Daily Market Commentary

Palisades Research Systems

Registered Investment Advisors

Forecast

Daily Market Commentary

Free password for access to long term forecast

Longer term projections and free software

Investing
Philosophy

Method
Artificial Intelligence

Ris

Bio

T-Index

Pension Funds an
Endowments

How to get started. Our Investment Programs

Contact

Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary (and next day's position)

Comments made on November 20, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We remain in the Money Market for Thursday. Nvidia's earnings topped estimates but the guidance did not meet expectations. Earlier this year fundamentals were "long" and expectations for rate cuts were high. That has changed with our fundamentals now "short" and expectations for December small and future cuts looking blurry the market's future direction is more likely lower than higher. I expect to see more rallies once the fundamentals turn around and that date is an unknown. For now I expect the market to drizzle lower.

Comments made on November 19, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Holding our neutral position as we await a stronger signal. Fundamentals continue to put downward pressure on the Market.

Comments made on November 18, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market gained back about one third of its loss of Friday. Our signal is neutral for Tuesday. I will be working primarily with the short side as long as we remain under negative fundamentals.

Comments made on November 17, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	short	37.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	50%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	100%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	50%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
We have taken an unleveraged short position for Monday. We are placing greater emphasis on our fundaments based algorithms and less on our technical algorithms. This model should be better able to avoid the problems that were occurring with market direction surprises due to the growing heavy trading just prior to the close. It will allow us to trade more closely in the direction supported by the fundamentals. We utilize over 30 years of data and have reduced the number of market influences impacting our trading giving us a statistically more reliable model. Our Fundamental algorithm had turned negative at the close of October 22 with the NDX at 20390. The market came down prior to the Trump rally, but the rally pushed it up to 21117 on November 11, by Friday it closed at 20394. In general the market shows longer periods of positive fundamental influence and fewer and choppier periods of negative influence.

Comments made on November 14, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
I have increased the influence of the economic components and they will be more evident as we begin trading by the weeks close. I expect the market to continue lower. The elimination of the up-to-the-minute closing prices to trade appears to be a blessing as it forced me to rely on fewer variables. Fewer variable over a large number of data points (over 30 years) greatly improves reliability.

Comments made on November 13, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Very little market movement over the past few days as the economic picture remains shaky. Our pure interest rate model is positive while our wider based economic fundamental model is negative. It is best when they agree. We remain in the money market.

Comments made on November 12, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We have moved back to neutral our probabilities are leaning to the down side.

Comments made on November 11, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	50%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	50%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Moved back to Long at the close. Don't like coming late to a party but the last two market trading days may be enough of a regroup to continue higher for another day or so.

Comments made on November 10, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
It appears that Warren Buffett has been sell stock much faster than he has been buying in 2024. Reuters reports that he has $325 Billion in cash and sold 600 million of Apple shares in 2024. This was the eighth consecutive quarter where Buffett was a net seller of stocks. He also has not issued any buy backs of his own stock this quarter. The current cash level it more than ten times the level that he set as a minimum. The $325 Billion represents about one third of the value of his company. This is something to consider if you are rushing to buy long. Our fundamental indicator had turned slightly negative for the past two weeks. It is based on fundamentals interest rates, commodity prices and stock index prices and has done well on its own for the past thirty years. The election has apparently influenced the markets in a positive way and, since that is not a numerical measured influence, the duration of that influence will be absorbed into the markets behavior taking the center stage until some thing else comes to replace it. The market does not react solely due to fundamentals. Fundamentals are like the wind providing either a benefit or impediment to market progress, Under the influence of the fundamentals the market will still continue to respond to other forces, but making them either more or less important. We remain in the money market for Monday. Volatility remains low but rising. Higher volatility will trigger stronger signals for us. I prefer to trade but this time Warren is keeping us company.

Comments made on November 7, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The Fed cut rates the expected 0.25 %. That was nothing especially considering that the 10 year notes had already gained 0.6% more than double the drop during the past five weeks. We now have our second main indicator turning negative enough to flatten our expectations in our probabilities.

Comments made on November 6, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Wednesday's market responded to what investors expect Trump will do. US Steel jumped over 8% on expectations of tariffs blocking foreign competition. The Russell index jumped over 5.8% as investors expect big gains for smaller domestic stocks. Tariffs will raise prices on goods coming in to the country and then will be countered by different goods going out of the country. This leads to inflation for both countries involved. We did not trade the past two days but as it turned out we should have. Our signal was a partial long. Still it seemed more of a dangerous bet than an informed investment trade. Today we have an actual Money market signal for Thursday and we remain on the sidelines.

Comments made on November 5, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Holding our neutral position another day just to stay out of the way of weirdness. It appears that Trump has won the election so there shouldn't be rioting or overthrowing of the government, but looting should not be ruled out. Down the road we will have tariffs to contend with. Expect less government regulation in many areas and most likely that will extend to financial institutions as well as food and drugs. We all know where that will lead. If the FED cuts rates as expected we could also expect the markets to go higher in the short term, But tariffs will send the price of goods higher and that should cause a problem in 2025 leading to more inflation.

Comments made on November 4, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close. The election is driving the market and we will stay out for two days.

Comments made on November 3, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	16.2%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	22%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	16.2%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	22%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	22%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	13%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Going into election week with a wound up population anything can happen with regards to both the election and protests. Outside of the elections the fundamentals remain negative. For Monday our overall signal is positive and there is enough other support to see an additional weak bump but the negatives and unknowns call for reduced exposure.

Comments made on October 31, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	21.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	29%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	21.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	29%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	29%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	17%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The fundamentals remain negative, the market drop was countered by increases in interest rates and commodity prices which partially diminished any benefits. Our trading signal remains positive and our position is small.

Comments made on October 30, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	30%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	18%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The last few days have pushed the fundamentals fully negative. Our trading signal is positive, (even under this consideration) but we have greatly reduced our overall exposure to account for these conditions.

Comments made on Oct. 29, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market got good news from Google and tech/AI pushed higher. higher interest and prices are putting a lid on the general market at this time.

Comments made on October 28, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	short	22.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	100%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	18%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
With the fundamentals now negative we have moved short with a neutral to short signal.

Comments made on October 24, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	30%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	18%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
With the fundamentals going negative we find ourselves swimming against the current in taking a long position. Which is why we have limited our exposure more than normal for the low volatility conditions that exist.

Comments made on October 24, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	30%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	18%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
For Friday we have our Fundamental indicator negative while our signal is a partial long. We reduced our partial long exposure by another 25% and moved long.

Comments made on Oct. 23, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Wednesday had a greater than expected drop as the fundamental conditions regarding inflation and interest rates are getting more serious. After the close TSLA had good earnings and that should help the market on Thursday. Fundamental influences have become stronger and they are now a negative influence on the markets. The election will have its own market forces mostly negative with the tariff concerns. Cautious moves ahead.

Comments made on October 22, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We reversed to the long side for Wednesday. The NDX market appears to be in a stealth rally where daily changes are small but positive. This type of rally could continue for a while because the volatility is low enough that there is little fear. One thing that could unhinge the market is the fear that Trump will win and large tariffs will be imposed in multiple areas effectively slowing down a number of economies. An article today spells it out in the warning issued by the International Monetary Fund. They said tariffs trigger international tit for tat trade wars that impoverish the economies involved in the dispute along with the wider global economy. Tariffs are easy for a political party to slip in as the general population does not see their taxes increased, only later they find that the cost of what they are buying has gone a lot higher and by then the political party implementing the tariffs may be out of power and the other party left with the blame.

Comments made on Oct. 21, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close with our neutral signal. The daily changes continue to be mostly small extending this low volatility condition.

Comments made on October 18, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We reversed to the long side for Monday. Politics dominates the news and volatility remains low. Both gold and the stock market have moved higher over the past two years. It is as if both inflation concerns and the hope of low interest are driving the markets, but since high interest rates are inflationary on their own as they work through the system pushing mortgage payments and car loans higher and those rates remain relatively high it may be the stock market that is pushing closer to its limits. The 10 year rates seem to already be at a place where going any higher will have a negative impact on stock prices.

Comments made on October 17, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	30.0%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	40%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	40%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	20%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
This is our first down signal in a number of weeks. It is partial short and the main trend is higher.

Comments made on October 16, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The NDX closed hardly changed as the negativity from ASML with Tuesday's drop carried into Wednesday. We are holding long but the sentiment could continue to influence trades in Tech.

Comments made on October 15, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Bad chip expectations sent the market lower on Tuesday. We moved long at the close looking for a rebound.

Comments made on Oct. 14, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close with our neutral signal. The daily changes are mostly small under this low volatility condition that has existed for over a month.

Comments made on October 11, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Janan Ganesh a key writer for the Financial Times suggests that both Netanyahu and Putin are prolonging their respective wars, waiting to see if Donald Trump will win the election as he is more likely to allow them free reign without substantial consequences. It is certain that with the uncertainty of the election outcome nothing will change over the next month. Also remember, tariffs are very inflationary. They add to the the cost of goods purchased just like a sales tax. They can be enacted on food or goods and when applied to lumber it adds to the price of housing. Trump installed tariffs his first term and pledges to do it again. The 99 cent stores and dollar discount stores provide many necessities to the poor and sell mostly imported products. Tariffs would greatly endanger the survival of these stores and even if they survived the rise in prices would have damaging impact on the poor. There are many reasons to support a candidate and tariffs are one of them. The biggest problem, especially in large cities is the cost of housing. Home prices in our largest cities have increased from 10 times to over 25 times in the past 50 years, rents have gone up about as much. In small communities housing prices have increase about four to five times during that time frame. Some of this is the result of gentrification which brings with it both good and bad effects. Neither party has effectively slowed the spiraling cost of real estate and more often both have encouraged it. This is to be expected under the structure of our political system and real estate developers have a big say at the local levels in politics. Often politicians are supported by these developers on the candidates way up. Here is where term limits could help.

Comments made on Oct. 10, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close with our neutral signal. Probabilities are positive but there is potential for a larger drop on the down side than rise on the upside supporting our neutral position.

Comments made on October 9, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 1X fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Our signal remains long and we decided to remain in the S&P rather than switch to the NDX which continues to be more volatile than the S&P.

Comments made on October 8, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 1X fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex SPX500 2x fund
The markets are flipping from up to down to up again. For Wednesday we have a small long position but switched to the S&P500 fund rather than the NDX which appears to have overshot on the upside.

Comments made on Oct. 7, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Perhaps the market players decided that the follow up rate cuts would be less than the recent half percentage point cut. That most likely sent the interest rates higher and under the current low volatility conditions it is easy for any immediate news to have more market impact.

Comments made on October 4, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Good economic news sent the markets higher on Friday while fears that Israel might target Iran's oil fields in response to Iran's missile attacks sent oil prices higher. Meanwhile Biden called for Israel to find alternate targets. We took a small "Long" position for Monday.

Comments made on Oct. 3, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Dockworker strike has been suspended until mid January. This did not have an immediate impact on the NDX in the aftermarket. It will take away some inflation fears.

Comments made on October 2, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The VP debate made Vance appear more normal, and by default made Trump appear even further to the fringe. But that did not really matter. Oil prices are stabilizing and the threat of war remains as does the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts.

Comments made on Oct. 1, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Iran's missile attack on Israel raised oil prices and sent the markets lower. The markets seem to be returning to where they started about a month ago. Volatility is on the low side.

Comments made on Sept 30, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The NDX was lower for most of the day but ran higher around twelve minutes prior to the close, gaining .26% on the day. Tuesday is the first day of the month and that's generally positive but has not done much in the past two years.

Comments made on Sept 29, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We are back in California after spending time In NYC. I met with my nephew who is a trader on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and got a refresher view of the markets from his point of view. The big read is that most of the trading takes place within the last few minutes of the market.day and that percentage is increasing. 50 years ago when I was a broker, the morning trades were more significant than they are now. But still the opening trades and closing trades make up a significant amount of the day's trading. I am pleased with the past months results reflecting the elimination and dependence on the late afternoon price action.

Trading, but out of office. Sept 11 - Sept 27

Comments September 26, 2024 Position for Friday: Money Market

Comments September 25, 2024 Position for Thursday:Partial Long

Comments September 24, 2024 Position for Wednesday: Money Market

Comments September 23, 2024 Position for Tuesday:Partial Long

Comments September 22, 2024 Position for Monday: Money Market

Comments September 19, 2024 Position for Friday: Money Market

Comments September 18,2024 Position for Thursday: Money Market

Comments September 17,2024 Position for Wednesday: Partial Long

Comments September 16,2024 Position for Tuesday: Partial Long

Comments September 15,2024 Position for Monday: Partial Long

Comments September 12, 2024 Position for Friday:Money market

Comments September 11, 2024 Position for Thursday:Money market

Comments made on September 10, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Inflation report on Wednesday. The FED is going through the motions and the results will be beneficial in the long term.

Comments made on Sept 9, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Monday had a bounce and The after market is slipping. We remain in the money market.

Comments made on Sept 8, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Excessive down day on Friday. Our signal is split and we moved into the Monday market.

Comments made on September 5, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	36.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	36%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	36%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	22%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
In the long scheme of things Friday's employment figures will not matter. As they are nothing compared to the 800,000 over-reported jobs from the past year. Another school shooting, 4 dead, leads us to wonder if either presidential candidate could force an end to the use of automatic weapons and the amount of control the NRA has over America. Polls show about 60% of the population would like stricter controls.

Comments made on September 4, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	36.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	36%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	36%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	22%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
I expect that the extreme momentum has passed but can't tell for sure. Our signal remains "long" and without the need for the up-to-the-minute input the reliability has increased. The gloves are off politically and the news has gotten silly. Tesla launched the world's first "Giga-train" in Germany, electric powered. Janan Ganesh a writer for the Financial Times reflected upon how would another Trump loss impact America society. It appears that there is no one of his character to take his place. Interesting read.

Comments made on September 3, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	36.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	27%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	36%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	36%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	22%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Tuesday seemed to be an overreaction to the ISM manufacturing index PMI numbers which were up slightly from last month and down slightly from last year. Holding a little below the 50% mark shows manufacturing continue to contract. But with rate cuts coming most likely this month the markets move lower was in my mind excessive for the information. Meanwhile I have been successful in totally eliminating the up to the minute influence of the late-in-the-day trading. It took a long time but the program is more stable and I expect substantially better going forward. We just need to get past this recent spat of over correcting behavior.

Comments made on August 27, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	50.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	50%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	50%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved long for Tuesday.

Comments made on August 29, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	37.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	50%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	50%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	30%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
I expect some limited down side action on Friday as we have a down signal with increased exposure the first one in a while. The market remains elevated and may have exceeded recent expectations. Concerns remain regarding the FED getting out from behind the decelerating growth rate of the economy, especially in light of the over reporting of 800,000 jobs over the past 12 months.

Comments made on August 28, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The markets fell Wednesday in anticipation of insufficient guidance from NVIDIA. Results weren't bad but the aftermarket took it down another 7% and as of this writing the NDX was lower by another 1.25%. Our signal was leaning lower but the reaction to NVIDIA was like rolling dice so we just pulled over to the curb. Super Micro Computer was down 19.5% Wednesday and another 6.5% after the close. I just got listed on the NDX last month and has fallen over 30% since then. Some shady people that they removed may have resurfaced, so there are problems there not related to economics.

Comments made on August 27, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	33.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	33%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	33%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	20%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
All eyes are on NiVIDA's earnings report. How much will be too little? Not much else to twist the markets. Revised indictments for Donald Trump to adjust for the Supreme court's road block.

Comments made on August 26, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The probabilities of going higher or lower on Tuesday look about even. Tuesday often goes opposite Mondays direction. But our signal does lean to the down side as their is a risk of a larger down move. The rate cuts support the upside and the soft corporate buying supports the down side. We moved into the money market.

Comments made on August 25, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	33.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	33%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	33%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	19.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We increased our long exposure by about 10%. The new Israel - Hezbollah fighting could be a downer, but over a day has passed and it does not seem to be a major concern. The FED will be cutting rates and that should provide some level of continued market support.

Comments made on August 22, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	18.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Our signal switched at the close to leaning short, so we will move to neutral at the morning fix in the 2x funds. The 800,000 jobs that did not happen represent about 1/2 of one percent of the total employed. About 10% of workers are self employed. Our signal has been calling for reduced exposure so we are not highly exposed.

Comments made on August 21, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Over 800,000 jobs credited to the growth in the economy this year never happened according to the slower but more accurate update on job creation. But that must be good news for the Fed cutting rates since the indices went higher today, At the close we moved into the money market as our signal was leaning a touch to the negative.

Comments made on August 20, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	33.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	33%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	33%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	19.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We maintained our small long direction but increased our exposure by about 10%

Comments made on August 19, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	22.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	30.0%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	18%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Still not a strong signal but the probabilities look strong and we took the low exposure position. DNC tonight should allow the market to continue higher.

Comments made on August 18, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The run up should be ready to stop about here. Our signal is leaning lower and the longer term short signal is now in day two. I am waiting for a stronger signal in either direction to get back in.

Comments made on August 15, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
As Kamala Harris continues to grow in the polls and Kamala starts to shift her policies more to the center It appears that the stock market has taken notice. This is no longer a race between two old men with less than consistent mental acuity. Now with 95% of the voters younger than 80 those voters see more of themselves in the new contender and they also see hope. That could be what is generating such a surge in the markets. Looking in the other direction we see our longer term interest rata signal switch from long to short the first time since March of 2023.

Comments made on August 14, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Recent signals have been very small. There is some concern about war escalation in Russia and the Middle East and perhaps a too slow FED. Hard to tell what the election influence is. The market seems to like it all after the sell-off from mid July to early August.

Comments made on August 13, 2024 Current position for Wedesday

Primary	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	33.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	33.3%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	33.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	20%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Our signal turned mildly long with a low exposure. Probabilities look good. This rally has had some strong days so it may not have the longevity of a stealth rally, where the daily changes are consistently higher but under 1% each.

Comments made on August 12, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
This is our fourth neutral signal with negative leaning. The market continues to show gains. I am waiting for a stronger signal.

Comments made on August 10, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
This is our third neutral signal with negative leaning. Currently there is an armed excursion into Russia by Ukraine and potential for escalating war in the Middle East. This has not greatly increased the price of oil which is odd. The dollar is holding in the 103 area and crypto's Bitcoin is about 58,500. Not much has changed.

Comments made on August 8, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Big rally most likely based on early morning release of employment figures. This time they are saying things are not that bad, with a positive interpretation, and not a fearful one about the Fed not needing to hurry. Whatever way the market goes the media can put a fitting interpretation on the news.

Comments made on August 7, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The NDX had an early gain of over 2% which turned into a loss of over 1% by the close. Our signal is neutral to low grade short so we moved into the money market.

Comments made on August 6, 2024 Current position for Wedesday

Primary	Long	29.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	39%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	29.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	39%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	39%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	23%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The market closed higher but gave back some early gains. We held our long position and increased it about 10%.

Comments made on August 5, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	26.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	35.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	26.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	35.5%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	35.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	21.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The market partially recovered from Monday's heavy early morning selling but remained lower. Sharp Monday market drops generally lead to good Tuesday rebounds. Also the Vix gained significantly showing strong emotional selling, which also leads to buying. I am working hard to finish the program updates that will be able to distinguish panic trading from normal trading and be better able to allocate the proper levels of market exposure. The large jump in the VIX makes the market moves larger and we trimmed our exposure by 10% to compensate.

Comments made on August 4, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	40%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	24%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We took a small long position for Monday but the Japanese Nikkei 225 and the Korean Kospi 200 fell about 10% Sunday night. Bitcoin followed suite loosing 14%. The S&P500 was down about 2% as of this writing. We are a major purchaser of Japan goods and they are now concerned that the US rate cut may come too late to prevent a dip in buying.

Comments made on August 1, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The size of the sell-off on Thursday was unexpected. There was a feeble attempt at a rally late in the session but it did not get very far. The situation for Friday is interesting but not good. The probabilities are strong to the down side but the potential amplitudes are stronger to the upside. With the market in a strong down trend that tends to be a problem as there is potential for a short covering rally. We moved into the money market. My current focus is on uncovering when potential for these dangerous conditions exists.

Comments made on July 31, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.3%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.4%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Very nice rebound off the second bottom signal. We continue to hold our long positions. Probabilities are strong and the aftermarket is now supportive (as of this posting.). The FED is talking a September rate cut.

Comments made on July 30, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position. A second "bottom" signal was triggered today and our signal remains long. I expect some kind of rebound here. The aftermarket is also looking for one and the NDX is up about 1%. We should see some short covering at this level which could give a couple of days bounce.

Comments made on July 29, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Our signal is long for Tuesday. The NDX managed to hold positive for the day even as the overall Nasdaq Composite turned negative. I was able to boost my program's speed by about a factor of 4 and there is more to go. I also have found a path to better separate the more reliable signals from the good, but less reliable signals. This will help me to better allocate our exposure levels.

Comments made on July 28, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market rebounded on Friday but did not quite match Thursday's decline. Probabilities are somewhat negative but we received a bottom signal on Thursday afternoon and the market is still oversold making shorting dangerous from this level, the best option is the money market.

Comments made on July 25, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	44.5.%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	55.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	44.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	61.5%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	55.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	34.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The market is in a much better position to launch a recovery attempt from this level. The NDX hit another new recent low and triggered a bottom signal. The market launched an attempt to go higher but gave most of it up late in the day. We are holding our long position. Our signal is showing a two to one chance of going higher.

Comments made on July 24, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	45.%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	56%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	45%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	62%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	56%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	35%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We reduced our long position by 10%. The drop, though already close to a bottom has not triggered our bottom indicator and there was very little buying on Wednesday leaving the market lower without any attempt at a recovery. Big tech and AI stocks took large hits. TSLA dropped over 12%. Commodities fell across the board with almost 9 going down for each gainer. Creptocurrency also got slammed. Even Trump media got a wack with a 7% drop.

Comments made on July 23, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	45.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	66%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	45.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	66%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	66%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	34%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position. Earnings have started to hit. In this topsy-turvy world If the markets go down on bad earnings the pundits will say the earnings drove them down. If the markets go up on bad earnings they will say the poor earnings will encourage the FED to cut rates. Only problem is good or bad earnings can still bring an unexpected response some of the time. Tesla fell on an earnings miss sending the aftermarket lower, Google's earnings were better than expected and the stock also went down. Strange.

Comments made on July 22, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	45.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	66%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	45.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	66%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	66%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	34%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
I expect the market strength to carry over into Tuesday. We increased our exposure. The aftermarket has slipped a little but is mostly holding on to Monday's gains. Trump's Vance pick is too far right to get the bulk of the middle of the road voters and with Harris replacing Biden the fight will be much closer and those votes are probably required for a win by both sides.

Comments made on July 21, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	25.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	34.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	Long	34.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	20.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We continue to hold our reduced exposure "long" position. With Biden leaving the race there is one less item of uncertainty and that should help the "up" position.

Comments made on July 19, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	25.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	34.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	25.8%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	Long	34.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	20.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
After early gains and a retreat there was a strong second attempt to go positive for the NDX but it failed. There was some buying in the AI sector and there should be another attempt to go higher on Friday. This market will not retreat too much as the much anticipated rate cut is still on the table. Our signal remained positive but is not strong and we cut back our long position by half. We moved our conservative program into the money market.

Comments made on July 17, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Once the big name tech stocks (NVDA etc) started falling they just kept going. I have solved a good portion of the problem of being limited to a trade cut off at 5 min prior to the close but there is more to do as seen by Wednesday's long position that did change to a short at the close. My next challenge is streamlining my program to gain a few minutes near the close. Changes very near the close do not happen very often and changes that lead to large problems like we just experienced happen less often than that, but they do occasionally occur. If I can manage to avoid even one large bad position it will be well worth the effort especially now that the rest of the program is working well and doing an excellent job.

Comments made on July 16, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We continue to hold long. Saw some rotation out of the high flying AI stocks, but by the close the NDX nudged itself above zero. Biden is proposing changes to the supreme court to plug up the ethics violations and perhaps put limits on presidential immunity.

Comments made on July 15, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Tuesday. The volatility remains low but is slowly building which should be helpful to us as it makes the markets even easier to read and makes returns higher. The high profile civil rights attorney Al Sharpton was stabbed in 1991 in New York. Similar to Mr.Trump both used inflammatory language and got a lot of press coverage. Mr Sharpton toned down his rhetoric after the close call on his life, perhaps Mr Trump will also. Trump had said "There are good people on both sides", This shows that there are also crazies on both sides.

Comments made on July 14, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Monday. The attempted assassination of Trump by what appears to be a lone 20 year old, should not cause very much disruption in the markets on Monday (in my opinion). It does not appear that any of the key categories, ie foreign, alien, member of a radical organization, minority, skilled professional assassin, etc. have been tagged. But it will bring more headaches to the NRA, especially since it appears the weapon was an assault rifle, and it will cause more problems for the secret service who did not see the shooter in time and then ended his life before they were able to interrogate him.

Comments made on July 11, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	26.25%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	35%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	17.5%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	35%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	17.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
We moved some capital into the inverse funds at about half our current normal rate. The overall direction of the market is higher and the eventual rate cut should boost an already healthy economy even higher. So we do not want to go too far against the prevailing winds. Still our program is looking for some more limited down side.

Comments made on July 10, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Even more conflicting data. Strong gain on Wednesday for the markets. Looks like we may be in a blow off phase as the market is only going one way.

Comments made on July 9, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
More conflicting data, very small market price changes and a six straight day market climb in the NDX and S&P lead me to believe the safest trade for Wednesday is the money market.

Comments made on July 8, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	short	26.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	35.4%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	28%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	35%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	17.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
The market is waiting for the FED to say when they will cut rates. It is overall a one way up market but we are taking a small short position for Tuesday, following our program. .

Comments made on July 5, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.7%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.4%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can pass between incidents.

Comments made on July 4, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	52.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.2%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.2%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Friday. With regards to the debate, most likely Biden suffered a mild TIA which temporarily impedes the flow of blood to the brain. Unlike a stroke TIAs do not cause permanent damage because blood flow is quickly restored. The instantaneous lack of oxygen to the brain does cause a momentary lack of clarity in thinking. Years can pass between incidents.

Comments made on July 2, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for the shortened trading day on Wednesday. Our signals are aligned to the upside. Possible problems are the new all time high in the NDX and the 20,000 level which could create a pause in the markets, especially since the market did gain 1% on Tuesday. .

Comments made on July 1, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close. Market strength came in near the close, but the market may need to take a pause in this shortened week as our signals are moderately leaning to the down side

Comments made on June 30, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Monday. Our signals are aligned to the upside. The supreme court has saved Trump while the democrats ponder their next and maybe most significant move.

Comments made on June 27, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We moved into the money market at the close giving us another positive week. Influences were mixed, probabilities were negative and the end of day trading was not encouraging. The presidential debates Thursday evening seemed to have influenced the aftermarket, which turned higher.

Comments made on June 26, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	36.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	49.1%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	36.7%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	49.1%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	49.1%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	29.4%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The signals became mixed at the close. The market behavior during the last hour was not stable leading me to reduce our exposure in each program by 30%. It probably was not enough as the aftermarket immediately turned weak as soon as the market closed.

Comments made on June 25, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved back to the long side for Wednesday. Our signals are aligned but I am not looking for a large up move as Tuesdays gain may have taken some of the energy out of it.

Comments made on June 24, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market fell over 1% on Monday. We continue to have a mixed signal and will hold for another day.

Comments made on June 23, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Mixed signal for Monday. We will hold for a day.

Comments made on June 20, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	31.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	42%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	28%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	42%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	25%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Volatility remains weak but it is increasing. We have a short signal for Friday and I have reversed our position and reduced our exposure for Friday. The market got a little ahead of itself early on Thursday and may have a little more correction to go.

Comments made on June 18, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	71%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.5%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	71%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Ever so slight up-tick on Tuesday and we hold again for Thursday. For the NDX 10 of the last 12 days were higher, as the NDX is in a very strong rally.

Comments made on June 17, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	71%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	53%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.5%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	71%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Holding our long position into Tuesday. Signal remains strong.

Comments made on June 14, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We moved long again.

Comments made on June 13, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Expectations of a rate cut while the overall economy remains relatively healthy is keeping the market pumped. We have another money market day for Friday.

Comments made on June 12, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Both the release of the CPI numbers and the Fed decision comments came on the same day and the markets put in a decent day. Looks like more tomorrow as we moved to our normal long position and the aftermarket moved higher.

Comments made on June 11, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Misaligned influences require that we remain in the money market another day. Probabilities appear very flat.

Comments made on June 10, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Negative influences have moved back into the market for Tuesday, but we are under such low volatility conditions that moving into the money market is a safer choice. I expect more upside later in the week.

Comments made on June 7, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We have taken our normal "long" position for Monday. Very nice week for us as we were correct every day, leveraged on the long days and only partially short on the very small down days. The jobs report was stronger than expected while combined with downward revised previous month numbers. These numbers are not as important as the inflation numbers so I do not expect them to sink the markets. The FED is still expected to cut rates later in the year.

Comments made on June 6, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	10.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	8.4%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
There was a negligible pull back on Thursday and we held our very small inverse position into Friday.

Comments made on June 5, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	short	10.5%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	8.4%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
We sold our "long" position at the close and moved into a very small "short" position. Yesterday I gave many reasons for the uptrend and against inflation expectations. For Thursday we have a conflict between the up-to-the minute influences which are negative and the longer term influences which are positive. I expect some more early upside that might start to fall off later in the day.

Comments made on June 4, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The signal of Wednesday remains strong and we continue to hold out Long position. Fundamentally we are seeing commodity prices falling across the board. Crude oil is about where it was 16 years ago. Silver is below where it peaked over 40 years ago and US wheat is where it peaked about 27 years ago. Aluminum is where it peaked about 13 years ago. Copper remains strong but sits below the highs of 4 years ago while palladium is less than 35% of where it reached 4 years ago. Considering inflation every commodity is in a downtrend and that is a good thing with regards to inflation. The US dollar is sitting in the upper range that it has seen in the past 36 years. This also helps keep inflation down. Our economic readings remain positive and combined with continued low volatility keeps us positive regarding the ongoing health of the market. The low volatility has kept the market from running away with itself or collapsing.

Comments made on June 3, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are holding our long position into Tuesday. The markets today started off higher, gave it all up and regained most of it to close higher. We have a stronger signal for Tuesday.

Comments made on June 2, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Glad to not see riots over the weekend. Perhaps fewer people are willing to go to prison after the first group in 2020. There are enough real problems to contend with, no sense trying to create new ones. The stock market, though hit with random up and down days, remains in a low volatility condition which favors the up side. We have taken a normal long position for Monday.

Comments made on May 30, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
I was thinking that the recent market drop was a lightening of holdings prior to the Trump verdict but it being NYC there wasn't any attempt at craziness like we saw in DC 3 years ago. The markets could still be on alert for violence as the 34 times convicted Trump is not confined nor muted and he tends to rev up his followers. We moved into the money market for Friday. Our signal is mixed.

Comments made on May 29, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	52.%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	69.5%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	41.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The markets turned lower on Wednesday and the selling increased near the close. The aftermarket was lower after the close so we will be fighting an up-hill battle on Thursday.

Comments made on May 28, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
I have moved back to our normal long position for Wednesday. Both the probability of going higher and the size of possible return to size of loss lean to the long side.

Comments made on May 27, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	50%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	37.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	50%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	50%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	30%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Back to the long side for Tuesday. This signal shows a strong probability of going higher but it also shows a larger amount down than gain to the up-side, so we took a reduced-exposure, long position. I have worked with Microsoft AI CO:Pilot to flush out reasoning for a decline in the quality of life in the United States but find that CO:Pilot is not capable up understanding what numbers mean. If there is an error in the data it uses it can't understand that 5 is less than 12 and will defend the incorrect numbers because it has them in its data base. Too bad. Microsoft should be able to spot inconsistencies in its own statements. But it does say its useless things with a solid grasp of language skills. Form over content. The Chat GPT group seems to have a better handle on it and I will continue my project with them.

Comments made on May 23, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Earnings from Nvidia beat estimates after the close on Wednesday and sent the stock up over 9% today. The NDX followed but closed lower on interest rate concerns. Our probabilities are negative, but looking at it with a more narrow focus shows a positive component for Friday so we are holding our money market position.

Comments made on May 22, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The FED did exactly as most expected and the market had a mini fit and recovered almost back to the prior close. Our signal moved neutral for Thursday. Normally the market likes the day after a FED announcement but we will wait as probabilities are leaning to the down side.

Comments made on May 21, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	45%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	60%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	45%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	60%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	60%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	36%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We are continuing to hold our long position into Wednesday. The main negative I see is the shrinking volatility. The lower the volatility the more easily the market can be pushed around by random news as it does not have a strong direction of its own. Currently the volatility (as we measure it ) is only 40% of the thirty year median and volatilities this low have occurred less than 4% of the time over the past 30 years.

Comments made on May 20, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	45%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	60%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	45%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	60%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	60%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	36%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Back to the long side for Tuesday. I am finalizing our exposure levels and today's signal level is strong, but not exceptional.

Comments made on May 19, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Interest rates and low volatility are having positive influences on the market while price changes are having a negative influence. This is giving us a slightly negative force countered by positive FED expectations for interest rate cuts. FED expectations are not something that can give reliable numerical inputs. We remain in the money market.

Comments made on May 16, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Once again our probabilities are leaning lower but not strong enough to take a position. We moved into the Money market for Friday.

Comments made on May 15, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	52.9.%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.9.%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70.2%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70.6%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
I am expecting an extension of the rally for another day. This stealth rally is now out in the open. Mime stocks GME and AMC are running amok being manipulated by chorus masters followed by thousands of minions as the SEC trys to regain control. One report says an "Elite" hedge fund bought one million GME shares prior to the 400% run up. Biden, following Trumps lead, has implemented tariffs on EVs, solar cells, steel and aluminum products, semiconductors and other goods from China. The world's experience with tariffs has shown that they are bad for the population and the economy, by raising prices and creating a monopoly where one did not exist for the benefit of a few corporations.

Comments made on May 14, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The markets have been crawling higher. I suspect that it was related to the PPI data which tends to feed the CPI data. Although the PPI data was not very good they did revise the prior months downward and that could now be hitting this current month's CPI. In any event it triggered a "long" signal for us and we moved back to our recent level of exposure. We could see a challenge to the recent intra day high in the NDX of 18464.7 which is about 3/4% higher than Tuesday's close.

Comments made on May 13, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	short	17.3%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position. CPI information will be released on Wednesday and the markets are holding in anticipation.

Comments made on May 12, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	17.3%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Holding our small inverse position.. Volatility is shrinking and that will help the long side, but the level is still within a normal trading range.

Comments made on May 9, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	17.3%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Out	0%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	23.1%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	14%	Rydex inverse NDX100 2x fund
Our negative signal is a little more negative but the FED hangs over head keeping the market from moving very much lower. I have taken a very small inverse position, about 1/3 of normal.

Comments made on May 8, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market pause continues with the S&P500 going unchanged and the NDX off less than -.04%. Our signal remains neutral, the market appears fully balanced for the immediate future. *[Our website failed to update the past few days due to some changes at the host server but it is fully operational now.]

Comments made on May 7, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Finally we have a market pause. Our signal turned fully neutral and we are now ready for the next signal.

Comments made on May 6, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
The market is in a sharp rally phase and could easily test the recent tops. It is being pushed higher by Powell's statement that he would not raise rates higher. That statement has over-ridden our signals the past two days and we took cover in the money market, staying there another day.

Comments made on May 5, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
We are holding the money market for Monday. I expect we will be back to normal trading by then. 90 day T-Bills rates have been steady since February holding between 5.22% and 5.25%, while the 10 year Notes have a wider range between 4.09% and 4.7%. The NDX is a little above the midpoint of its' range during the same time frame.

Comments made on May 2, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Our expected up-move on Thursday appears to have had a little help from reported comments by the FED's Powell that rates would not be raised any higher. Because of that and some other positives I did not think it wise to pursue our signal's downward leaning. As of this writing the Aftermarket level of the NDX is very close to the high of Wednesday.

Comments made on May 1, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The markets fell over -2.6% during the two days we spent in the money market and our signal moved back to the plus side for Thursday. The aftermarket was positive as of this writing.

Comments made on April 30, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Fed announcement on Wednesday. Players are expecting protracted higher interest rates and positioned themselves for bad news. The NDX closed on the low of the day from my readings and that usually indicates an overly pessimistic market with a rebound the following day. What ever the FED does they do it with the intention to help the economy. And that is the tax paying economy. That is not the local business economy nor the general population which is only a tool of production and has an inflationary component. The FED helps the largest multinational corporations. The interests of those corporations and the population are not necessarily aligned. Interest rates and the dollar were higher on Tuesday. Our signal is for the market to go lower but FED days can be disruptive. There is a very high chance the FED will hold and wait, this has been known for awhile. I think in this case no news is neutral news and we are staying out another day.

Comments made on April 29, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Hot Money	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Conservative	out	100%	Rydex Money market
SuperAlgo	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Anticipatory Trend	out	100%	Rydex Money market
Moderate gain for the day and we moved fully into the money market. The signal is leaning lower but it is a weak signal and more subject to being buffeted by random news. I don't expect much in the way of direction at the next Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Comments made on April 28, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	52.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	70%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	70%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	42%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We reversed our position and increased our exposure for Monday.

Comments made on April 25, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	short	28%	Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	short	37.8%	Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	out	100%	Rydex Money Market
Conservative	short	31.5%	Rydex Inverse NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	short	37.8%	Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	short	23.2%	Rydex Inverse NDX100 2x fund
It was our first "short" signal in awhile and I was concerned about Tech earnings reports running us off the road. So I trimmed way back on our exposure, and it was a good thing to do as we ran straight into Alphabet's and Microsoft's strong earnings reports after the close on Thursday. The NDX was pushed up well over 1% in the aftermarket. With Donald Trump busy with his trials it allowed for the emergence of the globalist Republicans passing the Ukraine arms bill against the wishes of the anti-globalist Republicans. The mice play when the cat's away.

Comments made on April 24, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	63%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	63%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	63%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
We had a strong long signal at the close and held our position. After the close Meta announced increased expenses going forward on AI and reduced expectations for earnings. The stock dropped more than 15% as investors have seen Meta run off half cocked before (The Metaverse). This time Mr Zuckerberg should see a better return on the AI that is going into target marketing if it isn't drained by the AI for the Metaverse, and of course I could be wrong both ways. Meta's drop sent tech lower in the aftermarket. The more I ask questions of Chat GPT and Copilot the more I realize how limited they really are. Even when they have access to the information they just seem to be unable to answer the actual questions instead they try to answer something else, related but not what was asked.

Comments made on April 23, 2024 Current position for Wednesday

Primary	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	63%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	63%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	63%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	46.5%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Our long signal is stronger today and we increased our exposure. TSLA had earnings worse than estimated, but after a long hard decline and some words about moving faster on affordable cars and autonomous cars the stock was up strong in the aftermarket. The worse than estimated earnings were expected and Tesla's bounce brought many big name tech stocks with it. This should spread across the NDX companies on Wednesday (in my opinion). Musk is convinced that all electric will win out over hybrid but the fear of getting stranded and the struggle to find power will always be in the way unless a small, light, inexpensive, non-electric (gasoline?) charging unit could be safely tucked away for seamless integration in emergencies.

Comments made on April 22, 2024 Current position for Tuesday

Primary	Long	41%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	55%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	41%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	55%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	55%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	32.3%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The signal remains long but there are some negative elements that are filtering in, so I have reduced our exposure again. I expect that there will be another dip lower soon, as we have not had a bottoming signal.

Comments made on April 21, 2024 Current position for Monday

Primary	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	62%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	62%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	62%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	40%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
The Israel retaliatory strike was mild. I read only three missiles were fired. Looks like it was a token reply and information gathering attack. Hopefully that will help quiet things down for awhile. I took a look at the markets during and after 911, The S&P 500 had a PE ratio of 36.9 on September 1 2001. As of April 1 of this year it was 28.33. The NDX fell over 8% from where it closed on Sept 10 til where it closed the next trading day on Sept 17. It continued to fall for 4 more days then rebounded over 5.5% after losing more than 17%. The past six days the market fell about 7%, with one of those days slightly positive. The expectation is that the drop is still within a day of the bottom. I did trim back our exposure about 10% going into the weekend.

Comments made on April 18, 2024 Current position for Friday

Primary	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	69%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	41%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Looks like Israel has managed to blow us something in Iran. No details at this time but it sent the markets lower in the aftermarket. Other than that the markets are close to a rebound.

Comments made on April 17, 2024 Current position for Thursday

Primary	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Hot Money	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund.
Long/money market	Long	51%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Conservative	Long	69%	Rydex NDX 100 fund
SuperAlgo	Long	69%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Anticipatory Trend	Long	41%	Rydex NDX100 2x fund
Another ugly day. We are holding "long" into Thursday. Biden told an audience in Pennsylvania that he wanted to increase tariffs on Chinese steel from 7.5% to 25%. I hope it was only election talk and he isn't serious. Tariffs are very inflationary. Trump put in a series of tariffs that acted as a very large tax on the population. Biden did not relieve most of them and this latest statement will just make it worse. Tariffs on steel will increase most machinery, appliance, automobile and housing costs.

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2020

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2020

For earlier comments made in 2019

For earlier comments made in 2 nd half of 2018

For earlier comments made in 1 st half of 2018

For earlier comments made in 2017

For earlier comments made in 2016

For earlier comments made in 2015

For earlier comments made in 2014

For earlier comments made in 2013

For earlier comments made in 2012

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2011

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2011

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2010

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2010

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2009

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2009

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2008

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2008

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil