Daily Market Commentary

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Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary (and next day's position.)

Comments: December 30, 2015

Current position for Thursday: (updated) Primary program Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund. Thursday is the last trading day of the year. We have already closed out out Long/Money market program for the year with a gain of +43.4% for 2015. Also closed out for 2015 is our most conservative retirement program with a gain of +22.5%. Actual individual returns need to deduct our fee. Both programs have much less market exposure and therefore much less risk than the NDX buy and hold approach. Volatility has is now a little below the long term median and our Market Structure remains positive. More upside is expected. We will be trading the S&P in the early part of the new year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 29, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. Tuesday was an exceptionally strong day, influenced by oil and the normal variety of end of the year Mutual fund adjusting and positioning, difficult to forecast. Good news is, it improved volatility. Thursday the stock markets will have a normal full day but will be influenced by early closing of the bond markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 28, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. The markets closed slightly lower and we were only partially exposed to that move. All signals have turned flat for Tuesday. Our Market Structure Level remains moderately positive and the Volatility remains close to the 23 year median. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 24, 2015 (late post)

Current position for Monday: Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% money market. Only four more trading days till year end. Our Market Structure level has climbed a step dampening the next day's move, but I still believe the year end rally will continue for Monday. Volume should be low and movements small. We are having an excellent year and I hope to have more of you "watchers" out there join us by opening an account for the new year. Happy holiday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 23, 2015 (late post)

Current position for Thursday: Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% money market. Shortened trading day for Christmas Eve. We reduced our exposure, but overall the markets remain in a positive mode. Our Anticipatory trend remains positive along with our Market Structure Level. Volatility is in a normal range and good for trading. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 22, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All programs are long and strong. Probabilities look good and the year end trend seems to be in sync with our signals. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 21, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The market is sending us mixed messages, perhaps due to year end forces. We will step through this following our individual program signals. Overall we have a positive Market Structure level and medium volatility with the Feds moving out of sync with (1) a deflationary economy from our T-Index, (2) a contracting economy from S&P earnings and a dull economy from (3) the large percentage of unemployed and no longer looking for work statistic. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 18, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. The last two days took a toll on the S&P and it is now down -2.6% for the year. Our most conservative program with much less market exposure than the S&P ended the week at a new weekly high, up, +21.1% ytd. Overall we have a money market signal for Monday and without considering the year end effects it is leaning lower. There usually are some extra market influences due to tax selling and repositioning during the last two weeks of the year. There is also a substantial uptrend that generally takes place starting on the 21st of December through January 2nd of the new year over the past 30 years. So the possibility of year end influences may come into play again starting with Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 17, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market.. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Another drop in oil priced took its toll on the markets as oil closed under $35 per barrel and forced the markets to give up all of yesterday's gains. Following our signals we further reduced our exposure for Friday. The long term trend remains positive, oil is causing some near term problems but the added volatility should be a boon for our accounts. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 16, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The quarter point increase tended to overshadow the news that the S&P500 final earnings for the third quarter declined 1.39%. Now why would the FED raise rates as the economy contracts? Sorry I don't have an answer. Our signal has weakened but remains positive. Our Market Structure level took another step lower, a good sign. Investors like to believe that the Fed is doing the right thing and most likely they will respond positively with some upside carry over on Thursday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 15, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The market backed off the highs preparing for a rate hike. I believe that the market will be fine with any hike up to 0.25%. Our Primary and Hot Money programs have reduced their exposure, but remain long with the rest of our programs. Volatility is mid-range. Oil showed gains and our Market Structure level fell a step supporting our expectations for another up-day.

When interest rates first go up it causes an increase in inflation as it adds to all costs of doing business. It isn't until later increases when it reaches a point where interest rates are so high it stops business and kills inflation. So the market should be able to survive the first couple of hikes. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 14, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The day followed the script fairly well. A sell-off in the morning and a recovery and gain in the afternoon and oil turned positive. All signals are positive for Tuesday. The expectation is that any raise by the Fed up to 1/4% should be fine with the markets as long as oil does not start another leg down. Although there are a lot of high paying jobs that will be lost to these lower oil prices there will be more gains in other areas due to consumers having more money to spend due to lower oil/gas prices. This will put the new dollars in exactly the right place for improving the economy. Tuesday general trend to move opposite Monday's direction combined with the Fed meeting this week should keep the markets from moving up very fast. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 11, 2015

Current position for Monday: Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The markets tumbled about 3.6% last week, our programs took a much smaller hit as although they were caught in last Monday's sharp oil drop they avoided much of the later week's decline. Friday got pressure from oil and then junk bonds when Third Avenue Management blocked withdrawals from their high yield fund. For Monday the normal direction would be to follow Friday's sharp decline and go lower. Some investors looking at Friday's market will place trades to get out Monday morning and the early trading most likely will be down, but we have other positives that come into play and in total I am giving a weak nod to closing on the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 10, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. We remain flat going into Friday. Volatility is low but climbing and our Market Structure level remains close to the top. The market seems to be getting ready to make another attempt at new highs. The NDX has fallen about 1.5% so far this week and I don't expect too much more prior to the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 9, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. Best to stay away for another day. The Market Structure level is climbing, and that will probably make for a rally that should carry into the end of this year, but the start may be delayed a day or more. The market drop today helped the volatility and that should pay us back going forward, for now we wait. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 8, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Oil continued lower taking the bulk of the indexes with it. Our Market Structure climbed a level limiting the chance of much upside and probabilities are mostly flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 7, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Over the past 20 years, 90% of the time, any day the oil index took a sharp drop the NDX has also gone down with it. Monday was no different. For the short term eyes will be focused on oil and oil's direction should guide the overall markets for Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 4, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We held our long positions for Monday and added our volatility focused program to the mix. Friday's big news was the jobs report. The market was already set on going higher as the aftermarket was well on its way with solid early gains before the report was released. I expect more upside on Monday but from there it could get more tricky. The last few days have seen increased volatility which should help our signals stand out from the noise. Our Hot Money program had the strong jump this week and is now up over 57% for the year to date. If you are interested in more information on our programs give me a call. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 3, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is100% Money market. Thursday's large pullback will improve the market's low volatility condition. Oil climbed and the dollar fell providing a "reason" for some upside. Our probabilities are showing a strong chance of going higher, but the expected change is rather small. Our Market Structure level remains in the lower range of positive. Anticipatory trend is also positive. If the market climbs on Friday there is a good chance of more upside on Monday. Overall there is a greater than even chance for the market to climb a bit higher by year end. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 2, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. Early gains in the NDX slipped into a loss midway through the session following Yellen's comments on raising rates and oil's steady decline. The other indexes fell from the start. All indexes continued lower after a mass shooting by one or more demented shooters in San Bernardino, Ca.. Volatility remains low so declines should be short in duration. Our T-Index has moved from extreme deflationary to highly deflationary, a small improvement. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: December 1, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is100% Money market. We expanded our exposure but our Volatility program remains in the money market another day as it uses different criteria for it positions. Probabilities look strong, but the NDX closed on its high which means the market may be overly enthusiastic. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 30, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program 100% Money market. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is100% Money market. The market is not just a market of stocks, it is also a market of buyers and sellers that constantly change each day. The core are professionals that have a more stable strategy while the fringes are affected by day to day hype and prior lone term direction. Our job is not easy with this changing configuration. We must get in prior to their trades and get out before they change their mind. It is a matter of staying slightly ahead of the herd, so that the herd will move the market in the direction that we have already aligned ourselves for. It gets easier to do as the volatility gets larger. For now our position is some what split with our most aggressive programs in the money market and the rest long. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 27, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. Holiday weeks generally bring about little change, and little change usually brings higher prices, but the week was mostly flat. We managed a small profit by being in the money market the first two days of the week as it declined. Staying out of the fray during when the path is not clear has made good sense for us. On Friday our Market Structure level climbed, good for the longer term, but bad for the next day and we moved back into the money market. The threat of radicals throughout the world generally would raise the volatility as the market does not like unknowns. It could however cause traders to leave the markets, reducing volume and that would have the opposite effect. We will have to see how it plays out. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 25, 2015

Comments: November 24, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The downing of the Russian Jet pushed up oil prices and could cause grief for the markets depending upon what comes next. Relationships are very complex in the Middle East, friends and enemies are not fixed. The stock market however remains calm....for now, and calm markets tend to go higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 23, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. Small drop on Monday did not change our signal. The Market Structure level continued to move higher a second day This is a positive sign for later in the week. We will wait another day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 20, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. This was a very good week overall, bringing the NDX up to less than 1% from its closing all time high. On Friday our Market Structure climbed which should insure additional market gains over the coming weeks. I will make the case for the NDX to reach its previous intra day high set over 15 years ago, (so much for buy and hold). That value is 4816.35 set on March 24, 2000. With Thanksgiving week coming up it should be noted that since 1993 the NDX has gone higher 17 of 22 times on the day prior to Thanksgiving, for an average gain of 0.6%, and on the day after Thanksgiving it has gone higher 15 of 22 times with an average gain of .6%. A trade for the three day span would have been correct 19 of 22 times with an average gain of 1.2%. Pretty good odds. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 19, 2015

