Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments: December 31, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We will be trading the S&P 500 funds during the month of January.  If investors remain comfortable with the present low growth situation of corporations the markets can continue to climb higher.  The real estate trends that I follow are showing a dip in prices in the Autumn time frame compared to growth during the summer. This slow down, if it continues, will most likely lead to a market correction as investors feel less secure about their holding. A new long over due long-term forecast will be posted this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     Happy New Year.

Comments: December 30, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Again our Market Structure Level held flat with very little change in our daily signal, which continues to lean lower. The Market Structure itself remains very positive giving us the expectation of additional up-side to come soon.  Ten year notes slipped back below 3%.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: December 27, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Market Structure Level held flat while there was very little change in our signal, which continues to lean lower. Today we saw the 10 year notes top 3% for the first time since June of 2011. In 2011 rates went over 3.7% before coming back down. 2010 rates reached 3.99 and 2009 had rates at 3.9% so we are well below the upper range of post recession rates.  I expect more new highs into the early part of 2014.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: December 26, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Most likely we will see a pullback on Friday. We have held back on taking a negative position due to the exceptionally low volatility and the seasonal tendencies of the market to trend higher during the closing sessions of a strong year. This influence could hold into the early part of January.  Our Market Structure Level climbed past the midpoint of the positive range and that is telling us there should be enough energy to power more market up-side very soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: December 24, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is 100%Money market.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We moved our aggressive programs into the money market for Thursday. Market Structure remains unchanged and there should be a bit more upside left in this market prior to year end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      Happy Holidays to all.

Comments: December 23, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Investors seem to be on a year end rush to get in. Late January and February could see some exits.  Our Market Structure remains flat and positive.  Tuesday will be a shortened day with an early close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 22, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The futures market is very positive for Monday, but our trades are made at the prior close and we remain in the money market. Our Market Structure Level remained positive and unchanged. Good news from China for Apple should help the NDX on Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 19, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level climbed today indicating more upside soon.  Next week is Christmas and there is a good chance the week will be positive. Friday's probabilities are only slightly positive.  The market may take another day to digest the jump on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 18, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  A little more action than we have seen in recent months.  Nothing unexpected from the FED and the VIX came down to sleepy levels. Our Market Structure Level remained flat. I expect to see some readjusting after the larger S&P move, possibly the S&P adjusting a bit lower and the NDX a bit higher, but that is a tricky call. I believe that there is still more room left to the upside for this year, should be new highs all around.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 17, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Probabilities now lean to the upside. Our Market Structure declines a step, a positive indication of  potential upside for the next day.  Fed behavior could disrupt the markets but any response should be mild as easing will end soon and few weeks will not have any real impact. More importantly the 10 year notes are still where they were in August.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 16, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is 100%Money market.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Nice early morning market pop, but half of the move slipped away by midday. Tuesday's signal turned fuzzy for our aggressive programs and they moved to the sidelines.   The Market Structure continues holding flat and positive. I am looking for more strong upside later in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 13, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We are now fully long. The Market Structure is holding flat and positive. The negative cash flow of last week has past and the market should be ready for a run higher into the start of next year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 12, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% money market.  The NDX fell along with most indexes near the close. The negative cash flow continues into Friday and is now accompanied by our Short signal. I expect this to send the NDX lower. Our Market Structure level remains flat and steady.  With retail sales positive and employment negative the market spent the day pretty much flat-lined. Market does appear over-sold but there could be some fear of holding over the weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 11, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All or our programs are now long. The Market Structure Level fell one step to the center of the positive zone, a reliable indicator of upward force. Still we are under the influence of a negative cash flow that could last till Friday. But most likely we will see a small bounce on Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 10, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We don't have any change from yesterday's forecast. Expectations are for his week to be sloppy, and most likely, next week more positive. Market Structure remains positive and flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 9, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  This should be a sloppy market week as we have some negative money flow signals.  Our Market Structure remains positive and flat and that should carry us through the end of the year on a positive note.  We are fully in the money market for Tuesday.  Department stores looked rather empty on Sunday.  I noticed that over the past few years as mainstream stores took a big hit many "vintage" and "second hand" stores were opening up.  They carry items that can't easily be purchased on the Web and provide both product and entertainment value to the shopper.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 6, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%Money market.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The latter part of December is generally the most positive time of the year for the markets and we are only a week away.  Compound annual percent change for the NDX since 1993 (past 20 years) was 1.3% for the last two weeks of the year. For Monday the situation looks a lot like it looked for Friday.  Market Structure also similar, positive and holding. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 5, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%Money market.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The uptrend remains in force even with the slow drain on the markets we have seen this week.  Our Market Structure remains positive and the structure level continues to move sideways.  Probabilities are slightly positive. We are long only in our long/money market program. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 4, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  While most indices fell, the NDX managed a small gain. We moved fully long in our aggressive programs, staying in the money market for the others.  Our Market Structure Level remained flat and positive.  Observation on the Amazon drone subject.  Amazon could be looking to add their own fleet of vehicles to high volume areas and feed the vehicles via drones (landing on truck tops), during the day with high volume products like  best selling books. This eliminates the problem of drones on peoples lawns or pets etc. It would mean more small distribution centers to disperse the high volume products, drones and Amazon trucks. This would not be good for UPS and FEDEX, but would probably cut costs and speed delivery for Amazon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 3, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Apple kept the NDX from a greater fall as all indices we follow drifted lower.  Our Market Structure Level held steady on Tuesday and remains positive.  I am glad to see the VIX climb as this should increase the size of the daily changes.  Probabilities are slightly lower for Wednesday and I expect another small down day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 2, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level climbed on Monday and remains positive.  This type of behavior extends the upside behavior at the expense of the short term. I expect more upside opportunity prior to year end.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 30, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  We reduced our exposure going into Monday.  Market Structure Level is positive and holding steady.  Market looks over bought, but the moves are small, and the upside could continue.  No special retail news from Black Friday as sales appeared to fall in line with estimates. Overall trend remains positive as our Market Structure Level creeps back towards the transition zone.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 27, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All or our programs are long going into Friday.  Our Market Structure Level descended another step and is now midway in the positive range, telling us the markets should continue to make gains next week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 26, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Our conservative programs have gone long.  Our Market Structure Level has taken a step down which gives a positive indication for the markets.  I do not see any immediate negatives for the market.  Zillow, the subject of yesterday's comments was up 5.4% on Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 25, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level remains very positive and unchanged.  More upside is highly likely over the next two weeks.  A peek at Zillow the Web based company focused on real estate shows some problems may be brewing.  Zillow attracts users to its site by offering a highly accurate estimate of home prices throughout the US.  Zillow needs accurate prices to encourage visitors to return to their site.  Problem is that sometimes adjustments to Zillow's algorithm results in large changes to valuations in certain areas that do not reflect reality.  I tracked a number of prices in a few states over the past few months and found the Zillow values in general to be very reflective of sale prices. However, I saw price changes ranging from +14% to -47%, just over this weekend among the few samples that I looked at.  Unless Zillow gets on top of this quickly their reputation and readership will suffer along with their stock price.  

Update: Zillow fixed the problem. Good work Zillow!

Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 22, 2013

Current position for Monday: Conservative program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  As we saw last Friday we got another "sell" signal for our aggressive programs, too late to process so we are in the Money Market with those programs. Last minute signals are generally not as reliable.  Our Market Structure level remains very high and unchanged.  More upside is expected over the next one to two weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 21, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Although probabilities are slightly positive, Friday is not a historically good day to go long, but it is excellent during strong bull markets. Our Market Structure Level remains one step from the peak.  More market upside should come as it descends. Bitcoin has been in the news lately as its value made wild swings.  This is something to avoid.  What would happen to its value if PayPal started their own currency or for that matter Amazon of any of the other super sized players in E commerce?  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 20, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our probabilities look good for Thursday, our signal is mild but positive and our Market Structure Level is now only one step from the top.  Once the level falls, the market should climb back up to reach new highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 19, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level climbed into the upper-middle of the positive range. That should allow the market to make another run to new highs over the next week or two.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 18, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The newer technology stocks were hammered on Monday. TSLA -10.2%,  TWTR -6.5%,  YELP -9.0%, and  FB -6.5%, while older technology stocks slipped moderately  AAPL -1.2%, GOOG -.2%,  AMZN -.8%, NFLX -2.3%.  This reflects the greater risk in companies with unseasoned earnings.  Our Market Structure Level climbed to the middle of the positive range. There should be another run higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 15, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The markets triggered a sell signal for Monday too late for us to participate so we remained in the money market.  Signals late in the day are always suspect and this market keeps looking for any excuse to go higher so shorting has not been a good idea this year. The Vix continues to shrink lulling investors to sleep while our Market Structure Level climbs back into the positive range, helping to ensure more market upside.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 14, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  After a few good days in the market with our aggressive programs we moved back to the money market.  Most indices are at new highs for the year.  Our Market Structure level bounced off the transition zone and is now at the low end of the positive area. Most likely it will climb back to the top of the positive area telling us there is still more upside in this market. The Vix is in the low 12 - 13 range which keeps our visibility down average Vix over the past 21 years is about 20. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 13, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The NDX did very well on Wednesday, but Cisco gave bad news after the bell and sent the futures lower.  Still Cisco CEO John Chambers held it all together as he remained unflustered.  It was more of the same, a shrinking top line and growing earnings and margins.  I wonder how they are able to continue getting their improvements in productivity, but it continues to happen.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 12, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  With little changed we are holding our position into Wednesday.  Probabilities do look good for a mid week rally even though we are not getting any support from our unchanged Market Structure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 11, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  We held our position into Tuesday.  Nothing has changed from our point of view though volatility has slipped more, and is down to 12.5 on the Vix.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 10, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The markets were happy with the better than expected employment numbers but they really weren't very good with the unemployment rate climbing again.  Most interesting for the week 10 year notes climbed back to 2.75% and gasoline prices continued to fall. Our Market Structure remains at the top of the transition zone but most likely will soon move back positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 7, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Twitter fever kept the news media busy as the market took its worse tumble in over a month.  We have moved fully to the sidelines as the Market Structure Level remains at the top of the transition area.  Friday looks weak from a number of perspectives, but this market was willing to push Twitter up over 70% so the upside is not over.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 6, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  More tiny vibrations from the NDX which is now less than a 1/10% away from where it was 8 days ago.  We continue to hold our partial positions. The Market Structure Level has slipped onto the top of the transition zone.  Most likely we will see it start to climb back up in a few days as the market has some internal readjustments and gets ready for another up cycle. If we see the Structure Level fall any lower there would be more concern for a down turn.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 5, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market is on autopilot, it is vibrating in place.  Our Market Structure level has now fallen to the bottom of the positive area and is in a position to possibly signal a shift to a negative market strategy.  We have been at this junction a number or times this year and it has never even moved below the topmost level of the transition zone. The next few days should tell the story.  Either way I am hoping for more volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 4, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Another rather dead market day with little change for the NDX, other markets did much better. Our Market Structure remains positive and the Level continues to fall; now below the center of the positive zone.  We continue to hold our positions, the NDX is unchanged from 6 days ago.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: November 3, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A rather dead market with little change. Our Market Structure remains positive and the Level continues to fall; now in the center of the positive zone.  We are holding our positions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 31, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX could not hold its small gain and closed a little lower. We are holding our partial position. Our Market Structure level continued its decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 30, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Traders will try to decipher what the FED meant as there is little else happening to move the market.  We got a small signal and moved our conservative programs to the positive side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 29, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  This will be our eighth money market day in a row.  Market Structure level is fixed at the highest level. Normally this type of condition brings a slow decline instead of the slow rise we are seeing.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 28, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  It is starting to get boring. We have not had a strong enough signal in over a week. Our Market structure level is pinned at the top rung and nothing is happening.  News can easily sway this type of market and right now it looks like some slight down side is in order.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 25, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Probabilities show a slight leaning higher with slightly greater potential loss than gain. Overall slightly favorable. Our Market Structure level remained at its highest point which should allow for more upside.  The small daily changes that have been characteristic of this market all year along with the Fed hold on interest rates should help this expectation. The level of margin borrowing has reached the levels last seen at prior market tops. As a good portion of the gains over the past few years came without the growth in top line revenue, a shift in attitude could bring some scary days to the longs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 24, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  After hours Amazon posted a loss in line with expectations, better than expected revenue and current quarter revenue guidance less than expected. And... the stock jumped almost 8% after hours. Microsoft jumped over 5% beating on both revenue and earnings.  Expect the NDX to be higher on Friday.  Our Market Structure level remained at its highest point. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 23, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Now that Carl Icahn sold part of his Netflix holdings the street is looking at possible over priced stocks.  This seems to be early jitters. Our Market Structure is now at the highest level, and as it comes back down there should be more upside for the NDX.  So once again we will be looking for another  market top over the next two weeks.  A number of times this year Our Market Structure Level returned to the top rung and we called for additional upside in the NDX. It has been a long and over extended upside run fueled by the Feds easy money that seems to have some more life in it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 22, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Tuesday night after the market closed NetFlix  jumped 10% on good earnings, but by Wednesday's close it reversed to end down over -9%.  I don't have a clue as to why the big swing, but this does not normally happen in a strong market environment.  Our Market Structure Level climbed yet another day and is a peg from the top. There should be more upside for the NDX as the Level works its way lower.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 21, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  After the market closed NetFlix  jumped 10% on good earnings.  Our Market Structure Level climbed again and is now above mid range positive.  This tells me there will be more upside coming for the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 18, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Google stung us on Friday with an amazing 14% gain in a $900 stock. Some companies seem to be taking in most of the money while many others have negative growth.  Mostly a result of poor distribution of wealth. Our Market Structure level continued to climb; a longer term positive for the market.  While the VIX fell to about 13 a dull area for us.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 17, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 75% Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  Hot Money program is 100%  Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% money market.  Goog had good earnings and revenue after the close and sent the aftermarket higher. Most of today's post close earnings were positive.   Our aggressive programs turned negative, but will have to fight the aftermarket trend. Our Market Structure Level is climbing, a rebuilding process that generally ends in new highs in the market when the rebuilding is complete.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: October 16, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Good day for the markets on news of a temporary debt hike.  After the bell IBM and Ebay reported increased earnings on lower revenue.  Companies may be getting more efficient, but shrinking revenue will eventually mean negative growth and that will translate into smaller PE ratios.  Our Market Structure level bounced back to the lowest rung of the positive area.  Our probabilities show a good change for a small continuation of the rally. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 15, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX crossed the even line a number of times and closed negative.  Our Market Structure slipped to the top of the transition level.  Most likely the level will scoot along the top of the transition for a day or two and then start to climb again.  But there is always danger that it might fall lower. Probabilities for Wednesday are somewhat positive.  Signal is flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 14, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market overcame early weakness to close positive.  Going into Tuesday money flow improves, but with three positive days in a row and China seeming to stall, Tuesday could give up some of Monday's gains. Our signals remain unchanged from the prior signals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 11, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is 100%  Money market. Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our more aggressive programs have gone positive for the year and have made gains in 9 of the past 12 weeks. A short term extension of the debt ceiling should be good for us as it most likely will keep the VIX above the complacent level it settled into for most of this year. Higher volatility makes the markets easier to read.  Our Market Structure Level remained positive and flat. Making higher highs under these conditions should be difficult as new highs are more easily accomplished when the Structure level declines from a higher position.  Still the structure remains positive  and most likely we will see the level climb, as the market forms a base for another advance.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 10, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  For Friday only our most conservative program is in the money market.  Though we often do not see follow through on large one day jumps, our probabilities are still positive, though smaller numbers than yesterday.  Our Market Structure remains positive and flat holding just above the transition level.  Politics caused the large up-move and politics can take it away.  For now I am watching our Market Structure Level, if it starts to build I will expect to see another round of new highs, if it falls through the transition level I would expect that the prior highs were the highs of the year.  If the debt gets extended for six weeks expect more BS from the Washington crowd to mess with the market and economy. To add to the confusion the SEC has just opened a new web site and labeled it "Market Structure", this site has nothing at all to do with our own Market Structure. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 9, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The NDX could not hold above yesterdays close and we now have an oversold condition.  There are some conflicted signals, with money flow and some price patterns negative; but other price patterns are positive  The Market Structure level is positive but unchanged, which is somewhat negative. Our overall signal remains positive but we have moved our conservative programs into the money market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 8, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We moved fully long from Tuesday's neutral position.  The negative effects of negative money flow and technicals hit on Tuesday as we warned last week (Thursday).  Money flow goes neutral on Wednesday before turning negative later in the week and that should help the market slip in a small rebound. This fits in with our other indicators going positive.  The Market Structure held onto the lower level of positive, so from our viewpoint the market remains in an overall positive mode.  The VIX closed above 20 today, helpful to our programs readings. Politics remain a mess, "Chicken" is not a game played in the best interest of America.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 7, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  With price patterns and money-flow going negative this week the market should find it difficult to launch much of a rally this week.  Our Market Structure is holding at the bottom level of positive, if it climbs from here we could see the start of a rally next week.  The VIX climbed, which is a good thing for us.  Waiting for a better signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 6, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All four of our programs showed good gains for the week, overcoming the political bs.  This week should be trickier.  Starting Tuesday we have a number of negative influences previously mentioned. Our Market Structure Level is in a position where it could go into a transition between positive and negative, remain positive or plunge into the negative area.  This managed to coincide with the start of earnings season and the middle of a political farce.  The VIX has moved off its lows enough to give us somewhat better signal readings, yet is low enough that we should not see price swings get out of control.  It would seem to me that this week should end lower but if the political situation gets resolved we could see a rally instead.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 3, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We never like to see the market manipulated and didn't expect it from the president,  but his meeting with the big boys, GS etc followed by negative comments brought the house down. Hard to say for how long his impact will last, but we were and still are looking for a down week starting next Tuesday. Our outlook  is based on money flow and price patterns, not politics.  For Thursday our Market Structure Level continued its decline bringing it close to the bottom of the positive area.  If next week takes the level negative we most likely would have seen the top of the markets for 2013. The level has bounced off the lower levels of the positive range four times this year and has not been negative since September of 2011.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 2, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets spent most of the day in negative territory.  And a pause is necessary for a higher run. Considering that our money flow positive, the Vix is over 16 and our Market Structure level is positive but declining there appears to be good support for our Long position.  On the other side we have a sloppy political situation, but we all know how that will end.  Meanwhile we do have a negative aftermarket to overcome.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 1, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money Market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is 100% Money Market.  Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  New closing highs in the NDX.  I expect to see more of these over the next week.  As the Market Structure level and money flow are in supportive positions. Wednesday, may have some problems getting much higher as the political situation could influence the more speculative money to pull back.  We have lightened our position but expect to be back fully long soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 30, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have more depth to our "long" signal for Tuesday as our Market Structure level fell, our money flow turned positive and the Vix climbed over 16.  A Vix in the 16 area is still low, but better than the average level we have for 2013.  Money flow looks to be positive for the whole week so I expect any rally to last a few days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 27, 2013

Current position for Monday: Retirement program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.   The NDX is back where it was seven days ago, but it never moved very far either way. We are fully in the money market. Political noise will easily spook or encourage these markets as they have no real predisposed direction and the amount of fear is very low. Hopefully we will have more chances to trade this coming week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 26, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Signal turned long again.  I expect the NDX to put in a new 2013 high on Friday.  I have corrected our last two days posting to reflect our position in the retirement program.  The Market Structure Level is still high and the rally should continue.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 25, 2013

Current position for Thursday: Retirement program Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  Like yesterday our Market Structure Level is flat and our signal is neutral. The market is now oversold, even though it has not gone down very far, and a move higher is expected very soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 24, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Retirement program Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  Early NDX gains slipped away by the close.   Our Market Structure Level was flat and our signal is neutral.  Expect more new highs over the next week or two.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 23, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This is the first fully long day in a number of weeks.  Our Market Structure Level began its descent. This should give the market another push higher, most likely surpassing previous 2013 highs. Apple shares jumped on news of record sales.  Hard to imagine since the new phones are not that much different from the old ones, but it should help the NDX.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 20, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We ended the week slightly lower.  This is only the second down week we have had in our trading over the past nine as the market has become more normal.  Still the Vix is low keeping a lid on our performance.  Our Market Structure is holding at its highest level and should bring more upside to the market as it falls.  Our signal is neutral while our probabilities are looking a bit positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 19, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100%  Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  This is our first trade in a week and it is a small one. The Market Structure remains at it highest level and should provide a boost to the market over the next week or two. Although I like to see the VIX higher, a lower drifting VIX at this level is not bad for the market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 18, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Fed held firm on bond purchases as not only is the economy growth at a crawl, the mention of cutting back has already cut heavily into the real estate market. Do you think that the Apple phone number/fingerprint combinations are being sent to NSA as soon as they are made, or sent in batches?  Although there was good price movement in the NDX the downside is the VIX is back to the 13 level making overall price movements sluggish.  Our Market Structure has now reached its highest level and will soon start to come to step lower which normally provides more upside for the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 17, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our aggressive programs have been in the money market the past five days and over that time the NDX has gained less than 0.2% with mostly very small daily moves.  We need to see some activity to measure the emotional component of market movement. Our Market Structure Level remains flat and positive. The FED makes an announcement Wednesday and It does not look like they would do very much to help or spook the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 16, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Big early surge in both the stock and bond markets on news that Mr. Summers will not be Fed Chief.  The NDX gain evaporated into a loss as AAPL tumbled.  Although the money flow has turned briefly positive we still do not have enough convincing evidence to enter this market in either direction. That should change later in the week, I expect to the upside.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 13, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX has closed with less than 0.15% change in each of the last two days.  Dull markets are harder to read as they create less investor emotion.  Emotion helps set the market direction for the next day, with little emotion the market is more easily swayed by news. The past two days we have had little in the way of news or emotion. The negative money flow should carry into Monday but another rally in the NDX should start after that.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 12, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Little has changed from yesterday but the NDX is in a slightly better position to go higher following two down days, but with the market structure level climbing again, and money flow negative there is not enough agreement to risk our exposure for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 11, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Apple sent the NDX lower, relieving some of the overbought condition.  I do not expect any large market gains over the next few days as money flow remains negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 10, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Investors await news of Apple supplying China Mobile with phones.  No news at the time of this writing. We are partially long for Wednesday, with our Market Structure level making its frist step lower. The recent six up days on the NDX will hold the markets back as traders look for a pullback.  We are looking at negative money flow Thursday through Monday slowing the market down, then most likely a set of stronger rally days.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: September 9, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX scored its fifth consecutive (and highest) gain on Monday.  With the Market Structure holding only one level from the uppermost position there is potential for more upside later in the week.  For Tuesday, most likely a pause in the run.  Our T-Index still shows the economy in a deflationary mode and until the 90 day bill move well off their lows don't expect to see any real signs of inflation.  With real unemployment still well into bad recession levels there will be no need to raise rates for several years.  Can corporate shrinkage continue to grow earnings that will be worthy of new market highs?  I don't think they can, but markets do over run in both directions.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: September 7, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100%  Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  The NDX fell shy of a new recent intraday high by less than a point Friday, and the market gave up almost all of those gains by the close.  Hopefully the market has digested some of its last few day's gains during the early dip on Friday and is ready to continue to new highs this week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: September 5, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100%  Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  FaceBook is moving along with a 200 PE ratio, but LinkedIn has a 700+ ratio.  LinkedIn announced a $1.2 billion secondary offering.  The 700+ PE ratio will get LNKD 1.2 billion dollars.  Are the LinkedIn folks getting the money at the stock's top?  If you make the reasonable assumption that LNKD will have a more normal PE ten years from now. They still would need to increase earnings at a +46.6% annual rate to get there.  Probably impossible, and more impossible when one considers the dilution the secondary will bring.  Smart move LinkedIn. But it does not look so smart for long term buyers.  What could slow them down?  A serious attempt by FaceBook to control the business market could, and maybe that is why they are issuing the secondary now. 

Our Market structure level climbed again, this will provide plenty of energy for pushing the market to higher highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: September 4, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Long/Mondy market program Long:75% Rydex Ndx 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market.  As our Market Structure Level held flat as the market scored good gains.  Three of our programs remain on the sidelines waiting for a higher probability signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: September 3, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  As our Market Structure Level climbs the markets normally will pause and wait for the level to begin to fall prior to the markets going higher.  We just had a news filled weekend and Tuesday's market climbed, backed off, then climbed halfway back as investors weighed the pros and cons of an attach on Syria.   For Wednesday we moved fully to the sidelines.  There should be another rally this week or early next week and the possibility is strong that this could lead to the highest high that will be generated this year.  The recovery in the US depends on a continued recovery in the housing market which is starting to show some signs of cooling down prior reaching 2006-2007 highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: September 1, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Retirement program 60% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x program.  All other programs are 100% money market.  With Obama making a passionate speech for an attack on Syria, followed by bringing the plan to congress for a vote, coupled with the price of gas in Los Angeles at only $3.79 labor day weekend, can only mean one thing.  No military intervention and a rising stock market for the first week in September.  The aftermarket is already had already moved higher by Sunday afternoon.  Our Market Structure remains positive and Fridays Market Structure level remained flat, a neutral condition.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 29, 2013

Current position for Friday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Although this year has been a struggle we have posted gains in five of the past six weeks and the recent increase in volatility should continue to be a benefit.  Our Market Structure level rose which can provide the energy for another climb in the NDX next week. Most likely a new high is coming.  The Emerging markets are more upset about the eventual halt in Fed bond buying than the US markets.  That is because the cheap money is flowing into the pockets of the US multinationals to fund overseas operations and expansion. This money then flows into overseas suppliers and supports their economies. Not that much is pumped into the US and that is why local employment has not recovered.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 28, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  More weakness in the afternoon trimmed our gains.  Afternoon trading generally shows the overall market sentiment which is somewhat gloomy.  Daily price action is however, positive for Thursday along with a positive longer term Market Structure level, but the level climbed today and that should dampen any positive price movement. We retain our view of higher highs to come.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 27, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The sharp down day helped push the VIX into more reasonable levels. A bit more anxiety and volatility makes for more powerful signals.  With the Market Structure still in positive territory we continue to look for returns on the long side of the market.  Syria's impact on oil is a problem as are the recent foreign based hacker attacks.  10 year note interest rates move in the same direction as the markets and a continued market drop will push rates back down.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 26, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX moved past its recent closing high (as expected), then retreated to close slightly lower (rather unexpected).  The Market Structure level fell another notch.  Our probabilities are leaning higher and there is good reason to think that there will be a higher NDX high sometime this week.  We are however seeing weaker price action and unless we see the Market Structure level climb higher any rally will most likely be short lived as we saw today. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 25, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I have just come back from a week long trip to NYC where I operated by laptop and cell phone.  The city continues to morph and the transformation is almost complete. The residents are now young professionals with a large portion of the older population and minorities gone.  Few children are seen on the streets.  Rents are very high and rooms small. Still the charm of the old buildings and the excitement of the crowds makes the city the place where you want to be.  With such a dense population the $1 per slice of pizza stores have sprung up even within just a few feet of each other. Low cost pizza, hot dogs and yoga have combined to give the young population a way to survive. The workers at the local 24 x 7 diner work 6, 10 hour shifts and some Con Ed workers are doing 6, 12 hour shifts mostly under ground.  The city remains busy......Our Market Structure Level fell on Friday which should be enough to push the NDX to new highs on Monday.  If the Structure Level continues to fall quickly it most likely will result in the final rally.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 22, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX is now only 1.5% away from its recent high and close enough to surpass it over the next few days.  Our Market Structure stopped its decline as the level climbed on Thursday.  This should provide enough "energy" to accomplish that goal.  We moved fully into the money market, but our probabilities are leaning to the positive for Friday.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 21, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level fell for a third day, normally a step lower is a good sign, but we are more hesitant on this downturn and have moved three of our programs into the money market. A few more steps lower in the level will signal a serious down turn in the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 20, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals remained long as the market structure level extended its decline.  We should get another day or two of upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 19, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals turned long and the Market Structure level has started to decline from its high position.  This normally provides the market with enough potential to reach new highs. With the NDX now down 4 days in a row it is in a good position for a rebound.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 16, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market  Structure remained stable and at a high level. I expect the level will start to decline this week and the market should turn higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 15, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The extent of Thursdays fall was a surprise. As the news was not particularly bad.  A small jump in long term rates caused by the termination in bond buying,  together with an improvement in jobs should keep things in balance and not crush housing. The fact that investors took the news in such a negative way suggests that the all year rally may be over.  With the our Market Structure level improved it is still likely that one more trip higher is in store, but it is now more likely that the trip will be a short one. The good news for us it that this type of market behavior produces a more volatile market, making it easier to read that the small ripples that we have seen since the start of the year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 14, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals turned long for Thursday.  Over the past 6 trading days the NDX has not moved more than a half percent in either direction making the market easier to be moved by random news. One of those random news pieces was Cisco.  Cisco announced layoffs and the stock slid 10% in the aftermarket. This came after Cisco announced earnings and revenue that topped estimates.  With revenue growing by 6.2%  it looks more like house cleaning than a direct reflection on the economy and that should be good, not bad, news for Cisco.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 13, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level held flat along with our signal.  AAPL jumped almost 5% giving the NDX another boost. The next rally should mark new highs for the NDX and SPX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 12, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level climbed as our signal remained flat. The Level is now just one step from the top and should provide enough energy to send the market higher once the level started to fall which should be soon.  On Monday most indexes fell, but AAPL's good size gain for the day lifted the NDX about a quarter percent. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 9, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal remained flat.    Our Market Structure Level climbed again, and is now closer to the top of the positive range. I expect a rally to start later this coming week.  If you look at a long term chart of the Shiller PE ratio you will see that our current market is centered between the somewhat high PE ratio of the Black Monday crash in 1987 and the even higher PE ratio of the Black Tuesday crash in 1929.  What determines a good from bad PE ratio is not a fixed number, but one that takes into account current interest rates. Low rate conditions can support higher PE ratios which is why our stock market keeps going higher, and why it starts to drop when those low rates seem threatened.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 8, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal turned flat.  The NDX recovered about half its loss over the prior two days.  Our Market Structure Level climbed and is now mid-way into the positive range, this should be reflected in more upside next week. The daily market changes remain small and I expect them to continue as there seems to be little news, good or bad, to encourage more activity.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 7, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals turned long for Thursday after two days in the money market.  Tesla, new to the NDX should give it a small boost Thursday as TSLA is up 13% in the aftermarket after reporting strong earnings and sales.  Our Market Structure level is holding so upside potential remains for at least a few more days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 6, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level climbed off the bottom of the positive zone indicating to me that there is at least a little more life to this rally.  Our signal remains neutral so we will wait for a better opportunity to expose ourselves to the market forces.   Disney grew, but less than expected giving up in the aftermarket gains made earlier in the day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 5, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level held at the bottom of the positive zone, holding above the transition zone.  Our signal turned neutral and we moved into the money market.  The NDX hardly changed at all for Monday and these tiny changes only add to the already numbingly dull but positive market climate.  Low volatility generally is positive, but ultra low volatility can be cause for concern.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: August 3, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Friday brought our Market Structure Level another step down. This brings the level to the bottom of the positive range.  For the best positive outcome we would look for it to climb, hold or fall only one more level from which I expect it would climb back into positive territory. If however it would slip two or more levels in one day it would then most likely fall through the transition range a into the negative area in just a few days and most likely bring with it a more significant market decline.  Investors are not expecting a decline. The VIX is in the low teens, the daily changes are small and the news sources are bullish. The catalyst may come from outside normal market parameters as the US has issued a travel alert and closed down 22 embassies for the weekend due to an Al Qaeda threat.  We however remain bullish for Monday and as always move one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

July 31, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Like yesterday, our Market Level took another step down continuing to indicate support for this new NDX rally.  The FED continued held its direction saying the economy continues to improve at a modest pace.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 30, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our Market Level took another step down and that should give more energy to this new NDX rally, now at a new closing high for the year.  We remain fully long. Since the Market Level is still high there remains more time for the rally to continue. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 29, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  After more than two weeks of sitting at its highest level our Market Structure has taken the first step lower. This process can take a couple of weeks and should result in an overall gain for the markets.  We are fully long. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 28, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market .  Small positive bias to this creeping higher market.  We are partially exposed in our aggressive programs.  Market Structure remains at it highest level for over two weeks, somewhat longer than usual. Vix and daily changes are small. There should be more upside prior to any sustained downside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 25, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  No change in our Market Structure.  Weak earnings for Expedia sent that stock down 23% after hours.  FB managed to gain almost 30% for the day on yesterday's news.  Amazon posted a small loss as they plow money into technology.  Unlike most companies they grew their sales which held their stock to a slip instead of a plunge.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 24, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  No change in our Market Structure.  Strong earnings for Facebook and Qualcomm sent the aftermarket higher and should boost the market on Wednesday. The small daily changes along with the VIX in the 13 range makes it easy for the news to have strong influences on market behavior.  More upside to come.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 23, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market .  After the bell Apple earnings beat estimates but revenue outlook fell short.  Still the traders took Apple higher by about 5% helping send the NDX futures higher. This time (for now) we have a news tail wind, rather than a news head wind, that we have seen with prior tech earnings reports.  Market structure remains frozen at the highest level looking good going forward. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 22, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  No change in our Market Structure level which is positive for a continuation of the rally.  The Vix however is now below 13, a level that shows investor complacency and below this level is one that historically has not shown gains. La de da.  The 90 day T bill rate hit zero today.  Free money for the government.  We remain in a deflationary mode.  If there were strong reasons/places for business to invest the rate would not be zero. There is trouble brewing but so far no clear sign of when it will hit.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 21, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We continue to be jousted by unwelcome news.  Over the long term we will get our share of benefits from it but it annoys in the short term. Our program can only read the market's leanings and predisposed position for the next day from a statistical point of view, it can not soothsay.  Our positive Market Structure held firm and another rally should be in the works shortly. The recent continuation of lower revenue reports will in the long run hurt the market and take away from this long extended run higher.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 18, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market .  If we felt somewhat annoyed by Intel earnings sending the NDX a bit lower we are really annoyed by the drop trouble of Microsoft and Google wacking the index after the market closed. Aside from that, things looked promising.  Probabilities were strong and the Market Structure remains very positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 17, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market .  Our probabilities are strong but the question is, will IBM's strong earnings overcome Intel's poor report?  This is a low volatility market and news can more easily influence investors.   Our Market Structure remains at the highest level supporting higher prices going forward.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 16, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure remains at its highest level for another day.  Expect another rally in a few days as our Market Structure level starts to drop.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 15, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure is at its highest level and holding. Once it starts to fall there usually is another spurt higher. The daily changes, with the exception of one day last week, remain low and this is a good sign for continued market upward progress. The UPS downward earnings revision should, at some point, play out in the market ending its upward rampage and the reality that companies need to do more than just lay off workers to show increases in profits. There is very little world-wide top line growth.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 14, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  UPS lowered their earnings estimates for the second quarter.  With brick and mortar stores under great pressure from the online stores this is a nasty shock to the overall economy. They just aren't buying.  Nothing tells us how the US..(.world) economy is doing as much as looking at UPS earnings.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 11, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Bernanke comments gave the market permission to make new highs, but it did little to lower interest rates.  Still rates are historically low and with our Market Structure level still very positive I expect more gains over the coming week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 10, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short:32.5%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.   We are partially short in two of our programs and in the money market with the other two.  My implementation of the Market Structure into our programs is almost complete and I am currently working on finding the proper amount of exposure for the programs.  As a market model builder I must balance short term and long term risk against short term and long term gains. In this regard we are holding the risk/exposure levels for each of our programs to our stated values.  The markets could be choppy on Thursday as the indexes may stretch to meet or top recent highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 9, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Program has turned neutral, primary market direction is higher intermediate term.  I still expect new highs next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 8, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 65%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Probabilities are strong for a small down day on Tuesday.  The NDX extended its up streak to nine days by gaining a tenth of a percent at the close.  Earnings season starts and the games will be played in favor of the Multinationals. Estimates have come down to a level where most companies will be able to surpass them by a tiny amount, but we shall see.  My expectations are for new highs by next week after a lull.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 5, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Nice rally this past week.  The RUT is at new all time highs.  Our Market structure continues to call for more upside and it has not disappointed us.  Our structure level remains in the middle of the positive zone.  The NDX has moved higher each of the past eight days.   The recent  price action  with small daily changes is a positive that could extend the recent gains, but the large drop in June could have some ramifications that carry over, most likely into the first few days of the coming week.  I don't see a strong negative, just following our signals to be cautious. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 3, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our probabilities remain positive.  We had a string of days with minor changes. This is conducive to a continuation of the up-trend.  We retain our long position. The market currently has a positive slant as it shook off the negative direction of the European indexes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 2, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our probabilities turned very strong to the upside.  Tuesday was a perfect neutral day with little change and could be all the pause that is required for another run higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: July 1, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The strong early rally slipped significantly by the close.  We have moved all accounts into the money market for Tuesday as our signals flattened and our anticipatory trend turned neutral.  Our Market Structure level climbed to the center of the positive range. So most likely we will continue on to test or make new highs in the indexes prior to any strong fall. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 28, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX managed to hold slightly positive on Friday, even as the S&P, NYSE and DOW slipped. Our Anticipatory trend turned positive as the Market Structure held firm near the lower level of the positive range. The level has remained positive all of this year and I expect that all pull backs will be minimal until the market level falls through the transition zone into negative territory.  We should have a good chance for continued up side through the coming week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 27, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 65%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. We continue to look for a pull back and have held our positions.  Nothing has changed from yesterday. Most news was neutral.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 26, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 65%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  A big thanks to one of our readers who alerted us to a typo in our comments showing our 2x fund as a 3x fund, is has been corrected to a 2x fund (Rydex does not have a 3x fund).  Anticipatory trend flattened and other components have moved to the negative side.  Our Market Structure remains positive and calls for more longer term upside, but as I mentioned last Thursday we should expect a sell off by the end of this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 25, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our readings are little changed, but our conservative programs have turned long.  Our Market Structure remains in the lower levels of the positive range. It has been in a positive range since the end of September. Our Anticipatory trend is positive so we should have some more upside.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 24, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money Market.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  China's slowdown and market drop caused the problems for the US markets on Monday.  The US markets did close well off their lows of the day.  We trimmed our exposure in our primary program and moved out of the market with our more conservative programs. Overall we still have a positive Market Structure reading.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 21, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Rough week for the markets, we had mixed results with two winners and two losers all under 1% change.  The psychology seems to be more negative than positive adding pressure to Monday's opening.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 20, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 67.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  60% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Plunging markets for a second day seemingly responding to the FED announcement, but it really was a FED confirmation as the withdrawal time table was expected.  Our Market Structure remains positive and falling, appropriate for a short rally.  The S&P has lost 4% over the past two days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 19, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Fed laid out a plan to reduce bond purchases and the market fell.  Investors want it both ways, a booming economy and continued stimulus.  Our Market structure is positive and climbing which means it is most likely gaining potential for another rally, but it may be down the road some as down days breed more down days and it looks like another sell off is brewing for the middle to latter part of  next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 18, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Another strong pre Fed rally.  Fed day could go a slight bit higher, but signal is mixed. Follow through on the day after the Fed meets is generally higher but the early run-up will keep that under pressure.  I continue to blend the market structure into the program as I reduce the overall number of variables to ensure the predictive capabilities.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 17, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our market structure continues to expect more upside over the following week, but the Fed could put a wrinkle in it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 14, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our market structure continues to hold in positive territory telling us there should soon be more upside.  The market structure has been very reliable this year and has a strong 20 year track record. I worked on integrating both the market structure and market level direction into our programs but it will take a bit longer to fully implement. Our goal is always to achieve the maximum amount of gain with the least amount of risk. As we are our own asset class and not correlated to the markets we will have plus and minus variations, the program is however working within acceptable designed risk levels. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 13, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our Market Structure level continues to climb telling us there is more rally to come over the next week or so.  Ours is a long term model. Going both long and short makes us our own asset class, and being an independent asset class we have our own periods of gains and losses that do not correlate to the market's direction. We prefer the gains, but during the down turns we work extra hard to keep them to a minimum and to resume our normal positive posture.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 12, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our Market Structure climbed today,  the structure has managed to stay in positive territory since November.  This long rally may still have another push higher left in it  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 11, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Bad day for us, but the added volatility will make the market easier to read.  Our Market Structure, though still positive, is at a level not seen since last October and November. Another drop in this level will mean a longer term down spin. Were the level to drop all the way into negative territory we would see more trades from a short position and expect serious deterioration in the market indexes. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 10, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:63.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Markets closed flat.  Little change for most of our components.  Apple unveiled a new operating system and now has a Pandora like music program inside I-tunes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 7, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We find the market in an interesting position. Our Market structure is now at the lower level of the positive area. If the level falls from here it moves into the transition area where the market stalls and behaves in a more erratic manner. From there it could sink into the negative zone where the primary trend is down. Watch closely as next week could define the next major direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 6, 2013...Sorry late posting.

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal is mixed with our conservative programs long and aggressive programs neutral.  The big influence for Friday will be the jobs report. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 5, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long 63.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Long  50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal is neutral. Wednesday's move appears to be motivated by the Asian and European downturn.  Traders realize the market has gone up too much but the daily changes don't signal a large drop. Our Market structure remains positive and our anticipatory trend remains long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 4, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Greatly improved signal and probabilities point to higher day for Wednesday. Our anticipatory trend is now long. Our Market Structure is high and declining, very positive for the near term. In response we increased our positive market exposure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 3, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Our signal remains long but lost more strength.  The anticipatory trend has flattened. The market has had a record breaking string of gains on Tuesdays, we shall see if it continues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 31, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:63.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We once again reversed our aggressive positions. The important item of note for us in Fridays action was the VIX closing at 16.3.  The Vix has closed lower than this 95% of the time in 2013. Higher Vix levels add emotion to the market, making it easier to read and increasing the frequency of our trades.  The current level of the Vix is still much below the average Vix over the past 20 years.  Only a moderate "long" signal with the possibility of negative carryover from Friday's down market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 30, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We reversed our position in our aggressive programs.  Although the market structure remains strong some weakness is showing.  This could be topping action.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 29, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:63.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We stayed long but reduced our exposure.  Still no change that we can read in the overall trend. Both our anticipatory trend and the longer term Market structure remain positive.  The ten year note interest rates have crept up but this in itself is not inflationary in fact, it has caused our T-Index (which continues to range well below -400) to go more negative, indicating a strong deflationary mode. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 28, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Market came off of its highs on Tuesday and I looks like it could easily retest those highs on Wednesday. We have moved long. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 24, 2013

Current position for Tuesday: Retirement program is short 20% Rydex inverse NDX 1x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  The lower volatility has reduced the frequency of our trades resulting in less overall market exposure. Prior to this drop in volatility, the condition has happened only three other times during the past twenty years.  To compensate for this I am adding additional high reliability trades to meet our exposure targets during these low volatility time periods.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 23 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. I do not expect to see this recent drop continue much further. Our Market Structure remains very positive which tells us there should be more new highs to come. We do however have a short signal for Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 22, 2013

Current position for Thursday: Retirement program is short 20% Rydex inverse NDX 1x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  The early predisposed upward direction of the markets were over run by skittish traders sending the markets lower. Our signal moved us to the sidelines. Market structure remains positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 21, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a strong signal and have moved fully long. Last few market days have been very quiet. Money also seems to be flowing into the markets from the exodus in gold. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 20, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Are we in a blow off phase or is the current upswing a gift to the buy and hold population?  Does the recent downturn in the Utility index mean a disaster is coming?  So far I see the upturn as a gift and the utility downturn a second gift where cash is flowing out of safer investments into less safe investments. Caution is always called for as the end of the run can come quickly.  So far price movements are small and our Market Structure is positive so if you are holding, enjoy the ride. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 17, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  There is no real change in the market conditions other than each day the market goes higher it increases its PE ratio and makes it more susceptible to a decline.  This is not an immediate problem as the market structure remains positive and holding.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 16, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Cisco's earnings carried the tech heavy NDX throughout the day but could not make it to the close. Our technicals are still positive but they can't carry the market by themselves forever. Still our market structure remains sound.  Our more cautious approach has slowed us down the past few months, but we do not take high risk trades and the only way to make large returns with small draw downs is to be exceptionally careful.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 15, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our market structure stepped down a level and probabilities look strong as we moved back to our fully long position. Continuing small daily changes call for an extension of this rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 14, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Apple held the NDX from its full upside potential, but overall the indexes did well.  We have a flat signal for Wednesday. Our Market structure level gained, telling us there is more upside soon to come.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 13, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX fluttered about the unchanged mark most of the day and closed slightly positive.  We remain fully long for Tuesday.  Market structure is high and descending, this is the appropriate behavior for a continuation of the rally.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 10, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We increased our long exposure in all programs for Monday.  The probabilities look very good for the first time in a number of weeks.  Outlook over the near time remains positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 9, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.    We have mixed readings and our probabilities are leaning long with a negative tone to the amplitudes.  Our Market Structure remains positive and one step from the maximum level, telling us there should soon be a continuation of the up-side.  The cost cutting in the wake of shrinking revenue is increasing earnings overall and that has not gone unnoticed. The S&P earnings estimates have been raised and this is helping to push up stocks.  Like always there will be an overshoot and correction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 8, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program, Long/money market program, and Hot money program are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The rally continued, picking up the laggard indexes during the last minutes of trading. If this is money leaving bonds for stocks we should see some evidence of it in the bond yield, but we do not.  Technically the small daily changes and positive market structure are enough to keep the market climbing. The small daily changes show that emotions are in check, a big positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 7, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The techs were a little weak, but the rest of the market roared on for Tuesday.  The market is following an upward path that  appears calm but contains higher risks than I like to take.  And even though we trade one day at a time we have a long term model for risk and reward and trade only in the lower risk zones. With the market Structure in very positive territory the rally should continue, though a short pause is expected at any time during this overbought period.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 6, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 67.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long:50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a minor long signal.  The Market Structure level has started to descend and that usually reflects more buying into the market. The markets have not had much in the way of bad news to worry about.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 3, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Nothing has changed. An overbought short term and positive longer term. Our program only trades when the risks are low relative to potential gains for the next day. Currently risks are higher than the potential for gain. Soon the reverse will be true and we will be back in. We do not need for the market to go up to make a profit.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 2, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market continues to climb and make the new highs we have been speaking about. Although the longer term picture is positive and the market action is well behaved, our recent signals have been neutral at best, indicating the possibility of a danger that is not obvious.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 1, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market remains  overbought short term, and the the Market Structure Level has climbed to one step from the highest position. Once the level starts to descend there should be another push to new highs for the indexes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 30, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  My assessment is that the market is overbought short term, but the Market Structure remains positive and that can support the market.  A small pull back would be reasonable. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 29, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Monday the NDX hit a new one year closing high, finally getting some help from AAPL. Our signal is mixed and we stayed in the money market.  The market seems to be holding to our market structure theory and making new highs, but showing more strength during the normal pause and pullback days. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 26, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level is holding and very positive.  The market held up pretty well in the face of more proof of revenue stagnation. It looks like it still has some juice left to propel it higher over the near future.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 25 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.    Once again our market structure level climbed, it can max out within the next two days if it continues its climb.  The big name earnings and guidance after the close sent most of those stocks lower, AMZN off -2.5%, SBUX off -3%, EXPE off -5%.   Soros filed a disclosure stating a 7.9% interest in JCP sending the stock up over +6.5% after the close.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 24, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure continues to build.  Since the market generally climbs when the structure level drops, the higher the market structure level can reach, the further the rally can carry. Currently it is midway in the positive area so there should be enough fuel to send the market higher.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 23, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long:80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Apple beat on both earnings and revenue. This pushed Apple up about 5% in the after market.  With it being about 15% of the NDX it should carry push the NDX higher. Every once in a while our signal splits directions between our aggressive and conservative programs. Wednesday will be one of those days with our aggressive programs partially short and our conservative programs fully long. This does not happen very often, but we see it a few times a year. Our Market structure remains positive and the level is holding. The rally looks like it has more to go.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 22, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program, Long/money market program, and Hot money program are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.    After hours NetFlix jumped 24% on an earnings beat. Our Market Structure level climbed, indicating that the life of this rally will most likely be extended.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 19, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We had a difficult week, and it happens from time to time. Our signals are flat and we moved fully into the money market. Our market structure is positive, but the level fell again and is once again very close to where it can quickly transition into a negative direction market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 18, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program, Long/money market program, and Hot money program are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The market as showed strong negative action three of the last four days with an increase in the size of the daily price change.  We like to see the intermediate term trend rising with a pull back in the short term trend, but now we have a pull back in both. Our market structure has not confirmed a major down turn as it has started to rise off the lower level within the positive area, this type of building is more in line with a soon-to-come run higher rather than a rout, but a single day rise in the structure level makes it too soon to tell. Our anticipatory trend is neutral so overall the outlook for Friday is neutral to negative, but the severity of the decline coming out of a very calm environment could easily give way to a positive reaction. Our signal is flat and so we moved to the sidelines. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 17, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long:40% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a minor long signal and have reduced our market exposure by half for Thursday.  Our positive market structure remains intact but a new element of fear has crept into the market place.  The new focus is terrorism inside the US borders.  Boston, ricin and North Korea, have combined to frighten investors out of stocks.  This type of problem is harder to deal with as there are many news stories and many are often conflicting.  Once investors become numb to this type of news the market will again move based on its normal forces. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 16, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We held our position going into Wednesday.  Probabilities remain strong to the up-side. Money flow, which was negative for last Friday and Monday, turned positive for Tuesday and Wednesday, will go neutral for Thursday, and negative for next Friday and Monday.  Our market structure is now in the lower portion of the positive area. From this level it could easily slip into the transition zone and eventually go negative, a process that can play out in a week or two.  If we get a spike higher I would expect it to mark the end of this long climb up from the November lows. (Talking NDX).  If the daily market changes once again become small, and our structure returns to a higher level we could see yet another move to new highs extending the rally by one or two months. My expectation at this time is that we get a sharp move higher and then the market makes a more significant pull back.  We will however, continue to run our program daily, and follow its directions for the following day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 15, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Threats of gold being forced on the market by failing European countries sent the metal down 9%.  When this type of thing happens, margined traders have to sell other holdings to meet margin calls, and that often involves stocks. While this can weigh on the market for a number of days I expect it to be over quickly.  Across the board, oil, metals and agriculture fell. Good news for our local economy and good news for US stocks which will have lowered material costs. The dollar should go higher (not great for stocks), but lower material prices should help everything from cars, to home building, to restaurants. It should cut airline ticket prices for the summer and boost hotel room sales. We increased our positions in our aggressive programs and held our positions in our conservative programs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 12, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Our probabilities are very strong to the upside for Monday despite an expected negative money flow. The market recovered nicely from an early drop Friday indicating good resilience. The probabilities may be overly optimistic, but our anticipatory trend is positive and the market continues to have an upward bias.  New intermediate term highs are very close for the NDX and Monday could easily be the day that they are reached.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 11, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program, Long/money market program, and Hot money program are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  New highs for the S&P with the NDX almost zero changed.  Our signal is flat, money flow is negative and I expect little change for Friday's markets.  I believe that the NDX will also make new highs, most likely next week.  Watch the size of the daily changes, small changes favor a continuation of the rally.  Aftermarket is slightly higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 10, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Very strong market Wednesday, especially the NDX.  As I mentioned yesterday the push to new intermediate term highs for the NDX looked very likely. Closing high 2864 and Intraday high 2871,  most likely the intraday high will be broken on Thursday.  Going into Friday we may see some selling or at least flattening.  Money flow turns negative for Friday and remains negative into Monday. Our Market Structure is still in the positive area and the level is falling (which is all good).  If the level continues to decline over the next few weeks the market structure will turn negative and most of the trades should then be made from the sell side.  The nearly 2% gain in the NDX was the largest since the first day of the year.  Large daily moves eventually lead to a market decline as they can signify a blow-off or at least over enthusiasm on the part of the traders.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 9, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 63.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Very positive market action on Tuesday.  Our signal is strong. This could be the start of the push to new intermediate term highs on the NDX which is having a difficult time surpassing the highs of last year. Our market structure is near it high and the level is falling,  anticipatory trend is up.  Money flow is positive.  All indicators seem poised for more upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 8, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.    The NDX shows only a 1.5% gain since January 2, and has traded in a very narrow range.  From our measurements the potential for more upside remains but it has yet to show itself. For Tuesday we have  some minor down side expectations.  Both the NDX and the Dow closed on their highs, this usually means an excess of enthusiasm and  that usually leads to a pull back.  JC Penny gave up on Ron Johnson, but took way to long to make that decision.  This means the board is also at fault, which won't help the company going forward.  With the stock down in the aftermarket the company is selling at about 1 x book value.  It won't be an easy turn around, watch for revenue stabilization. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 5, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100%  Money market .  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The employment numbers came out far worse than anticipated, dropping the NDX over 1.8%, then followed by a 1% recovery. This left the market down, but not crushed.   Unfortunately we can not forecast the news, we can only detect the predisposed market condition.  For Monday that condition is mixed and leaning slightly to the up side.  The poor jobs report just reinforces what we already knew, Corporate America and the local US economy are on two separate tracks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 4, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have moved into a fully long position.  The uptrend appears to be intact, our Market Structure level is high and has resumed it descent while money flow has turned positive.  This should sustain the up trend going into Friday.  Probabilities are good but not great and the aftermarket is neutral to slightly lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 3, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our probabilities are leaning to the downside and the North Korea trouble will most likely continue.  North Korea is bad for Samsung and that may be good for Apple.  What's good for Apple is good for the NDX so the down side on the NDX may not be a severe as for the other indexes.  From our Market structure perspective and from the small daily changes we have experienced in the indexes I see more up-side and new highs continuing for awhile, but give it a day or two to start back up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 2, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.   The strong overnight European market and large gain in factory orders positively influenced the US markets on Tuesday. Wednesday's probabilities lean long but amplitudes favor the down side. We moved some of our programs into a short position for Wednesday. The small change moves continue to support the longer term upside expectations along with our, still very strong, market structure level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: April 1, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signals are flat, our Market Structure level is flat and probabilities are slightly negative.  Money flow is now neutral. Correction on the March 28th comments, it should have read "money flow does not turn positive till Wednesday" (not Tuesday). I believe the drop in the RUT was overdone and that index has a better chance to recover on Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 28, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  My apologies for leaving my office yesterday without posting.  I wrote it, forgot to post it. We closed out our long positions at the close today and moved all programs fully into the money market.  The money flow has turned negative and does not turn positive until Tuesday. Our signals are flat, our Market Structure level is flat and probabilities are slightly negative.  I expect a small pull back, maybe two days long, then another attempt to go higher. The European problems will not just go away and the market does not seem to have enough energy to fully run over them and I expect the problems will eventually run over the market, perhaps sometime around mid April.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 27, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Overnight problems in Europe sent the European indexes down hard.  This pushed all US indexes lower at the open. By the close our NDX had recovered ending with a small gain and poised to resume the assault on recent previous highs.  Our Market Structure level fell again, a positive sign for Thursday. Money flow remains neutral.  Our Anticipatory trend is positive and there is a very strong probability of the markets hitting new highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 26, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This is our first leveraged long trade in over two weeks.  Today the Market structure level came off the highest rung signaling another up-leg. This may not last very long and may not be very powerful, coming after a long, nearly continuous, rise since November, but we might expect about a 2% jump to new highs over the next couple of weeks.  All our signals turned positive and the probabilities are strong. The expected amplitudes are still small as the low VIX is reflecting low levels of both fear and enthusiasm.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 25, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our money flow indicator turned neutral.  Our market structure remains poised at the highest level and unchanged. Tuesday could go either way with a slight tilt towards the upside based mostly on the late rally and carryover into the after-market.  A better transaction should present itself over the next few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 22, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  With our Market structure level unchanged and the money flow turning negative our signal has moved to the short side.  This is the first position we have taken in our Primary and Hot money programs in over a week.  This past week we saw the NDX move up an almost too-small-to-measure amount. The market is creeping along and visible volume continues to dry up.  Probabilities favor a lower Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 21, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Once again no change in our position.  Overall we have improved money flow for Friday and the 10% jump in the VIX improves the odds of an up day.  Together they could stop the slow bleeding the market has showed us this week.  Still, earnings revenue continues to disappoint, it is a cloud over the market, but companies that have excess cash can trim down, while buying back their stock to maintain or even improve their earnings per share growth rate.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 20, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We held our mostly-money-market position for Thursday.  The rally did seem to start on Wednesday, but on closer look I expect a portion of Wednesday's gains to be given back on Thursday. The Market structure level remains flat but still poised for more upside, most likely as the level falls. The Vix pulled back again and the small change market may just continue to creep along. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 19, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The rally at the close has changed our forecast from somewhat negative to somewhat positive. Our Market structure has climbed to the highest level which translates to mean that the market should now have enough "fuel" to make another move higher by a few percent. Normally we would wait for the Structure level to start to drop to signal the start of the market climb but we could see a rally start on Wednesday since we have seen a three day decline in prices. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 18, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal remains neutral.  The Cyprus scare faded away and the small daily changes continued.  This is a very strong market, money flow is positive for Tuesday and then turns neutral to negative through March.  This may not have much of an effect based on the strength of the Market. Another up leg could start very soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 16, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal is neutral. The small daily changes continue fueling investor confidence supporting a continuation of the long running rally.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 14, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The Dow made its tenth up day in a row matching the 1996 accomplishment.  Can it go higher? Certainly. This is a small daily change environment and continued up-days are possible.  The Dow and the NDX are reflecting  two different markets.  The NDX has gone up 1% since Valentines day while the Dow has gone up 4%. We still have a positive view of cash flow for Friday but our aggressive signals and probabilities are very negative. Because of the nonstop climb we should expect some traders to lighten up going into the weekend.  Our market structure is very positive and holding so I expect that there will be yet another another move higher, soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 13, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal is neutral with a neutral money flow.  With so little changed from yesterday there is not much to go on.  Small change markets generally edge higher over the longer term as there is little fear to dissuade investors. The Dow made its 9th consecutive high.  If we look back 20 years we find that in 1996 it managed to make 10 in a row, and ten days after that high the Dow was another 2.7% higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: March 12, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal is neutral with a positive money flow. The market structure level has climbed, good news for more upside to come, but generally signaling a pause for the next day.  I continue to expect a muted rally going up to the middle of next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 11, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The Vix has fallen below 12,  low VIX markets produce smaller daily changes about half the size of normal daily changes.  In low VIX markets you want to trade opposite the direction of the VIX so if the VIX is low and falling it is good to be long.  The market is probably not quite as strong as our signal suggests and that can be seen in the so-so probabilities. Looking forward we find our money flow indicators get stronger starting Wednesday with four of the following five days positive.  That is followed by a more negative series through the first of April. With this in mind we may see a short term market top prior to the middle of next week. Our Market structure remains positive and until that weakens we should be able to continue higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 9, 2013

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signals are flat and the probabilities look balanced.  The market has hit new highs and crept higher. I believe there is still another rally to come but now a pause. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 7, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100%  Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With the exception of our money flow indicator Friday is looking very positive and should mean more new highs.  The longer term fundamentals are not as glossy.  Even though we are seeing positive earnings growth we continue to see revenue decline.  A revenue decline translates to greater competition for sales and higher advertising expenses.  This means more layoffs adding to the unemployed and decreasing demand for goods, a terrible circle that will end badly.  Our Market structure remains at a high level telling us there should be more upside to the market prior to a correction, but when our market structure goes negative, and it will, we may be in for greater downside then we have seen since the start of the recovery.  Under current economic conditions I do not expect for Friday's job figures to be any better than OK.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 6, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The structure level is climbing, indicating that another leg higher is likely. This should start soon, perhaps after a down day or two and when we find that the various market components are aligned. For now I am looking for another day of pause.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 5, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Dow hit a new all time high.  Our Market structure remains positive for Wednesday but our signals have turned neutral and we have moved to the sidelines.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 4, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex  NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:  100%  Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long:  80% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  The markets recovered from the early downturn on Monday.  Our Market structure level remained positive and moving lower, our Anticipatory trend is positive. Money flow is positive. Both aggressive and conservative signals are positive. Our probabilities and amplitudes are positive.  Unless we have some exceptionally  bad news we should see the market gain ground on Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: March 1, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Short:  50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long:  80% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  More cross-currents.  Money flow continues to be negative for Monday along with our primary signal.  Conservative signals and the partial drop in Market level calls for more upside. I expect a pause Monday, with a continuation of the rally later in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 28, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market made another mad dash at the close and again the direction was lower.  This type of trader game will end when enough traders get burned in a turn-around and stop playing.  Our Market structure level held steady, our Anticipatory trend is neutral.  Our money flow indicators are negative for Friday and Monday.  This would suggest a pause, then a  continuation of the rally between Tuesday and Thursday and perhaps making it to the highs on Wednesday or Thursday.  With a money market signal for tomorrow I expect a negative bias, but too close to call.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 27, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100%  in the money market    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% in the money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market lost a third of its gain during the last fifteen minutes of trading.  The pull back should help the market to extend Wednesday's gain, but the skittish nature of the market behavior does not inspire confidence in either direction. The Market structure level continues to decline as the structure remains in the positive zone.  This is both short and longer term positive. The Anticipatory trend remains positive. This would suggest that the market will nudge its way up to the recent highs going into next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 26, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our indicators are aligned for the first time in a number of weeks.  The Market structure is positive and descending which should provide fuel for another rally. Anticipatory trend is positive.  I expect to see the markets approach the recent highs over the next few days. Most important news of the day is the Case-Shiller report on housing prices which seemed to have turned the corner.  This means jobs and with jobs comes an improvement in the economy.  Though the news continues to be filled with companies reducing there forward looking estimates, a recovery in the housing market would mean a broad based recovery.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 25, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is Short:  50% Inverse Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short:  20% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  The early gain slipped into a loss and accelerated at the close. The frustrating news for us was the late plunge changed the market dynamics enough to change our signal... after we made the trade. This does happen occasionally and is never welcome.  It also results in a less reliable signal either way. Both the NDX and the RUT closed on the low of the day often indicating that the emotions have reached an oversold pitch. Still overall we are only partially exposed for Tuesday. The market structure level is positive and remains high but unchanged, which is long term positive and near term cautious.  AutoDesk earnings were good but projections bad, which could have a negative influence on the tech sector on Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 22, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is Long:  50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short:  20% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  More cross currents in the market place.  Our market structure remains at a high positive level but the level is steady which usually means a pause. Our signals are mixed with some programs long and one short. The NDX and RUT closed at the high of the day usually meaning there is an excessive amount of enthusiasm so a pullback would not be unreasonable.  Verdict: Could be a soft Monday but new highs should be coming soon.  Over the long term the various components of market behavior move in and out of sync with each other when they are aligned they tend to drive the market direction, when they are not aligned the news has more sway.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 21, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  This is a market filled with mixed signals. The extra volatility over the past few days is welcome as it provides our program with larger bits of information to digest.  The bigger the moves, the more fear and greed comes into play, and the easier the market is to read.  From our market structure point of view our structure level is high, but has started to descend, a very positive market sign. This is especially true with this market being mostly oversold.  Also our Anticipatory trend turned long, the first time in nine days. On the other hand our raw signal is short, but colliding with the above conditions did not give me enough data points to feel confident in the direction.  The recent increased volatility should give us plenty of opportunity to make more secure transactions with less risk. The S&P 1500 level and the NDX 2700 level could act as support to any Friday decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 20, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The structure level continues to hold level.  Out signal vacillated near the close and we chose to move into the money market as the safest position. The Retirement program and Long/money market programs have less time restraints and were stable.  The main signal did lean lower at the close.  Martin Zweig passed away on Monday.  Zweig wrote "Winning on Wall Street", called the crash of 1987 on TV a less than a week in advance, ran a hedge fund, and wrote a popular newsletter for many years. He was well respected.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 19, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex 2x NDX fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our market structure remains at the highest level and holding.  This should result in a flat market until the level starts to drop, which normally would push the indexes higher.  That move is expected later this week or early next.  Our more aggressive programs have increased their upside exposure.  Wonder why AAPL is not buying up companies?  One reason is its low PE ratio.  It is counter productive to buy a high PE ratio company when your company has a low PE ratio. If a company with a PE of 10 buys a company with a PE of 20 they are  paying $2  for what becomes $1 in their own market value.  This is simplistic but has some merit.  More often we will see a high PE company buy up a lower PE company and pay for it with stock.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 15, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is actually  50% Rydex 2x NDX fund. (Incorrectly posted as 100% Money market earlier).  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  Another mixed signal day for Monday.  Normally the NDX leads the S&P both on the upside and to the downside. This year the NDX is lagging the S&P to the upside, mostly due to AAPL stock.  A look at the NDX daily range shows the average range percent change, (high-low)/low hit a 20 year low and I only went back 20 years. These small daily range changes, like small daily market changes are conducive to positive market behavior. Once again our market structure has reached an extreme positive level and should fuel the markets to another new 2013 high.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 14, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX  2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is Short:  100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short:  20% Rydex Inverse NDX fund. Interesting development very short term.  Our signals have gone very negative but longer term the market structure is very positive.  It looks like a one or two day correction will ensue.  Our probabilities are rather one sided and negative on this one.  Home equity lines of credit are becoming freely available again to those with enough equity in their home.  It appears that the housing market has started to improve to a point where the banks are not fearful, so they are once again ready to put their money to work. This mean more cash for the consumer, but do not expect them to spend it until they feel secure.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 13, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX fund.  This is the second mixed signal day this month, an indication of a less cohesive mindset in the investing community. Still, the market structure is strong, and although the ride might be bumpy, the short term direction should continue to be higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 12, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signal is flat but our probabilities for the NDX are leaning to the upside. Our market structure is still strong and I expect that another surge higher should begin soon. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 11, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program, Long/money market program and Hot money programs are 100% money market.   Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Netflix once again shows excellent forward thinking. Their new made for download series "House of cards" is a success, but how could it not be.  Following HBO and Amazon's lead they are producing content. And even better than HBO and Amazon they have a complete data base of people likes and dislikes. Actors, movies, length of show, director, etc.  Add available cost information, shake, and with a bit of luck, and a lot of skill and hard work the perfect program falls out.  This is just an observation and I don't own the stock or am I recommending it. Our market structure remains strong and I expect the uptrend to continue soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 9, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.    When you do long term investing "one day at a time", as we do, you need to remember to look at the bigger picture.   The NDX made new 2013 highs but is still below the March of 2012 highs. The S&P was more steady in its climb, not carrying as much weight from the falling Apple.  Our Market Structure called the break out to the upside well before it happened, even as the market was overbought by many measures. The structure is still very positive but the level is flat and most of the gains come on the day after the level drops. There could be more pressure on the market this coming week starting Tuesday as our money flow calculations are looking negative.  We posted a new long term forecast last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 7, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Every once in a while we get opposing signals between our programs. This is the first time in many months that the programs were in opposition.  This can happen because some of the programs use different algorithms for analysis. It does suggest that there is a greater than normal amount of uncertainty in the market place.  We posted a new long term forecast last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 6, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  We moved back into the NDX from the S&P on February 1. The NDX generally tracks better than the S&P but in January Apple (being a large component) had caused some aberrations which now seem to have smoothed out.  For Thursday we reduced our exposure but maintained a long position. A look at the probability chart shows the negative amplitudes as larger than the positive ones adding to the risk. We posted a new long term forecast last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 5, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Without another large dip from Europe money came back into the US markets.  We had some chaotic trading the past few days and with no major specific events to warrant them I expect the large swings subside. We posted a new long term forecast last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 4, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Overseas markets fell substantially overnight sending the US markets lower. With a lack of good news coming from the US both the US and European markets continued lower with the DAX down 2.5% and the CAC40 off 3%.  Still the market structure remains positive, and now climbing.  Our trades have been out of sync for three days and hopefully the large recent market moves will provide the data for us to quickly get back to normal.   We posted a new long term forecast last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: February 1, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Lots of positive news on Friday kicked the markets higher.  Markets should continue the rally into Monday.  All components are positive including our Anticipatory trend, probabilities are strong but expected amplitudes remain on the low side.   We posted a new long term forecast yesterday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 31, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is Short:  50% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 fund.  Although the longer term market structure points to a continuation of the uptrend the narrower picture for Friday is negative.  We have decreased our overall exposure and have gone short. The small moves are not conducive to making strong profits, so we will have to be patient. We have posted a new long term forecast.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 30, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  Once again we have gone fully long.  The S&P bounced off the 1500 level and I expect that it will continue to go higher on Thursday.  But this rally is getting old and the gains should be small.  Our probabilities look good.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 29, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Our market level has flattened, but remains firmly positive.  Our probabilities are leaning slightly negative.  Could be time for a test back to the 1500 level on the S&P.  The FED makes an announcement at 2:15 PM Eastern time.  With a flat signal and a FED announcement the best position is in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 28, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 63.5% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  The market remains in good shape to move higher, but the recent run up in the indexes is causing some concern for investors, this should be resolved to the upside, but progress may continue to be in small steps over time. The little pull back in the S&P gives that index a chance to go higher as it needed at least a one day decline from its up hill trek.  We slightly trimmed our position in our two more conservative programs.  AAPL finally had a good day and the ongoing decline in that stock should at least flatten or turn up, taking some of the drag off the NDX.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 25, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  The market structure level as started its decline. This should enable the NDX index to work itself higher. Probabilities are good, but expected amplitudes are small.  We are long in all accounts and leveraged in most. On the negative side the S&P has completed its 8th straight gain, but since they were small gains that could continue.  The NDX has a clearer path higher, with the Apple worry out of the way it should be time for catch up with the other indexes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 24, 2013

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% money market.  Discipline.  I would rather be in the market but we have gotten money market signals all week, so we wait on the sidelines. Apple and Netflix  remind us of why we trade indexes using statistics rather than individual companies. So we have a company who's Iphone sales increased 29% year over year. Ipad sales up over 48% year over year. China Iphone sales doubled year over year. 38.6% gross margins exceeding estimates. A PE ratio currently at about half the average SP value (when you adjust for Apples cash hoard).  On this news the stock falls 12%. And Netflix worth 42% more today than yesterday.  This is not what I call investing, we do investing as a continuous methodical process of increasing the value of your holdings over time though the daily application of the results of our research. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 23, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  All programs 100% money market.  Eyes may have been on AAPL, but it was NFLX whose earnings win sent the stock up 25% in the aftermarket. Apple earnings beat estimates while revenue slightly missed.  This translates to better than expected profit margins. Apple stock slipped initially in the after market about -6%.  This should put everyone at ease, and after the smoke clears, allow the markets, especially the NDX, to climb.  Most likely we are looking at Friday or Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 22, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Wednesday should be Apple earnings release day.  The tech heavy NDX has trailed almost every other index the past week or so as investors fear the worst from Apple. After the earnings release, good or bad the NDX should play catch-up. Good earnings should cause a jump on Thursday, bad earnings should delay the jump by one or two days. Either way I see this market going higher. For now we remain in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 18, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Slow week with small daily moves, yet our aggressive programs did well with out Hot money program now up +7.2% in 2013. And Tuesday will be the fourth day this year that the hot money program will rest in the money market keeping risk at a reasonable level.  Our market structure level remains at the highest point, poised to kick off another rally but it has stayed there, just holding, the last five trading days. I am waiting to see it start to descend signifying the beginnings of the move. I believe the market is looking for a catalyst and that would most likely be Apple's earnings, good or bad. The NDX index is the same as it was OCT 18 while AAPL is down. 20%. So I don't think the markets will need much encouragement to pop after the Apple news. Still we take it one day at a time and do not second guess our signals.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 17, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  It was a good size up-day considering the low Vix.  We trimmed back to underweight but remained overall long.  Our market structure remains at the highest level, while the anticipatory trend stayed neutral. This is inline with topping action prior to another leg higher.  Still, Apple's earnings and outlook could have a major impact on the markets, either way, next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 16, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our signal backed off from its leveraged long position at the close, but that did not have much of an effect on the probabilities which are still very strong. The market structure remains at the highest positive level and the market most likely will not start its run higher until the level starts to drop.  Historically it could be one day or as long as two weeks.  Bank earnings have been coming in strong but the banks continue to be concerned about revenue growth. The recovery remains slow and the markets may pay the price as the payroll tax increase starts to bite.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 15, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  From my perspective another rally is no more than a couple of days away. Our market structure is fully positive and holding. As the level falls capital should be released into the market stimulating prices to move higher. Perhaps on a collision course is the Apple earnings report, due out on January 23 only six day away. Apple is about 15% of the NDX indices weight, enough to drive the index.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 14, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our market structure is now fully positive.  This is the best level to start an upside run and if all goes well it will add a few percent to the indexes prior to any correction.  We should see this move start this week and it could be as early as Tuesday.  Once again bad news at AAPL drove the stock lower. The good news is that AAPL is now a smaller part of the NDX index and not as influential.  With only a 3.5% drop in AAPL on very bad news tells me the news had been leaked a lot earlier, a good reason not to trade individual stocks.  If I am correct AAPL should start to recover very soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 11, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market. Our positive market structure is holding along with our Anticipatory trend which entered its 5th day of staying neutral.  With the VIX below 14 and most of the scary news out of the way this sluggish topping pattern should continue. Corporate earnings will probably show slow growth or slight declines. Not much to go on, but our probabilities are positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 10, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is Short:  100% Rydex Inverse S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market. Our positive and climbing market structure presents a challenge for Friday and perhaps the next few days. From a market structure point of view there is now enough market potential to fuel a good sized rally. The very negative signal for Friday (under these conditions) is telling us we could have a sharp step down for one or two days and then a continuation to the up-side. This is a more stressful situation as the most stress free conditions have both the signal and the market structure in the same direction. Probabilities also favor the down side.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 9, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market. Our positive market structure continues to build.  As the structure level builds, it gains potential for a rally, but during the building period the market has a tendency to slip. So I do not expect to see that much upside for Thursday unless there is some strong positive news. Our signal is a partial long with probabilities that are mostly flat. By adjusting both our direction and market exposure to out signal strength we are able to have better control over risk, than if we were to leave it to the whim of the market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 8, 2013

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Our signal remained neutral with some positive tendencies. The market is going through a topping phase.  Our market structure continues positive, but is now climbing which indicates the rally should resume at some point in the near future. Anticipatory trend remains neutral.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 7, 2013

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Our signal turned neutral to slightly negative.  Our adjustments to the Conservative program will make the program more selective and should result in fewer long or short signals, but those signals will have a higher level of market exposure than in 2012 though still less than that of the market itself. Selectivity will also increase for our long/money market program along with some increase in the daily exposure but not to exceed 1.5x. Overall market exposure remains positive and holding.  Anticipatory trend is neutral. The market has had a strong up move and this pause might continue for a few days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 4, 2013

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% S&P500 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  The markets remain in a positive mode.  We have an average positive signal with positive Anticipatory trend and I would think the market will show gains this coming week, but it may be choppy..... I ran the numbers on 2012 market exposure for each of our programs and there were some surprises.  First the Hot Money program had a target of having the same market exposure as the NDX but ended the year with 17% less risk than the NDX and a little more than twice the return of the NDX.  Our Primary program has a target of 30% less risk than the NDX and in 2012 had an even better 44% less risk while easily beating the index.  Our Long/Money market program did not beat its target of 50% exposure coming in with a reduction of 41% while closing the year up 16.6% vs the NDX return of 16.8% excellent by most standards but we expect more and have made some changes to improve the return to risk ratio for 2013.  Our very conservative program hit our target of 70% less market exposure and outperformed the market on a risk/adjusted basis. We have also made some improvements to the very conservative program for 2013.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: January 3, 2013

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is 100% money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% S&P500 2x program.  Retirement program is 100% money market.  The market traded in a tight range with the S&P closing two tenths below the water line.  Our market structure remained positive but the level held, cutting the chance of a rally, and our signal reflected that by reducing our market exposure.  Our probabilities show a big jump in the potential amplitude of the downside, but with the VIX sitting below 15 smaller, rather than larger, moves are likely.  The positive market structure and positive 20 day trend indicates there is more upside over the short term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: January 2, 2013

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% S&P500 2x program.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  Do dah, do dah! Very nice way to start the year, but be prepared to give some back.  The Vix plunged on the rally and that alone often means the market has hit an extreme.  Most likely any pullback at this point will be shallow as there is still some slow money looking to jump back in. Our market structure and Anticipatory trend remain positive. We could see some early morning weakness then some make up gains.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.