced-exposure, long position.  I have worked with Microsoft AI CO:Pilot to flush out reasoning for a decline in the quality of life in the United States but find that CO:Pilot is not capable up understanding what numbers mean. If there is an error in the data it uses it can't understand that 5 is less than 12 and will defend the incorrect numbers because it has them in its data base. Too bad. Microsoft should be able to spot inconsistencies in its own statements. But it does say its useless things with a solid grasp of language skills. Form over content. The Chat GPT group seems to have a better handle on it and I will continue my project with them.    

 

 

Comments made on May 23, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Earnings from Nvidia beat estimates after the close on Wednesday and sent the stock up over 9% today. The NDX followed but closed lower on interest rate concerns. Our probabilities are negative, but looking at it with a more narrow focus shows a positive component for Friday so we are holding our money market position.  

 

 

Comments made on May 22, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
The FED did exactly as most expected and the market had a mini fit and recovered almost back to the prior close.  Our signal moved neutral for Thursday.  Normally the market likes the day after a FED announcement but we will wait as probabilities are leaning to the down side. 

 

Comments made on May 21, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

45%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

60%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

45%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

60%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

60%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

36%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We are continuing to hold our long position into Wednesday. The main negative I see is the shrinking volatility. The lower the volatility the more easily the market can be pushed around by random news as it does not have a strong direction of its own. Currently the volatility (as we measure it ) is only 40% of the thirty year median and volatilities this low have occurred less than 4% of the time over the past 30 years.  

 

Comments made on May 20, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

45%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

60%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

45%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

60%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

60%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

36%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Back to the long side for Tuesday. I am finalizing our exposure levels and today's signal level is strong, but not exceptional. 

 

 

Comments made on May 19, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Interest rates and low volatility are  having positive influences on the market while price changes are having a negative influence.  This is giving us a slightly negative force countered by positive FED expectations for interest rate cuts. FED expectations are not something that can give reliable numerical inputs. We remain in the money market. 

 

 

Comments made on May 16, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Once again our probabilities are leaning lower but not strong enough to take a position. We moved into the Money market for Friday.

 

 

 

Comments made on May 15, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.9.%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70.6%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.9.%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.2%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70.6%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.3%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
I am expecting an extension of the rally for another day. This stealth rally is now out in the open.

 Mime stocks GME and AMC are running amok being manipulated by chorus masters followed by thousands of minions as the SEC trys to regain control. One report says an "Elite" hedge fund bought one million GME shares prior to the 400% run up. 

 Biden, following Trumps lead, has implemented tariffs on EVs, solar cells, steel and aluminum products, semiconductors and other goods from China. The world's experience with tariffs has shown that they are bad for the population and the economy, by raising prices and creating a monopoly where one did not exist for the benefit of a few corporations. 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on May 14, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The markets have been crawling higher. I suspect that it was related to the PPI data which tends to feed the CPI data. Although the PPI data was not very good they did revise the prior months downward and that could now be hitting this current month's CPI.  In any event it triggered a "long" signal for us and we moved back to our recent level of exposure.  We could see a challenge to the recent intra day high in the NDX of 18464.7 which is about 3/4% higher than Tuesday's close.

 

 

Comments made on May 13, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary short

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position.  CPI information will be released on Wednesday and the markets are holding in anticipation. 

Comments made on May 12, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative Long

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position.. Volatility is shrinking and that will help the long side, but the level is still within a normal trading range. 

Comments made on May 9, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative Long

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Our negative signal is a little more negative but the FED hangs over head keeping the market from moving very much lower. I have taken a very small inverse position, about 1/3 of normal. 

Comments made on May 8, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
The  market pause continues with the S&P500 going unchanged and the NDX off less than -.04%. Our signal remains neutral, the market appears fully balanced for the immediate future. *[Our website failed to update the past few days due to some changes at the host server but it is fully operational now.]

 

Comments made on May 7, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Finally we have a market pause. Our signal turned fully neutral and we are now ready for the next signal. 

 

Comments made on May 6, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
The market is in a sharp rally phase and could easily test the recent tops. It is being  pushed higher by Powell's statement that he would not raise rates higher. That statement has over-ridden our signals the past two days and we took cover in the money market, staying there another day. 

 

 

Comments made on May 5, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
We are holding the money market for Monday. I expect we will be back to normal trading by then. 90 day T-Bills rates have been steady since February holding between 5.22% and 5.25%, while the 10 year Notes have a wider range between 4.09% and 4.7%. The NDX is a little above the midpoint of its' range during the same time frame.

 

 

Comments made on May 2, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Our expected up-move on Thursday appears to have had a little help from reported comments by the FED's Powell that rates would not be raised any higher. Because of that and some other  positives I did not think it wise to pursue our signal's downward leaning. As of this writing the Aftermarket level of the NDX is very close to the high of Wednesday.  

 

 

Comments made on May 1, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The markets fell over -2.6% during the two days we spent in the money market and our signal moved back to the plus side for Thursday.  The aftermarket was positive as of this writing. 

Comments made on April 30, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Fed announcement on Wednesday. Players are expecting protracted higher interest rates and positioned themselves for bad news. The NDX closed on the low of the day from my readings and that usually indicates an overly pessimistic market with a rebound the following day. What ever the FED does they do it with the intention to help the economy. And that is the tax paying economy. That is not the local business economy nor the general population which is only a tool of production and has an inflationary component. The FED helps the largest multinational corporations. The interests of those corporations and the population are not necessarily aligned. Interest rates and the dollar were higher on Tuesday. Our signal is for the market to go lower but FED days can be disruptive. There is a very high chance the FED will hold and wait, this has been known for awhile. I think in this case no news is neutral news and we are staying out another day.

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 29, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Moderate gain for the day and we moved fully into the money market. The signal is leaning lower but it is a weak signal and more subject to being buffeted by random news. I don't expect much in the way of direction at the next Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

 

Comments made on April 28, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We reversed our position and increased our exposure for Monday. 

Comments made on April 25, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary short

28%

Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

37.8%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

31.5%

Rydex  Inverse  NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

37.8%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

23.2%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund
It was our first "short" signal in awhile and I was concerned about Tech earnings reports running us off the road. So I trimmed way back on our exposure, and it was a good thing to do as we ran straight into Alphabet's and Microsoft's strong earnings reports after the close on Thursday. The NDX was pushed  up well over 1% in the aftermarket.  With Donald Trump busy with his trials it allowed for the emergence of the globalist Republicans passing the Ukraine arms bill against the wishes of the anti-globalist Republicans. The mice play when the cat's away. 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 24, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

46.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

46.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

63%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

46.5%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We had a strong long signal at the close and held our position. After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the aftermarket.  The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even when they have access to the information they just seem to be unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer something else, related but not what was asked.   

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 23, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

46.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

46.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

63%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

46.5%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Our long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure. TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket. The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion). Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive, non-electric (gasoline?)  charging unit could be safely tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.  

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 22, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

41%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

55%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

41%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

55%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

55%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

32.3%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The signal remains long but there are some negative elements that are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a bottoming signal.  

 

Comments made on April 21, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

62%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

62%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

62%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

40%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day of the bottom.  I did trim back our exposure about 10% going into the weekend.  

 

 

Comments made on April 18, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

69%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

41%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Looks like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket. Other than that the markets are close to a rebound.   

 

Comments made on April 17, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

69%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

41%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Another ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%.  I hope it was only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and housing costs. 

 

 

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Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil