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Daily
Market Commentary (and
next day's position)
Comments
made on April 24, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| We
had a strong long signal at the close and held our position.
After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward
on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped
more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked
before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a
better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if
it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I
could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the
aftermarket. The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and
Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even
when they have access to the information they just seem to be
unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer
something else, related but not what was
asked.
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Comments
made on April 23, 2024 Current
position for
Wednesday
| Primary |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
63%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
46.5%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Our
long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure.
TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard
decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars
and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket.
The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's
bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should
spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion).
Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but
the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will
always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive,
non-electric (gasoline?) charging unit could be safely
tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.
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Comments
made on April 22, 2024 Current
position for
Tuesday
| Primary |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
55%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
32.3%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
signal remains long but there are some negative elements that
are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect
that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a
bottoming signal.
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Comments
made on April 21, 2024 Current
position for Monday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
62%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
40%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| The
Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles
were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information
gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for
awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The
S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of
April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from
where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading
day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then
rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six
days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly
positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day
of the bottom. I did trim back our exposure about 10%
going into the weekend.
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Comments
made on April 18, 2024 Current
position for
Friday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Looks
like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details
at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket.
Other than that the markets are close to a
rebound.
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Comments
made on April 17, 2024 Current
position for
Thursday
| Primary |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex NDX100 2x fund |
| Hot
Money |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund. |
| Long/money
market |
Long |
51%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Conservative |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX 100 fund |
| SuperAlgo |
Long |
69%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Anticipatory
Trend |
Long |
41%
|
Rydex
NDX100 2x fund |
| Another
ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden
told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase
tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%. I hope it was
only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very
inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a
very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of
them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs
on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and
housing costs.
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Don't confuse brains with
a bull market.
-----Humphrey Neil
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