Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments: December 29, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  December 30 we will move into trading the S&P and trade them through January to avoid the wash sale rules. We will also take our positions in accordance with our updated programs. Details of the programs will be posted on our site this weekend. Another addition will be the publishing of the direction of the trend as we define it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 28, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   The last few trading days of the year sometimes have a mind of their own as tax and other influences add to the normal decision mix. Over the next two days we will make some changes in our programs.  The primary program (long/short/money market) was upgraded and will maintain an overall exposure level of 70% of the NDX while on individual days see a variation from the money market (0 exposure) to 1.5X Long and less on the short side.  The #2 long/money market will have a 50% overall exposure level with a maximum of 1.5x Long. Our #3 program will be changed to our Retirement program with a maximum overall exposure of only 30% as much as the NDX.  and a maximum daily exposure of !X. the program has been improved and should represent and good vehicle for very low risk while still targeting above market gains.  Added to this mix will be a new Hot Money program that has the same overall exposure as the market but with a 2x maximum exposure on some high probability days. It will go long short and money market like our primary program but have a different balance and amount of applied leverage. With an equal to NDX overall exposure the risk should be equal to what you would see, over time, with the NDX.  Setting the exposure lets you know what your level of risk is. Our programs will have good times and bad times and they most likely will not happen at the same time as the stock market. Over the past six years our gains have been over three times that of the NDX and many times that of the S&P while our maximum annual gain has been about 45% larger that the best NDX year our worst year was only a third as bad and the NDX worst year. Since we ran only 70% as exposed to the market we showed much greater gains with much less risk. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 27, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   Could be a small pause in the run up but nothing major. Sears is closing their money losing stores, about 120 between Kmart and Sears, but with about  4,000 that's only a 3% house cleaning. Sears lost 27% of its value today on the news, and that drop seems excessive.  I wouldn't count them out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 26, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Moved back to the long side for Tuesday. I expect to see American corporations take advantage of the European problems to expand in overseas markets. This should enable their earnings to keep from tumbling down as I don't expect to see large gains. The department stores and chain retailers are focusing on "designer" apparel and accessories. Where you can tack a name on a $25 item and sell it for $400. As long the the buyers are not the same people working hard to earn the money the sellers will probable be able to create a "need" for it. If that keeps people employed and helps the economy I am all for it.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 22, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market. We moved all programs into the money market for Friday. Payroll tax cut survives two more months despite poor political behavior.  Little news to sway markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 21, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 70% Rydex 1x fund.  Our power went out this afternoon. Our battery back up kicked in for about an hour, then we left for the day, I came back to post this evening.   Oracle's miss cost the tech sector and the NDX. The rest of the market did fine. I expect the markets to be more quiet the next few days and traders leave for an early holiday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 20, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 41% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 70% Rydex 1x fund.  Santa came, but will he stay?  Our signal became unstable at the close but that did not impact the probabilities, which continue to lean higher. One long time commodity trader I know called to suggest that the rally was pegged to Bank of America falling below $5 a share on Monday. Stocks below $5 lose mutual fund sponsorship, margin-ability and can be delisted from the NYSE. BAC recently was replaced by JPM as the largest US bank by assets but still has lots of "friends" that need to see the stock stay above $5.  I expect some small carryover in the markets on Wednesday, but not very much more this week. Housing starts and permits were strong in support of apartments as foreclosed home owners look to rent. Good economic news for bad economic reasons. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 19, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 55% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 70% Rydex 1x fund.  If we are correct, here comes Santa Claus.  Our probabilities have turned very strong for Tuesday and are expected to carry over into Wednesday. The markets should outperform the local economy in 2012 but don't expect very much. Local and State government buying is still on the decline pushing many small businesses out of business and those unemployed people do not qualify for unemployment and do not get counted as unemployed.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 16, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  Our short signal turned more negative and we increased our exposure to the market in our primary program.  We will be focusing more on the concept of market exposure in 2012. This is the key to understanding risk and the best way to plan an investment strategy. We will provide more detailed information on evaluating your portfolios from this perspective.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 15, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 37% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  Our signal switched to the short side, but still not decisive. Individual traders are beginning to file legal actions against individual officers at MF Global. The Semiconductors have pushed the NDX lower.  FedEX did well, but it is no longer a bellwether for the economy as their gains are coming at the expense of the brick and mortar stores which have much broader implications that involve real estate and many more jobs.      Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 14, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 70% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We continue to get weak long signals and although all programs are long, two have reduced exposure. This activity is somewhat like what we saw in late November.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 13, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% money market.  Early upside was replaced by late downside on Tuesday.  For Wednesday our primary program has gone long a mild 37.5%. I am expecting the markets to end up higher.  Matt Taibbi has another article in the Rolling Stone for December.  This time it is about the National Defense Authorization Act, and like the bulk of his articles, a must read.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 12, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long  100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I am looking for some mild upside on Tuesday.  Mail order is booming along with the delivery services while main street is starving.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: December 11, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short 78% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   With only England holding out on the EU emotions moved back to the positive. Our signals are mixed for Monday.  Be aware, when politicians push an agenda regardless of economic conditions they are only doing themselves a favor. Supply side economics where a stimulus is given to business is the correct course when economic activity is starting to build demand is solid and business could expand with help. It is the wrong medicine when unemployment is high and consumers have little money to spend. Then you must first create demand with demand side stimulus, like cuts in the payroll tax. It is really a no-brainer, both methods have their time to shine, but flexible thinking is required.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 8, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse  NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  The topping action appears to have turned bad. Eyes are fully on Europe and that means anything can happen. Friday's forecast is not quite as negative as Thursday's and we moved our #3 program into the money market. Overall it appears that there is more negative to come going into early next week. Jon Corzine seems be playing a dangerous game, and foolish remarks like today's could be enough to push some damaged commodity traders over the edge.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 7, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse  NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 78% Rydex Inverse 1x NDX fund.  We seem to be in a topping action. I see the possibility of about a 1% spike down in Thursday, but still within a topping action that could last a few more days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 6, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 90% Long Rydex 1x NDX fund.  Each S&P downgrade scare seems to have less and less of an impact on the markets.  I expect one more day of consolidation, then a better picture should emerge of the next direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 5, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  S&P put 15 European Union nations on credit watch. Just something to keep the longs on their toes.  We moved short with the primary program, the first short in about three weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 4, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 35% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long 50% NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% NDX 1x fund. Our signals are all long for Monday and got a bit stronger near the close.  Good chance that the brief consolidation is over.  The employment figures were very much worse than they looked with well over 300,000 leaving the rolls and not finding work during the past month. There are also about 145,000 new people entering the work force for the first time each month and this is after accounting for those that died. So the workforce needs 145,000 new jobs per month to stay even.  So with 120,000 jobs created in November and 315,000 leaving the active rolls the reality is unemployment went up not down as the government would like you to think. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: December 1, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is  100% Money market. Consolidation was the word today as Some indices closed higher and some lower. More of the same is expected for Friday as investors need to decide if this rally is for real or too much and too quick going into the weekend. We have trimmed our exposure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 30, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund. News driven market as the world central banks join forces to add money to the system. Even China cut rates to pump up their slowing, but fast moving economy. With the market kicking much higher on both Monday and Wednesday it looks like it can continue at least another day.  Large moves are not the best to follow but this one came out of a deep hole.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 29, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 70% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our programs are leaning slightly to the up side, but mostly mixed readings. More bank downgrades and American Airlines bankruptcy tells the story of the local economy.  Still, multinationals have the government on their side, and supported with near zero interest rates are  doing their best to get a bigger piece of the emerging market pie ahead of all the other countries and companies trying to do the same thing. The local economy may be dieing but the stock market is not dead.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 28, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.55% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Big pop on Monday mostly from the Holiday sales data.  Tuesday should follow along with a small up. Then keep your eye on Wednesday.  A positive Wednesday would indicate to me that we most likely will continue positive through December, but a down day suggests more downside to come. Groupon is telling us all we need to know about their future in the coupon business by dropping almost 9%, and now down more than 50% from their all time high hit when they opened just a few weeks ago.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 27, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  Excellent year over year holiday sales should pump up the markets on Monday. The sales figures should keep the markets pumped for a while. On Wednesday we got a bottom signal which was followed by a second bottom signal on Friday.  While a single bottom signal is generally a good indicator for the following month a double bottom indicator is not, with the exception of the one day bounce following the signal which we will most probably have on Monday. The signal is triggered by an oversold condition with a few extra touches.  My current work is focused on limiting exposure and how that is related to returns and draw-downs. Total market exposure is directly related to risk and is a very important factor in designing for long term profitability.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 24, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long:100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Not happy to see the market continue to go lower.  The activity however seems normal and the movements only slightly elevated. The market will surprise us from time to time and it is best to go with proven long term behavior for the best long term results. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 22, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long:100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Tuesday marked the fifth consecutive day of decline of the S&P.  We increased our exposure to 1X from .75x.  Today's action did not trigger our bottom indicator so I will have to wait for that indicator. Our signal gained in strength today showing strong probabilities and I expect the markets to climb a bit on Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 21, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long:75% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  It looks like there is no middle ground on the budget.  Republican members of congress will hold the impasse which will allow the tax cuts to expire, but it will appear to their constituents that they fought new taxes. This will also allow the democrats to avoid cuts in spending until the next go around. Odd how congress works. Meanwhile Europe doesn't do any better.  Some components are in place to trigger our bottom indicator, and it could kick in on Tuesday, but more likely we will see just enough of a recovery to keep it from happening right away.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 18, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long:75% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Rough week for the NDX.  We remain partially long in all programs, adjusting to the higher volatility.  Now congress will most likely add additional problems unless they meet the budget deadline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 17, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long:75% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  The markets showed some recovery near the close. Still a dangerous market that I would not leverage due to the overnight influences of the European crisis. With caution,  I believe money can be made by sticking with the high probability trades.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 16, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% money market.  Our signals spent most of the day pointing to the money market.  Near the close our primary program moved long.  Without the other programs leaning in the same direction the probabilities for a rally are less certain and the aftermarket has started off lower.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 15, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Early market downturn was erased mid day and the markets closed higher.  Some focus on Mr. Buffet buying tech stocks. Eyes are watching the Kindle Fire vs Ipad. Is it the 1% vs the 99%? Either way both companies control the chain of sales without outside distribution or outside retailers. This approach keeps costs low enough to block other competition. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 14, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  50% Rydex Inverse NDX2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our signals are now more negative and we have moved our positions accordingly.  One after another, first Greece then Italy now we find that Spain's unemployment rate has reached 22.6%.   Greece and Italy may have changed leaders, but nothing has been resolved. I don't see the Euro making it through this mess. If the Euro looks like it will unwind it would mean a plunge in the Euro and a rise in the dollar. That would have a negative impact on US stocks, but be beneficial for our local economy which would be helped by a strong dollar.  A strong dollar reduces commodity prices which means lower gas and oil prices as well as steel, lumber and copper. This could help stimulate local construction, boost local travel and help the economy from the ground up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 13, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  30% Rydex Inverse NDX2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Programs 2 and 3 use a slower algorithm and are looking for positive carry over into Monday.  Program #1 is looking for a pullback. Overall I believe we will see some consolidation on Monday prior to any sharp change in direction or resumption of the rally. We are seeing above average volatility in both directions. High volatility generally leads to downward trending markets. Unless the daily changes reduce their size expect another decline.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 10, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  NDX closed slightly lower with most other indexes higher. More big name trees are being cut down. Green Mountain Coffee Roasters nearly tripled profits but missed its forecasts and lost 39% of its value. Continuous pressure from Hedge fund manager David Einhorn who is short the stock did not help. Fidelity was a big holder of Green Mountain and may have been one of the sellers today. (Though I have no way of knowing for sure.)   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 9, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  Our signal for the primary program is a small positive, not enough to have us take a position in this volatile European driven market.  Italy's economy is much larger than that of Greece and the market concerns are larger. If any of the European countries defaults, I would expect many more to follow. Looking ahead to Friday I think we will see some stabilizing and a slightly more positive attitude.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 8, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  All positions moved to the money market.  The NDX bumped up against the 2400 level and most likely has reached a pausing level.  Indicators are mildly negative for Wednesday and appear to be leaning more negative for Thursday.  European news continues to be shaky and ongoing with no clear message.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 7, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  After spending most of the day below water the markets rallied during the last 45 minutes to close higher. Our signals are somewhat mixed with our primary program sitting in the money market and the rest long. Europe is still the driving force with every rumor shaking the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 5, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  We closed the short position in our third program but held the short in the primary program for Monday.  I am getting some indications of positives coming into the market on Tuesday.  I join the chorus of nay-sayers on the Groupon offering. I felt the same way about TSLA but that stock remains well above its offering price even though it has a negative net income that exceeds its revenues.  Unemployment remains at the 9% level before you factor in all the people who no longer collect unemployment but still remain unemployed. That number is growing every day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 3, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Another day of our markets staying glued to Europe. Keeping the Euro together is better than it falling apart, but it will not, by itself, insure economic growth in Europe.  Our indicators have shifted to the down side and I don't believe that there is much more Euro-driven hope left in the indexes after the giant move in October.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 2, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  All positions went flat for Thursday.  Good news to tens of thousands of MF Global accounts as their funds appear to be safe and are being switched to another house. They may be able to trade and access funds as early as Thursday.  That alone may give the markets a positive push. Still don't know if funds are missing, but it looks like the retail traders will survive....Papandreous has nothing to lose by going to a vote, but most likely he is desperate and trying to use blackmail to save his job.  In that case it will not go to a vote and they will accept the recent proposal.  A very strong chance that the popular vote would  result in withdrawal from the Euro and set up a precedent for the other countries in similar situations. I don't think they will let it get that far.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: November 1, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  We are holding our long position into Wednesday with a strong long signal, but I do not see much of a rally beyond Wednesday.  Our MF Global comments, yesterday, were a good guess. Ex Goldman Sachs CEO + Ex New Jersey Politician + Commodity trading, does not exactly scream "trustworthiness".  Most likely the change in calling commodity trading, futures trading had more to do with the stigma attached to the old name than any other reason that might have been given. Looks like more bad press for the Futures industry, Goldman Sachs, Politics and New Jersey. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October31, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Our main concern for Tuesday is watching for repercussions from the MF Global bankruptcy.  Are the client funds safe? Aside from MF our signals are pointing higher.  Early aftermarket however has continued lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 30, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2X fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.   I am expecting more of a US focus on the markets this week.  Our signal for Monday became less negative near the close and we reduced our exposure. The markets will have a very difficult time maintaining the rebound strength they mustered in October and we should see more back and forth activity in November.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 27, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 42.5% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  Our #2 and #3 programs have moved to the sidelines after gaining about 5% for the week. We reduced our exposure on our primary program now running about 85% as much as the market itself. Now that the major fears from Europe are mostly resolved I expect that our markets will uncouple from theirs.  With the Vix down to the 25 level we should see smaller daily changes and the markets should begin to move back to a more normal US economy and corporate earnings driven mode. I expect this to be very good for us as normal markets are easier to read.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 26, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Our slower moving indicators were "long" while our "up to the minute" indicator edged flat at the close by a very small margin. The impact of the Eurocentered market seems to be weakening but  I still prefer to only take the strongest signals.  The Euro zone talks seem to be going well and the VIX is back down to the 30 area after climbing past 40.  Europe's activity overshadowed  both our money flow idicators and our emotional based indicators the past two months but things are returning to normal. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 25, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  Our signals moved slightly positive for Wednesday, but not enough to trigger a buy. Duck... The markets are in a punishing mood with Netflix down about 35% during the day and Amazon off 15% in after hours trading on bad earnings news. Amazon is giving up profit margin for growth which is, in my opinion, the right tactic in this market.  Amazon grew top line by 44% in the third period. No wonder the brick and mortar stores are suffering. Still the European market is dominating and a rally in the DAX can turn this around for Wednesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 24, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.  All signals moved to the money market and are leaning lower. Still a dangerous market following the lead of Europe and best to stay out for Tuesday. There is a good chance our markets will back off to even out prior to Wednesday's European meeting. No need to be in the market every day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 23, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Our signals all moved together for Monday. Our money flow indicator was not run over by Europe this past week, (good!), but  eyes remain on Europe which caries dangers for US markets.  The good news is the foreign influences are crisis related in that once the "crisis mentality" lifts the markets should mostly uncouple.  China seems to have been ignored but the Shanghai index is down over 61% from it high in 2007 and off about 18% year to date and has not participated in the recent run higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: October 20, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 45% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long" 85% Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Our probabilities are negative reflecting the leaning of the primary program, but our signal is not strong enough to take a position.  Our #2 and #3c programs use a different focus and have moved long. We continue to generate mixed signals. On the plus side I am getting a sense of improvement coming in over the next few days, but the link to the European markets still demand caution and reduced exposure. Apple slipped a bit and remains under $400. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 19, 2011

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 85% Short Rydex  NDX 1x.  Error in yesterdays post it should have read 50% long for the #2 program, not 100% we are not using leverage during these European driven markets. For Thursday we have more mixed signals and have moved partially to the short side in our #3 program, other programs are in the money market. Apple ended the day down about 5.5%. Yesterday I failed to mention that Goldman Sachs revenue dropped 60%.  Earnings slides are more easily corrected than revenue slides. We are seeing major banking problems. Morgan Stanley showed a gain using some accounting tricks in devalued debt.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 18, 2011

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 50% Long Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 85% Long Rydex  NDX 1x.  Tuesday's rebound in the DAX kicked the US markets higher.   Apple had a rare miss in earnings and revenue. I expect the Iphone sales to kick back in for the fourth quarter but with the Amazon Kindle fire (color Kindle) expected to ship on November 15 the Christmas sales for the Apple tablet will suffer.  Overall the fast pace growth of Apple may be showing some signs of slowing down. Our signals are mixed, since we are only taking the strongest signals in our primary program we remain out but we do have a low level short. This is opposite the longs in #2 and #3. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 17, 2011

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Short Rydex Inverse NDX 1x.  Early Monday Europe started to go lower and brought the US (follow along) markets with it.  The markets had a clear loss for the day and I expect some carry over into Tuesday.  Wells Fargo added to the banking sector woes with a sharper than expected decline in revenue.  Apple is driving the NDX and represents big a piece of the pie, pushing that index higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 16, 2011

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is 100% Money market.  The last two weeks saw the market zooming along as if we were in an expanding economy, with easy credit, low interest rates and lots of hiring.  Well we do have the low interest rates.  I would still like to see us uncouple from the European markets who are driving this surge. Until then we are cautious, looking for strong signals and keeping our primary fund unleveraged.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 13, 2011

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Google had very good earnings and growth which could keep the NDX climbing.  Matt Taibbi, of the Rolling Stone has another good article.  This time it is on the Occupy Wall Street protest.  You may not agree with all his suggestions, but most are on the money.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 12, 2011

Current position for Thursday (sorry about the day of the week mix up): (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is100% Money market.  More follow the leader activity with Europe higher overnight reversing an early downturn. All programs have moved to the money market awaiting a stronger signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 11, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our overview of earnings is not optimistic with most companies expected to show little or no growth. Europe continues to dominate the markets and during this time frame we are only trading our strongest signals and have refrained from using any leverage.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 10, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market .  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is: 100% Money market.  Our markets had a  very enthusiastic response to Europe's action to support their banks.  The response was even better than the European markets could muster. We will know when the crisis is really over when the US markets fail to follow the lead of the European markets. Until then, caution is warranted. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 7, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 100% Money market.  A new quarter is here.  Will strong earnings overpower more bad news out of Europe?   Will there be any real top end growth or just more cost cutting improvements in the bottom line?  The early aftermarket is strong but Europe has not yet opened.  Anti-Wall street movement is still small and growing slowly.  As part of the world protests, this one is mild, and I am doubtful that it will cause any real problems or change.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 6, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX fund.  To better isolate ourselves from the European influences during these Euro-centered times our primary program and program 2 will use only their strongest signals for positions and all programs will use less exposure, with a maximum of 1:1 or less.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 5, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Money market.  (3C) Long/Short/money market program is: 100% Money market.  Today's large up move was in part a carry over from the big jump in the European markets. Now I expect a pause.  Is it Domino economics? If Greece falls, money depositors in other countries could pull out their funds from the banks, and the weak countries are liable to come tumbling down too. China's economy should be able to continue to grow, just at a slower pace, which should be good for China.  The US will most likely slide further into recession territory as US politics stands in the way of our economic growth and longer term maybe our economic survival.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 4, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 18.7% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3C)  Long/Short/money market program is Long: 82% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our bottom indicator was triggered on Monday's close and over the past couple of years it had forecast a sharp run up over the following month. It has an even better record of calling for a rebound in the next two days, and we got it at today's close.  I installed a more conservative program to replace program 3. This program has an excellent  history of not being buffeted by overnight activity or Fed programs.  It also has a history of lower draw-downs, yet retains strong upside consistency. The program will be less correlated with program (2) and should provide a better overall balance of our three programs.  See program #3c. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: October 3, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This was another day where the overnight plunge in the European markets overran the positive news coming out of the US.  We are holding our reduced exposure positions. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.        

Comments: September 30, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have reduced all our exposures across the programs due to the overwhelming influence of the overnight European markets. I have placed a cap of 50% as much exposure as the indexes on our trades.  In addition we will replace program #3 with a program that has been in the works for a long time and has proven itself to work under a number of outside forces including the crash of 2008, QE1 and QE2 and the current European crisis. That program will be put into operation sometime this week. It was my original intention to have three very distinct programs that would offer strong diversification. This new program will support that goal.  Interesting side view on Eastman Kodak the company that dominated photography for many years. Ironically in 1976 a Kodak engineer invented the digital camera this was five years before the IBM PC.  That invention led to the destruction of the company whose stock on Friday dropped below $1 a share.  EK has now lost almost 99% of its value from its all time high. Technology can be both wonderful and terrible.  It takes a lot of effort to spot the changes and make the necessary adjustments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            0 

Comments: September 29, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 46% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our primary signal weakened on the close and we were able to reduce our exposure.  We are experiencing some volatile and erratic market behavior with significant focus on Europe.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 28, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 68% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The US markets followed the closing direction of Germany's DAX index about 77% of the time during the past quarter reflecting the impact the European Euro crisis is having on the US markets. There was very little correlation prior to last year.  Investor attention will target the crisis centers, like oil spills, wars etc. As crisis resolve, the attention moves on.  The Dax has been more negative than the US markets and small losses on the Dax have turned into gains in the US.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 27, 2011**late posting

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long 45% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100%  Money market.  We have a weak long signal in our primary fund.  The US markets have been tracking the European close with an historically high correlation, especially with regard to positive European closes. More on this tomorrow. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 26, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100%  Money market. It was reported that Apple has cut some IPad orders from China. This could mean they shifted manufacturers or they are feeling the world economic slowdown or, most likely, they are playing it safe with Amazons k-Pad release and are anticipating making changes to their own IPad 3. The drop in the price of gold continues as inflation fears disappear. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 23, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 32% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x program.     (2)  Long/money market program is  100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100%  Money market.  We have only a mild short signal in our primary program with the other programs in the money market.  The panic in Europe seems to have slowed down and the idea of many years of almost no growth in the US taking hold.  Early premarket futures trading was on the upside.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 22, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 32% Rydex NDX 2x program.     (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 47%  Rydex NDX 2x program. (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100%   Rydex NDX 1x program.  Finally some real fear came into the markets. We continue long but reduced our exposure in line with the recent volatility in order to maintain a more uniform risk environment. The higher the volatility the less market exposure we maintain in programs 1 and 2. Program 3 does not use leverage and gets its reduced exposure by being in the money market a portion of the time.  The drop in the longer term government bond price will have a slightly positive effect on mortgages while having a larger negative effect on those already retired or about to. Five years ago 2 million dollars in 10 year government bonds would have returned about $100K per year, now it only brings in $34k.  This will lead to a more rapid liquidation of securities in 401k plans over the next few years as the money needed fails to match up with the money being generated.  It also means more semi retired people staying in the workforce keeping the unemployment rate high. Copper prices are declining rapidly eroding inflation fears and reminding us that deflation is the problem.  Any of you who downloaded our T-Index program knew that a couple of years ago,  Our t-index program showed the last hint of inflation was in February of 2008 and signaled deflation on July 14, 2008. It has not wavered since. NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 21, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 40% Rydex NDX 2x program.     (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex NDX 2x program. (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100%   Rydex NDX 1x program. The weakness on the close was very positive for the markets. I expect that, after a possible continued early sell off, the market will recover and that there should be another attempt at new highs over the next few days. The NDX was very much over bought and the S&P has now moved back into more reasonable buying territory.  The stimulus program is no great shakes but will benefit the multinationals and support the perception that the US government is in control of the economy. That could bring in more cash from foreign countries while Europe and the Middle East are still in turmoil.   NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 20, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.     (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Money Market.  Very mixed readings have put all our programs into the money market.  The Fed announcement will come up against the recent strong upswing in the markets. I expect the news to be positive for the markets, but not so positive for our economy which needs much more than trying to move interest rates by a quarter percent when they are already scraping the bottom. The Greek economy is only as large as Colorado's so some of the fear for the banks and US contagion may be overblown. Yet the problem for the people in Greece is very real as 80,000 private sector companies have folded over the past year and the public sector jobs are not nearly as effective as they should be.   NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 19, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  37.5% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Money Market.  The markets in most cases partially recovered from the overnight fall in the futures. The NDX managed a slight gain for the day.  We are partially long in our primary program but price changes after the close of trading would have moved us out. Our signal is now leaning flat to negative. The aftermarket was holding.  I expect small changes as the market participants try to decipher the Fed.  Netflix, a previously brilliantly guided company, has made some blunders recently and its price has fallen by more than half since July. Apple  stock is benefiting from Netflix mistakes.   NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 18, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  75% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Money Market.  The upswing continues and we are now getting mixed readings.  Very positive in our primary program and neutral in our other two programs where we moved to the money market.  Expectations are the Fed will launch a new stimulus program this week on Wednesday. Most likely a leak or expectation of their intentions spurred the markets this past week. If they put in "operation twist" it would be a good bet to assume it was a leak. The markets however have started the week off down about 1% in pre-market trading.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 15, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  75% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long:  75% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.   (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Hopefully we have one more day of this move.  The market continues strong but not in a run away fashion. Investors were happy about Europe and I expect will change their focus near term to other things. Not very many bright spots as productivity takes its toll on the US Postal service fewer letters means too many employees. 30,000 could be let go.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 14, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short:  75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  I expect a pause, then a continuation of this strong up move.  Wednesday was the third day this week the NDX was up over 1.3%.  Expect to hear more nervous news out of Europe overnight causing the market to slide. I doubt if very many investors want to get over-extended on the up side just yet.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 13, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Another strong day without run-away action. This should provide us with a continued move higher. Signal is strong and probabilities look good. The European action tends to move back and forth so we can't expect to string too many up days in a row. NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 12, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  17% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Money market.   Very mixed signals going into the close.  We held our low exposure long, but it looks like it closed leaning to the negative.  Might see a small pull back on Tuesday with resumed upside on Wednesday.   Bank of America is worth watching as Moynihan tries to undo the damage Ken Lewis wrought with the Countrywide purchase.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 11, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  17% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 55% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   See what they do not what they say.  Bank of America is about to lay off 40,000 workers. That is more bad news for America but should help the bank stabilize their business and boost profits as revenue declines.  Our program is looking for a blip up. The after-markets are looking for more down side. Could be a recovery after an early sell off. Another negative is that many baby boomers have put off retiring, leaving less openings in the job market for new workers.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 8, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short:  56% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Money market.   Obama unveils a $447 Billion jobs plan two years too late.  Good idea whose time past, still it should be helpful in allowing some small businesses to hang on a little longer. This non recession will continue to grind on for a number of years until housing can stabilize.  The aftermarket did not respond in early trading.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 7, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Money market.   All programs are in the money market as the market digests Wednesdays large up move and the President talks about jobs. The only thing that makes jobs is demand from the population. With cash gone and easy credit now just history, the only jobs will be those bought with taxpayer money. NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 6, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund.  Once again we have maintained our position. The downside steam may be running out and we expect a rebound sometime this week. Our probabilities are leaning higher, but our signals are holding us back from jumping in on the up side.  European banks have problems that most likely won't go away soon and will continue to negatively influence the US markets. US banks have their own problems from the mortgage scandal and their links to Europe do not help their stock prices.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 5, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund.  We are holding our partially short position into Monday.  It appears that the market will head lower Tuesday as the weekend futures and foreign markets have moved sharply to the down side.  Changes were made to our program #3 to incorporate money market days. This should result in less risk due to reduced market exposure during periods of greater uncertainty.  For now the banks are taking it on the chin.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: September 1, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund.  Market outlook for Friday is flat to negative. Finally a federal housing agency is set to file law suites against more than a dozen large banks for misrepresenting the quality of mortgage securities. This might keep a lid on bank prices for awhile. NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 31, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Rydex money market.  Our signal turned to the money market on all faces. Most likely the market will pull back after such a strong week as our probabilities are still very weak.  Based on the strength and persistence of this recent run investors must be expecting miracles.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 30, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We continue to hold our positions. Tuesday's market was choppy but ended higher once again. Our signal remained constant and negative while the probabilities became even more negative.  Looks like time for a reversal. NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 29, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We continue to hold our positions.  The market ignored weak home sales in favor of stronger consumer spending. Most of the upside seems linked to the perceived improvement in the economy of Greece.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 28, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We see more downside ahead near term although Monday's early market direction will most likely be higher as a carry over from Friday and a relief rally from the storm. We will soon adjust the number 3 program to also spend time in the money market. This will enable it to be more in tune with our core values of being less exposed to the markets than the indexes.  Exposure means risk and when the signals are very weak there is no reason to take the risk.  NEW long term forecast recently posted.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 25, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Unless Bernanke comes up with something that will work from the bottom up forget about an economic recovery in 2012. Our programs have (mostly) moved us into the money market and out of the Bernanke Wyoming tornado.  NEW long term forecast posted this past weekend!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 24, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Hopefully the third time is the charm as we hold our position.  Applied Materials a,  good proxy for the economic condition of the tech sector, said outlook going forward was poor.   Margins were increased for gold but are still low enough to not be effective in reducing prices for very long.   NEW long term forecast posted this past weekend!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 23, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Oversized rally, almost as if word had leaked of a super stimulus move that Bernanke was about to announce.  But the banks did not respond and any leak would have included the banks, at least I would think so.  We are holding our positions.  NEW long term forecast posted this past weekend!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 22, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Big early morning rally faded away leaving the markets slightly positive on the close. I now see more negatives going forward for the next couple of days and have moved short.  A drop below the 1119 level on the S&P could send us back a year to August 2010, when the index brushed  the 1050 level.  The potential for the NDX is even more bleak but not as likely.  Bernanke speaks later this week and I doubt if any giant moves will happen prior unless information has been leaked.  As baby boomers move into retirement they remove bodies from the workforce allowing the hiring of less skilled labor for less pay. Revenue from payrolls will fall for both the states and federal government, while Medicare and Social Security expenses will climb. The boomers  will slowly draw down their 401k's putting some pressure on stocks.  Some will sell their homes as the 1% CDs will not meet their retirement goals. This is a continued deflation scenario something Japan suffered under for many years. NEW long term forecast posted this past weekend!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 19, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our primary program clawed back this week and we are now slightly positive for the year and ahead of the NDX by over 8%.  Friday's market early rally attempt failed. HP is looking very confused, they used to stand for the highest quality and that perception allowed it to carry a premium PE ratio, now it could be years before they shake the fools image and are awarded a normal PE.  The markets were beaten down this week but remain above the early August lows and I expect a test of those lows during the next few days. NEW long term forecast posted today!   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 18, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 15% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x, (2) Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Hard down day but some of the indices are well above their early August low the RUT is 3% above and the DJI is 2% better. Although our signal is weak it does favor a continued down-side.  With options expiration on Friday we could see it dance quite a bit.  Today's plunge followed the European markets lower as the major European markets tumbled over 5%. NetApp stock's net income slipped along with missed revenue projections costing the stock almost 17%. Many stocks are missing revenue projections as the economy slides. The markets are adjusting to the new reality. What the multi-nationals do as individual companies comes back to haunt them collectively.  Rolling Stone magazine just  published another Matt Taibbi bomb shell. This time the target was the SEC and toss in the Justice department as not so innocent bystanders.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 17, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x, Long 20% Rydex S&P 500 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 50%  Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We have primarily a short signal that became more negative at the close. The news was mostly quiet and the market's early advance crumbled as the day progressed.  Our outlook for the next few days is negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 16, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Market volatility remains high and the traders seem nervous.  News our of France and Germany was not particularly encouraging but the markets held up better than what one might expect...for now.  I am looking for a rally on Wednesday then back to the gloom.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 15, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 55% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100:Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Sorry late posting. We held all our positions over from Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 12, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 55% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100:Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is Short: 100%  Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our signals have move fully negative.  Eyes are on Europe. The short selling ban in a number of European countries could work against the markets and could shift some short sales into the US markets.  The US market stopped depending on the US economy a few years ago, but it still depends in part on Europe. Asia depends on the US and Europe to maintain its expansion. The world is hobbling.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 11, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is: 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2X fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is Long: 50%  Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This time we have a simple money market signal for our primary fund.  The market gyrations did trigger a market bottom signal on August 5th and 8th. The last one was as recent as June 15/16 and that one worked out very well for the following month. They do work much better during dips in bull markets rather than dips in bear markets. We saw the market fall another 40% after the first bottom signal in that started in September of 2008. I would not attach too much importance to the signal at this time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 10, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is: 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is:100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Wednesday had a very weak close which forced our primary signal positive, again too late to reposition.  Our primary signal is only moderately positive and our third program is negative so Friday may represent a better day for the Longs. McGraw Hill continues to pay for Standard and Poor's blunder with its stock down over 15% since Friday.  It will be interesting to watch this stock.  It did not recover along with the overall market on Tuesday so there may be some very rich and very angry investors (Not to mention governments) our there that have taken this personal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 9, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is: 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Tuesday had a very strong close which forced our primary signal into negative territory.  We took the earlier signal which was money market. Our other programs remain @ 50% long exposure. The Fed did not say anything other than they would keep interest rates low. Which is what you would expect when the economy is bad. During the depression the US government created jobs for the unemployed.  They even had beautification jobs for artists to boost moral. Why are we only feeding the multinational corporations with cheap loans that they spend overseas?  Are we really looking for mass demonstrations like those in England, Israel and the Middle East?  Some body wake them up. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 8, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I continue to reduce market exposure in line with market volatility. Two very devastating days one day apart have pushed us negative a little ahead of the NDX and 4 to 5 percent ahead of the S&P. We managed a good profit in 2008 and we should not have a problem if this turns into a long term decline as over a long enough time frame we move both long and short.  McGraw Hill, parent company of S&P, lost over 8-1/2% today, some heads may roll at S&P. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 5, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We were not privy to the S&P information prior to the close but it appears that it was leaked. The timing of the S&P downgrade was irresponsible in light of the roiled markets the prior week. There is something going on at S&P that does not smell right. Italy raided the offices of the S&P just a few days ago.  Remember the AAA ratings to risky CDOs a few years ago? Was it incompetence or collusion?  There does not seem to be a better alternative to the agencies so they will, by necessity, continue to exist.  I expect a much lower opening in the markets, a drop in the dollar however, should help stocks longer term.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.              

Comments: August 4, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 65% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This was a very bad day.  It wasn't the fear of a double dip recession in the US that brought down stocks.  Almost everyone knows the local economy never got out of the first one.  The problem is one of Europe's economy heading south and bringing US overseas earnings with it. US stocks still need at least one leg to limp on. The size of the shock wave was unexpected as it was not telegraphed by an exceptionally strong VIX or even large price changes. The change itself has triggered our exposure reduction mechanism that helps provide us with a more uniform level of daily risk. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 3, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund., 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We got the up day we were looking for along with the down morning. We are holding our long position into Thursday and so far it looks like the rally should carry through the end of the week. The real estate component is lagging but I expect that it too will pick up as interest rates have fallen further despite the unending news commentator talk of rates going higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 2, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund., 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. Very bad market day on Tuesday. Our signals however got much stronger and we are fully invested for Wednesday. The debt ceiling fiasco is over for now and although the economy looks very bad, markets generally step their way higher and lower. Tomorrow could continue lower and there is a very good chance it will at least start in that direction but our methods are unique so we don't follow the crowds....Looking for an up day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: August 1, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. The silly season should be over this week and am looking forward to more normal trading. Our primary signal turned flat so we moved into the money market. The #2 and #3 programs are invested at half normal strength. The manufacturing index, released Monday morning fell taking stocks with it. No jobs means no home buying, means lower tax revenue, means the recession is not over.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 29, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 25% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Making money in the market is determined by having more pertinent information or better analyzed information than the person opposite you on the trade. Going into the weekend we have a very strong negative signal, we also have a very uncertain, out of normal situation with a group of congressmen that have much better information on the next few days than we have. As a result we are operating under very reduced exposure. Those with a 1/3 split between the three programs are essentially flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 28, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Quiet day as both bulls and bears fear to commit. Even we trimmed our primary program's "short" call down to -1x from -1.5x in light of the congressional games. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 27, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Big down day without any special news other than the debt impasse.  We reduced our exposure on program #1 for Thursday.  Program #2 remained in the money market, giving the combined three programs less than market exposure all this week.  It is important to keep the overall market exposure low while seeking high returns.  Although we are sometimes leveraged our primary program has maintained less than market exposure overall since the end of 2005.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 26, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  We have now moved to a mostly long position. Our #2 program, however, is still cautious and in the money market.  Not much change these past two days as we suspected with our programs showing different directions.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 25, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Inverse Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  We held our position as the market movements are not giving us very much to work with, however our signal is slightly more negative.  Netflix got a lot of flack for raising rates and now the stock is being hit for being slightly under expectations on revenue. Earnings were better than expected.  I expect Netflix to spin off the DVD unit and the unbundling of the dvd price from the download price is a step in that direction. Once the DVD unit is spun off expect to see first run movies available for download at premium pricing making Netflix a pure download company with a full depth of offerings. Don't count them out too soon.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 22, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Inverse Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Please send me an email if you don't see our most recent postings, it is my intention to post every day prior to the trade date. The NDX moved to a new recent high and there is a good chance we will see a pull back on Monday close to the breakout area of 2417.  Caterpillar's poor  earnings weighed on the Dow while the threat of a US government default hangs over all the markets. Monday finds our three programs all pointing in different directions. That is because all three use a different focus.  Happily the average of the three is up 10.9% year to date.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 21, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Most of the earnings reports have come in higher including Microsoft's, whose after-the-bell report topped both expected sales and earnings. The S&P is sitting about 2% below its high for the year. While the NDX is only 1/2% below its high and came within a few tenths of this years high during the day.  I expect the market to try to exceed their recent highs but there should be some resistance to a clean break.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 20, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex  Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Poor follow-through on Tuesday's strong performance.  Most signal components have taken a flat or negative posture and we moved accordingly.  The overall attitude has soured as Intel's win on earnings did not boost shares in the aftermarket. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 19, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Half way through the day a small group of both Republican and Democrats announced agreement on the deficit plan. Another small step in the kicking and screaming dance that must be performed for the benefit of the voters. Anyway, it gave the markets a second jolt pushing the NDX up over 2.3% for the day. We closed out the Real Estate fund and held the remaining positions. Looks like more upside to come, but market rain clouds are seen towards the end of the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 18, 2011....oops I thought I posted this earlier.

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund,  25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Our signal is strong for Tuesday. The market showed a good rebound in the second halve of the day and I expect it to continue. Monday's pre market comments by Tim Geitner,  that a possible default was off the table, did not pull the market up very much before heavy selling pushed it lower. Gold continues higher as all currencies are now under suspicion.  Looks like Borders will be liquidated. This is another sad event in the history of bookstores from the mom and pops through the small Crown's, giant Crown's, super stores and e-readers. Lets hope we never hear "Mommy what's a book?" added to those "What's a typewriter?" etc. questions that children ask.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 15, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Not much in the way of good news to support any sustained rally but we all know that if the market falls too far there will be another stimulus package to push it back up.  We also know that some sort of debt reduction plan will pass and life will go on as usual. Looks like a little bit higher little bit lower type of stock market going forward. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 14, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Bernanke roiled the markets with more remarks about QE3. The markets took on a very jittery posture over the course of the day, not the stuff we like to see for rallies. Google may save Friday with its blow out announcement that sent the stock up 10% after the close. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 13, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund and 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  It was all about QE3 today. And the hint of it from Ben Bernanke sent the markets higher.  They later drifted back  on the thought  that things weren't bad enough yet.  Got to love the stock market logic. Our signals improved and we are now long in all three programs. After the markets closed Moody's threatened to downgrade the US credit rating sending the aftermarket lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 12, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  The market continued its decline on Tuesday. Wednesday continues with a mixed pattern for us and we moved our primary program into the money market. As Italy added to European fears, Ireland's debt rating was cut to junk by Moody's.  Will the Euro go down the tubes in a return to individual currencies?  I don't know. Netflix is raising rates about 60% in some cases. This must mean they saw a topping in new accounts and are looking for an earnings surge from the rate hike. The PE should start to fall from here but the stock can continue to climb. Could get an up-tick on Wednesday as my "hot" stock list gained on the day. An end of day review shows some seeds of recovery come Thursday but take care.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 11, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 28% Rydex inverse NDX 2x fund and Long 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Program #1's signal fluctuated between partial short and the money market, landing on the money market at the close. Our third program, after picking up two days of gains by being short, switched to the long side. Overall we are neutral on the market for Tuesday. The morning focus was on Obama's talk on the budget stalemate. I expect it will be resolved.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 8, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is: 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our signals continue to be mixed and leaning slightly to the downside. The poor jobs report was the trigger for Friday's drop but  Friday's move to the downside did not have the scary follow through and most of the loss was recovered.  I expect a quick test of the low prior to any sustained advance.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 7, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our signals have become very mixed. We have strong but opposed and conflicted views indicating that a large group of market participants are very ready to jump ship. The NDX and RUT have now gone straight up for 8 days.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 6, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We reduced our exposure in our #1 program but remain overall long for Thursday.  I expect the smooth upward path will now start to run into some obstacles. I don't think the NDX will be able to make gains through Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 5, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our position remains unchanged from Tuesday. Netflix was up over 8% today upon announcing expansion plans into 43 countries. We gave you a hint in our long term forecast last  September which I repeat here.  9/23/2010  Just  a note on Netflix.  Sometimes there occurs, at a certain point in time, a convergence of things that combine to form a special opportunity for some and disaster for others. Netflix is a case where they originally struggled to make money shipping DVDs by mail. Going public in 2002 their labor and cost intensive shipping model did manage to break even by 2006. But since they started other factors began to change.  As real estate pricing soared movie theatres raised ticket prices. TV prices went into decline while TV set sizes greatly gained in size, and resolution improved significantly, making the home view option more enjoyable. Screens went from analog to digital improving the viewing surface, cutting reflections and just making things better.  Better sound became an even bigger part of the TV experience. Out side of TV wireless speed and transmission improved allowing more homes to go wireless. Higher internet transmission speeds became the norm in homes.  Video transmission speeds increased.  Netflix was able to offer thousands of movies for download at no extra monthly charge.  The stumbling block was a black box that needed to be purchased, but eventually the Wii was made to support Netflix downloads and the cost of the black bock dropped. When  the recession hit people who lost jobs spent more time at home.  Eventually the consumer put everything together and realized what this meant.  For under $10 per month they had beautiful large screen access to thousands of movies.  For millions of people that was better than renting the latest movie or going to the theater. Blockbuster, their major competitor, faltered, eventually going into bankruptcy. Movie theaters continuing to raise rates to maintain income have lost customers but the customers have changed their habits and will not go back. Even the social scene has changed with "dating" no longer the young people model. This all reads well for Netflix and bad for movie theater operators and Blockbuster.  Redbox has made inroads with kiosks that rent DVDs for $1.  This is a Band-Aid  which because of its high operational costs and limited selections will eventually be squeezed back down in size and struggle to survive.  Netflix (stock) will at some point become overpriced as everyone jumps on the stock, but as a company it should do very well. I expect they might spin off the DVD handling portion and go fully download, expanding into multinational markets as a sleek low cost large profit operation.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: July 4, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  There was an explosion in the indexes this week with the NDX climbing 6.5%. Going back about 18 years we find that the average follow through week gained about an additional 2%. Our programs are long with the exception on #2 which remained in the money market. Our second program is designed to only go long under very safe conditions and it indicates that the larger moves have created greater risks for the markets. Hope everyone had a happy and safe fourth.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2011 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2010