Comments: November 18, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Large market jump on Wednesday has pushed our Hot money program to up over +50% ytd. This was done with approximately the same overall market exposure as the NDX. Hot money has moved back into the money market for Thursday. Wednesday's large jump will improve the volatility that has been shrinking. Our Market Structure level held at the top of the transition level so the long term uptrend is still in play (for now). Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 17, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. Unchanged market, unchanged signal. What did change was our Market structure level, which fell to the top of the transition area. With the current volatility level as low as it is, it will not matter to the markets where the Structure level is, as the general direction of the market would remain slightly positive. But a moderate to high level of volatility and negative Market Structure level would be bad news for the market, neither of these conditions exist at the present time. Tuesday's early rally was squashed under the 2% drop in oil prices. Early after-market ndx direction is positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 16, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. With the exception of our volatility based program all programs are fully long. The Paris tragedy may have put a floor under oil prices and energy jumped much higher bringing the rest of the market along. Looking at our Market Structure level we find that it has fallen to one step above the transition zone. This represents a warning, as once the level hits the transition zone it can quickly fall through it into negative territory and that could happen in just a couple of days. The plus side is that more often than not the Market Structure level merely bounces off the transition level and works its way higher. Currently the volatility remains very low supporting the bounce scenario. I reviewed the most recent major European and American terrorist attacks to look for changes in the stock market for a five day period prior to the event. 911, Sept 11, 2001 NDX fell 7% in prior 5 days. Truck bomb WTC 2/23/93 NDX fell 5.8% over five days prior. Madrid train bombing Mar, 11 2004 NDX fell 3.3% over five days prior. Paris attack November 13, 2015 NDX fell 4.3% over five days prior. I expect that the Transports would have fared worse but I have not done the research. Considering how difficult it is to move the markets these are very interesting "coincidences". Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 13, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. Ugh! All our programs got caught in the week's down turn but overall were 31% less affected than the NDX since they were less exposed. We continued to reduced our exposure for Monday. This market drop was more of a stealth drop, due to the small daily changes (not counting Friday). Generally this leads to a rally and not a continued fall. I expect that the coming week will have a good recovery, though Mondays often follow Friday's direction. The good news about Friday is that the larger change should help increase the volatility making for improved market readings. The current problems of oil prices dropping and threat of Fed raising interest rates should not damage anything except the energy stocks. We have been living with all this for a long time. The drop in oil prices is most helpful to those at the lowest end of the economic scale and those are the people who will spend everything that they save from the reduced energy costs. That is a good thing. The decline in energy prices does reflect a reduction in the size and health of the economy and that is a bad thing. The stock market looks months ahead of the economy and it is not yet ringing the doom bell. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 12, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. We reduced our overall exposure again as our new Volatility focused program moved fully to the money market. The Vix, a substitute for volatility, is growing but the actual recent daily changes, which is another measure of volatility, remain very low. Low volatility makes daily forecasting more difficult as the normal "noise level" of the market can overrun our signals, but low volatility has other benefits since that type of market is more likely to go higher on its own and the down side is generally limited. We are experiencing a low volatility market this week as it quietly pulls back. This recent action appears to be a small pull back in an overall uptrend ( Market Structure level is positive and volatility remains low.). Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 11, 2015

Comments: November 10, 2015

Comments: November 9, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. I left early Friday and did not post the forecast (see below). We were in the Money market during Monday's fall as all programs were on the sidelines. For Tuesday the Volatility program has gone fully long. The recent volatility has dried up and even Monday's drop closed down only 1.1%. This shows a lack of fear in the markets and any small pull back should be countered with buying. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 6, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. We continued holding in money market as the outlook remains cloudy. Today's good job numbers could encourage the Fed to raise interest rates which are so low it won't matter, however the market finally did respond with jumps in both the 90 day T bill and 10 year note rates. Volatility continues to fall meaning both less risk for the market and less potential return, as the daily changes get smaller. This should get better going into next year with some election excitement. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 5, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. Early gains turned into a negative day for the NDX sending our programs lower, still the last ten weeks have been exceptional for all of our programs, doing very well even as the volatility slipped. No clear picture for Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: November 4, 2015

Comments: November 3, 2015

Comments: November 2, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. The NDX hit 4707.77 on Monday just a few points away from the 4712 top I was looking for in my September long term forecast. The market remains very strong and has pushed our Market Structure Level to one step from the top. This indicates to me that there will continue to be market support as the Level falls back towards the zero line. Based on that and the current volatility there should be another 2.5% left in the NDX prior to the end of the year so we could be looking at 4821. These are rough numbers but it is nice to be able to have some sort of expectation as we look to the future. Corporations continue to fail on sales and have been in a sales decline for the past three quarters, the country remains in a deflationary mode regardless of what the Fed is saying and how well corporate profits are climbing. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 30, 2015

Current position for Monday: Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All others 100% money market. Although Monday often follows Friday's direction the probabilities look strong for Monday to the up-side. I expect more upside this coming week as the Market Structure is in the high positive range which means there is more room for the market to climb. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 29, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. Thursday was a slightly negative day. We moved back into the money market ending the week early for our clients with a total small gain across the board. Good chance that we shall see more upside in the markets next week. I think we can expect to see the markets continue to climb for the next month as our Market Structure remains long and the volatility remains below the scary level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 28, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. New Volatility focused program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The market chattered between positive and negative prior to breaking out to the upside. The RUT jumped almost 3% a big showing for that sluggish index. We had a strong "short" signal near the close which became wobbly when we placed our trades so I maintained the short but reduced the negative exposure. The anticipatory trend is flat, but clearly the market has exhibited much strength as it has climbed for the past five days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 27, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. Most indexes fell on Tuesday but the NDX had a small gain. Apple earnings beat on both top and bottom lines sending the aftermarket higher and that should boost the NDX. Apple's first quarter projections were not as uplifting so there may be a sell off after the initial euphoria. Our Market Structure level remains positive and Volatility is better than it was for the past few years but is still less than normal. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 26, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. The NDX managed to squeeze out a bit more upside on Monday even as AAPL was sent down about -3.2%. The market is overstretched on the long side but a day or two of flat to down should prepare it for another run higher. Our signal turned flat for all programs so we reduce our risk by being in the money market when there is less chance for a profit. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 25, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We continue to hold firm on our long position. The ndx jumped 4.8% over the past two days and pulled back just enough at the close to suggest that there might be enough room left for another gain on Monday. This was our best week this year and it sent our hot money program up over 47% year to date. We did this with over 20% less market exposure than the NDX and that means less risk as risk is directly related to market exposure. On the flip side we have our most conservative program with only a 34% total market exposure this year, up 17.5% year to date (gains not adjusted for fees). This coming week Apple reports on Tuesday and it is sure to have an impact on the NDX as it is the largest component factor in the NDX index. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 22, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We remain fully long for Friday. Our program likes what it saw in Thursday's 2% jump in the NDX and we are holding on another day. Comfortable holding on especially after Amazon and Google jumped over 10% in the aftermarket on excellent earnings sending the NDX Futures up another 1.5%. This unexpected development should keep this week on track for a very large gain. Please note yesterday we said we were fully long but mistyped our position in the Volatility focused program it should have read 100% not 75%. It is corrected now. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 21, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100%*(corrected) Rydex NDX 2x fund. We are fully long for Thursday after being under exposed all of this week. The NDX has dropped each of the past two days as volatility remains low. This is earnings season and some big surprises could have a strong influence on the next day's trading but it does not look like much happened on Wednesday after the close. You might look at "hog" Harley Davidson Inc stock to use as a very early warning signal for the markets. Expensive motorcycles are often purchased with discretionary income and investors are more ready to sell these stocks early. Harley stock started falling at the end of 2006 a full year before the market itself. This time Harley stock topped out in mid-2014....So if it is any indication.... Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 20, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The volatility continues to decrease. This puts us on a slower road to riches. There is less to gain as the daily changes are less. Our trades, in all but our velocity focused program, also will become fewer because we do not trade when we don't have a clear signal. Still with the Fed talking interest rates, the Middle East in turmoil and a presidential election in 2016 (volatility goes up during presidential election years) the volatility should edge back up over the next few months. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 19, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. With the volatility drifting into our "no-short" zone and the t-bills holding steady it looks like we have gone back to a "positive stealth" mode where the market just goes higher, not because of good news, but because of lack of fear. This positive note is reflected in the NDX where companies are more adaptable to changing conditions due to the large influence of forward looking technology companies. Still it is a statistics game where low volatility generally means small changes so leverage can be applied in the direction of the trend, even though the single day outcome may not be that certain. The Market Structure level remains a few steps from the top and holding. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 16, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. The late rally on Friday improved the chances for Monday's market to go higher but did not change our Money market signals. The improved volatility over the past two months has been very good for us, as all our programs are at new all time highs and show double digit gains this year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 15, 2015

Current position for Friday: Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All others 100% money market. Thursday showed good strength and adds to the volatility. We reduced our exposure by moving into the money market with three of our programs. Good chance for this rally to continue next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 14, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. It looks like the biotech investors were relieved that the democratic debate did not hammer on their companies. As biotech stocks improved. The main street retailers did get hammered and the indexes went somewhat lower. From what I can see the market is consolidating at this level, digesting recent gains and setting up to make another run higher. If you look at the charts they do look more like the market has peaked at this level and would turn lower. I prefer to use our Market Structure level and volatility as a guide, but only trade the daily signals. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 13,, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: New Volatility program Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x program. All other programs 100% Money market. The Biotech index continues to behave poorly dropping over 3% on Tuesday, while the tech stocks were mostly mixed. We have left the long side after an eleven day run, a rather long stay for our programs. Our signals became more negative at the close, pushing down our probabilities, but the recent lower volatility should hold any downside to the moderate range. The early aftermarket is only slightly lower. I do not expect another down turn to start here as our Market Structure Level remains high and volatility is only moderate. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 12, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The volatility seems to have collapsed as the greatest daily change in the NDX over the past 5 trading days did not surpass 0.62%. Can't make much money if there is little to be had, but the low volatility is good for the market's overall direction. Along with this, the Market Structure level has climbed to strong positive levels. Combined they should put the market in a position where the indices crawl higher for a few weeks with only minimal down side risk. We continue to hold our, reduced exposure, long positions. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 9, 2015

Comments: October 8, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. The tech traders positioned themselves for bad news from Janet Yellen but did not get it. The market turned around and closed higher. But, seeing the five major ndx stocks that I watch (aapl, amzn, fb, goog and nflx), move down by almost 2% "each" let me know how quickly this market might turn lower. Especially when you add in the bio techs, which did close lower on the day. We reduced our market exposure for Friday and Friday may be difficult, as the market had a good run this week, our Market Structure level gained a step and our anticipatory trend is flat. Never-the-less the Yellen results may calm the markets for another day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 7, 2015

Comments: October 6, 2015

Comments: October 5, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Sorry to have missed yesterday's posting. It is shown below. For Tuesday we moved our conservative positions into the money market and held our others in place. The market has staged a substantial rally over the past 5 days in line with our call of a bottom. Monday's strong showing has helped bring our most conservative program up over 10% year to date a very special accomplishment for a program that is exposed to the market only 30% as much as the NDX. The rally should continue (with a few back and fill days) for the near term. The volatility has only diminished slightly and the structure level remains positive which should be helpful for a continued market climb. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 2, 2015....Late Posting

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We moved back into the Long/money market and Retirement programs for Monday. It was a very good week for us with our primary program closing up over 20% ytd. With our Hot money program up almost +30%. The increased volatility has been very beneficial, even though it is only running at a normal rate. The Fed will most likely have to postpone or just force a rate hike by year end since the underlying conditions remain deflationary. Really what is needed for this economy to pick up is to eliminate taxes including "fica" for the lowest earners. Those poor folks would spend every penny not given to the government and it would jump start the economy. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: October 1, 2015

Comments: September 30, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Big up-day on Wednesday but it did not erase the plunge earlier in the week. We reduced our exposure in our Primary and Hot money programs but by the close the indicatory were very flat telling us the forecast is leaning more towards neutral. It seems possible that there may be a few days of pause in here with a continuation of the run-up next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 29, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. I consider Tuesday's market a test of the late August lows. Our bottom signal called a bottom today and if nothing else it is saying that the market is very much oversold and often rebounds from these levels. Our Anticipatory trend is long and our Market Structure level remains in positive territory. There should be a rebound here on Wednesday or Thursday. We have reduced our exposure a bit on our volatility focused program but all others remain fully long. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 28, 2015

Comments: September 26, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. The Biotech index is down 22.5% and it could drop another 30% from here before it is over. With the presidential elections a little over a year away we should see a steady bombardment of the inflationary health care industry with the biotechs leading the way down. The IBB lost almost 5% Friday dragging the NDX lower. The Biotechs will be a drain on the market going forward. This is not a one off event. They are a bright target and will get a bad (and probably well deserved) beating. Health care should not be sport for profit gouging. It is best left for the cocktail club crowd where they can discuss how much they spent on their Range Rover or Berluti loafers. For Monday we stepped away from the fray in all our programs. The NDX has turned negative for the year and its recovery will in part depend on how badly the biotech's get bashed. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 24, 2015

Comments: September 23, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. With three very small daily changes out of the past five, the market's "real" volatility is rapidly falling. While the VIX (a proxy for volatility) remains heightened and is only slowly slipping. This helps support the upward market direction, but makes the climb slower and less fruitful. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 22, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. In a capitalistic society not everything is or should be left to private industry. Those important products or services that are necessary to the health and well being of its citizens are run or overseen by the government. This includes police, fire, schools, power and roads. Would we want to see the distribution and operation of traffic lights be controlled by the council of body and fender shops? Unfortunately that is what we seem to have with the pharmaceutical companies. This was recently highlighted by a single immature CEO who raised the price of a necessary drug by 5,000%. But maybe he should be congratulated, as his action brought the problem into the headlights. His actions will have consequences for the whole pharmaceutical industry and will most likely lead to price caps, especially for any drug that does not have alternatives. In the extreme, and with enough bad publicity, it could lead to calls for drug companies to be annexed by the government for the good of the population. The medical industry is essential to the well being of the population, and with the history of inflation in hospitalization and insurance costs the call for annexation of the drug companies would just be a start.

As far as what happened to the market today, I was clearly on the wrong side of it. No earth shaking news overnight, just a continuation of lower commodity prices reinforcing the idea that the world economy is no longer growing. The oil and gas index peaked in June of 2014 while the prices of many industrial metals have had a five year decline. This is good for the population because of lower prices but not good for the markets as it is another proof of deflation and that generally leads to recessions. For Wednesday we have reduced our exposure in our most aggressive programs but remain long.

Comments: September 21, 2015

Comments: September 18, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. Friday's increase in volatility should be helpful. The Market Structure level is now about midway in the positive area. Once the level nears the top of the positive area it provides the market with strong potential for the next rally, but during the climb we would expect to see little progress. The level of volatility tells us what to expect regarding the size of the market move. Currently the volatility is in a historically average area. This is better for trading than the dull low volatility we have experienced over the past few years, but not yet dangerous for the buy and hold crowd. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 17, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. A lot of internal volatility in Thursday's market that went nowhere by the end. I expressed concern yesterday that the Fed actions would calm investors and lead to lower volatility and that, it appears at least for Thursday, was the end result. I have reduced our overall market exposure by moving two of our programs into the money market. The Fed chose to hold steady and not raise rates. A quick peak at our T-index would show that the economy is firmly in a deflationary mode, it has been in that mode since September of 2008. There is no inflation to fight. There is inflation in some areas like medicine, insurance and real estate, but it is not pervasive throughout the economy and a rate rise could do more harm than good. It would be better to target the out of control areas using other tools. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 16, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Our signal is long across the board, but not very strong. There is concern about investor reaction to the Fed's actions. A larger concern of mine is the recent slow drop off in volatility and the Market Structure level holding firm but being barely positive. In addition it may happen that the Fed raises a small amount and investors respond with a small change, satisfied that all is well, leading to a resumption of low volatility trading. New longer term projection called New Direction was posted Sunday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 15, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. The higher volatility continues to help our ytd results. Our Sept 13 comments said our retirement program was up 9.1% it should have read 8.5% and has been corrected. Fed announcement should come on Thursday but should be a non issue. Our Market Structure level remains positive but is holding only one step above the transition level and volatility remains high but trailing off. New longer term projection called New Direction was posted Sunday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 14, 2015

Comments: September 13, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We reduced our exposure on the Primary and Hot Money programs but stayed long. The Market Structure level remains positive and the increased volatility should allow us to stay mostly in sync with the market's daily changes in direction. The past two weeks have shown a large increase in volatility and that resulted in large gains for our clients. High volatility makes the market easier for us to read as is separates the signal from the noise. Even our very conservative retirement program is up 8.5% ytd and it has only about a 30% market exposure overall. Risk is directly related to exposure. I have posted a new longer term projection called New Direction today. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 10, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All signals are now positive and strong. Our Market Structure level has turned fully positive and along with the higher volatility should push the Markets back up to test 2015 highs, but not without some scary moments. I will post a new longer term projection this weekend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 9, 2015

Comments: September 8, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is 100% Money market. Long/money market program is 37.5% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex NDX 1x Fund. New Volatility focused program is Short: 25% Inverse NDX 2x fund. We have conflicting signals between our programs and I have reduced our exposures on all. Tuesday had a very strong rally keeping the volatility high. Our Market Structure level climbed but remained in the transition area. Unless the level slips back negative any market pullback should be very temporary. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 4, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. Great week for our programs as we showed strong gains every day this past week. The increased volatility is a big help to us. Our volatility focused program is now up 1.2% since its start date in June compared to the NDX which has lost (5.6%) over the same time frame. Our Hot Money program is up 23.4% ytd. The Market Structure level is in the transition zone and climbing, my expectation is that it will go fully positive this coming week. The market could most likely suffer during this process with a recovery the following week. Our probabilities for Tuesday look flat, but the potential amplitudes appear large and with the recent volatility a substantial move in either direction is not out of the question. There could also be a negative ripple effect from the week of down days that started August 18th. The move to the upside, once the positive structure settles in, should be sizeable, as it should continue to be influenced by the higher recent volatility. I am postponing the posting of a new long term forecast until the Market Structure level makes its way through the transition zone, still a few days away.. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 3, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund. New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Inverse NDX 2x fund. We have a strong "short" signal for Friday, but what is most important is that our Market Structure Level has moved up to Neutral. This is the bottom of the transition zone and there is a 95% chance that it will quickly move through this zone and into positive territory. Once in the positive range the down days are both smaller in amplitude and fewer in frequency and the markets will once again head higher. If this plays out the way it appears, the bulk of the down side should be over within the next seven days. The transition zone is, however, more dangerous, and the down side can be quite violent. A new long term forecast will be posted by Monday when things should be more clear. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 2, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short:37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Short: 37.5% Inverse NDX 2x fund. Strong rebound Wednesday especially at the close. Perhaps too strong at the close, as the rush to buy may be premature. We have a neutral to negative signal so I don't expect this rally to carry very far and we moved partially short. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast posted August 25th, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: September 1, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Long/money market program Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The high volatility raises our signal above the noise making it easier to read. This gives us better reliability. Higher volatility also makes the market more dangerous on a single day basis when influenced by outside forces. After staying out of the market for the past 9 trading days our long/money market program has taken a long position. This could signal a short pause in the downtrend. Volatility remains high and our Market Structure level has slipped back into more negative territory telling me the long term trend is down. We have also not received a bottom signal so this down trend remains intact. It should continue to step lower, recover some and then go down some more. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast posted August 25th, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 31, 2015

Comments: August 28, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Inverse NDX 2x fund. After spending almost all day in negative territory the Nasdaq 100 rallied at the close to show a gain of 0.1%. Still volatility remains high and the market is vulnerable to another leg down. Our probabilities are very negative for Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast posted August 25th, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 27, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Inverse NDX 2x fund. The market roared for a second day with the NDX gaining about 2.5%. After a week of sitting in the money market and avoiding the wild market swings in both directions our signal has finally kicked in. Our Market Structure level held at one level below the transition zone and the market volatility is now above the 20 year average. Each trade we make is based on choosing the direction with the most favorable historical statistics providing a balance between possible gain and low risk. Overall the new long term direction seems to be down. I have posted an update to our long term forecast please read it and re-read the one I posted on June 18. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 26, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. Wednesday's strong positive move has turned the NDX up for this week. The down side is, the large move increased the average running volatility, continuing the negative pressure on the market. Our Market Structure level had been climbing for the past six days and we are now just one step from moving into the positive area. However there is a better chance that it will not occur, and the level will move back lower. I have posted an update to our long term forecast please read it and re-read the one I posted on June 18. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 25, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. We have not just moved to the sidelines because of the drop, we are getting money market signals from all of our programs. I expect that we shall get a long signal this week, and a number of down signals to follow but not just yet. Our Market Structure remains negative and volatility pushes towards very dangerous levels, but it has already put us into a negative long term mode. I have posted an update to our long term forecast please read it and re-read the one I posted on June 18. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 24, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. Wow! . From last Wednesday's close to Monday's opening low the NDX fell over 16%. That looks more like a crash than a correction. Our signal remains for the Money market, and under these conditions it looks smart. The aftermarket is showing a recovery of over 1% in the NDX, but the Shanghai index has fallen more than 4% and oil remains under $39. With the volatility now much higher, and our bottom indicator still not reading a bottom and our Market Structure level holding negative I expect more downside to come, and most of it should be tradable and not just a shock wave as we have just seen. After a brief bump the market should continue working its way lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 21, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. Big down day with the NDX off 4%. By the close all the major indexes were down for 2015. This big daily change has moved the volatility up, and combined with the already negative Market Structure level tells us that we should expect the new longer term market direction to be leaning negative. This could easily change since the strong increase in volatility has just been a few days and it could easily move back to its slow moving self. Our bottom index should show a bottom on Monday. So a recovery from this 4 day 8.3% drop in the NDX most likely will be attempted next week. Our probabilities are leaning higher for Monday and the NDX closed again on the low of the day, the second time in two days. We do not have a strong signal either way and all programs are safe in the money market. All our programs are doing very well with the exception of our newest two month old volatility based program which is still trying to find its legs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 20, 2015

Current position for Friday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Big drop, especially in the NDX which closed on the low of the day (a positive sign indicating panic selling). Going into Friday with the uncertainty of the weekend should be interesting. The early trading in the aftermarket finds the QLD down (almost) another 1%. But that is expected during the panic period after the close. It will most likely blow over. The broad picture shows that overall volatility remains low enough to be supportive of the market and not yet in the scary range. Our Market Structure level is negative but without higher volatility it is not a danger sign. And the anticipatory trend remains negative, not good short term. On the plus side the market had its third down day in a row which could trigger some buying. Today's large stumble adds to the volatility going forward but I need to see more large daily moves to believe the market has changed direction from a slight up trend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 19, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is Short 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money Market. The Fed seems intent on raising interest rates this year and they might as well since the QE's have done nothing but put money into the pockets of the multinational corporations while the real US economy has stagnated. However, the interest rates themselves are not announcing that raise, as normally the rates would be going higher in anticipation. For tomorrow we have a climbing Market Structure level which should help the down side forecast, along with a negative anticipatory trend, high enough volatility to support the down side and very negative probability numbers. The projected down side amplitudes remain low. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 18, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. Probabilities are getting weaker and our Volatility program has moved to the money market. Other than that volatility remains low, our anticipatory trend remains long and our Market Structure level moved further negative. China's Shanghai index fell over 6% prior to the market open yesterday and that set the tone for a down day. Still, so far, the early part of the week remains positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 17, 2015

Comments: August 14, 2015

Comments: August 13, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. The signal is leaning lower for Friday, but the overall volatility remains low enough to help the buyers hold the market up. So we move to the safety of the money market. Overall Market Structure level is negative but climbing. Anticipatory trend is negative and low volatility is the positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 12, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Wednesday took us on a wild ride with the indexes sharply lower in the morning and recovered and positive in the afternoon. China added another 2% to their day-earlier 2% devaluation of the Yuan. You most likely won't believe it when I say that this is good for America. It is good for our local economies. It means lower fuel costs and lower costs for all raw materials, wood etc. This will put more money into the hands of those that need it most and spend the most of what they earn, so there is more money to spend on everything. Raising our standard of living. This is good for those corporations that sell mainly into the US. It is not the best for multinationals that do most of their business overseas. Remember if you like a weak dollar consider what happens to countries with a weak currency. It usually is the end result of runaway inflation. I sure don't want it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 11, 2015

Comments: August 10, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. Early after Monday's close the aftermarket was positive. We remain on the sidelines. The market staged a sharp recovery after a number of down-days last week. Still our anticipatory trend shows more down and our Market Structure level is negative. As I have been saying for a while, the low volatility is keeping the market afloat as there is little fear and therefore little reason to sell until we see some more volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 7, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. We are seeing a pull back under low volatility conditions. This type of market condition generally improves as the low volatility shows no need for alarm. As the volatility increases so does fear and the chance of a more negative market path; but so far none of that has happened. The markets remain about 3.5% away from the top. Next week should provide some buying opportunities although this weakness may continue early in the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 6, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. Thursday's drop in the NDX was a large drop relative to the low volatility we have recently seen and caught our new volatility program by surprise, the rest of our programs were in the money market. We have all our programs in the money market for Friday. The market is unlikely to move into a sustained downtrend until the volatility picks up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 5, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The NDX gave up about half its gain from earlier in the day. Although there is a lot of talk about the Fed raising interest rates, the talk has not translated into any disruption in prices outside of the bond market, and even there it has not been reflected in strong pricing action. So maybe its more bla, bla, bla, later, later. I would expect to see it show as an increase of volatility, but that is not happening. The short term volatility level is actually drifting lower and is now too low to support any short action so we should assume that the primary market direction remains to the up side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: August 4, 2015

Comments: August 3, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: New Volatility focused program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Volatility has once again fallen into the dull zone. This should help to markets stay afloat and it has kicked our Volatility focused back to the long side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 31, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Our Primary and Hot Money programs received a half hearted "long" signal for Monday. Mondays tend to follow Friday's direction so we may not see very much movement. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 29, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. The markets climbed after the Fed made no changes in policy. The 90 day T-Bill rate has climbed from the .001 level to the .045 level over the past two weeks, but both the 90 day rate and the 10 year rate are lower now than they were in March of 2014. With commodity prices on a downward slide the world wide recovery from 2008 looks like. YELP was in the news and it's image problems along with cost control problems have caused the stock to lose 75% of its value over the past year and a half. Wednesday it lost 25%. The YELP concept is good, and people do use it to find local services, but it needs to do more for credibility. On the plus side they have already built the system, logged the merchants and from here it is mostly a matter of maintaining, so expensed should level off. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 28, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hopefully we will not run into another major bad news item for Wednesday like Monday's China market plunge. Our signals are strong and positive. The Market Structure level continues to go lower as it stays in its negative range. The volatility remains low enough to support the market's return to an up-trend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 27, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. China's market had a steep 8.5% decline Sunday night causing all markets on Monday to take shelter. This sent the US markets lower on Monday. With a five day drop in the S&P and NDX a pop is more likely than a fall on the next day. But there are other factors to consider and over the past 22 years even with five days down a drop rather than a pop was more likely when going into a Tuesday. China's Shanghai index had great gains all of last year and early this year then turned in June. What is significant is the size of the daily moves. I expect this pull back to cause our own markets to act more erratically, increasing our volatility and eventually sending our markets lower, though a one day drop is insignificant in itself. China's drop alongside the long term decline in most commodity prices is telling us the world economy is slowing down, and since the US had not (up until now) made much of an attempt to put a greater share of the wealth into the pockets of the lower and middle classes where can we expect to find the population's spending power to boost the earnings of US corporations? Our current volatility continues to remain low, which for the time being will help keep US markets steady on their upward climb, but that could change quickly. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 24, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Amazon accounts for almost 5% of the price movement in the NDX but its 9.8% gain was not enough to drive the NDX higher, leaving the index with a four day string of down-days. We reversed our positions for Monday and are now long. Mondays do not have a strong history to the upside, but the four day decline should help that. Our Market Structure level took two steps back down and volatility remains low, keeping the NDX mostly locked in a tight range for three months. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 23, 2015

Comments: July 22, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market. New Volatility focused program is Short: 75 % Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Our Market Structure level has moved within one step from the transition area between positive and negative. Though still negative it means that things could change rapidly to the upside giving more life to the NDX and the overall markets, but we will have to wait to see how it unfolds. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 21, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. The tech drive is over. Apple's earnings beat was not as spectacular as some of their previous gains and it cost the stock 7% in the aftermarket, following a 1% loss in the regular session. This will kick down the NDX and hurt the other already weaker indexes. We should see some more tech money leave the playground. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 20, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. I expect another two days of this tech drive. Apple should report after the close on Tuesday and given the recent Goog-Nflx run we should expect to see some more out of Apple. Meanwhile our Market Structure level is negative but moving towards neutral. Volatility remains low market direction remains positive but labored. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 17, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. Google drove the NDX higher even as most other indexes went negative. This was a big week for the NDX as both Netflix and Google combined to put the NDX into recent record territory. Our Market Structure level has improved but is still negative. Volatility is improving and remains below any dangerous level. Interest rates remain low. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 16, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market. New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We have a mixed signal for Friday. Tech earnings continue to come in strong and today Google popped in the aftermarket sending the pre market trading higher in the NDX futures. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 15, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. Very flat probabilities for Thursday. Netflix jumped 10% in the aftermarket on some good numbers and brought the NDX with it. So it looks like the markets will have another early boost. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 14, 2015

Comments: July 13, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1X fund. New Volatility focused program is Short: 75% Rydex inverse NDX 2x fund. We had not gone short since Mid May, but the volatility has now kicked up sufficiently to support the short side. Our Market Structure level remains negative and our signals are all negative including our anticipatory trend. As we all know using a statistical approach to the market does make money long term, but for any individual day either side of the probabilities could take hold due to unexpected factors like the news. I expect that if Tuesday does not deliver to the down side Wednesday should, still we need to rely on our total signal as we move along day by day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 10, 2015

Comments: July 9, 2015

Comments: July 8, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Two days ago I mentioned that the Chinese market problem was in the background, today it moved into the foreground as overnight the Shanghai index fell nearly another 6%. Still with that index down more than 32% from the peak it remains up for the year. So I would say at this point it is just a medium correction. Most likely we will see more to come. Today's drop has kicked the volatility up to a level where it can unnerve investors. With our market Structure Level already negative and a continuation of larger size daily moves, the most likely intermediate term direction will to shift to the down side. The S&P has turned down slightly for the year while the NDX remains up more than 2.5% ytd. Volatility will be the key over the following weeks, more large daily changes up or down will not be good for the markets. On the other hand our programs like to see a higher level of volatility as it makes the markets easier for us to read. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 7, 2015

Comments: July 6, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The Greek drama continues. Perhaps the "no" vote will allow Greece to leave the Euro, devalue the new currency, and rebuild, but little chance of success without some sort of stronger government to collect taxes. The US markets managed to close without too much damage. What is lurking in the back ground for the US is the 30% drop in the Chinese stock market over the past few months. They were a precursor to the US decline in 2008. Still, looking at our markets, the current daily moves are small enough to expect more higher highs, though it may take a few weeks for another rally to reach those levels. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 2, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. . Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. I do not have strong upside expectations for next week after the first day or two as our Market Structure is near the bottom level and that usually drains the market from having any strong rally. On the positive side volatility remains relatively low, which should keep the market from slipping very far. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: July 1, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Potential still exists for another sharp drop, but probabilities are leaning a bit more to the upside. Markets will be closed on Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 30, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. . Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. We increased our exposure in our Primary and Hot money programs. Volatility remains low but has climbed to a level where it can support our sell signals if they happen. Market Structure level has fallen closer to the bottom. The markets focus on Greece should level off soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 29, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. . Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Money market. Very poor market day brought on by the Greek problem. Greece should not have any real effect upon the US economy and therefore no real long term effect, but there is short term fear and panic anyway. A continuation of large daily movements could lead to real problems, but for now I will assume that Monday was an isolated case as overall volatility remains low. Our new Volatility focused program took a large hit after seeing some large gains over the past two weeks. This program will have larger moves in both directions but should shine over the longer term. The rapid euphoria/despair cycle from the Greek problem adds randomness to the market, but should not last too long. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 26, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is 100% Money market. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is 100% Long Rydex NDX 2x fund. We added our conservative programs to the long side for Monday. The NDX has now gone lower for three consecutive days. And the anticipatory trend is positive. Positives, but Monday tends to be a poor performer. After the close Greek rulers had a tantrum and sent the aftermarket into a tail spin. Not the best news for Monday's opening and with Monday seeming to like the downside I would not expect much of a recovery. New longer-term forecast posted last week and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Use link at left. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 25, 2015

Current position for Friday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Another low volatility day. Our new program has moved fully long after being on the sidelines all week. Greece continues to cause the market jitters but the price movements are small for the most part. New longer-term forecast posted last week and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Use link at left. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 24, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. Our Market Structure level has climbed about half way from its bottom, but still remains well below positive. Volatility remains very low and the overall market direction remains positive. New longer-term forecast posted last week and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Use link at left. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 23, 2015

Comments: June 22, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Markets had a reasonably good day in the wake of some volatile foreign price movements: Shanghai composite -6.85%, Dax and Cac 40 up 3.81%. We are waiting another day. New longer-term forecast posted last week and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Use link at left. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 19, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Looks like the mild one day decline might extend into Monday. Good news for our "Conservative Retirement" program clients with less than $78,000 invested we have dropped our minimum rates to $10 per week ($130 per quarter) from $15 per week ($195 per quarter). The fee on accounts over $52,000 remain at 1% per year. For our new Volatility focused program our fees will be 1.5% per year with a minimum of $195 per quarter. Current market remains in a tight upward sloping channel. New longer-term forecast posted yesterday and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Use link at left. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 18, 2015

Current position for Friday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We have held our positions going into Friday. Our new, fully leveraged Volatility focused program, is now up over 5% from inception and in less than two weeks. The program is designed to take advantage of the more random, but also more consistently positive, nature of low volatility conditions. It will not be a straight path higher, but hopefully it will be a faster path. The program is off to a good start. I posted a new longer-term forecast today and that should help explain some current and near future market behavior. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 17, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The underlying market force remains positive due to the low volatility that we are experiencing, however we should expect the near term to continue to be rough, as our Market Structure level remains low, providing pressure to smother any advance. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 16, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. New Volatility focused program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We now have all our programs aimed up with a somewhat reduced exposure on our Primary and Hot Money segments. Not worried about Greece and not worried about the FED. T bills are near zero and the ten year notes are slightly below their average for the the past two and a half years. Volatility is less than half the average for the past 22 years. This market should hold up until there is more upside change to bonds or volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 15, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We can see that the new Volatility focused program is on its own track having moved out of the market as our primary program moved into it. We do not have a unified signal and therefore our exposure is light. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 12, 2015

Current position for Monday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The market continues on its low volatility path. Greece should not be a problem since their economy is very small. T bills have held steady and near zero. Nothing seems to be significant enough to move the markets much lower. At most the occasional ripple will occur. Any significant move lower should be announced by sharp increases in volatility. We will continue to move into the money market when we see potential for that type of activity, but low volatility does not warrant shorting. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 11, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Our new volatility program had a nice first week with a 2.6% gain. Volatility continues to be very low keeping the short side off the table while other forces are at work dulling the attempts at new highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 10, 2015

Current position for Thursday: New Volatility focused Program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Relatively large up day in this low volatility market. With the Market Structure level stalled at the low point we would expect difficulty going forward, but continued low volatility may clear the way for new highs, most likely though it may just be more sideways action in a tight range. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 9, 2015

Comments: June 8, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. New Volatility focused program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We launched our new Volatility focused program today. As you can see it has gone fully long where our other programs have either reduced market exposure or are fully in the Money market. This new program will behave differently from our other group of programs under low volatility conditions. Click on Our investment programs on the left side of our screen for a full description. The NDX has shed about 2.5% over the past eight days in mostly small steps, while the S&P has lost about 2%. Our Market Structure Level has fallen to its lowest level today and will, over the next few days fight its way higher. This is not a positive for the short term market but will eventually lead to more opportunities on the upside. The overall volatility remains low. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 5, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We halved our exposure on our aggressive programs. We were unable to launce our new program this week as Guggenheim had not yet received our check. I am the first and longest term investor in all our programs. Hopefully they will have it by Monday. The market volatility remains low and although the S&P has not made much progress the past few months it is less than 2% from its highs. Our Market Structure Level is now nearly at is lowest point and that generally means that there will be more down days than up-days coming in the near future. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 4, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We are holding our fully long position another day. Fridays have the added negative of "fear of what the weekend will bring", but we continue to have a strong signal and volatility remains low. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 3, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Once again we moved fully long. The markets have temporarily shrugged off the bad news regarding lowered first quarter GDP estimates and sit close to their highs. The S&P could easily make an all time high on Thursday by moving less than 1%. The NDX still has a ways to go and it's been fifteen years since it reached its high. Interest rates have climbed but remain low along with volatility. The combination of low interest and low volatility can help hold the market up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 2, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 66.6% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We reduced our exposure in our aggressive programs, but remain long going in to Wednesday. Yesterday's comments continue for today. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 1, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Long and leveraged for Tuesday. Probabilities look positive. Volatility remains low. Market Structure level fell (helpful to the long side) and money flow is positive. Not much in the news area to support either direction, so strong technicals should call the direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 29, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. We had a very good week even though we were in the market only one day. Our signal remains neutral for Monday as we refrain from going short under low volatility conditions. After Monday I expect to see a rally that could easily take the market to new highs. Our Market Structure Level is in a better position to support a rally, volatility remains low and our money flow indicator has turned positive for the week ahead. Our new program with enhanced low volatility sensitivity should be operational early this coming week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 28, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Our Market Structure Level, remains negative but has climbed much closer to neutral and our volatility reading remains low helping to support the market. Still we are cautious for Friday and remain in the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 27, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. Strong rebound on Wednesday leaving us in a neutral position for Thursday. Overall volatility remains low despite Wednesdays sharp up-move and that should keep the market from making any large negative response. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 26, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We have gone fully long for Wednesday. The market fell on Tuesday, probably triggered by the drop in oil prices. Probabilities look good for a Wednesday market recovery. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 23, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. We will be "real money" tracking a new "volatility" based program starting at the end of this coming week. If you have been following us for awhile you would have read my comments on the effects of volatility on the market. The last few years saw an exceptional amount of low volatility trading days. This new program will have special tools to deal with low volatility markets and be able to move back into our normal program under the more normal higher volatility conditions. This past week was a good example of low volatility trading days. Over the next few weeks we will describe program's market exposure, how the program should compare to our current programs and what to expect, pro and con. Like all of our programs our own money will be invested in it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 21, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Continued slowing volatility is helping keep the markets positive. Other than volatility there does not seem to be much to be said on the positive side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 20, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. Volatility has dropped significantly causing us to temporarily suspend any short sales. This does not mean the market won't go down, it only means that their is little fear about, so little reason to expect the markets to drop significantly. (on a statistical basis). Still the transports dropped by almost 2% on Wednesday. Not a good sign, and we would have a short signal here, except as stated above, we avoid going short under very low volatility conditions. Therefore we moved into the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 19, 2015 (late posting)

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund. More sluggish market movements and we are now partially long in all programs. I am expecting the market to make labored new highs. I am basing this on the continued low volatility offset in part by our negative Market Structure. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 18, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. We now have two relatively low volatility days. Low volatility is good for the markets and could help push the markets to new highs. On the other hand our Market Structure remains negative with the expectations of more down days than up days. We are on the sidelines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 15, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Volatility had kicked up over the past few weeks but Friday was dull with little change. We have our signals leaning slightly higher, without conviction and not enough to warrant the exposure. The stock market is pretty much where it was on the second of March. The market has undergone some internal corrections where individual stocks have seen large one-day drops when sales, earnings or projections were not favorable. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 14, 2015

Comments: May 13, 2015 (late posting)

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We have gone fully long for Thursday. All signal components are strong. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 12, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Nothing has changed but the probabilities are slightly higher since we just had two down days. Readings remain mostly flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 11, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. We have moved back to the money market. Mostly flat readings for Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 8, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Between decent but not runaway employment numbers and a stock market friendly outcome for the British elections the market went higher on Friday. This should carry over into Monday which would put the indexes once again back near recent highs. Our Market Structure level is near its low which generally means more difficulty for the markets to go much higher near term. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 7, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Our signal is for the money market but the overall probabilities are leaning a bit to the upside. Still Friday is the hardest day to predict as weekend fears tend to turn it negative often enough to flatten the probabilities. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 6, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. The market conditions have improved following the two down days, but there could be another day of difficulty. We have taken a small long position with our aggressive programs. Our Anticipatory trend has turned long and probabilities are somewhat positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 5, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Good size down day helped us out. Working for the upside on Wednesday is continued mostly low volatility and the relative safety of being mid week. On the downside we have our Anticipatory trend turning negative and our Market Structure level still in the negative zone. Overall our signal is very flat for Wednesday. Longer term investors should not be too concerned. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 4, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. The market accumulated then gave back most of the day's gains. We have reversed our position and reduced our exposure. The recent upturn in volatility lets us cautiously back into the market on the short side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 3, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We took a hit Thursday and Friday and are now fully long. The NDX closed at the high of the day and unfortunately that usually means that the market is overheated. Still the increase in volume is welcome and I expect to be back to our positive mode very soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 30, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. Bad day in the markets and we are seeing more companies take large hits on less than stellar earnings or projections. Linkedin is down 21% after hours after losing 2% during the day. Yelp lost 23% during the day and Twitter took a hit for 25% over two days. These are large numbers. The good news is that volatility will pick up which should make our life easier. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 29, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All programs are now fully long. The markets relatively calm and looking for direction from the FED. This should turn into a positive mood by mid day Thursday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 28, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Twitter took a loss, lowered projections and tanked with shares losing 18%. The NDX had a large swing dropping 1% shortly after the open then fully recovering and ending with a small loss. We have moved to the sidelines. Volatility remains on the low side and the Fed meets on Wednesday. I don't expect any sudden moves. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 27, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. The volatility has increased enough to allow us to go partly short in our aggressive programs. Apple which has a strong influence on the NDX announced very good earnings, as expected, after the close sending the stock up a little over 1%. Better than stocks? Eleven three letter URLs have sold this year at or above $40,000. With an average price of $100,000. Could the internet be heating up again along with the Nasdaq index? Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 24, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Individual stock actions don't always make sense. Amazon reported earnings after the close on Thursday and the aftermarket went down, only to recover and send the stock up 14% on Friday. The upside we are seeing in the overall market is a function of the low volatility that has kept the markets from sinking under conditions that would normally send it lower. Volatility has started to increase and that could temper the recent run higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 23, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Google jumped more than 3% after hours after they reported earnings and sales that missed analysts estimates. ??? This pushed the after market higher for the NDX. We remain on the sidelines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 22, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. Looks like the upside will come to a pause here, but the low volatility will keep the markets from experiencing much downside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 21, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 66.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All programs have turned long. Volatility remains low and our anticipatory trend is positive. The low volatility should help sustain the market for awhile. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 20, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. China's tightening and loosening moves are most likely behind the Friday-Monday market ride that left the markets mostly unchanged from Thursday's close. The two days of large moved have helped the volatility some, but we might see the market move back to a crawl. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 17, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Friday brought an increase in volatility but more is needed. Cross influences for Monday. Normal pattern is for Monday's direction to follow Friday's lead. But the overall volatility is low telling us that there is still very little fear in the markets and the lack of fear keeps the markets up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 16, 2015* (late post)

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Not much going on as the volatility has dried up. Hard to read the markets when nothing is happening. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 15, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All programs are now fully long. The rally may only last through Thursday so, like always, we are closely monitoring the influences. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 14, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. All of our programs have gone long as we have better alignment in our indicators. Volatility is low and fear is minimal. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 13, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. Market volatility is dropping. Small daily moves do not cause fear in markets so we will be avoiding going short. Our Market Structure is climbing off of the lows from last week and that should prevent the market from making much positive headway. So we find ourselves in neutral. Many signals are conflicted, money flow has turned positive and our Anticipatory trend has turned negative. We will wait another day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 11, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100%: Money market. Hot Money program is Long:50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100%: Money market. We moved our aggressive programs to a partial long position. Volatility continues to drop supporting the long position. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 9, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 40% Short Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. The volatility is low enough to keep us out of using leverage on the down side, but high enough to believe that there could be downside for Friday. Price change was a little more positive than expected, but that often leads to a reversing of direction in a cooling market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 8, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. The NDX closed within a few points of yesterday's high and our Market Structure level started to climb. Our anticipatory trend went from long to flat. Everything seems to be moving in a normal mode and if it continues Thursday should show little price change with Friday going lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 7, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. The markets reversed an early gain and closed lower. Our Market Structure remains at is lowest level and our anticipatory trend remains long. My expectation is the market may toy with Tuesday's high but by Friday we will see the start of serious down-side action going into the early part of next week. A bit too early to say with any amount of certainty, but price patterns are leaning in that direction and there should be pressure on the market as our Market Structure level begins to climb over the next few days and anticipatory trend turns short. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 6, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. After the early morning drop the markets recovered and held on to most of their gains. Another case of bad news for the economy being good news for the markets, it would be nice to see an alignment of interests. For Tuesday our anticipatory trend is up and our Market Structure level has gone as far down as it can go. Over the next few weeks the level should work its way higher which will mean we should expect another round of resistance and the NDX getting back down to the 4200 level. Meanwhile the dollar is starting to fall and oil prices are moving higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 2, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. The markets were closed Friday but the job numbers came out showing job creation about half of what was expected. The aftermarket plunged, then recovered on the news. It appears that this drifting economy will drift awhile longer as the Fed now has more reason to delay the rise in interest rates. This will allow the multinationals some more easy money for awhile. With the dollar getting stronger and not much money flowing to the bottom rungs of the population inside the US, neither the internal or external profit centers will be delivering for the big companies and more layoffs will probably be needed to maintain earnings growth needed to hold up stock prices. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 1, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. I don't know what caused this second day of downside but we continue to hold our long position. The charts show a small head and shoulders pattern building, which is not my concern but it could prove true. My estimate is that our long position could hold into early next week where it would be exhausted. And if the volatility continues to build, the market could be in for a significant ride lower perhaps starting at the end of next week as multi-day drops tend to replicate the downtrend about three weeks later. This could bring the NDX down to the 4100 area speaking in general terms. The S&P is now flat for 2015, the NDX is plus and the RUT is doing well. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 31, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Well as I mentioned yesterday, but did not think would happen, Tuesday turned lower after the Monday gain. We are holding our position for another day as our positives remain intact. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 30, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. A positive market day with good probabilities for another. On the Plus side our Market Structure level fell, our Anticipatory trend remained positive and volatility remains on the low side. The votes to the down side are money flow and the fact that Tuesdays tend to lean lower after a Monday gain. Still we have a strong "up" signal and are fully long (within the parameters of our programs) Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 27, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long:50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. After spending a long week in the money market we have entered the market with a small long position. As you can see from our probabilities this is not an enthusiastic "long". Friday the market action was positive and our signal components have turned positive. Our Market Structure level stepped back down without going positive. The Fed continues to talk of raising rates but they have a long way to climb before they become burdensome. Last year on March 27 the 10 Year notes were at 2.7% now they are at 1.95%, while T-bills are unchanged at .03%. With the volatility remaining low I expect the near term direction to be up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 26, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. The NDX has now lost over 3% during the all down past four days. It still, however, remains up almost 2% for 2015. This downturn came under rather mild volatility conditions and mild volatility conditions usually support markets rather than destroy them. Because of this we remained on the sidelines this past week. Our Market Structure level has now paused at one step below the transition range. Even though the markets generally turn higher after four down days Friday is another story, most likely because of the fear as to what other bad news may be lurking over the weekend. We will remain on the sidelines another day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 25, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. We saw some fear in the markets at the close as the NDX and the S&P closed on the low of the day. Good chance for a bounce at this point with the NDX also down three days in a row. However, today's large drop in the NDX could set the stage for an actual downtrend later this month or early next as it causes an increase in volatility necessary to sustain a drop. Watching the size of the daily changes over the coming weeks will be a tell. Our Market Structure level has climbed to one step below the transition range, but still in negative territory. Our Anticipatory trend remains "short" giving us an overall neutral signal, so we will remain on the sidelines another day. All of our programs are now above the NDX and S&P indexes year to date. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 24, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Another small pullback as the market runs through a pausing phase. Our money flow remains positive and the daily changes in the NDX remain small supporting the market, but our climbing Market Structure level is providing a negative influence. It would be a positive sign if the markets were to end lower on Wednesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 23, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. Small pullback as the market runs through a pausing phase. Our money flow turned positive and the daily changes in the NDX remain small supporting the market, but our climbing Market Structure level is providing a negative influence. We will wait for better alignment of interests. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 20, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Good day for the markets as oil gained and the dollar fell on the belief that Fed action was not imminent. You do not have to listen to the words if you watch the interest rates, they will move higher prior to the rate hike which could continue to be delayed. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 19, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. The NDX managed to gain a tenth of a percent as the other averages fell. We remain on the sidelines for the same reasons that we had yesterday, the daily changes remain small with a lot of negatives in the air. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 18, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. Prior to the Fed comments the market was lower, but bond rates were also lower. Since the fear was that rates would raise soon, the bond rates should have been higher in anticipation, not lower, so that was a tell. And even with dropping the "patient" line the market took off. I closed out our long positions after the close. There are quite a few negatives for Thursday including money flow, negative anticipatory trend and a jump in our Market Structure level but the volatility remains low enough to caution against shorting at this early stage of trouble. That could change quickly and we would change with it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 17, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Mixed market day leading into the Fed meeting and comments. We have a small positive signal with continued small daily changes and a positive anticipatory trend. I do not believe the Fed is willing to raise rates too soon as that might make the dollar even stronger which is more of a problem than the current imaginary inflation since we continue to be in a deflationary mode. But that is just my point of view based on our T-Index. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 16, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. Monday's good size move moved the markets back in balance for the short term and we moved to the sidelines. Oil hit the $43 range as the euro strengthened against the dollar. Volatility as measured by the size of the daily changes remains on the low end helping keep the market afloat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 13, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Some NDX gains during the last ten minutes have weaken the strength of our signal for Monday, but it still remains remains long. The NDX remains higher for 2015 while the S%P500 has turned negative. Volatility is still in the lower 1/3 historically and that reflects a positive attitude for investors. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 12, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Reasonable gain for Thursday but Friday has conflicting signals. The downside is opposed by the continuing relatively small daily changes making shorting a more dangerous proposition. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 11, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Some negative carryover on Wednesday. Our Market Structure level is now fully negative, which normally means that more negative days than positive will be seen in the near future. On the other hand we still have relatively small daily changes overall which, unless we see more large daily moves regardless of direction, should prove to be positive for the market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 10, 2015

Current position for Wedesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Nasty day but we maintain our position. The strengthening could be a reason for the drop, but the dollar problem has been going on for some time. Looks more like an inverse celebration of a six year bull market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 9, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Our Market Structure level fell again, a good indicator for a positive market. I expect to see more upside this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 8, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. The weakest day of the week took a toll on the markets Friday. With this still being a low volatility market we should have a quick recovery. I have moved both our more conservative programs long in line with our signal. Our Market Structure level continues to fall. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 5, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. Small gain and we are holding our long position in our aggressive programs. On the plus side the volatility remains low and our Market Structure level continues to fall. On the negative side we are heading into Friday which has been the weakest day for the NDX over the past 30 years. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 4, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. First strong signal in awhile. The Market had been mostly flat for over a week and now looks to be headed higher. Our Market Structure level has dropped for holding one step below even. As it drops it can be described as releasing the energy needed by the market to go higher. Our signals are anticipatory and do not wait for a direction to take hold and become obvious. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 3, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. It is necessary to be patient under current conditions. The forces are in balance with a small edge to the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 2, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. First day of strength in awhile. This helps raise the volatility which had turned to a drizzle. More efforts by Asia and Europe to reduce interest rates will should keep upward pressure on the US dollar. And in doing that keep a lid on overseas growth of our multinationals. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 1, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Friday showed some weakness in the NDX leaving the week little changed. Usually Friday weakness carries over into Monday but with the volatility so low that may not happen. We remain in the money market. The JC Penny trade worked as expected and I closed my position with close to a 5% profit. Weight watchers was also hit on Thursday after the close we left that one alone because sales were falling along with earnings. It saw a 15% drop in the aftermarket expand into a 35% drop by Friday's close. These trades can be dangerous and should be carefully placed with only a small portion of your funds. Always make an effort to know as much about the situation as possible. Although it seems that the aftermarket traders are less professional and more emotional, sometimes they are also correct. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 26, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. Oil dropped below $49 and stayed there. The tech sector didn't care and gained some. We are holding our money market position. JC Penny had flat earnings but growth in sales, I believe they are on the right path, since they needed to first get their customers back in the stores, later they can make profits. It dropped 10% on the news, in the aftermarket, so I purchased a small amount. I don't like individual stocks because of their volatility but every now and then, I will take a small position for a short while, when I see what I think is an over reaction in the aftermarket. I could be wrong. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 25, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. First NDX down day in the past 11. Little change in parameters, though oil ran below $50 then recovered to go above. We are holding our money market position. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 24, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Recently each day the NDX starts off lower and slowly climbs back to close a bit higher. The Volatility has dropped and is in the low range. Our Market Structure level is holding one step below even, but its negative connotation is offset by the low volatility. To avoid unnecessary risk, we will wait for better opportunity Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 23, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. Apple's large move carried the NDX into positive territory leaving most of the other indexes under water. Low interest rates and small daily changes help hold the market up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 22, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Sorry late posting.

Comments: February 19, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market. The market is running a double positive with very low interest rates and now, once again, very low volatility. This has overpowered the negatives and is helping the NDX index slowly climb. The other indexes are less affected. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 18, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. The volatility has become greatly reduced which is positive for a continuance of the upward trend. Our Market Structure level has climbed to just below the zero mark and is now within a day of going into the transition area if it does not turn back down or hold. Just below zero is often a very negative area. Still the low volatility keeps us cautious. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 17, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Mostly unchanged market and unchanged forecast. Small movements are, however, conducive to moving the market higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 15, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. We continue to have potential to go lower but it is balanced by persistent low interest rates which the market has taken as the good thing ( it usually is). But without proper government policies that lead to growth the low rates could turn out to be a bad thing, surprising the investors that have come to rely on it for market support. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 12, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. We have a strong "short" signal prior to going into the three day weekend. The NDX made it to a new high, and closed at that high. This usually means too much enthusiasm which is generally followed by a pullback. Our Market Structure level has come off the low and as it climbs the market generally falters. Oil is a little over $50 and has not influenced the markets these past few days but that could change. Overall our negative opinion of the next week has not changed. And finally today our short and long term signals have moved into alignment with the downside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 11, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. All other programs 100% money market. The NDX continued higher on Wednesday as almost all other indexes closed lower. This market is ripe for rumors as a hint of possibility of resolution in Greece sent the aftermarket higher. I don't think Greece will really matter in the long term as they are very small. I continue to look for a drop and now expect the Friday-Monday time frame could be the start. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 10, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. Good size up move should have fulfilled the expected attempt on new 2015 highs that we spoke of last week, although the attempt was delayed by two days. The signal for Wednesday is neutral and going past that most of what I see is negative for most of the month. With a neutral signal the news can easily blow it either way so we will wait for the market to give us better information. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 9, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Overnight the DAX (German market) fell almost 2% tugging on the US markets. The market is getting an early start towards the down side, but it might try to pull up on Tuesday prior to a larger rout. We cut our exposure for Tuesday and expect to be trading to the down side later in the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 6, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We are holding our long position into Monday as our signal continues strong. The down side on Friday does not help our position as investors get unnerved when Friday falls. Greece and oil were in the news again and next week I expect poor reactions to any news in those sectors. The US trade deficit worsened with the strength of the dollar. There is not much left to hold up this market, hopefully it can last another day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 5, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. A strong Thursday and our work indicates that there may be two more days left to this rally, unless news gets in the way. We are fully long. The indices are about 1.5% from their recent tops and the next two days would be a good time to test those highs. Following that our money flow patterns turn sour for about two weeks. This correlates with our Market Structure level which has continued to move lower and is close to its bottom. From there the market would struggle to make much upside progress. In addition, if Friday does go higher, Monday historically leans in the same direction. Expect a fair share of problems with oil prices, Greece, earnings, and the radicals to pop up and send prices lower over the next two weeks. But we still must focus day by day as things change. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 4, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37. 5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Wednesday we got the expected jitters. The ECB was negative on Greece near the close and oil once again fell below $50. This news has carried over into the aftermarket and will have an impact on the European markets, it may extend into our markets in the morning. I have held our position from yesterday. We can not and do not forecast the news, what we do is to try to undercover the predisposed market leanings for the next day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 3, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37. 5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund. The general trend for this week is higher, but with expected jitters. Oil moved into the mid fifties area and the markets followed. Our anticipatory trend turned long but some slowing is to be expected after the past two strong days higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 2, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. Oil prices had moved higher since late Friday, and for a while the market did not seem to notice. Then, late Monday a larger than expected move to the upside came quickly to the markets. The move may have been overdone and we have reversed our position for Tuesday with the expectations of a small retreat. Our Market Structure level remained the same, now three steps below even. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 30, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37. 5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 1x fund. The normal price action following a down Friday is a down Monday. This one may be different as our signal has turned positive after leaning lower for most of the past week and a half. Still the signal is only mildly positive and we have held back on our exposure. Oil has shown a strong rebound and is now well over the $45 mark. Our Market Structure level became more negative so there is a good chance that it will work its way lower (kind of reloading for another assault on the indexes), and allowing time for the market to recover next week starting Monday or Tuesday. So although there may be a new low on Monday the week should trend higher followed by more downside trouble mid February. The volatility has been helpful to us this month, as it has moved from exceptionally low volatility to the midrange in volatility (measured by the actual size of the daily changes). The higher the volatility, the easier it is to read the market, as the emotional component becomes more obvious. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 29, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund. The market more than recovered from its early fall. We are holding our short position and adding our most conservative program to it. Both Google and Amazon reported sales that missed projections, but Amazon's very strong earnings beat while Google's fell short. Our Market Structure remained slightly negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 28, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market fund. Oil broke below $45 and the FED was silent. Our program is looking for yet another down day and we have increased our exposure. Our Market Structure is now only one level below even, usually this is a dangerous area for the market. Market volatility remains below the median of the past 21 years a somewhat positive influence. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 27, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market fund. After the market sell-off Apple reported super numbers centered on its cell phone sales. The numbers are relevant only to Apple and Iphones and do not reflect the strength of the US economy, or the rest of Apples product line. Still the numbers were very impressive and the company is brilliantly run. With Apple's ability to skirt US taxes, hoard its cash and "build and sell" overseas there is little positive carryover into the US economy. It does represent somewhere around 5% of the price moves in the S&P so a 5% move would move the S&P about 0.25%. And it has a larger influence on the NDX. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 26, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% Money market. Perhaps when investors realized that Greece is too small to matter, the markets recovered. The GDP of Greece is only 6.5% that of Germany and only 9.6% that of France. We are on the sidelines for Tuesday. Apple earnings come out after the close Tuesday and analysts are expecting good things. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 23, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market fund. We are holding our short position for another day with the exception of our most conservative program which moved to the money market. Our Market Structure remains negative, but the levels are climbing. I expect to see some positive action Tuesday and Wednesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 22, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 50% Inverse S&P 1X fund. The ECB stimulus euphoria drove the markets higher, probably too high. We remain partially short. Our anticipatory trend is short along with our overall Market Structure. The market volatility is now very close to its long term median value. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 21, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 50% Inverse S&P 1X fund. Partial negative signal for Thursday. The market had staged a small three day recovery and now we see many short term negatives. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 20, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% Money market. I expect the market to have difficulty making much in the way of gains this week, though the NDX did get an earnings boost on Tuesday. We are on the sidelines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 16, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37. 5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 1x fund. The market finally closed higher. The day looked very positive as the climb was slow but deliberate. For Tuesday we have gone only partially long as there are still some negatives to overcome and the oil situation can cause aberrations. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 15, 2015

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% Money market. We have a continuous, but so far not terrible, fall in index prices which are loosely tracking oil. Our signal is holding us in the money market going into Friday. There was a strong pop over night Wednesday, but it did not last, we will just wait for direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 14, 2015

Current position for Thursday: All programs are 100% Money market. Moderate downside on Wednesday. We remain on the sidelines. The NDX usually bounces back after three down days in a row and now we are at four, so though we should have that mid week bounce, our signal remains cautious. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 13, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: All programs are 100% Money market. Large swing day ending a little lower as early +1% gains disappeared. I expect more of an attempt to go higher to follow on Wednesday or Thursday, then a drop which could be substantial. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 12, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1x fund. Oil resumed its fall on Monday sending the markets with it. We are expecting a bounce and firming of the market this week starting on Tuesday. It looks like oil could stay below $50 for a long time as the world struggles with deflation but the small daily changes in the stock market are not signaling the same size drop in the indexes. Could be a few days of rally here before the next storm. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 9, 2015

Current position for Monday: All programs are 100% Money market. This first full week of the year turned out to be an excellent week for us with all programs closing higher and our Hot Money program up 8% in five days. I expect this down Friday's negativity to carry over into early Monday. But with low volatility I don't see excess. I am also expecting some upside Tuesday through Thursday with more downside next Friday flowing heavily into the following week. Still we play it day by day re-evaluating the conditions at day end for the next day's position. Overall, even with the low volatility adding buoyancy, there are enough negatives to suggest that January will close lower than it is today. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 8, 2015

Current position for Friday: Primary program is 100% Money market. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 1x fund. Thursday provided us with even more than we were expecting, but that may be it for this week. We moved our aggressive programs into the money market and reduced our exposure on the other two. For the past 20 years, going into the weekend has not been the best time for the markets, but our anticipatory trend remains positive, while our main signal has turned flat. Volatility is low but increasing. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 7, 2015

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1x fund. Oil paused and the over-sold market rebounded as expected. We partially reduced our exposure in our more aggressive programs. Our signal remains long and the volatility (as we measure it), remains low, which is positive. Our longer term Market Structure remains negative telling us that the market will have to struggle to regain its longer term upward path, so progress should be slow. I expect the market will have more downside this month. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 6, 2015

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1x fund. Oil continues lower this should carry over into corn from the ethanol relationship and from there over to the other grains and then cattle. All this adding to the overhanging deflationary trend that has existed for the past six years. This is not a zero sum game. The reduced costs will go into the pockets of those who need it most and they are the ones who will spend it immediately instead of putting it in war chests for tomorrow. This is a good thing and will actually do something for the broad economy. Though not necessarily for the stock market where the bulk of profits come from overseas and who will have to cut prices to deal with a strong dollar. The market continues its oversold condition but now our anticipatory trend has turned bullish and our signal is long and strong. Probabilities are good for an up-day. This string of down days should echo later in the month and prevent January from a full recovery. J C Penny is up nearly 20% after hours, that should help the "up" attitude. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 5, 2015

Current position for Tuesday: All programs are 100% Money market. The second trading day of the new year was very good to us as oil's drop below 50 added to the predisposed negative market direction. We have conflicting signals for Tuesday with our Anticipatory trend suggesting more downside and the multi day oversold markets looking to go higher. We will sit in the money market and wait. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 2, 2015

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Short:75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 60% Inverse S&P 1X fund. Partial negative signal for Monday and we reversed positions. For 2015 we have added the capability to benefit from low volatility conditions which provides us with tools for the full range of market conditions we would expect to encounter. Current volatility is low enough to support continued market gains while large enough to allow us to short the markets when necessary as we have seen over the past week and expect for Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.