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Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position)

 

 

Comments made on May 16, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Once again our probabilities are leaning lower but not strong enough to take a position. We moved into the Money market for Friday.

 

 

 

Comments made on May 15, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.9.%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70.6%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.9.%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70.2%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70.6%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42.3%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
I am expecting an extension of the rally for another day. This stealth rally is now out in the open.

 Mime stocks GME and AMC are running amok being manipulated by chorus masters followed by thousands of minions as the SEC trys to regain control. One report says an "Elite" hedge fund bought one million GME shares prior to the 400% run up. 

 Biden, following Trumps lead, has implemented tariffs on EVs, solar cells, steel and aluminum products, semiconductors and other goods from China. The world's experience with tariffs has shown that they are bad for the population and the economy, by raising prices and creating a monopoly where one did not exist for the benefit of a few corporations. 

 

 

 

 

Comments made on May 14, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The markets have been crawling higher. I suspect that it was related to the PPI data which tends to feed the CPI data. Although the PPI data was not very good they did revise the prior months downward and that could now be hitting this current month's CPI.  In any event it triggered a "long" signal for us and we moved back to our recent level of exposure.  We could see a challenge to the recent intra day high in the NDX of 18464.7 which is about 3/4% higher than Tuesday's close.

 

 

Comments made on May 13, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative Long

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position.  CPI information will be released on Wednesday and the markets are holding in anticipation. 

Comments made on May 12, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative Long

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position.. Volatility is shrinking and that will help the long side, but the level is still within a normal trading range. 

Comments made on May 9, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

17.3%

Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Out

0%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative Long

23.1%

Rydex   inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

23.1%

Rydex  inverse  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

14%

Rydex   inverse NDX100 2x fund
Our negative signal is a little more negative but the FED hangs over head keeping the market from moving very much lower. I have taken a very small inverse position, about 1/3 of normal. 

Comments made on May 8, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
The  market pause continues with the S&P500 going unchanged and the NDX off less than -.04%. Our signal remains neutral, the market appears fully balanced for the immediate future. *[Our website failed to update the past few days due to some changes at the host server but it is fully operational now.]

 

Comments made on May 7, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Finally we have a market pause. Our signal turned fully neutral and we are now ready for the next signal. 

 

Comments made on May 6, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
The market is in a sharp rally phase and could easily test the recent tops. It is being  pushed higher by Powell's statement that he would not raise rates higher. That statement has over-ridden our signals the past two days and we took cover in the money market, staying there another day. 

 

 

Comments made on May 5, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
We are holding the money market for Monday. I expect we will be back to normal trading by then. 90 day T-Bills rates have been steady since February holding between 5.22% and 5.25%, while the 10 year Notes have a wider range between 4.09% and 4.7%. The NDX is a little above the midpoint of its' range during the same time frame.

 

 

Comments made on May 2, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Our expected up-move on Thursday appears to have had a little help from reported comments by the FED's Powell that rates would not be raised any higher. Because of that and some other  positives I did not think it wise to pursue our signal's downward leaning. As of this writing the Aftermarket level of the NDX is very close to the high of Wednesday.  

 

 

Comments made on May 1, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The markets fell over -2.6% during the two days we spent in the money market and our signal moved back to the plus side for Thursday.  The aftermarket was positive as of this writing. 

Comments made on April 30, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Fed announcement on Wednesday. Players are expecting protracted higher interest rates and positioned themselves for bad news. The NDX closed on the low of the day from my readings and that usually indicates an overly pessimistic market with a rebound the following day. What ever the FED does they do it with the intention to help the economy. And that is the tax paying economy. That is not the local business economy nor the general population which is only a tool of production and has an inflationary component. The FED helps the largest multinational corporations. The interests of those corporations and the population are not necessarily aligned. Interest rates and the dollar were higher on Tuesday. Our signal is for the market to go lower but FED days can be disruptive. There is a very high chance the FED will hold and wait, this has been known for awhile. I think in this case no news is neutral news and we are staying out another day.

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 29, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary out

100%

Rydex Money market
Hot Money out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Conservative out

100%

Rydex  Money market
SuperAlgo out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Anticipatory Trend out

100%

Rydex  Money market
Moderate gain for the day and we moved fully into the money market. The signal is leaning lower but it is a weak signal and more subject to being buffeted by random news. I don't expect much in the way of direction at the next Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.  

 

Comments made on April 28, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

52.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

52.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

70%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

70%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

42%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We reversed our position and increased our exposure for Monday. 

Comments made on April 25, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary short

28%

Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money short

37.8%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market out

100%

Rydex  Money Market
Conservative short

31.5%

Rydex  Inverse  NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo short

37.8%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend short

23.2%

Rydex  Inverse NDX100 2x fund
It was our first "short" signal in awhile and I was concerned about Tech earnings reports running us off the road. So I trimmed way back on our exposure, and it was a good thing to do as we ran straight into Alphabet's and Microsoft's strong earnings reports after the close on Thursday. The NDX was pushed  up well over 1% in the aftermarket.  With Donald Trump busy with his trials it allowed for the emergence of the globalist Republicans passing the Ukraine arms bill against the wishes of the anti-globalist Republicans. The mice play when the cat's away. 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 24, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

46.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

46.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

63%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

46.5%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
We had a strong long signal at the close and held our position. After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the aftermarket.  The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even when they have access to the information they just seem to be unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer something else, related but not what was asked.   

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 23, 2024    Current position for Wednesday

Primary Long

46.5%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

46.5%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

63%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

63%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

46.5%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Our long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure. TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket. The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion). Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive, non-electric (gasoline?)  charging unit could be safely tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.  

 

 

 

 

Comments made on April 22, 2024    Current position for Tuesday

Primary Long

41%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

55%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

41%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

55%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

55%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

32.3%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The signal remains long but there are some negative elements that are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a bottoming signal.  

 

Comments made on April 21, 2024    Current position for Monday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

62%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

62%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

62%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

40%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
The Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day of the bottom.  I did trim back our exposure about 10% going into the weekend.  

 

 

Comments made on April 18, 2024    Current position for Friday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

69%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

41%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Looks like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket. Other than that the markets are close to a rebound.   

 

Comments made on April 17, 2024    Current position for Thursday

Primary Long

51%

Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market Long

51%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Conservative Long

69%

Rydex   NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo Long

69%

Rydex  NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend Long

41%

Rydex   NDX100 2x fund
Another ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%.  I hope it was only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and housing costs. 

 

 

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Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil