Daily Market Commentary

Comments: December 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  2008 was very good to us and Wednesday's gain pushed our return for the year over +76.5%. Rydex closed before I could get the final figures. Our signal weakened further and closed flat, allowing us to move into the money market and all our accounts to take a day off without market pressure. The Vix ended the year at 40 and had not been that low since the beginning of October, while 20 is a more normal number. A big thank you to all our clients and readers, wishing all a prosperous, happy and healthy New Year. If you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 30, 2008

Current position Long: 17% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 83% Money Market for Wednesday.  Our signal weakened, but remained long, so we adjusted our exposure in accordance with our signal strength and volatility. Israel is still a factor, but unless another country gets in the mix that issue will have less market importance. The year will probably go out quietly. I expect that 2009 will not provide much comfort to investors but the volatility should wind down as the year moves along. So if you would like a guide helping you through these difficult times. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 29, 2008

Current position Long: 45% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 55% Money Market for Tuesday.  If the Israel and India conflicts can keep from getting too far out of hand we should have a good market day on Tuesday. Monday's drop provided our clients with another new all time high in their accounts. Small but in the right direction. Our signal is very positive and strong but the international conflicts could send the markets off path. We adjust our exposure for both signal strength and volatility. We shift our position each day in the direction that we determine to have the highest probability of being correct. When the decision is not clear cut we remain in the money market and when the overall volatility is high we reduce our exposure to adjust for it. This method has provided us with gains this year from both our long investments as well as our short investments and has allowed our clients to sleep at night.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package with additional details on our program.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 26, 2008

Current position: Short: 15% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Monday.  We closed the week with enough of a gain to give our clients another new high. For Monday our signal is negative, but as you can see from the probabilities the data is limited, causing us to reduce our exposure. The small market moves over the past few days tends to mask investor emotion and is generally a positive for the markets. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 25, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x,70% Money Market for Friday.  Our long signal weakened and we reduced our exposure. Almost all the news over Christmas was bad so that isn't going to help our forecast. Japan's market did turn up and that was about all the positives I could find. Hope every one had a happy holiday, Friday will be a full trading day.  Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 23, 2008

Current position Long: 45% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 55% Money Market for Wednesday.  The Madoff scam has turned deadly as the founder of a fund that lost 1.1 billion to them has committed suicide. The Dow has gone down 5 days in a row and our signal turned up. It is a solid "long" signal and coming a day before Christmas should bring good cheer.  Don't forget the markets close early on Wednesday. Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Monday's negative showing was good for us, moving our Rydex accounts up to another new high for the year. The last few minutes around the market close changed our signal to a minor short, but too late to take that position.  And as we have said many times, not as reliable as a signal that is steady during the last hour. In a bad economy most of the news is bad, and that held true today as investors chewed over lower earnings and expectations from Toyota and Walgreen.  Please pick up your free password we posted our long term views this past weekend.

Comments: December 20, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Monday.  If you don't have a PHD from Harvard, don't feel too bad. The brains at Harvard could not prevent the university from suffering a 22% loss in their endowment between June 30th and October 31 and are preparing for an overall loss of 30% for the year. The market indexes were mixed on Friday and we are holding our short position into Monday. I posted our new long term forecast today. It is not a happy one. Do some holiday shopping, maybe it will help. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 18, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Friday.  The markets had a small down day on Thursday and our signal got more negative. Some positive verbiage from the administration regarding the auto bail-out may have moved the aftermarket higher. But we can't get too excited as the list of bankruptcies grows. Today Polaroid filed. Yesterday it was Woolworth's announcing it was closing its 815 stores leaving 27,000 employees unemployed after 99 years in business. The original started in the US in 1878.  The five and dime is dead, it is a sad day for Woolworths, its employees and those of us who loved their stores. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 17, 2008

Current position: Short: 40% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Thursday.  The gloom seems to have returned. The markets did not follow through but did not self destruct either. Our signal turned into an average weight short and we moved 40% in that direction. Chrysler has extended its normal holiday shut down by two weeks, giving the lack of consumer credit as the problem. The market volatility has gradually diminished and we have slowly increased our market exposure. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 16, 2008

Current position Long: 14% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 86% Money Market for Wednesday.  The Fed cut rates as expected and pledged to do all it can to revive the economy. That was what the market wanted to hear and it may carry the market's upward momentum over into Wednesday. The last minute of trading pushed our signal from a "weak buy" to a "strong buy", but anytime a signal shifts that late in a session we are less confident in its conviction.  We are only minimally invested at 14%. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  We have a very mixed reading for Tuesday.  Our signal is slightly negative, but a number of important factors favor the positive side so we moved fully into the money market. Tuesday's Fed meeting should not have any impact on the markets unless they announce a new set of super powers. A reminder: When you use us as your advisor, we do not hold your money. You open your account with Rydex funds and you have immediate and continuous access to you funds, no windows, no lock ups.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 12, 2008

Current position Long: 35% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% Money Market for Monday. We followed our signal to the upside for Monday. And I expect that Friday's small rally will carry over. Going forward however could prove more difficult as the intermediate term trend appears to be calling for a another negative thrust. The most upsetting news of the week was the $50 billion Madoff fraud. Transparence should be foremost in selecting someone to manage your money. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Once again all accounts reached new all-time highs.  We will close out the week up 70.8% ytd, with an average exposure level for this year of only 53%. Keeping our exposure level low under these volatile conditions lets our clients sleep at night. Our signal flat-lined and we are back in the money market.  News contained the normal concerns about the auto-bail-out package.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 10, 2008

Current position: Short: 35% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Thursday.  Our signal firmed to the short side during the last hour of trading.  The investment community is focused on the auto bail-out and the significance of zero percent T-bill interest rates. It is almost like everyone knows the bail-out will happen and are waiting for the final word to once again "sell on the news".  I believe funds and institutions are as much into cash (T-bills) as their charters will allow and that buying, combined with foreign money has pushed the rates to zero. That is a lot of potential for when things turn around.  But it may be a long wait. We, on the other hand make a daily decision and rely on time-based-diversification to keep us out of long term down drafts. Our three year track record has out-performed the markets and made money on our long trades as well as out-performing the markets and making money on our short trades.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  All accounts reached new highs again today and our compound rate of gain is running 32.2% going back to Jan 06, a few weeks short of three years (fees not included). Over that time period we were 32.4% less exposed to the markets than the Nasdaq 100. This is achieved through active daily account management. Today $30 billion dollars of one month treasury bills sold for 0% interest as the flight to quality causes many to move funds into short term treasuries. This is an interesting phenomenon with implications for the dollar and deflation, and will be addressed in our next long term forecast which is now well overdue.  Our signal stayed flat all day and we moved back into the money market. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 8, 2008

Current position: Short: 32% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 68% money market for Tuesday.  The normal Friday carryover was supported by the automobile bail-out rally, allowing the markets to tack on a strong gain.  Tuesday should reverse Monday's progress. Our signal became negative and we moved to the down side. These bail-out programs are adding significantly to long term debt which is already overtaxed by Medicare and Social Security. Of course, without saving the economy first, there would be no Social plans to worry about. But the long term health of the stock market will need a special pill. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Three times this week all our accounts reached new all time highs.  We were able to compound gains of over 10% from two days of up markets and two days of down markets, with one day spent in the money market.  What is most important here is that we were only 50% as exposed to the market forces as the NDX.  Being able to trade in either direction and being able to allocate only a small portion of our funds to the market during times of high volatility keeps our risk well below that of the market in general. For Monday our signal is very mixed, there is a good chance of an early rally as carryover from Friday, but I do not expect it to last.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 4, 2008

Current position Long: 10% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% Money Market for Friday.  Thursday's market drop left us with another new all time high for our clients. This is exactly how time-based diversification works. By not being in the markets very long in any one direction we can avoid  a severe declining market while picking off gains on both the up days (like Wednesday) or the down days (like Monday and Thursday) and avoiding those days when we do not have a very clear signal by spending time in the money market (like Tuesday). For Friday we found our signal toying between a weak "long" and "money market", we decided on a very low level of "long" market exposure. Though the longer term trend is down I expect that we could easily see some upside progress over the next two weeks. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 3, 2008

Current position Short: 32% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 68% money market for Thursday.  Good day for the markets. Great day for our accounts as we made new highs and pushed well through the +60% ytd number. Our signal reversed for Thursday and we moved negative.  I don't believe this dangerous market can support much more to the up-side. Our  T-Index is a very negative and deflationary -452.  Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new-account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 2, 2008

Current position Long: 31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Wednesday.  (I had the wrong date posted yesterday hope I didn't confuse anyone.)  Our program seems to think we have another day of upside. I don't think we have that much more, since the last twenty minutes on Tuesday may have eaten most of the potential. The after-market has drifted a little lower as of this writing.  On the other hand our probabilities, especially for the NDX, look good. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday. Our 36% position in the Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x fund on Monday netted our accounts their second largest one day gain this year and brought all accounts up to "new high" status. The final few minutes of the market plunge pushed our signal up enough for a minor long position, but too late to take it, as we moved fully into the money market. The volatility climbed higher as the markets sold off.  The markets have now given up more than half their recent gains. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 29, 2008

Current position Short: 36% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 64% money market for Monday.  Black Friday has past with early indications that sales were slow. Our signal turned short, and with the volatility dropping some, we increased our exposure, though still well below normal levels. We gained over 5% during November bringing our year-to-date total to over 50%. Give us a call or send us an e-mail and we will send you our new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 26, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Nice run for the markets, but I remain a skeptic. The Vix, though fallen from its extreme levels remains high, and the daily market changes are historically large. Obama seems to be doing and saying the right things to ease fears.  Our signal remained flat, Friday is a shortened day with Rydex trading only once.  Wishing all a happy Thanksgiving. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal went flat again later in the day and we moved fully into the money market. From a charting point of view, the five day chart looks like a head and shoulders pattern that could bring the NDX back down to 1080, but the SPX does not support that view, (and we do not use charts for our positions) . The Fed announced the purchase of $500 billion in mortgage backed securities and that gave real-estate related securities a boost.  We have a number of conflicting components at this point and we will wait for a better signal for our next position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 24, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday. Beautiful up day for the bulls with a Citigroup rescue, Obama team plans and Thanksgiving.  Almost too much to expect a carryover and our signal moved solidly to the down side.  2009 will be a lean year for the government with almost no capital-gains taxes coming in, and two on going wars.  State and local government are facing the same problems compounded by decreasing real estate revenue and unemployment payouts. All of this curtails normal government spending, decreasing the revenue of small and large businesses that depend on it, lowering the earnings estimates and real earnings for almost all companies.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  This past week we called the direction correct 3 out of 5 days, but still sustained a loss.  Managing risk is a very important part of investing, and the primary focus of what we do.  If you wish to keep your gains you must avoid being in the markets when there is not a clear advantage to being exposed. Investing one day at a time allows you that advantage. We do not have a strong enough signal for Monday to take a position so we will wait. The economy is becoming more deflationary with our T-Index now at a -456. The return on the 90 day t-bill is basically zero. The volatility continues to climb signaling a continuation of the crisis.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 20, 2008

Current position Long: 21% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Thursday.  This morning as the Vix approached 80 I decided to trim our long position down to about 23% from 29% at the morning fix, feeling that we were a little over exposed for current market conditions, that Idea was correct as the market closed lower.  For Friday our signal pulled back a bit but remained strong.  We are comfortable with our reduced exposure under these more volatile conditions.  If things weren't scary enough take a look at (X) US Steel Corp which has lost about 90% of its value in the past 5 months while reporting record earnings. So just what kind of fear or reality has motivated that kind of selling?  So glad to be doing this one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 19, 2008

Current position Long: 29% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 71% Money Market for Thursday.  The begging of the Big 3 auto industry CEO's was not pretty.  It started with them arriving in private jets.  These folks showed no confidence that they would not be insolvent in a number of months even if they received the loans. It wasn't pretty to watch, and was one of the reasons for Wednesday's tumble. Our signal gained strength and we held on to our "long" position. The VIX remains very high and our T-Index is making new lows now at -430.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 18, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% Money Market for Wednesday. The markets moved up and down and closed slightly higher.  Our signal held steady and we held our position. Probabilities are looking to the up-side. We received almost two hundred additional hits on our site Monday when someone mentioned us on a blog or forum. If any of my readers know where that came from please send me an email. Looks like they did a good job. Our T-index is still very negative and deflationary.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 17, 2008

Current position Long: 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% Money Market for Tuesday. We reversed our position from Monday and reduced our exposure back down to 30%. The VIX not only remains at a very high level, but is creeping higher showing that the level of fear in this market is running unabated.  Our signal for Tuesday shows good up probabilities with only mild potential downside risk. We still remain cautious. The rate on the 90 day bills closed at 0.09% forcing our T-Index to another new low.  I regret that it looks like the long term forecast will be delayed a bit.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 14, 2008

Current position Short: 35% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Monday.  This was a good week for us, closing with a year-to-date gain of +54%, surpassing our previous record high in 2006 of +51.7%. The market continues to be dangerous and we continue to remain only partially invested, which is still enough to generate a generous return. Monday looks like a downer, but the final drop in the last few minutes on Friday made our short signal a little less negative. Probabilities however still look very negative. Our T-Index hit another new low at -405. I am very concerned about where the economy is going and will make a big effort to put together another long term forecast over the next few days.  I was going to wait until the volatility dropped but I need to update my comments for you.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 13, 2008

Current position Short: 34% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 66% money market for Friday.  Investors were very concerned that Paulson switched directions on the bail out indicating that he really didn't believe in his first proposal. This did not send out the message of confidence that investors want and need to start buying.  So I don't know what kick started the market Thursday, other than my indicators were saying "go long" and we did.  Our program anticipates the market rather than follows it. So even if we were just lucky, once again our accounts are at new highs.  For Friday we got a short signal and we reversed direction.  I doubt that this rally will have any real follow through. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 12, 2008

Current position Long: 31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 69% Money Market for Thursday.  If Best Buy's poor forecast on Tuesday knocked 5% off the indexes what will Intel's bad news do? The aftermarket has moved lower. It looks like November will be an uphill battle. Our T-Index is now a negative -399 and that is the lowest I have seen over the past 15 years. We are holding on to the 30% level of exposure for today since the probabilities did not present us with alarming numbers for "average amount down", if these numbers start to grow or if our program encounters a number of large negative days, we will be ready to make an adjustment.  This is active management and that is what we do.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 11, 2008

Current position Long: 33% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 67% Money Market for Wednesday.  Seems like the only ones partying these days are executives at AIG.  But they couldn't even get that right, as reporters uncovered their $343,000 worth of fun. Among the non party-goers are the companies who couldn't get the hand outs and are filing for bankruptcy. Interest rates on jumbo loans are over 8% while 10 year treasuries are below 4%. Financial institutions can lend at lower rates but won't. There will be no housing recovery at these rates.  Perhaps they are expecting a surge in inflation not too far down the line. But our signal turned up and we moved to a 33% long position on the strength of the signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 10, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday.  Tuesdays often reverse Monday's trend, but our signal is "short" and the market did have a good pop on Friday. So we are looking to the down side. Our probabilities are also very negative. There should be lighter volume with some investors observing Veteran's day. The markets will still be open and we will be here looking after our accounts. Our T-Index is very negative and deflationary, and the VIX remains abnormally high. The market continues to be a very dangerous place.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 7, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Friday's gain moved all our accounts to new highs for the year. Though we are happy about that, our joy is tempered by the knowledge that millions of people are suffering along with the economy.  President elect Obama reminded us today that October marked the tenth month that the economy shed jobs. I am sure he will do what he can, but not all advice is good advice.  In California Governor Schwarzenegger proposed a hike in the sale tax to 10%.  Did he not consider the jobs and sales that would be lost to California through internet purchases because a tax of that size would be a huge deterrent to in-state purchases and more than compensate for out of state shipping costs? I have a number of unpopular solutions to the economic problems, but I think they make good sense.  This morning Dylan Ratigan on CNBC said taxes make excellent incentives. I agree and one thing that can be done through taxation is to restore US jobs.  This can be done with an additional tax on foreign earnings combined with a tax credit against social security taxes.  For large companies doing some of their business overseas the total taxes paid might be a wash, but the incentive is to hire more US workers and create less overseas work. The credits would go to both workers and businesses. And the implementation would be over perhaps a three to five year period to allow for businesses to adjust to the new conditions. With credits also going to workers the minimum wage would not need to be raised, and the credits would act as a stimulus to those who still have jobs.  It would also be a deterrent to the practice of "under the table" payments to workers to avoid taxes.  Seems like a win-win situation to me and I welcome your comments.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 6, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. Thursday's down move helped us out and we now have a gain for November. Our signal is positive but not very strong, yet the path looks higher and we took a small long position. Corporate operating earnings estimates are not reflecting the strong dollar and those earnings should continue to fall. S&P will most likely continue to cut them on a weekly basis as they have for most of this year. But we see the big money in the daily market changes and continue to adjust our direction to suit a variety of components not just earnings.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 5, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Thursday.  Our signal turned short and probabilities look very negative for Thursday.  The election is over and it is back to the realities of the economy.  The new president should strengthen our foreign relations and the possibility of ending the war and stopping the 10 billion dollar a month drain on the economy should at least slow the drop in the stock markets. Even with that uncertainty out of the way the unreasonably high level of the Vix is keeping me from from having any faith in a longer term forecast. For now it is still one day at a time.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 4, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's large market gain caught me by surprise as did the big jump in oil prices and fall of the dollar. Not my day. Our signal moved to the sidelines and so did we. The markets may make a false start Wednesday morning in either direction so be careful. We will wait in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 3, 2008

Current position Short: 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday. Mondays market closed flat for the second day.   Our signal became more negative and we doubled our market exposure.  The markets have quieted down prior to the elections, but investors are most likely assuming the Democrats will be the winners. The Vix has fallen some over the past few days and we have been slowly building up our positions.  We adjust our amount of market exposure to both the strength of our signal and the volatility of the markets in order to show a more steady return on our investment.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 31, 2008

Current position Short: 15% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Monday.  The NDX closed flat and our signal shifted between short and the money market in the final half hour of trading.  Eventually it settled on the money market.  We trimmed our short position back to 15%. The market behaved well this week and could continue to climb, but I would like to see the Vix at a more normal level and that level is much lower.  The election should not have any effect on the markets unless McCain wins, as that would be a surprise and markets don't like surprises. I am not sure what the overall effect would be, but that would help some stocks and hurt others and probably send the Vix higher in the confusion.  Make sure you vote it is important.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 30, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday.  Our signal became more negative, and our probabilities more reflective of a downward moving market.  We increased our exposure to 20%, still remaining quite small in light of the very high volatility.  The administration has chosen to extend the war into Syria, perhaps as a parting gift to Obama.  When this gets thought through it should help propel the market lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 29, 2008

Current position Short: 10% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Thursday.  The one half percent rate cut was expected and the markets just shuffled along.  We exited our Rydex funds at the AM fix and took a quarter percent ding.  Our signal is only slightly negative for Thursday so we just wet our feet with the inverse fund.  Generally a down move comes two days after a large up move so unless Tuesday's "kicker of a day" gets legs, we should turn lower. The Vix continues to remain at historical high levels so caution still rules, stay small.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 28, 2008

Current position Long: 10% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Wednesday with exit at AM fix.  Tuesday was a relief rally acknowledging that the markets were not going to plunge on the anniversary of the 1929 crash.  The strong market gains continued into the close moving our signal from "long" to "money market".  We had already reduced our exposure down to 10% from Tuesdays 20 and will exit early. Today's market move pushed our year-to-date gains to well over +40%. But this market is more about limiting exposure and being flexible and able to adjust for market direction than about raw gains. Large raw gains can often indicate taking large risks, something we work very hard to avoid.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 27, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Monday was a much calmer market day but still managed to frighten up a two and a half to three percent drop in most markets. The late afternoon down turn pushed the VIX to another new high. October 28th and 29th marks the 1929 stock market crash. I am not looking for a repeat this week, as I expect some upside on Tuesday and a rate cut on Wednesday at the Fed Meeting.  Our signal has switched to the long side as the market negativity moved to an extreme, yet I also don't think that we have seen a bottom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 24, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market.  We are expecting more down side for Monday.   Our signal is almost as negative as it was for Friday and we are holding our short position. This week we spent two days in the money market, had one gain, one loss and one tie. Our total for the week was barely positive but it looked great against the 7 to 8 percent losses of the indices. The VIX had its all time closing high on Friday closing over 79 after reaching 89 at the opening. These numbers are very high, but even so we could see even more fear on Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 23, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday.  Even I didn't think we would recover from Thursday's early drop. Glad to be trading small. The first order of things is to preserve capital, then we aim to make money.  Our signal for Friday is a "Short" and we moved into the inverse fund. Recent tech earnings reports have been good, but the comments going forward are negative and putting a damper on the NDX.  For those who like excitement take a look at SRS the Ultra short Real estate ETF, not to buy, but to observe. This ETF seems to be in a blow off phase and once it cracks, will probably give insight to a market bottom. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 22, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Like on last Wednesday, the down move took the NDX to a new closing low for the year, but remained above a recent intraday low.  The same pattern is holding for the other indices and looks like a base is forming. The Vix climbed sharply and closed within a few tenths of an all time closing high. I expect that Thursday should turn higher in line with our strong "long" forecast. We are maintaining a low exposure due to the high Volatility.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 21, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  A bad market day and another mixed signal leaves us in the money market. The VIX did not move up very much on Tuesday's down-move, indicating that fear is leaving the market. But like yesterday's forecast, be cautious, since the danger does not appear to be over. The aftermarket is well above fair value and we should have a higher opening.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 20, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Our focus today is on the Vix coming down to 53.6 from Friday's 69.6.  This is the first hint of an improving market. Though hopeful, large one day drops are usually followed by one or two down days. We have a money market signal for Tuesday. With upward momentum from Monday, and a history of going lower on the Vix falling, we could have an up, then down day. I will wait for a more one-sided signal for our next trade. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 17, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Monday. Our program is working well under these high Vix readings with three out of three good calls this week (+2 money market days).  Although more comfortable with those results, we are still adjusting for the increase in volatility by staying small. Our signal for Monday is very negative and would justify a greater downside exposure in a more normal market. The credit markets seemed to be loosening up on Friday, but there does not seem to be any sense of urgency buying of stocks at this level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 16, 2008* Sorry late post.

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  After dropping about -4% this morning the Nasdaq 100 recovered to close up about +5.5%, another wild ride.  We managed to get about a +5% gain for our clients this week while only being in the market three days of the five days, and exposed an average of only 25% as much as the NDX on those three days. Well above average returns and well below average risk is what we strive for, and have achieved over the past three years.  Friday's signal is a mild "long", the probabilities are looking better than the signal strength would indicate, and most of the change came in the last ten minutes of the market day.  We have to be careful in this dangerous market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 15, 2008

Current position Long: 20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Wednesday's down move took the NDX to a new closing low for the year, but remained about 4% above Friday's intraday low.  The futures market is currently well below fair value, indicating a lower opening and very probably a test of the intraday low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 14, 2008

Current position Short: 12% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 88% money market for Wednesday.  The expected pullback did not carry very far to the down side, but I expect that there is some more to come on Wednesday and we added to our small short position.  Fear continues to dominate the market with the VIX closing over 55. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 13, 2008

Current position Short: 6% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 94% money market for Tuesday.  Gigantic rally on Monday should have cleared away the shorts. As far as I can tell that was not an all-clear signal.  I put my efforts into making money as consistently as possible, and that means stepping along at much less than 100% until the market gets back to normal trading and the VIX is significantly lower. Good chance the markets will open higher, so we will have to wait to see what it looks like later in the day. It will be interesting to see how much more the overseas markets will travel this evening.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 10, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Another wild ride in the stock market Friday. Our signal moved from "long" to "out" and back to "long", but that was close to closing time and we moved into the money market.  The VIX continued to climb making new fearful highs.  A secondary source of selling is from people and companies trying to fund projects that they started, expecting to be able to get financing.  When the bill is due, and no money is in the till, selling securities is the only fast way to generate cash.  We most likely will see a rally Tuesday or Wednesday.  The bond market is closed on Monday giving the Treasury department an extra day to come up with an idea.  With the volume as high as it has been, and the market going straight down, a bounce should come next week regardless of what the Treasury does.  With the credit problems still plaguing the markets it is not unreasonable to compare our crash to 1929.  That crash started out much more quickly and the DOW lost about 46% in only two and a half months. Then there was a partial recovery.  We are now into the problem for a year, at that point stocks were still down about about -36%, roughly the same as our -39%. The market bottom arrived in 1932, almost two and three quarter years after the start of the decline, and by that time the markets had lost over 89% of their original value. On the plus side if this is just a run of the mill crash we can expect it to be over with a 40% to 45% total decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 9, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Friday.  Our tiny position has taken a few hits this week, but the gap between our positive return for the year and the market's negative return has grown significantly wider. It is possible that the S&P is headed for the low of October 2002 and that is still 15% below today's closing price. However, if the S&P continues to fall at today's rate of -7.5% it will only take about two days.  It is very hard to call a bottom when we find ourselves in an area that does not present many comparisons in the way of historical data. A look at our probabilities reflects the situation. it shows that the potential size of a down-day is much larger than that of an up day, even though the chance of down day is less.  Continue to watch the VIX. It closed at 64.3, the largest that I have seen.  This is over three times the average and it needs to go much lower for a stable market. So we are keeping our exposure small. Our signal strength lessened a bit but remained strong and we held our position.   The average hedge fund is down significantly for the year and are adding to the problem by dumping their positions to meet redemption requests.  (The smart money is with us.)  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 8, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Thursday. Stay small. No reason yet to adjust our exposure or position. The Signal remained long and strong, but the market is not responding so we must remain cautious and mostly in the money market.  The Vix index increased, saying fear is growing rather than shrinking and more volatile days are ahead.  Today's news was the joint cut in interest rates by banks around the world. Mostly symbolic and telling us that the countries can and will work together.  The stock market is pricing in a significant drop in earnings going forward from our calculations (and like everything else we do here we have our own method). Some of the drop will be because the Euro is losing ground to the dollar and our multinational corporations get more than half of their earnings from overseas. The rest will be due to economic shrinkage as credit is stifled, companies fail and budgets are cut.  We are again entering a deflationary cycle where cash dominates. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 7, 2008

Current position Long: 7% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 93% money market for Wednesday.  Get small. Large moves in the market, up or down are usually a sign that the market will go lower.  Our Signal remained long and strong, but because the last two strong signal days were ignored by the market, it is telling us that we have an abnormal condition. Over the past 15 years we do not have very many similar situations, and the picture is mixed, so the best way to handle this situation is by keeping our exposure very low. All things considered we cut our exposure in half for a second day.  I believe that it is the unknowns in the overseas economies that are causing the fear in the US markets. We should be seeing a plateau while investors decide if the recovery efforts will work. The markets are now greatly undervalued based on earnings and interest rates, even allowing for a large drop in earnings going forward (if these efforts fail). So expectations are set for a disaster, and once that scenario is ruled out, the markets should work their way back.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 6, 2008

Current position Long: 15% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 85% money market for Tuesday. We blew out half of our long position at the morning fix as a protective move. This is not a normal occurrence, but we like to keep our exposure as small as possible during risky times.  Our signal gained strength and we stayed long with reduced exposure due to the high volatility.  Today's drop can be attributed to two factors, the overseas banking problem that unfolded over the weekend and the wave of stock dumping by frightened investors who reached their limit Friday and could not stand another day of down. The Vix is at all time high levels indicating extreme fear and we must keep our exposure low. On the good news side the Fed is planning a Credit Default Swap marketplace. That move will provide a way to value the paper that is at the root of the problem. 

This is our first losing day since 9/17. I checked the Morningstar ranking of over 15,800 mutual funds for a three year period and we have out-performed every one of them.  Tuesday could still cause trouble, if you look at our probability chart on the Forecast page you will see that the amplitudes on the down side are very substantial even though the likelihood of going down is less than that of going higher. The futures market also closed weak. Remain cautious of this market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 3, 2008

Current position Long:  35% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 65% money market for Monday. All of our accounts are now at new all time highs.  We gained about 6.5% for the week, conservatively keeping our market exposure to less that half that of the Nasdaq 100 at all times and spending two days 100% in the money market.  If anyone still doubts that this method of investing works you haven't been watching. There is now a 68% difference between our 38.5% gain and the Nasdaq 100's -29.5% loss.  And since nearly half of our gain was made on the long side it wasn't done by a simple   short. These are our real accounts for real clients and yes we are taking on new clients.  The Nasdaq 100 climbed 4% higher Friday morning in anticipation of the House passing the bail-out bill but the high didn't last long and at the final bell the market closed off more than 1% we got to watch from the money market. The signal for Monday is "long", I expect to see some of the volatility drain out of the market going forward. The Treasury is now set up to feed any failing banks to the big five banks, and the Fed will most likely cut rates. This should help calm shocks to the markets as investors see patterns in the methodology. (Correction on Thursdays comments CIT should have been C, CIT Group is different from Citigroup). Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 2, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  More bad economic news exacerbated the downtrend that started on Wednesday night. Thursday's gain for our accounts pushed our year-to-date total over +38% and a nice way to start the fourth quarter. We have a very strange signal for Friday, in that we have both strong positive and strong negative components. This left us with a slightly negative signal, with lots of uncertainty.  There are now five major surviving banks, jpm, cit, bac, ms and gs and as a group they should benefit the most from a passage of the "rescue bill". One thing is clear to me, Congress must limit the number of pages in a bill. The original bill had three pages. It has grown to 451(associated press number). Few can read and absorb a bill this size. I say vote to limit all bills to 25 pages or less. If more is needed, use a second 25 page bill. This should cut out most of the BS, and make it so Congress really knows what they are voting on.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: October 1, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  So far nothing has changed enough to reduce my caution. I expect the bail-out-bill to pass this evening, but our signal is negative. There is talk about suspending the mark-to-market requirements for mortgage valuations.  Of course that is the same thinking that got them into this mess. Don't look at my ability to pay back that loan today, I'll be making much more money next year.  A peek at the early aftermarket shows the markets moving higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 30, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  (Sorry I thought this was posted last night.) We ended this month almost where we started it with all our accounts at, or within two tenths of a percent of, a new high for the year. After an early loss in the beginning of the month we managed to finish strong putting together 7 positive days in a row in the midst of a financial meltdown. We reduced our exposure consistent with the increase in volatility and uncertainty.  This also closes out another positive quarter, with a strong 11%+ gain.  For Wednesday our signal lost strength and moved fully into neutral territory leaning very slightly to the positive side, but not enough to take even a small position. It is still exceptionally dangerous and we could very well see some more bad drops in the near future. Like they say on TV, we are professionals, don't try this at home.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 29, 2008

Current position Long:  20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Horrendous day.  Not since 1987 have we seen this type of a market down day.  Perhaps the markets are telling the law makers that they need to hurry.  Our accounts gained 1.9% on the day, by being only partially short and having the rest safely tucked in the money market.  Although we show large gains over the past three years we believe the best way to make money is to avoid taking unnecessary risks. So we adjust our exposure to both the perceived risk and the volatility. It is also important to note that we made almost exactly as much of a return on our long positions as on our short positions since the beginning of 2008, showing that with effort, a good return could have been made on the long side of the market this difficult year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 26, 2008

Current position Short: 10% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 90% money market for Monday.  I am getting the sense that the markets may not do the victory dance when the bail-out gets approved.  And some form of a bail-out will almost definitely be approved. Our signal remained "short", but also became less negative meaning that the enthusiasm for going lower has decreased. A great amount of uncertainty surrounds the markets and we once again reduced our exposure to it. Even with our limited exposure we managed to gain 3.8% for the week having every day correctly positioned. I suggest you talk with us. We have better than hedge fund returns, and have done so with less risk, no cash tie-ups, no high fees and complete visibility. And we have done it for years.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 25, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Friday. We reversed our position, but remain relatively little exposed. This small exposure was enough to gain us about 3.5% so far this week as both the S&P and NDX  lost over 3%, fully exposed to the market forces. Thursday could have been the market blow-off on news of a possible resolution of the bail-out. That seems to be what our numbers are telling us with a strong negative signal for Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 24, 2008

Current position Long:  20% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  Our signal vacillated near the close, changing our weak "long" signal to one for the "money market".  At 20% long we are not too exposed, but we will make a decision in the morning regarding an early exit. The Congressional hearings continue. Warren Buffet has started the move to accumulate stock in the bank holding companies. When we look back to recent history we saw money go into internet IPOs then out of them into Real-estate then out of Real-estate into emerging markets and commodities then out of emerging markets and commodities and into ?... Could banks be the next big play. BOA's purchase of MER, GS's conversion to a bank holding company and Mr. Buffet's $5 Billion move indicates that it could be starting, so keep your eyes open as some more shocks will probably come first. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 23, 2008

Current position Long:  37.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Wednesday.  Bernanke, Paulson and Cox presented their case to Congress this morning. Investors realize that this is not a done-deal, and even if it was, there are other problems that will arise out of it.  So the market is paying the price, declining over 5% in the last two days. We expect Wednesday to go higher. Our signal is strong and the probabilities look good. Our program is handling these difficult times quite well, but we are still aware of the dangers and remain only partially invested. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 22, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  We are holding our small short position another day as our signal gained only a small amount of strength. The bail-out plan is being questioned. A better bail-out plan, I think, would be to purchase only a partial interest in the bad paper. 50%-60%. That would set a value on the paper, provide working capital for the problem companies, allow more companies to participate and still leave the government some working room. I was glad to see that Office Max OMX survived today's sharp drop, with a loss of only 2%.  They had a secondary exposure to Lehman Brothers and lost about 20% on Friday. I thought that hedge funds might finish them off, so I am glad that they were not badly hurt today. (We do not have a position in OMX).   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 19, 2008

Current position Short: 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money for Monday.  Rydex inverse funds will continue to operate as usual since they are not dependant on short sales to obtain their inverse characteristics. Instead they utilize the futures markets and other techniques described on their web site.  

From our point of view what we are watching unfold is a conflict between the three titans: governments, multinational corporations, and hedge funds. It is obvious that neither of the groups are capable of self regulation.  Each of their operations has been flawed.  The corporations convinced the government to relax laws and look the other way as they scooped up huge profits. The governments allowed themselves to be lobbied, bribed and manipulated and the hedge funds, without conscience, moved in to decimate the playing field. They are all responsible for the current destructive state of affairs. Before I get a barrage of emails, I will let you know that I was just as much opposed to the operation of the labor unions that tied up the corporations and state governments in the second half of the 20th century. Good intentions and need start the pendulum off, greed adds power and it goes too far allowing opposite good intentions and need to stop it and push it back, only to have greed come in to push it back too far the other way.  

Not to get too long winded, our signal turned negative. We continue to be cautious since there is an abnormal amount of random and unpredictable news events effecting the market at this time, so we held our exposure to 20%. The VIX remains over 30 and our T-Index remains in a deflationary mode at -131, telling us the "all clear" bell has not rung.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 18, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  The markets had a strong rally based on talks about implementing a plan similar to what saved the markets and economy when the savings and loans failed.  Our signal remained long but weakened. With uncertainty coming from the domino failings of financial institutions and positive attempts from the government, there was no good reason to take a position.   we have always made our money by avoiding excessive risk.  It does not matter if we miss the bottom, every day is a bottom when you work either side of the market. There is concern about money market accounts, but not with Rydex who uses only government paper in their money market.  Also, although brokerage houses are having trouble, that trouble has not appeared to have spread to mutual fund companies.  Rydex also is less exposed on their long and short index funds because they only take a position on the difference between the amount of capital in their long funds vs the amount in their short funds. This means a much smaller market exposure than other mutual fund companies have to the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 17, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  Carnage on wall street.  The indexes closed on or near their lows with the financials closing off the bottom as the short sellers covered and moved on to more prey.  Crammer on TV, called it last night putting the blame on the chairman of the SEC, Christopher Cox, for doing away with the up-tick rule on shorts. This move paved the way for the hedge funds to raid the banks and other weak stocks. Just another in a series of the protectors leaving the door to the hen house open.  Was today's action capitulation or the start of another down leg?  Our signal though positive, lost strength, and combined with the large drop in the indexes  moved us into the money market.  There is serious wealth destruction going on that ripples through the economy. Our T-Index closed at -368 (strong deflationary indication) but with 90 day t-bills at 0.2% the index is not terrible. We will continue to to utilize our program to step through these tough times and significantly reduce our exposure to keep the daily changes in a reasonable area. We reduce our exposure when conditions become either highly volatile or whenever there is a greater than normal amount of uncertainly. Our program has done very well and I expect it to continue to be the best method for generating significant positive returns on our investments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 16, 2008

Current position Long:  30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Wednesday.  The Fed left interest rates unchanged, I didn't agree with that move, but the markets did not mind and ended higher. Our signal strengthened and we held our "long" position into Wednesday. The Vix pulled back a little indicating a reduction in panic.  The 90 day t-bill rate crept up only a little as a large amount of money remain in the safe haven waiting for the next opportunity.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 15, 2008

Current position Long:  30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Tuesday.  We have a solid long signal, the markets are showing high volatility and investor confusion. This combination calls for reduced exposure. Avoiding unnecessary risk plays a major roll in our investing.  We constantly work to balance perceived risk against possible gain.  The 90 day t-bills rate fell by .65% that indicates to me that investors are expecting the Fed to cut rates by about 1/2% on Tuesday. Monday's sharp drop was orderly and the Fed will do what it can to keep the damage from getting worse. Our T-Index moved dramatically negative reflecting strong evidence of deflation. With interest rates as low as they are, it is not a pessimistic factor for the economy. The events of the past few days will have a significant effect on the long term direction of the market. Proving once again that it is easier to forecast one day at a time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 14, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  With a flat signal we stayed in the money market.  Tuesday we have another Fed meeting.  Inflation is becoming deflation so a rate raise is definitely off the table.  A nearer term concern is Lehman Brothers, the Treasury wants to resolve this problem without a public bailout. It might be too late for a wink and a handshake to do it. I do think that they can arrive at a smooth landing for the breakup given some more time, but the aftermarket opened with the S&P off more than three percent.  Weighing on top of Lehman is AIG with there own brand of trouble. Some hedge funds are probably going to add to the down side mix with  liquidations.  We are not in the market to roll dice.  So being in the money market for Monday suits me just fine.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 11, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday. Our signal moved sharply lower at the close ending as a "short". When a signal turns very late it is not as credible. We will remain in the money market and watch from the sidelines. The last two days of gains erased Tuesday's loss and made us positive for the week.  Hedge funds have done very poorly this year and what could be happening here, is that individual hedge funds are facing large withdrawals.  Since these funds are huge they can move the overall markets and these are forced decisions not trading decisions. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 10, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Wednesday's market had a small recovery. Our signal weakened only slightly but it still remains exceptionally strong.  The NDX finally stopped falling for a day. The small gain makes it easier for a rally to take hold, though I would have preferred a larger gain.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 9, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday's decline left us with an exceptionally strong "long" signal. This is the kind of signal that usually results in a highly reliable and large "up" day.  We shall see. I did not increase our exposure since we were just subjected to two large dings in the past 4 trading days, and would be more inclined to reduce our exposure had the signal been of more average strength.  The NDX is doing the falling knife trick.  Dropping over 10% in the past 7 days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 8, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  The markets roared, then split apart with the NDX falling behind and closing lower. If you are holding a bank stock or financial that did not close higher on Monday you should take a hard look at it. Today was the day for those stocks to shine and if they didn't, there most likely is a problem. The NDX on the other hand has gone lower 6 days in a row, losing almost 8%, and should be poised for a rebound.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 6, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Our signal is still positive, but has weakened considerably and we moved into the money market for Monday.  The worse appears to be over, from our perspective and I am holding my positive view going into December.  The news regarding Fannie and Freddie, that I suggested would come "soon after the close of the Democratic National Convention" came after the market close on Friday afternoon. The government will seize Fanny and Freddie prior to the opening of the markets on Monday. The common stock should greatly depreciate if not go to zero with the preferred stock maybe doing a little better. This should bring new money back into the mortgage market and help turn the stock market around. The banking ETFs that contain Fanny and Freddie may stall on the opening, but should gain from there. You can go to the CME site <http://www.cme.com> to watch the action in the futures market late Sunday afternoon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 4, 2008

Current position Long:  40% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 60% money market for Friday. I can not change the wind, but I can adjust my sails to always reach my destination.....Jimmy Dean.  Our method has provided us with gains in over 65% of our trades this year, but every once in a while we get a ding that hurts until we return to new highs. Our signal continues to be strong, but its strength has dropped from yesterday, so we reduced our market exposure, as we hold on to a partial long position. Nothing fundamental has changed, just one of those spooky days. But that doesn't mean that it can't be followed by a few more. The aftermarket is down so expect a lower opening. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 3, 2008

Current position Long:  50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 31% Rydex S&P 500 2x, 19% money market for Thursday.  The markets continued to slide lower. This was not totally a surprise since our long term down cycle ended on Wednesday and that sometimes makes for a more negative day than would be expected.  Thursday however starts the first day of our up-cycle and that generally gives us an extra boost.  Our signal is very strong and we moved more funds into the Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x fund.  If we are correct the market bottom has been hit and the markets will show an upward climb from here into December.  But nothing is for sure, and so we must continue day by day, expecting to get dinged along the way as we pursue our goals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: September 2, 2008

Current position Long:  31% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 31% Rydex S&P 500 2x, 38% money market for Wednesday.  Tuesday was a good day to be in the money market as the markets made a round trip going way up then down. These gyrations triggered a positive on our radar and we moved long.  We also distributed our position between the S&P and NDX. So we are partially leveraged to the up side for Wednesday. I expect this week to provide a pivot point for the markets to go higher, but we will still take it one day at a time, as we step through gyrating oil prices and election news surprises.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 29, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  The NDX had a large drop and our accounts picked up a good gain, closing the month at a new high for all.  It is very important to understand that large gains by themselves are not our goal. We seek large gains with as little overall market exposure as possible. So although we may be leveraged on some days, we compensate for it by being partially or completely in the money market when we do not have a strong enough signal to take a directional position.  With Barack Obama on one side and Sarah Palin on the other, the United States is finally becoming the country it long claimed to be, with freedom and opportunity for everyone.  We are living in exciting times and I am hopeful that whoever becomes the new leader brings this county back to prosperity. Have a nice long weekend and I will post again on Tuesday afternoon.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 28, 2008

Current position Short: 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Friday.  The markets got a boost from the upward revision of the GDP as well as a drop in the price of oil. The NDX  was weaker than the S&P on Thursday and judging by our probabilities the NDX looks like it will turn negative for Friday.  We have taken a small short position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 27, 2008

Current position Long:  60% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Thursday.  We held fast on our long position.  Our signal strength flicked a bit near the close but always remained long and closed basically unchanged.  My new long term forecast (posted yesterday) mentioned that news or rumor would be coming on Fanny and Freddy. The rumor heard today is that there might be a merger of the two, with cost savings and new management. Read the long term forecast!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 26, 2008

Current position Long:  60% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 40% money market for Wednesday.  Our signal turned to a moderately strong "long", I have only applied a minimum of leverage as I see the main trend as down.  Mortgage rates are too high when compared to the 10 year rates and they are impeding a recovery. These are discussed in my new long term comments just posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 25, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  More mixed signals for Tuesday.  I am looking for a hard drop over the next week or so followed by a longer term upside recovery into December.  A shallow drop may prolong the down side. Often we see the Fed act on aggressive selling, while the gradual whittling away of prices does not seem to get as much attention.  The Next Fed meeting is September 16th. Keep your eyes focused on the next two weeks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Mixed signals for Monday put us in the money market. The indexes are holding up quite well and were not down very much for the week. Oil backed off and helped push the markets higher on Friday. Still looking for some downside going into Labor Day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 21, 2008

Current position Short: 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Friday.  For Friday we have a strong "short" signal. Thursday marked our first wrong call  since July 28th. That streak is a record for us. Going forward we are looking for more downward pressure through Labor day.  We also finally got the spike in oil prices that I had mentioned in my July 24th long-term update but had pretty much given up on.  Interest rates still behaving well as our T-Index remained at +29.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 20, 2008

Current position Long:  62.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Thursday. The market's early morning rally collapsed but recovered enough to close positive. It also provided us with a strong "long" signal for Thursday.  We applied only a slight bit of leverage, remembering that we are still in a market with a downward bias.  Both short term and long term interest rates fell and our T-Index closed at +29.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 19, 2008

Current position: Long, 25% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  I am expecting a small bounce on Wednesday. Our signal improved a little and toyed between the money market and long. Finally settling on the money market, but leaving the probabilities looking positive.  I continue to believe the market will go lower into the end of the month, but there should be a few days to breath and Wednesday could be one of them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 18, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Tuesday.  We saw the first cracks in the market Monday. I expect the drop to accelerate over the next two weeks, not every day, but overall. Our signal is slightly weaker and enough to take a small short position even though the posted probabilities seem to be leaning higher.  We will continue to carefully step through this market. T-Index healthy at +37.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 15, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  The large drop in the price of oil Friday did very little for the market. This reinforces my view that the next two weeks should see lower stock prices. This said, a continued drop in oil and commodities will at some point be wonderful fuel for a stock rally which we are looking for very soon after Labor day. If the fall in commodity prices is rapid then we might just get the rally early as Labor day is only two weeks away. Our T-Index is a healthy +42 and inflation is now a minor issue so get ready for a rally.  Once again, the gap between our returns and those of the indexes widen. I appeal to our readers to contact us about becoming clients. We have been very successful at keeping our risk and market exposure down while taking advantage of opportunities for gain.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 14, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Friday.  Thursday was another good day for the markets. Our accounts have gained over 9% since July 28th when we had our last losing day. And since nothing lasts forever I expect to get a ding in the next day or so. Our signal is mildly negative so we are only partially exposed to the markets.  The NDX had a short term high Thursday, but the SPX is still a percent below Mondays high of 1305. I expect to see some cracks in the NDX on Friday, if that happens it might just carry over into Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 13, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Wednesday the NDX reached the short term closing high we were looking for, but the intraday high was reached on Monday, and our signal turned "Long" for Thursday. This leads me to believe that there may be some more up-side before the downturn. Those of you who have followed us for a long time know the daily signals are the most important and can contradict our extended views. As we are still in a topping phase I am reluctant to expose ourselves to more than 50% at this time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 12, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday.  Most markets were lower on Tuesday, but our NDX held fast. Our signal moved up only enough to go flat and we moved fully into the money market. The fall in commodity  prices should be fueling a rally, but the drop in home prices is keeping this positive in check. Now with both home prices and commodity prices on the decline there is no inflation concern. The relative position of short to long term rates is healthy so deflation is not yet a concern. I will post a new long term forecast next week that will take into account these issues as well as the now strengthening dollar. There are some areas of the economy that should benefit from the new conditions and some that won't.  The old leaders are about to be replaced. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software. 

Comments: August 11, 2008

Current position: Short, 62.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Tuesday.  It is hard to step through a top correctly, but if things go according to plan we should encounter a down day for Tuesday and another up swing marking the short term top on Wednesday. Russia and Georgia at some point should spike oil and the ever present banking crisis should also present some less than desirable news to push the markets lower as this month progresses. Our T-Index did well and closed at +33 moving the short and long term rates into a more normal relative position with each other.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 8, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Monday.  Even though this has been a down 2008 for the general markets, we have obtained more than two thirds of our +31% gain for the year, during the days we were long.  Friday the market had significant gains as the dollar strengthened and oil fell. Russia and Georgia battled over the region's main city, but it did nothing to stop oil's fall. The psychology has definitely changed. I will continue to use caution, as I still expect a down August for the markets, and will feel better going long during September. With such high record earnings under their belt the oil companies could attempt to influence the elections by allowing gas prices to fall more rapidly in the two months prior to election day.  (Just a thought, not a suggestion or expectation.) That would fit in well with my view, for a strong stock market in the fall.  10 year rates are falling as inflation is moving off the table as a major concern. For the near term I expect a peak mid week then lower through the month.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 7, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Our signal strengthened enough to bring us back to neutral, but remained slightly negative. The S&P might have made a small double top in the 1285+ area and may have topped out while the NDX looks like it could have more to go. We had an excellent week true to our goals, having only been exposed to the markets two of the five days, using leverage when we felt fairly certain of a gain. Our total leveraged exposure for the week was only 50% as much as being fully long or fully short. And we took home a sizeable gain, both from the long side and the short side. That is how the program is supposed to work, of course some weeks are better than others. Looking forward, I expect any additional market upside this month will peak by next Wednesday. Our T-Index remains positive at +18. Banking and oil should dominate the markets for awhile. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 6, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  Though all of our Rydex accounts were in the money market our Jefferson National accounts did pick up another 2% for the day.  The upside enthusiasm seen these past two days will most likely fade away by Thursday.  Our signal is negative and we have taken a partial short position. I expect that we are close to a short term top for August and by next week should be on a downward path through month end. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 5, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday (Rydex accounts). (Jefferson National accounts are long).  With our two day change for this week jumping 5.3% and our total year-to-date moving up to +30.6%,  I need to ask those who aren't already our accounts:  What is preventing you from signing up with us as your account managers?  For Wednesday I expect some carry-over to the up-side.  A strong opening should give some back later in the day while a weak opening should improve (just my opinion).  The late afternoon market spurt moved our signal to flat after being long most of the day.  Do not read too much into this up-move as I still expect to see problems as the month progresses. Our long term forecast updated through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 4, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Tuesday.  The Fed meets on Tuesday. Monday's drop may have been in anticipation of some more negative comments but I don't see anything coming.  Clearly we are not out of the woods and the mortgage/banking problem will continue, but commodity prices are clearly receding diminishing the inflation worry.  No reason at this time to raise or lower interest rates. So we should be in a waiting game with an eye on the dollar. Our long term forecast updated through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: August 1, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Through the analysis of normal daily trading patterns for August combined with the overall cyclical trend, I expect the market to perform better in the first half of August than in the second half. And the last week in August should be especially bad from this perspective.  But after that, the markets should do a lot better, showing increased strength as the months wear on. Our T-Index is a plus 17 with interest rates low and that should help. I have updated our long term forecast through December please view it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 31, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Thursday was an inverse repeat of Wednesday's market with the NDX finally breaking down near the close allowing us to gain a small amount.  Friday's signal is negative, but less so than Thursday's so the downward pressure has been reduced. Adding to this on the upside is that Friday is also the first day of the month, which is usually positive.  We shall watch the market  from the sidelines in line with reducing our exposure to the markets unless we have a strong enough signal to warrant the risk. Additions to our long term forecast are really up this time so take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 30, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Thursday.  We rode a difficult day to a successful close. For Thursday we are aimed back down with half our funds and in the money market with the rest. Oil headed back up on Wednesday and if it does not retreat significantly I expect the stock markets to start down once again. Sorry, I did not realize that our longterm forecast update did not post, it is up now.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 29, 2008

Current position: Long 75% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Wednesday.  Oil fell and the stock market moved significantly higher.  We have a strong signal for Wednesday. Most of our components are in agreement and I expect Tuesday's rally to carry further.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 28, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Both the S&P and NDX managed to close above their pre rally lows, but the rally has failed. Trying to look further into the week we have the possibilities for an up Wednesday and a down Friday we shall see how it develops.  Recent update on long term comments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 26, 2008

Current position: Long 30% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 70% money market for Monday.  Overall market sentiment is still negative.  The recent run-up has left the market a bit over-bought. Our signal is a mild long and we took a small position. The S&P 500 earnings forecasts continue to go lower.  Seeing some stabilizing here would make me more optimistic.  The market evaluation has taking into account some further reductions as its valuation is on the low side looking at past years. I have updated my long term comments so take a look. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 24, 2008

Current position: Short, 30% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 30% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x, 40% money market for Friday. Our signal became more negative and we took a short position in both the S&P and NDX through the Rydex funds. The markets were well behaved and produced a stable signal. The large drop in the Dow and S&P is not a good sign for continuation of the turn around. I would prefer to see only a small attempt at a pull back, with buyers rushing in. So the rally may be over. If Friday's change is moderate, that direction will probably continue for Monday.  Our T-Index has turned positive closing at +11. The long term forecast was updated today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 23, 2008

Current position: Short, 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Thursday.  The instability in the markets near the close continues and has now appeared multiple times since the 4th of July. Today our signal moved from money market to short at the close. Instability makes our signal less reliable.  The rally has gone on for six days.  Some of the indexes are over bought and the oil index is probably over sold, short term. Our T-Index which reached a negative -35 two days ago is now only -5. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 22, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Wednesday (Rydex accounts).  Our signal was unstable near the close.  We are long 50% in the Jefferson National accounts which got placed earlier. The closing signal was a moderate "long", but unstable signals are not as reliable. Still, I would expect to see some upside on Wednesday as the NDX has already pulled back for two days and closed slightly higher Tuesday.  We could look at today as a one day reversal. The NDX has not participated in this rally, up little more than 1% while the Dow has moved closer to 6%. So it may be time for some market rotation.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 21, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Tuesday.  Monday left our accounts with a small gain.  If the aftermarket trend holds the NDX will most likely see a new low on Tuesday.  Our signal calls for the money market but is leaning to the down side.  The earnings reports did all the work of sending the futures markets lower after the close.  We will miss the action as we move out of the fray.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: July 18, 2008

Current position: Short, 75% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 25% money market for Monday.  This was a good week for us as we tacked on over 5%. Today our signal became more negative and we once again increased our exposure in the Inverse fund.  Is this market rally for real?  Based on the NDX we don't really have a rally. The financials are leading the way with the S&P banking index up over 35% in three days.  Put into perspective that index is still down slightly for the month of July and the large daily changes make it exceptionally risky.  Call us for our free new account information package.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 17, 2008

Current position: Short, 50% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Friday.  The Dow led the way on Thursday gaining over 200 points with the financials continuing to be strong. Our signal became more negative and we increased our exposure in the 2x inverse fund to 50%.  After the bell Google disappointed with their earning driving the NDX futures market much lower. This could put an early lid on the rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 16, 2008

Current position: Short, 12.5% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 87.5% money market for Thursday.  We took a solid gain on Wednesday and moved most of our capital into the money market.  Some negative action in interest rates has offset other positive aspects of this market giving us a slightly negative signal.  Early after-market trading is also to the down-side.  Our T-Index has slipped to -33, but with interest rates low that by itself is of no concern. The probabilities look better for the S&P as the financials may have found a temporary base.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 15, 2008

Current position: Long 62.5% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 37.5% money market for Wednesday. The market gyrated wildly Tuesday, but our signal mostly held firm with some additional strength. I expect that Wednesday will be a strong up day. We continue to be cautious and are holding back. We could get a good size pop in here that could last for a week or two, then expect the trend to once again turn lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 14, 2008

Current position: Long 50% Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 50% money market for Tuesday.  Tuesday's signal stayed "long", but started strong, weakened, then ended strong. Having been battered last week I chose to limit our commitment to 50%. The bank scare is very real as anyone can see by looking at the stock prices in the banking world. The rate of decline is startling with the average bank down about 30% over the past three months.  Again I suggest that you limit your banking exposure to $100K per account. There is still money to be made in these markets, but the required skill level has increased.  If you would like some help getting through these tough times please contact us.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 13, 2008

Current position: Short, 25% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Monday.  The market continued it's chaotic path all week.  Causing our signal to oscillate much more than normal. Monday's signal moved from very strong negative to mildly negative to flat. We most likely will hold our small short position as Monday's do have a history of following Friday and the markets did not lose that much overall this past week. Sunday the Bush administration asked congress to divert public money towards buying the failing stock of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This comes on the heels of the seizure of IndyMac on Friday. The FDIC said that IndyMac was not even on the list of the 90 banks most likely to fail. Our recommendation is reduce your exposure to $100k per account (check the bank for details) and do it soon. The aftermarket is rallying about 1% as I write this, but I don't expect it to hold.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 10, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Friday.  Still no obvious bottom.  Our signal is very flat. Oil jumped on Thursday knocking the wind out of an early stock rally, but the rally made another half hearted attempt later in the day and the markets closed higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 9, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Thursday.  We reduced our exposure by half at the morning fix on Wednesday. Our program has been working well, warning us to exit the markets early the past two days. But the market's recent late afternoon gyrations have cost us, It is good that this type of activity does not happen very often.  It is unfortunately unavoidable as it is not something we can forecast. Thursday we sit in the money market. Longer term I am looking for a sustainable rally after Labor day, with the most likely scenario being a failed rally and test of the lows sometime prior to it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 8, 2008

Current position: 80% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 20% money market for Wednesday.  The large drop in the price of oil and the Fed Chief's comments took a long time to take hold but the market had a strong move late in the day. We had a very strong signal, but the market's last few minutes drained most of our signals strength.  and the NDX also closed on the high for the day.  Under these conditions I would prefer being much less exposed to the markets and will reduce our exposure at the morning fix. We hardly ever trade in the AM and almost always it is to reduce exposure.  This is the first time we traded at the AM fix two days in a row.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 7, 2008 --oops this is late sorry

Current position: Short, 20% Rydex Inverse Nasdaq 100 2x, 80% money market for Tuesday.  Our signal swung from "long" to "short" to unstable at the close. We were left with a small 20% short position and will most likely exit the market at the morning fix.  Our oil component is expecting oil to move higher but that might not translate into a lower general market as the the indexes are mostly already oversold.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 3, 2008

Current position: 100% money market for Monday.  Happy fourth to all. We squeaked through the week with a small gain.  But this is a dangerous market with oil providing some bad cross winds. To counter this problem we now have an oil component that can give us some additional insight.  This lets us utilize the oil influence to better sort out hazy signals. We closed the day with a slightly negative, signal for Monday. Our oil component had the NDX leaning to the up-side. We moved in favor of caution and 100% into the money market, preferring to pick up a little interest over the three day weekend.  Recent market behavior has punished even the fertilizer group, knocking them down 15%-20% in the past two weeks. Our method of investing one-day at-a-time keeps your money liquid and guards against being swept away with the masses when a market tanks. Over the last 30 months we have outperformed the average hedge fund by well over 2 to1. Call or email for our information package.  Our rates are low and we don't hold your money, we just send our signals to your account at Rydex or Jefferson National. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 2, 2008

Current position: 37.5% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 62.5% money market for Thursday. The markets were battered today after being up earlier. We gave up most of yesterday's gains and slightly increased our exposure for Thursday.  Thursday is a shortened pre-holiday trading day with Rydex closing shop at 12:45PM Eastern time.  Treasury Secretary Paulson picked a bad day to talk about the bank failure process. Many watching were probably thinking "uh-oh here comes another one".  Our signal weakened at the close going from a mild "long" to a "money market" but we were already committed at 37.5%. Hopefully the shortened day will prevent much bloodshed. On the positive side our oil related indicators are calling for a small recovery in the NDX for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: July 1, 2008

Current position: 25% Long, Rydex Nasdaq 100 2x, 75% money market for Wednesday.  We have a very confused signal for Wednesday. Strong indications that it could move either way and unsteady going into the close.  We reduced our exposure to 25% long. Our T-Index climbed to +37, a good sign. The NDX hit a short term low today and closed near its high, and looking at the charts, this is usually another good sign for the up-side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2008 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2007 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2006 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2005 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2004 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2004

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2003

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2002

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2001

For earlier comments made early in year 2001

For earlier comments made in year 2000

Don't confuse brains with a bull market.

-----Humphrey Neil