Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments: December 31, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 500.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% S&P500 program.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  The fiscal ball gets kicked down the road a bit but it looks like the little guy will be the one paying for most of it.  The market was happy and stocks went higher. Our program is calling for the rally to continue on Wednesday. I should be able to access the final Rydex numbers on Tuesday and I will update them at that time. There will be some adjustments to our programs for 2013.  I am setting new targets for 2013 both for risk and rewards and will have them posted over the next few days. This has been a good year for the program and our clients.  We introduced the anticipatory trend which led to the theory of market structure and the structure levels, all of which will add to making the program signals even better in 2013.  Happy New Year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 28, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex SP500 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex S&P500 1x fund.  Only one trading day left for 2012. Will there be last minute dumping of stocks over the FC?  If early futures trading is correct the answer is yes.  The year end tax craziness makes for more difficult trading and it is even more difficult this year. Our Primary and Hot money programs are in the money market avoiding what ever happens on Monday.   I will pull together more detailed stats for year end but it looks like we were able to close the year with a 23.8% gain in our primary program and a very nice 34% gain in our now "one year old" Hot Money program without increasing risk.  Our Long money market program should close about even with the gains for the NDX as it is running just slightly ahead of the NDX today, and has about half the risk as measured by market exposure.  Even our very conservative retirement program should close the year out above 5%.  I do not expect the panic to carry very far, if at all into the new year, as our market structure is positive and at a high level. Our Anticipatory trend turned long but probabilities look negative. A mixed message for the last day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 27, 2012

Current position for Friday: Retirement program Short: 20% NDX inverse 1x fund. All other  programs 100% money market.  A late recovery in the markets fell short for most indices. All indicators,  positions and comments are the same as yesterdays post.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 26, 2012

Current position for Thursday: Retirement program Short: 20% NDX inverse 1x fund. All other  programs 100% money market.  The a technical uptrend over the past twenty days has turned sour and is now reading negative. Our market structure remains positive  and the market level is now climbing. This is better for the future rather than the present so we could easily see more down side.  We have moved out of the market except for a small inverse exposure in our very conservative program. Could be a late cliff scare over the next few days with selling of stocks that had strong gains this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 24, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We have had only two strong signals this month.  Although our returns for the month have been good, weak signals are more easily influenced by random news events, so we use less market exposure to reduce risk.  Going into the last few days of the year. We see that the market remains in a technical uptrend over the past twenty days. Our market structure remains positive. The market level is holding which generally allows for the market to drift lower and the Anticipatory trend is neutral. The last week of the year is generally a positive one for stocks. With the lower trading volume this week and the VIX well under its long term average I expect smaller than normal market changes for the rest of the week.  Merry Christmas.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 21, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  When we do not have enough information to feel we have a trading edge we move into the money market.  This tactic paid off on Friday as the negative news sent the markets lower. For Monday we have a small positive signal and we have taken a long position. The market has told us its response to a fiscal cliff stalemate and it wasn't that bad. I suspect that most of the year end selling for tax purposes is already out of the way. On one hand the money flow does not look good next week, but from a market structure point of view the structure is positive and the level has dropped telling us that there should be some immediate and continued market gains.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 20, 2012

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% money market.  The NDX managed to tack on a tenth of a percent after a long day of minor fluctuations. Our signal turned flat in all programs and we are in the money market. The market structure level increased today telling us the rally will be extended a bit, but that immediate gains will be difficult.  Matt Taibbi reporter for the Rolling Stone has posted his perspective on the HSBC drug money laundering settlement and compares the crime and punishment to normal daily drug enforcement prosecutions in the US.  RollingStone , interesting read.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 19, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  It is starting to get tricky.  Our moderate long signal turned more positive and is now a full strength "long".  It could be that the down turn today is enough of a market pause, after all, the market has gone up only a small fraction over the past 5 or 6 days, but by some criteria the market remains overbought. The NDX closed on the low of the day and this is a very good indicator that the market participants had a mini panic which is positive for the following day. Still the news factor can throw a wrench into the mix.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 18, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Second nice daily gain, and the run may have a little more to go. Our signal softened but remained positive and we reduced our overall exposure.  Expect some consolidation on Wednesday, positive or negative then a better chance of downside for Thursday and a seasonal return to the upside on Friday.  The last two expectations will be confirmed or adjusted as the week progresses. Strong signals like we had for today make the money, but we must be patient and wait for them.  Our market structure remains positive and has flattened, our Anticipatory trend is positive so there should be some more upside to come prior to year end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 17, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our programs are at full strength for Tuesday.  I took my own suggestion from Friday and purchased a small amount of Apple stock on Monday.  I was waiting for a strong signal to give it some propulsion.... I believe banks have more real estate than they need.  Between Internet banking, the decline in retail revenue and closed businesses the banks have significantly fewer visible customers. Their large cavernous buildings have a hollow ring.  For now long term leases are holding them back.  I expect that at some point they will close offices, subdivide or at least move into smaller shelters. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 14, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We managed to squeeze a small gain in all accounts for the week as most indexes closed lower.  Our market structure remains at a high level and is working its way lower which should mean more upside for the market.  AAPL closed down almost 4% on Friday.  The PE ratio is close to where it was in December of 2008.  I do not own Apple shares but it looks like a good long term buy at these levels with a $500 price probably providing strong support.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 13, 2012

Current position for Friday: Retirement program Short: 20% NDX inverse 1x fund. All other  programs 100% money market.  Early strength vanished and  markets fell as the assessment of the FED move was negative. Our signals turned mostly flat going into Friday.  A peek into our T-Index shows that it continues in strong deflationary territory sitting at the -400 level. It has been signaling deflation since September 15 2008.  This is our fourth year in a contraction mode. Dull market as we have not had a strong signal in three weeks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 12, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our  market structure, continues at a high level, and remains paused.  Our signal did turn moderately positive and we moved back into a partially long position. The S&P has made six straight gains but has only increased 1.5% in total.  Our probability page shows a good probability to go higher but the NDX negative amplitude shows a large potential risk.... The FED said it would continue easing with targets for unemployment rates. The low interest rates continue to support the expansion plans of our multinational corporations as they compete with companies of other major countries in a world scramble to gain a foot hold in the emerging markets.  Kind of like the early land rushes in the USA.  Meanwhile the surplus of available labor here and weak real estate prices makes the eventual rebuilding of US manufacturing even more of a possibility.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 11, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Strong day, but I do not expect much follow through. All signals went flat and our market structure, though at a high level, paused and most likely the market will pause with it.  FED meeting and announcement on Tuesday.  The FED has been mostly ineffective in reducing real unemployment (when you count those that fall off the list) so I do not believe investors expect any big market moving impact.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 10, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal has turned moderately long for Tuesday and we are partially long.  I would very much like to see a strong signal either way but they have been absent for almost three weeks.  The last week in December has been historically good for stocks, but the four days from the 11th through the 14th of December has not been, so we are going against the trend for Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 7, 2012

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% money market.  Sorry missed posting left early after market close on Friday and did not return until Monday. Held money market positions in all groups. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 6, 2012

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% money market.  Even though the market structure is now in a strong positive area we are not getting the strong signals to commit. Apple's rebound was my concern yesterday and that accounted for about 45% of Thursdays NDX move.  Overall the market continues with a positive structure and has the support of the normal year end positive market tendencies. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 5, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   Apple represents about 20% of the value of the NDX and Apple plunged over 6% on Wednesday sending the NDX down over 1%. The main reason for trading an index is that the individual stock quirks can be smoothed out.  Not so smooth when one demon is so large it distorts the rest. The 6% drop was the worst for Apple since 2008.  Our signal switched sides but if Apple adjusts upward, we may get slammed again. Meanwhile most other indexes did close higher in line with expectations.  And their is still good reason to expect a sustained rally over the next few days. 

There seems to be an abnormal focus on taxes this past year and there is a reason, but not the one we have been hearing.  The problem is business has no place to put the money that they are earning and they don't want to pay taxes on it.  When business is booming there are many expenditures that can boost future business while getting a near term write off so they don't mind the high rates because they don't have to pay them.  When I was publishing software and business was good I would mail out more catalogs this year to support more business next year, while being able to take the expense in the earlier year. When business was bad it made no sense to "waste" money on sending out catalogs so whatever income that came in could not be sheltered.  It is not high taxes that are hurting business it is poor business that are causing the complaints against high taxes. If the top earners felt that business was getting better they would not be complaining.  This tells me we may remain in a flat or down economy for an extended period of time.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 4, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal has turned moderately long after spending the last five days in the money market.  Our Anticipatory trend also turned long while our market structure began its decent off of the maximum level.  The recent pause should be enough for the market to move higher as the week progresses but I would like to see stronger signals at my end.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: December 3, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs 100% money market.  *Please note the original posting for position on November 30 did not note the 20% position in the Retirement program.  This recent flat position should end by tomorrow and by Wednesday we should see a resumption of the up-trend.  The market structure should provide enough energy for the NDX  to challenge the April and perhaps the September highs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 30, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund*(corrected). All other programs 100% money market.  Having patience is a large part of making money, that, and a solid knowledge of risk and market exposure.  Avoiding catastrophic failure should always be the first condition of every investment program. And that begins with who is holding your money.  Do you have easy access to your money or is it "tied up" for six months or a year or more.  We don't hold your money, you open your account directly with Rydex mutual funds. We post our positions for all to see within hours of making the transaction. We don't take the other side of your transaction.  Our money rides along side yours same direction same price. No front running no secret positions, total transparency and excellent returns. I am quite certain we have the longest running real money advanced position posts on the web.

Our market structure reached its highest level and that indicates that there is strong potential for more up-side to continue for a number of weeks.  Kind of like being at the top of a hill or having your gas tank full. I expect to see more positive activity after Monday.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 29, 2012

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% money market.  The market structure is now near the highest level which should provide fuel for a continued rally.  Our signal however remains neutral along with the anticipatory trend. So the market direction over the coming month is most likely positive but for Friday we see it as uncertain and remain in the money market.  Cutbacks in government programs next year should quickly filter down to cuts in the work force and cause diminished capital flowing to supporting smaller business.  Just more of what we suffered through since 2008. This should have a negative impact on housing which could put an end to the slight improvements we saw this year. With Europe in poor shape the US dollar could hold its own, keeping a lid on the overseas earnings of our multinationals.  I do not expect to see much market index growth next year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 28, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  All programs 100% money market.  We remain hidden away in the money market for another day. The probabilities have improved but the negative amplitude for the NDX does not look good. Our signal remained flat so we will just watch. Our anticipatory trend continues neutral and the market-structure level continues to improve. The more positive level should lead to another longer lived rally. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 27, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs 100% money market.  Our market-structure level climbed again and is now in the center of the positive range.  Probabilities improved slightly and Wednesday is normally a positive day, but these things are not enough to risk client money or our own.  Probabilities for the upside most likely will improve for Thursday and Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 26, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Rydex Money market.   Hot Money program is  Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our structure level improved as expected, but this does not translate into immediate market strength. It is more like driving up a hill. As a car goes up a hill it gains in "potential" energy which can be used later on the way down the hill. So we are seeing the market "store" energy which should, in a number of days, be converted into a higher price for the indexes. In this regard I am expecting a down Tuesday for the NDX.  Since most other indexes had closed down they may not follow.  The up move in the NDX on Monday was all due to Apple which has an exaggerated influence on the NDX index.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 23, 2012

Current position for Monday:  All programs 100% money market.  On Friday I saw our market structure strengthen, moving off of the bottom of the positive market range that had remained constant since October 24. The NDX has moved about 4.5% off the low of last week and I think it could  move another 4.5% higher between now and the end of the year.  If the market follows a normal path, we should see the market "structure" continue to strengthen this coming week and I would expect only small market gains during this "structure building" period.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 21, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal is long but weak and we reduced our exposure for Friday.  Friday is a shortened day so don't snooze late.  Early pre-markets are leaning a small amount higher. Happy Thanksgiving.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 20, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a  strong signal for the day prior to Thanksgiving. Our expectation is for a small up day with many traders away from their desks.  HP, the once great technology company suffers through another disaster saying their purchase of Autonomy in 2011 was based on fraud. HP shares lost 12% on Tuesday.  Can we feel bad for a company who for so many years was selling us grossly overpriced printer ink?  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 19, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Apple after losing 25% from its high jumped over 7% on Monday and helped the NDX climb over 2.4%.  We reduced our exposure as our signals weakened. So far I would not look for this to be the start of a long term rally. As I said Friday, often there is just a sudden mind-set change and the market picks a new direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 16, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  So far all rally attempts have been small and generally met with some selling.  Not much to like about a market where even Twinkies have gone bankrupt. Still the mild down turn keeps traders somewhat optimistic while keeping the blood flowing. Politics should continue to beat this market lower, but often there is just a sudden mind-set change. And the market picks a new direction.  With half our programs in the money market there is not much to say about Monday's direction. Friday's positive close would normally be a positive sign but this is a weak market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: November 15, 2012

Current position for Friday:  All programs 100% money market.  Most days early strength is drained away leaving a small loss. Since the market top on September 19 the market has gone down about 65% of the trading days. In our primary program our "long" trades were correct 50% of the time (a good number in a down turn) and our "short" trades were correct 85% of the time, indicating that our program is functioning correctly. Unfortunately we still sustained a loss over this period as losing trades were larger than winning trades.  This is mostly due to news, after the close, which either helps or hinders our trades. What is important for the long term is that the program shows more calls right than wrong.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 14, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The down draft continues and the NDX has reached our first oversold level.  Market movements are still rather small cloaking what could be a longer term decline.  So far our market structure remains flat keeping the longer term in the dark. You do not have to worry about the drop in retail sales due to hurricane Sandy. The reports will neglect the great amount of buying that will soon take place to replace damaged goods. This will kick start the economy on the East coast.  The overall size of the decline is more normally associated with a larger VIX but  very low interest rates combined with the small daily changes is keeping the VIX low.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 13, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We continue to have mixed signals and are holding our partial position.  Cisco reported after the close and their good results sent the NDX futures up 1/2% in the early aftermarket. When there is no clear consensus it is easy for the news to blow the market in either direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 12, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  No consensus. Our aggressive programs moved out of the market as our more conservative increased their long exposure.  Overall the market moves are still small  indicating that the long term bull market remains in effect. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 9, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We maintained our mixed position for Monday. The Vix remains below long time averages indicating a lack of fear in investors. Our market structure remains slightly positive and steady over the past two weeks.  I expect a continuation of the bumpy ride near term. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 8, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our probabilities are leaning lower and we have moved our Hot money and Primary programs partially "short".  Probabilities for the S&P look weaker than for the NDX.  If we go lower on Friday I would expect a continuation into Monday, so things could look very bad.  Our market structure continues to hold at its lowest positive level. This level could also be considered the top of the transition area although most often we have seen the structure recover without ever dropping into the deeper levels of transition or bear market zone.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 7, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have reduced our exposure for Thursday.  The Obama victory was predicted by the polls so it did not come as a surprise, but the market response certainly looked like it was. Last time Obama was elected the S&P dropped over 5% but that was in the midst of a terrible bear market. Obama has been great for the Multinationals providing them with cheap money for overseas expansion.  Today's sell off put the 20 day NDX market change very close to over-sold territory and our "Bottom" indicator has not been triggered. The market structure remains barely positive and holding. Anticipatory trend remains positive. The NDX has corrected over 8.5% since September 18 but we do not yet see it moving to the dark side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 6, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A strong signal for the day after elections. Hopefully the results will be final.  Our market structure remains positive and holding, we await a change to get a longer term clue.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 5, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The normal Tuesday reversing Monday's direction. On the positive side all signals are long and Election day usually leans positive.  On the negative side, positive Monday's tend to lead into weak Tuesdays. Currently the aftermarket is lower.  Our market structure is holding at the low end of the positive range, still hopeful of a market recovery.  I expect that once the election results are firm the market structure will give us a heads up for the longer term.  I just learned of Terry Laundry's passing sometime in July, the financial community has lost a great abstract thinker.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 2, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% money market.    Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We did get a rather large drop Friday ~1.16% in the NDX. This made the NDX, change for the week, negative, while our Primary and Hot Money programs made solid gains for the week. The Retirement program gained slightly while the  long/money- market program slipped a little.  Once again a bad Apple........ AAPL down -3.31%, accounting for over half the loss in the NDX.  So far no Election rally in sight.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: November 1, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% money market.     Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I apologize for yesterday's late post. Today our signal flicked near the close and we moved our Primary and Hot money programs into the money market.  All signals did however close long for Friday. The probabilities for Friday are very positive but the amplitudes lean heavily on the negative, which means most likely the market will go higher, but if it doesn't, the drop could be large (greater than -1.5%).  Chris Christie's complements to Obama and New York Mayor Bloomberg's endorsing of Obama will most likely mean re-election for the president.  Hopefully it will also mean more cooperation between both parties moving forward.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 31, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Overall the markets survived Sandy.  The NDX suffered due to damage from Apple's house cleaning. The changes should be good for Apple and I expect we will see Apple make another run at the $700 mark. Due to the heavy weight of Apple on the NDX the index does get distorted both on the positive and negative side from every Apple hiccup. Apple is now down 15.5% from its recent peak. Looking at the market structure we see that it remains positive and is moving along its base level.  The 20 day market trend remains negative and the anticipatory trend is positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 29, 2012

This terrible east coast storm should have some positive effects on the local economy. Government money will get delivered where it is most needed, on the ground instead of into the pockets of the banks and multinationals. Emergency jobs, (though temporary) and purchases of storm supplies will help stimulate the local economy where all of Bernanke's dancing the bond twist could never reach. Markets should hopefully open on Wednesday. 

Comments: October 26, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All our programs showed small gains this week as the market indexes drifted lower.  We have now gone long in every program. Monday should be an interesting day as the Monday, a week prior to elections, has a propensity for going lower ahead of the next six-day, positive, election-market tendency. Amazon gained almost 7% on Friday after announcing a loss yesterday afternoon after the market closed. This should be a psychological boost for the markets after their recent tendency to discount good news. The market structure remains barely positive but holding. I expect an up-trending week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 25, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The Primary and Hot money programs have moved to the money market for Friday.  AMZN and AAPL missed on earnings in the after-market but are only down in the -1% range. The indexes have followed and will most likely be under some pressure tomorrow. For a market that has discounted recent good news I would have expected a larger drop from the techs. The stock market could make up for the recent slide next week as elections approach. Our market structure remains positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 24, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We held our long position, but reduced our exposure on our two conservative programs. The market structure remains in the positive zone but is now firmly on the bottom shelf, from here it can either hold, climb, or fall into the transition zone towards the negative. The steps lower have been slow and that indicates the structure will strengthen rather than slip over the next few days. It could however climb then rapidly descend through the transition which is something I am concerned about after the election. Today's market was not interested in good news and seemed to just want to slip lower most of the day. This is not the type of response we expect in a bull market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 23, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal turned long and the probabilities look good.  All programs are long.  Facebook beat earnings expectations and jumped about 9% after the close, this was more than balanced by Netflix whose shares slipped more than -15%.  For an overview on this market: The market structure remains in the positive zone, but is near the bottom and holding. It could slip into a more dangerous negative area. The 20 day trend is clearly negative, it bounced off of an oversold condition on Monday and is now slipping back, but is no longer oversold. Our Anticipatory trend is positive and should help our long position.  I expect more choppy activity and next week an election fueled rally.  This could cause the market to exhaust itself and fall into a more negative structural zone. We are watching. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 22, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.   Our program finds the underlying directional tendencies of the market which gives us an edge over the long term, but we still must contend with the news on a day by day basis. This evening it is Yahoo's good news helping the aftermarket lean higher. Our conservative programs are in the money market and our aggressive programs are partially short for Tuesday. Tonight's presidential debate should add to Tuesday's market direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 19, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market meltdown was quick and brutal.  Although the NDX has now lost -4.3% for October our Hot money program, which carries  similar risk as measured by total market exposure, still shows a gain of 1.0% for this month.... The 20 day trend dropped into an oversold condition and should mean the market will bottom out close to this level.  Our market structure model continues to show the market in a positive area and holding. Our Anticipatory trend also remains positive. With the outside force of the elections generally adding a positive note the markets should be able to keep from crumbling into the early part of November. Our market structure should be able to alert us if the market slips into a longer term decline. The Vix climbed over 17 today which means a little more volatility and that is helpful to our program as it adds more definition to the signals. I am not concerned by the chance of a longer term decline as the horrendous 2008 marked our best year, but all trading involves risk of loss as we have seen this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 18, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We held  our positions into Friday.  The market structure is now positive and steady.  Even with Thursday's slide we were able to hold on to about 30% of the gains we made earlier in the week.  Google missed earnings estimates and it makes up almost 6% of the weight in the NDX, sending that index down hard. I disagree with reports that mobile is causing the cost per click ads to drop. The poor economy is the cause of cost per click falling. And in Google's case their strong growth in revenue will prevail.  Money flows from the less informed to the more informed and it is very difficult to be among the more informed when you trade individual stocks.  We can't forecast the news but we are able to provide strong insight into the most likely market direction for the next day, sans news, statistically, over the longer term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 17, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund. We are long and leveraged going into Thursday.  The market structure is positive but weakening. With the outside influence of the elections coming up I am concerned that the elections could mark the end of this year's rally as it may deplete the money needed to continue to push the markets higher. If the market structure was at a stronger level I would not be concerned, though we may see some rebuilding going into next week.  Our Anticipatory trend turned positive, the NDX had a one day pause and our probabilities are strong.  Ebay's earnings were good with expectations in-line nothing on the negative side so far.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 16, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We benefited from a very strong up day on Tuesday which pushed our Hot money program up over 41.5% ytd and our Primary program over +29.5% ytd. Regards to risk our Hot money program has approximately the same long term exposure to the market as the NDX and the Primary program is 30% less exposed. Our focus is always low risk, then high returns. As we go into the election season the markets will experience some abnormal influences that do not occur other times during the year.  There is a pre election uptrend.  Some investors believe the annual rally is politically motivated, but that part does not matter since traders believe it they buy the market and make it happen. (Often enough that it causes abnormal trading.)  The current market structure remains positive and holding. The Anticipatory trend turned neutral and Tuesdays strong market probably over shot itself. This leaves the market vulnerable to at lease a one day correction and it is still too early in October for the positive election influence to take hold.  We have taken a partial short position, reducing our exposure to the markets in all accounts. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 15, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have gone long and leveraged for Tuesday. The dark clouds are (1.) Tuesday's generally go opposite Monday's direction and (2). There is always something, like the news, which we can't forecast. (3.) The twenty day market trend is negative, (which encourages selling).  Other than that we should be good on the upside.  I expect two rallies prior to elections. I believe we have just seen the start of the first one, and this one could last a few days. Next week could turn colder to the markets as it gets ready for the traditional election rally, which generally starts the week prior to elections.... If you get all your news from TV or the Wall Street Journal be aware that you are missing out on the non-USA point of view.  An interesting article in the Financial Times today by Edward Luce who points out that although mostly all we hear in America about Mexico are the drug and immigration problems, Mexico is turning into America's most important trading partner.  Ten years ago 800,000 Mexicans crossed the border into the US, (mostly illegal), now the flow is from the US back into Mexico....Chinese wage inflation is trimming the gap between China and Mexico's labor costs.  In 2000 China labor rates were $0.35 per hour vs Mexico's $1.72.  Now it is $1.63 per hour vs Mexico's $2.11.  At some point it may be Mexico who will be looking to tighten border security.....Stock-market-wise our market structure remains positive and holding, and our Anticipatory trend remain positive, both good for the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 12, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long:25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 33% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The early gain in the NDX fizzled and left us with less than a 1 point to the upside. Monday's signal was sloppy near the close and we reduced our exposure by 2/3's in our aggressive programs. The outlook for Monday looks neutral with the Anticipatory trend holding its long position. The market structure remains in positive territory and is holding.  Continued market downside action, though possible, should be limited as we are getting closer to the elections.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 11, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our more aggressive funds have moved long and leveraged for Friday.  The market should be ready for another up-side push that could last a few days at least.  Apple drove the NDX down today and is now 11% off its high. Last week's elections debate seemed to give stocks a push maybe we will see it again.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 10, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our conservative programs have turned partially long while our more aggressive programs moved into the money market.  Our Anticipatory trend turned long and the market appears to be in a rebuilding stage which could last another day or two prior to the most likely scenario which would be a strong move higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 9, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 20% Inverse Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a timid long for Wednesday.  Our Anticipatory trend stayed neutral and the last 20 days were negative for the NDX motivating the down side. The market structure remains positive and slowly building strength providing a basis for another rally that is expected over the next few days.  Alcoa reported a loss but beat estimates. Corporations and analysts are now trying to down play expectations.  Overall we are only partially exposed to this market for Wednesday and news could whip the market in either direction.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 8, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse 1x fund.  Apple's recent problems with the Iphone 5 both in operation and production are magnifying the drop in the NDX.  I expect another down day for Tuesday.  The market trend has flattened but is still positive, Anticipatory trend turned neutral and the market structure, as expected, remains in the positive area. From a statistical point of view the downside correction should be small unless the market structure transitions to the negative area, but that has not happened and I don't think it will happen just yet. A look at our probabilities shows that they are negative but the amplitudes are well contained.  Overall it appears we have a dip in the road but no cliff.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 5, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Rydex Money market. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets were little changed except for the NDX which lost about 0.6%. We are holding our partially long position. The NDX now shows a decline over its last 20 trading days, encouraging traders to tip the scales to the down side. I continue to look for small changes.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 4, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% Rydex Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Rydex Money market. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets made a small move higher and we moved our two aggressive programs into the money market for Friday. If things continue as expected we should see a continuing holding pattern with little movement in either direction. After a number of days I expect to see more upside action.  Of course we will act according to our daily signals which might override our longer term expectations.  Good chance for a small pull back prior to the weekend, especially in the tech sector considering the news from HP and Zynga.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 3, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We remain long and leveraged for Thursday, but the market seems to have lost its momentum.  I expect a small upside move on Thursday then great difficulty ahead for the market to make much more progress. From a market structure point of view there are two stable areas for the market to be in.  One is positive and the other negative.  Once in one of these areas the market will cycle between more positive and less positive and on the other side more negative and less negative.  Getting from one area to the other involves a transition.  At the current time we are in a positive area but at the base, where the market could easily make the transition into the negative area.  Since the movements going down to the base have been small I believe it will make another climb back up without slipping into the transition, or even the negative area.  Unfortunately the current area is a rather dead zone and I don't expect to see much happening. I don't expect to see anything significant coming out of the first debate, but investors should be a little bit encouraged and bid the market a bit higher on Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 2, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  No change in our long position for Wednesday.  Our probabilities improved a bit and the potential downside now looks less threatening.  Money flow looks strong for the rest of the week and the market appears in a good position to continue higher short term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: October 1, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We moved all programs to their fully long limits.  Our Anticipatory trend remains long, our long term trend is long and the market structure is very sound.  Outside the market's internal structure it appears that a bunch of fools are running the show, either unaware of what is necessary to grow the economy or deliberately trying to bring down wages, real estate prices and the dollar to later launch a more competitive offensive against foreign economies.  It is not even political.  The stock market does not seem to be negatively affected by the misplaced activity. Though stronger than one would expect the market is still behaving in a normal fashion and has been easy to read, even under these low volatility conditions.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     
 

Comments: September 28, 2012

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With the structure of the market still strong, and our signals all long, I expect a rising market on Monday unless some bad news over the weekend blindsides us.  Friday's indexes gave back about 50% of the gains made on Thursday and have held above the level prior to the QE3 announcement.  Our aggressive programs had an excellent week with our Hot money program closing up over 30% year-to-date and our Primary program up  22% year-to-date.  Our Primary program runs at about 30% less exposure risk than the NDX and has run at a 16% compound annual rate. (less fees).   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 27, 2012

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Friday brings us a strange mix with two programs long and two short. This does not happen very often.  The programs do follow their own algorithms and they are not all influenced by the same things so it is possible.  Thursday the markets retraced about half of what they had lost from the highs of mid last week.  Investors should still be skittish from the recent downturn and may not want to add to their long positions over the weekend. This could lead to a small change day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 26, 2012

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All of our programs have turned long with our more aggressive programs leveraged.  Our longer term trend remains long and our Anticipatory trend turned long, very positive for the market. The negative, from a "trend" point of view, is that the indexes over the past month have flattened out. If the market continues to go negative there could be more selling pressure from the technicians.  The NDX has pulled back to the closing high of March 27th and I expect it to bounce off that level and go higher short term.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 25, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market.  Yesterday we mentioned revenue downgrades, today we got one from Caterpillar going forward into 2015. Caterpillar is the world's largest manufacturer of construction equipment and as such reflects world growth. Not good.  On the Apple front, worker unrest severe enough to cause a 2000 person riot in China's Foxconn could be very bad news for Apple down the road. It is spelled sabotage, and if the workers take it out on the Iphone the damages may not show up in the completed phones for a number of months and then it is a public relations problem.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 24, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.  Still no signal to speak of, although it appears that QE3 is holding the market up there does not seem to be much energy in either direction. Longer term revenue figures should continue to decline and the corporations will make up for it by cutting heads. This is a good scenario for holding steady. The revenue downgrades will keep the stock gains down while QE3 will keep the market above water. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 21, 2012

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.  The indices closed basically unchanged on the day as the early rally faded. Our signals remain flat and we continue to protect our capital from the randomness of the news by remaining in the money market in these less certain conditions.  Our Anticipatory trend is neutral while our longer term trend is strong but flattening.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 20, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.  More of nothing in the markets. Probabilities are flat and we remain in the money market.  There should be some QE3 band wagon money waiting to come back on board, don't know how long they can wait.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 19, 2012

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market.  Wednesday was another quiet day with little change.  The probabilities for Thursday are leaning to the down side. I expect a small pullback as part of this topping action.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 18, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market.  The markets turned quiet. We see a continuation of this pause, and realize it can be broken in either direction by the strength of the news.  Awaiting a stronger signal prior to exposing our assets to risk.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 17, 2012

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All of our programs have turned long, but the signal is only moderate and so are not fully exposed.  I believe we are looking at some topping action this week and that both the upside and downside should be limited.  Our money flow is flat to positive all week long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 14, 2012

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.  The markets continued to climb on the QE3 news.  This news is good for the stock market but will not help the local economy.  It also seems to be a bank bailout as banks still hold a lot of the semi-junk paper.  Banks need reserves to cover potential losses on the mortgage backed securities that they are holding. This gives them a way to pass the c*** off to the government and free up some money.  The FED claims an ongoing $40 billion in bond buying a month into 2015.  That looks like $1.5 Trillion or more to me. This should continue to devalue the dollar. A lower dollar devalues the purchasing power.  This combined with the low yield investors are getting due to this FED move means less money circulating in the economy.  A shrinking economy means less jobs.  The lower dollar will make overseas earnings look better, (very short term), but sales will continue to suffer, shrinking the top line, and eventually so will stock prices. Give the FED an F.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 13, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.  Signal is neutral to slightly lower. The FED announced QE3.  This is good for multinational stocks, not very good for the economy.  How it works: The FED buys mortgage backed securities. This should push interest rates down.  Lower rates overall will allow the banks to lend at lower rates and pay lower rates. The 10 year treasuries which many retired people hold for income is now 1.76% this means a retired person with $1 million can expect to earn $17,600 a year on their investment.  Add social security (if the have it) and they will earn about $42,000. Prior to the real-estate collapse, say the end of 2007, they would have gotten 4% on the Treasuries and a total earnings of about $64,400. The $22,400 difference per person is money that would be spent in the economy.  With, say, 1 million retired people in this situation there is 22 billion dollars a year not being spent from the bottom up in the economy. That is a great reason for the lack of jobs.  With low interest rates and little buying from within the USA the money will be borrowed at low interest by multinational corporations who are capable of expanding outside the US where economies are still growing and returns are better. It seems that the potential for spurring the economy from the bottom up has been neglected by the FED.  When having a million dollars is a reason to be below the poverty line it is something to be taken seriously. Low interest rates are usually a good thing, but this time the FED has blinders on and does not see, or does not want to see, all the implications. I welcome your comments. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 12, 2012

Current position for Thursday: Retirement program is Short, 20% Rydex Inverse  NDX 1x fund.   Other three programs are in the money market.  Signal is neutral to lower. Trend remains positive with money flow negative, topping action over last three weeks is a negative. Still we have the FED wild card to contend with so a neutral position is safe.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 11, 2012

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money Market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money Market.  J P Morgan says that Apple IPhone 5 sales could add a half% point to the GDP.  From my viewpoint this is about as empty as a 1/2% could get.  Apple pays near zero taxes and hoards its profits. It just recently started to pay a small dividend. Basically  It just sucks money out of the US economy and into its black box of cash overseas.  With full control from manufacture to sales they are able to shift profits so that they are shown overseas and not in the US.  Apple has stashed over $60 billion overseas and is now complaining that they can't bring it back without paying what they should have paid in the first place.  I just can't get that warm fuzzy feeling over Apple, but it is certainly a well run company. 

Our Anticipatory trend is neutral but our view of the longer term trend is positive and strengthening. Wednesday is slightly positive with a negative cash flow coming in for Thursday. After that it looks positive again.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 10, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: Retirement program is Short, 20% Rydex Inverse  NDX 1x fund.   Other three programs are in the money market.  The NDX was hit hard on Monday.  Normal reaction would be a small recovery on Tuesday, but with a negative money flow and flat probabilities it could easily go either way.  As I mentioned on Friday we continue to see the NDX negative amplitude (in the probability table) turn more negative.  Most likely we will see some more negatives this week followed by a recovery next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 7, 2012

Current position for Monday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our signal remains long and strong.  Friday the Intel news hindered progress in the NDX but most other indexes climbed higher.  I expect at least one more day of upside action in the markets prior to any pause/retreat.  Looking at the probabilities we do see the negative amplitudes starting to turn more negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 6, 2012

Current position for Friday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our signal paid off for Thursday and remains long for Friday.  Normally a strong up day following two weak days (like we just had) does not provide for a good follow through, but our signal takes more than price action into account so we are holding on.  Next week the story should change as between the 11th and 17th we see money flow as either flat or negative.  This should have a dampening effect on the continuation of the rally. In addition, large daily moves like we saw on Thursday often bring instability to markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 5, 2012

Current position for Thursday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Another lack-luster day in the market.  Our signal remains strong and we remain fully invested.  Our outlook over the next few days remains positive barring strong adverse news or a change in our daily signal.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: September 4, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our signal gained strength for Wednesday.   After a trip lower,  then higher, Tuesday ended as a flat day.  As far as our indicators go the downward money flow pressure that sat on stocks from last Thursday through today is now over and higher prices prevail, look for new highs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 31, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our anticipatory trend turned long and all signals are now positive for Tuesday.  I worked on our longer term trend model and it appears that the QE influences, past and possibly future continue to hold the market up. The current trend can best be described as neutral but teetering, safe for awhile, but a few bad days could start a downward plunge.  A look at the upcoming money flow shows it to be positive after Tuesday.  With these conditions in place I expect to see another stab at the recent highs. All of our programs show gains for August.  Have a safe weekend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 30, 2012

Current position for Friday :  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money Market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   Mixed signals for Friday.  Our programs either reduced, eliminated or reversed exposure for Friday. The news did not seem that negative with unemployment figures hardly changed and retail sales higher than expected.  Perhaps the negative money flow influence was greater than anticipated. That cause of downward pressure should continue for two more days.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 29, 2012

Current position for Thursday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our signal expects that other elements will overcome the expected negative influence from money flow and has moved us to the up-side for Thursday.  Our anticipatory trend turned positive and our longer term trend remains positive.  The markets remain very dead and we were in the money market for the past five trading days.  Normally market patterns are positive prior to a holiday and if the Republican Convention has made investors more enthusiastic we will see a bounce here.  In my Aug 26 comments I said I expected to see the NDX hit 2800 prior to a decline and that still holds.  If we get a pop Thursday it may be short lived since we still have negative money flow through Tuesday and the reaction to Benanke's Friday talk is an unknown.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 28, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100%  money market.  More of nothing, but be aware of the price of oil.  A climb in oil prices  is bad for the health of the market. Since oil acts as a tax on consumers it has a negative impact on sales for all corporations. So far this has not been a problem for the markets, but a climb lasting more than a couple of weeks could cause trouble.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 27, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100%  money market.  Apple kept the NDX positive on Monday.  The indexes are looking tired to me, but I am not getting any information outside of the potentially negative money flow influence late in the week.  Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral and long term trend positive.  And from the fundamentals, although we could be looking at an increase in the GDP number, we are not seeing it in the revenue stream from the major corporations. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 26, 2012

Current position for Monday: All programs 100%  money market.  Apple's legal win of $1 Billion from Samsung should pop their price and that of the NDX on Monday.  I expect a pop to and probably through the 2800 level for the NDX prior to a drop later in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 23, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100%  money market.  A little life on the downside on Thursday, but no directional signal for Friday.  We have some early indication of negative money flow for the last two days of this month and first day in September but nothing is currently in view.  The longer term trend remains long and strong and I don't see any major negative between now and the end of the month.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 22, 2012

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100%  money market.  Once again we take our gain and move back into the money market.  The S&P and NDX turned around late in the day to close higher but the other indexes remained under water.  Our Anticipatory trend slipped back to neutral as did our money flow indicator. Our probabilities are leaning higher but the amplitudes are larger on the down side. This is the kind of ho hum market that can catch a trader by surprise or put one to sleep.  HP earnings beat, but like most other companies revenues were below estimates.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 21, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We have a strong signal for Wednesday.  Our Anticipatory trend turned long joining our longer term trend.  Dell beat on earnings after the close, but like most other companies could not deliver on sales or forward sales estimates. This pattern should catch up to the markets later in the year.  To date the markets have been selectively punishing the high flyers who could not deliver while protecting the averages.  But soon the selective destruction will spread as the bulk of the market falls short in the sales category.  I don't expect it to happen tomorrow as the markets look poised for a gain.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 20, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100%  money market.  Wish we could take a position but the market movements have dried up.  We got a negative signal about a minute prior to the close but too late to trade, and the signal was considered unstable.   Interesting note on how two companies tried to fit a square peg in a round hole.  Ron Johnson left Apple to go to JC Penny, but instead of taking what he learned from Target his earlier employer he took his experience from Apple and tried to apply it to JC Penny.  Wrong comparison.  Different customers and different products, he was very good at Apple but should have known better with JCP as his changes were a factor in their loosing 4 billion in sales.  On the flip side Apple hired John Browett as head of retail.  Browett made his own mistakes in carrying over his experience from Europe's Dixon Retail. John cut the hours of the store employees in a mistaken attempt to reduce costs.  Discount and high end do not translate very well.  To Apple's credit they caught and rectified the mistake, JCP has not and the damage may be irreparable.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 17, 2012

Current position for Monday: Retirement program is Short, 20% Rydex Inverse  NDX 1x fund.   Other three programs are in the money market.  Monday often follows Friday's lead and small up-days have been the norm lately so another day like Friday might be in the making for Monday. We held all our positions as our Signals remain unchanged from Friday.  Probabilities are mixed with amplitudes leaning to the down-side.  Our money flow indicator remains "negative" and our Anticipatory trend remains "neutral".  Our longer term trend is up and remains strong. Apple is giving the NDX a push as the stock climbs in anticipation of the new Iphone and 7" tablet release.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 16, 2012

Current position for Friday: Retirement program is Short, 20% Rydex Inverse  NDX 1x fund.   Other three programs are in the money market.  Thursday's 1.2% jump in the NDX made the six days spent in the money market worthwhile. But the rally looks like it might stall for a couple of days as Friday and Monday show negative cash flow and could be enough to dampen the enthusiasm.  Reports on every twitch in Europe have dried up and the market is, when awake, focused once again on the US. Facebook took a 6% hit on the lock up expiration. This could happen again as there are more lock ups to expire. The last one could easily surprise to the upside so beware.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 15, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Finally after six days in the money market our signal strengthened and we moved moderately long.  Our Anticipatory trend also turned "long" indicating that this could last a few days. . After the close we got support from Cisco's earning beat and dividend hike.  Earlier in the day Staples took the other side and plunged ~15% on flat sales and more importantly declining gross margins and computer sales.  This should be bad news for everything from computers, printers, inks and paper.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 14, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market.  A recap of the current situation:  Markets remain mostly flat, not providing enough activity to trigger either positive or negative indications of direction.  Our longer term trend remains positive, but at a level that makes it vulnerable to a short term pull back.  Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral which supports the potential pull back.  Our probabilities are mixed and not providing any information.   My assessment is, the bulls have run out of steam but the bears are not interested.  Patience.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 13, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.  Yet another flat signal and another mostly flat day.  The market shook off an early decline and the NDX managed to close up two tenths.  These market flat spots do not occur that often and generally terminate to the up side.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 10, 2012...sorry late post

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.  Still no clean signal, but for the first time this week our probabilities are starting to look negative.  Our Anticipatory trend remains "neutral" and I am changing my view for Monday to slightly negative. But still not enough to put money on the table.  The first wave of Facebook insiders get to sell late next week so it will be interesting to watch the stock price.  Patience is a large part of making money consistently so we shall wait.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 9, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.   Most likely no relief in this flat trading until Monday.  We have no change in our indicators.  Our expectations are that the next directional  move will be higher, but we are waiting for our trading signal prior to risking our market exposure.  Without a signal it is too easy for any fringe news to blow the market in either direction.  When we do have a signal there is good reason to believe that the substance behind the signal will overcome smaller news items allowing the signal's direction to prevail. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 8, 2012

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market.   The rally flattened and it looks like it will continue to remain flat another day.  We remain on the sidelines looking for the next turn in either direction.  So far I have little clue.  The primary trend remains long and strong enough to continue.  Our Anticipatory trend is neutral, and money flow is flat to positive over the rest of this week and early into next week, then it turns lower. The small changes are not providing much in the way of emotional components to the trading. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 7, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market.   Expect a flattening of the rally at this point.  Our Anticipatory trend has turned neutral, our money flow turned positive and our signal is fully neutral.  Some of today's gain could have been powered by the high short position registered at the NYSE.  Our probability table shows our probabilities continuing to lean higher, but we are seeing more risk on the down side with larger negative amplitudes. Like always we move ahead cautiously, one day at a time.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 6, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :  Primary program is 100% money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a mild long signal for Tuesday.  Our Anticipatory trend turned positive, aligned with our longer term trend, and this should help carry the market higher.  We have not had a strong signal for a week so we are only partially exposed to the market action.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 3, 2012

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.   All our signals turned neutral for Monday. Our longer term trend turned back positive but at the same time our Anticipatory trend turned neutral.  The big jump today was a surprise ending to a blah week.  I am not looking for much in the way of carry-over or retracement for Monday and have moved fully to the sidelines.  Perhaps today's move was over-enthusiastic.  We hear a lot of talk on the employment numbers. Don't pay attention to the political comments on unemployment.  When real unemployment is at double digit levels and stores are vacant, money must be put in the hands of the consumer.  Unless they spend, businesses can't expand and hire.  This is a bottom up problem.  When unemployment is at reasonable levels and you want to stroke the economy it is a top down problem and you want to get money into the hands of business so they can expand.  Unfortunately politicians only speak a one-sided  language and do not allow for both realities.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 2, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   No change in our position.  With the NDX moving barely more than a third of a percent in either direction over the past four trading days we are adrift without wind for our sails.  The VIX moved lower giving the expectation of more small daily changes to come. Good time for a vacation. At some point unexpected news will give the markets a sharp kick, one way or the other.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 1, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 20% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We made some changes to our Forecast page making our 2012 results easier to find.  With the downturn in the precious metals this year and our own good start we are once again ahead of all mutual funds from Jan 2006 to date. We are also ahead of all mutual funds during that time period on a risk adjusted basis (as measured by market exposure). This is very important as being #1 does not count unless it holds after you adjust for risk.... Another small-change day with the NDX, DOW and S&P500 down about 1/4%. The RUT is in its own world having lost about 3% in the past three days.  Our longer term trend turned neutral as our Anticipatory trend remained long.  Money flow went negative.  Overall we have a very small positive signal and have reduced our exposure accordingly. The FED is standing still and this morning's sloppy stock trading from Knight Capital resulted in the NYSE unwinding trades in six stocks.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: July 31, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This was the second day of little change in the NDX.  Probabilities are leaning higher and in the absence of news that should be the most probable direction. Money flow has turned positive along with the Euro and our Anticipatory trend remains positive, this should help inch the market further along to the upside. Our long term trend is in danger of moving neutral on Wednesday if the market does not continue to climb. This would be a technical negative going forward. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 30, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal strengthened and we moved fully long. However, I have some reservations. The question is: Was today's pull back enough to ensure another upside day for Tuesday?  Had the market closed somewhat lower, or if it had closed positive after spending the day negative, the answer would have been more clear. The pull back in the Euro adds to the doubt. Supporting the upside our Anticipatory trend turned long and our probabilities are strong. The market may have come too far too fast.  A higher climb from here most likely would be slow and difficult.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 27, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  It is all about the Euro, or more accurately about how much more money the multinationals can make under a weaker dollar. The last two days showed how much interest there is in a weaker dollar. I expect the party will continue going into next week. The Euro chasers are neglecting the more overpowering cause of falling earnings and that is lack of buying due to the deflating economies of most nations.  Enjoy the rally while you can, but remain flexible.  Our Anticipatory trend has remained neutral and though the longer term trend is higher, I would like to see more of our program components kick in as we remain only partially invested.  Overall we had a good week and our starship, the hot money program, is now up 23.9% ytd.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 26, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  The jump in the Euro sent the indices higher on Thursday.  Little has changed from our signal's point of view, but the probabilities show a reduced possibility for a large downward spike, good news for the longs. I expect a small positive carryover into Friday.  Facebook, which lost 8.5% on Thursday lost another 8% in early aftermarket trading on slightly better than estimated revenue and on-target earnings. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 25, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  Earnings landmines. Yesterday it was Apple and Netflix today it is Zynga.  Zynga's miss cost it over 35% in aftermarket trading. The fallout caused an afterhours drop in FaceBook of over 7.5%.  Netflix, who lost 25% on Wednesday stayed steady in the early afterhours.  Our Anticipatory trend moved to neutral and the longer term trend is barely positive.  I believe there should be a bounce on Thursday that lasts all day, still, as you can see from our probabilities there is potential for a sizeable down day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 24, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% money market.  Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With three sizeable down days in a row the market could be primed for a bounce.  Our Anticipatory trend has turned positive along with our longer term trend holding "long".  The signals for our Hot money and Primary program remain neutral and we remain in the money market in those two programs. The European problems have helped the dollar at the expense of Multinational corporate earnings. In earnings the top line reports continue to show weakness and at some point it will translate to the bottom line. The early aftermarket looks very negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 23, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.   All our signals turned neutral for Tuesday and we moved into the money market.  Our longer term trend remains long with our Anticipatory trend neutral.  It won't take much news to drive this market either way and without an edge there is no reason to expose ourselves and our clients.  We are waiting for a more one sided signal. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 20, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  This past week boosted our returns significantly from our most conservative "retirement" program, now up over 5% year to date, to our most aggressive "hot money" program, now up over 20% year to date. (see forecast page).  The trend is up which is positive for the market, the Anticipatory trend is neutral which gives us a condition where our signal is not very strong and can be more easily influenced by the news on a day by day basis.  A good example was the news out of Spain overnight when the bank problem also turned into a regional problem as the cash strapped region of Valencia asked for a handout and massive anti-austerity protests hit 80 cities. This sent foreign markets lower and eventually the US markets followed.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 19, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  From our point of view the mood has shifted from very positive to a more neutral position.  Probabilities are only slightly positive, but the Tech sector may have just a bit more to go and we are positioned partially exposed overall on the upside.  What we have seen from earnings guidance is not encouraging, and I expect more than a few scary earnings reports to come over the next few weeks. Still our trend is up. The Anticipatory trend has moved to neutral and money flow will be negative for a couple of days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 18, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This is our fourth, in a row, long and strong signal. The tech loaded NDX did better than the rest of the indexes as the Intel earnings and guidance was not as bad as anticipated. The effect could carry over into Thursday.  Going into Friday should bring a change in direction or at least our exposure as markets like to find middle ground. For now both the longer term trend and Anticipatory trend remain long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 17, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Once again we are holding on to our "long" position.  With Intel earnings "neutral" and out of the way, the market, especially the NDX, should go higher.  Historical probabilities are an exceptionally high 80% with an average gain of 1%.  Going forward a few days we are looking at a cooling off of the run, but still no strong reversal in view, as both the longer term trend and our Anticipatory trend remain long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 16, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We held our long positions into Tuesday.  Intel will report after the close on Tuesday and that should prove interesting for the NDX.  A VP of Google, Marissa Mayer,  will become the new CEO of Yahoo sending Google shares lower in the aftermarket and raising those of Yahoo. Looks like a bigger loss for Google than a gain for Yahoo as even the talented Mayer may not be enough to cut through the tangles at Yahoo. The big winner will be Mayer who joins the ranks of the most visible CEOs.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 13, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Bank earning or short covering, it did not matter as the markets had an impressive rally on Friday.  Expect a carry over into Monday, but then we need to take another look, as earnings in general should not be very good and that could convince the markets that this was just a short covering affair. A look at the probabilities indicates that any movement on Monday could be small. On the plus side Our Trend stayed positive and our Anticipatory trend turned positive...indicating that the rally could extend a few more days.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 12, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.   We closed out our short positions and moved into the money market for Friday.  The probabilities are leaning higher, but there is the additional risk of greater loss to the down side.  For the week we showed gains in two programs and held flat in the other two.  The S&P now has a string of six down days. Earnings forecasts are being lowered and most of the news is bad. The trend, as we measure it remains positive and so far indicates that we are in a temporary pull back. But that is for now, and tomorrow things could change as the trend is close to going neutral.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 11, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is 100% money market. After an early plunge there was a late afternoon rally that could not hold the S&P above the flat line. Not too much damage as most indexes fell less than a half percent.  I believe there is more down-side to come as our signal turned short. There was nothing encouraging out of the FED and with a third city in California filing for bankruptcy protection in the last 30 days the gloom is spreading.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 10, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is 100% money market.  Our signal turned up, but was erratic near the close.  The anticipatory trend remained neutral. We have gone fully long with our "hot money" program but remain in the money market with the others. With the chip makers calling for lower sales this technology driven market should not go much higher overall, but individual days are different, and we can expect to see moderately sharp jumps and dives.  AMD is looking for an 11% drop in revenue for the second quarter from the first quarter.  AMD closed lower by over 11%. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 9, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.   Small moves are generally positive for the market and Monday's trading was very sleepy.  Still we have little to go on for Tuesday and have moved fully into the money market.  The most interesting part of Monday's trading was the VIX which moved higher by about 5.5%.  From our calculations the long term trend remains "up" and the Anticipatory trend is neutral.  We have a pause in the uptrend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 6, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long:37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. New Retirement program is 100% money market.  We have some unusual circumstances for Monday. The signals for our hot money and primary programs are a mild long, but since the NDX does not generally do well after a small down Friday, we have taken a long position in the S&P rather than the NDX.  A look at today's probability chart on our forecast page shows the potential up side for the S&P and NDX as being similar but the potential down side as being much more negative for the NDX.  Our new Hot Money program is doing very well, now up over 15% for the ytd.  After Friday's action the immediate question is "Is this the start of a downturn or a one or two day correction?"  The longer term trend remains positive with the anticipatory trend neutral. This configuration is expected to continue into the beginning of next week.  Money flow turns and remains positive next week so I believe we are just seeing some topping action, but we will continue to take it one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 5, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.  The NDX squeaked out a small gain as the rest of the markets moved a little lower. We have moved all programs into the money market as the markets seem to be going into a topping phase. This type of action will leave the markets vulnerable to any news items as it does not show a strong predilection. I expect this to continue for a few days with varying tendencies. In the absence of news I expect the movements to be small. We will wait for the probabilities to be more one sided before taking a position. The Libor mess in Europe most likely will get worse.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 3, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market. New Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  After a three day run where the NDX gained 4.3% and the RUT posted a 5.7% gain it looks like it is time for them to level off. Half of our programs remain long and aligned with our long term and anticipatory trends. Even though the VIX is a sluggish 16.65 the probabilities are showing much more risk to the down side in the way of larger potential amplitudes. Two days ago we saw the potential "one day downside" as about 0.4% for the NDX, now it is 2%.... RIMM is starting to look interesting. At some point someone will step up and buy them.  APPL could easily do the job, scooping up patents. Gaining more corporate sales and preventing a company like Google, Amazon or Facebook from entering the pool. Seems like no one seriously looks at  AAPL as a potential buyer, and it was not their style under Jobs, still it makes sense. A second business-focused phone would also help them keep Samsung at bay. Now if Samsung wanted to make an end run around Apple...... Happy 4th. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: July 2, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With both the anticipatory trend and the long term trend "long" our signal remains strong telling us to hold our position into the shortened Tuesday trading day. The market sputtered all day then closed near the highs. There was not much of a pull back on Monday which I consider a good sign for a continuation of the up move. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: June 29, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals turned long. Thursday's Euro-jolt sent stocks soaring on Friday and could carry into early next week.  The traders did not allow much of a pull back during the day so there are more investors looking to get on board. Our signal is strong and downside risk appears to be temporarily reduced.  Past the fourth of July we may have another story. Getting cash into the hands of banks will keep them alive, but as we saw in the US it does not mean it will kick start the economy. I expect to see soft top line numbers coming out of US corporations well into 2013. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: June 28, 2012

Current position for Friday: New Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  We held all positions into Friday. With half the year almost gone we can take a look at how our programs have done. Our new Retirement program is now up +2% for the year, that may seem boring for most but with a market exposure of only 30% that of the NDX the program is ultra conservative, moves slowly, functions independent of market direction, (actually gained 0.2% today) and is an excellent addition to any conservative investing program. Our long- and-money-market-only program is running at a market exposure level of only 50% that of the NDX, spends a good deal of the time in the money-market and has gained +6.4% year to date, outperforming the S&P with much less market exposure. Our primary program is up +8% year to date, with 30% less exposure than the NDX it is designed for all market conditions. Our new Hot money program is up +12.6% ytd with market exposure equal to that of the NDX it is out performing the NDX with much less drawdown and was designed for all market conditions.  For Friday the long term trend remains slightly positive and our anticipatory trend is neutral. We await a stronger signal to invest the bulk of our capital. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: June 27, 2012

Current position for Thursday: New Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  The long term trend is slightly positive and our anticipatory trend is neutral. Although the European markets did very well the US markets could only make partial gains.  I expect the upward energy has dissipated and the markets will show little action for the rest of the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: June 26, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our probabilities for Wednesday are exceptionally strong along with our signal.  Both long term and anticipatory trends are positive.  We have taken our self limited, fully long positions in all our programs. (The % exposure differs as each program has its own exposure limits which enables us to control risk and provide the best program or combination of programs for our client's individual needs.)  Tuesday the markets made up about one third of Monday's decline. As strong as our signal is for Wednesday I am seeing a more neutral period later in the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                  

Comments: June 25, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: New Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  The long term trend remains slightly positive and our anticipatory trend remains neutral.  Monday's drop was more than expected, moving the expected bounce over to Wednesday.  Commodity prices are painting the picture of a world slowdown. Buy and hold with caution.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 23, 2012

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market.  Although our long term trend remains positive our anticipatory trend remains neutral.  Probabilities slightly favor the upside but the amplitudes show greater risk to the down side.  Our signal is neutral and we remained on the sidelines. I do expect our anticipatory trend to turn up early next week and bring the market with it but later in the week we see negative money flow which could cause the markets to roll over. For now we remain in the money market as it does not pay to be exposed without a strong indication of direction. NEW long term forecast was posted last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 21, 2012

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% money market.  Our signal turned flat and we closed out our shorts and moved to the sidelines. If the market manages to hold, with out a significant drop on Friday, it should set itself up for a good rally on Monday. This is the likely scenario, but with our long term trend just barely on the long side, another strong drop would change the dynamics.  My current view is that this is a feint and the markets will hold and recover on Monday.  This point does not change the fact that the economy is in bad trouble with seemingly poor economic leadership and most corporate earnings growth going forward will continue to come from the last drops of cost cutting.   NEW long term forecast was posted last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 20, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. New Retirement program is 100% money market. The three years of Fed action has not turned the economy around.  That's not good and the markets should start to respond to the negative.  The long term trend is still up, anticipatory trend neutral, money flow neutral, but the emotional component from price action is negative.  Probabilities look negative with moderately negative amplitude.  Looking for a small pull back. NEW long term forecast was posted last week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 19, 2012

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market.  A solid up-day for the markets Wednesday, reflecting Goldman Sachs chief economist expectations that the Fed will announce some sort of additional easing on Wednesday.  Whatever the Fed does it will not help.  Congress needs to temporarily raise the base and eliminate the cap for FICA taxes until the economy straightens out. Raising the base would put money into the hands of those who will spend it and it would jump start the economy. Eliminating the CAP would maintain the money flow into government from those who would not spend it at this point in time. Once the economy gets started they could move both back to where they were.  NEW long term forecast was posted this past week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 18, 2012

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market.  Our anticipatory trend turned neutral with both money flow and long term trend positive.  Probabilities look positive but the amplitudes favor the down side, leaving us without a strong edge. We moved to the money market waiting for a stronger signal.  NEW long term forecast was posted this past week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 17, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 86% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The last couple of days the markets have positioned themselves for a positive outcome for the European elections. Our signal moved long in two of our programs with the others in the money market. Our longer term trend resumed its long position along side the anticipatory trend.  This tells us the markets will be more responsive to signals on the long side.  NEW long term forecast was posted this past week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 14, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 20% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The elections in Greece should hold the market's interest. From our technicals we see that the markets look like they are one day away from resuming their longer term uptrend. Our shorter term anticipatory trend is neutral for Friday. Overall we have a slightly negative assessment for Friday's market. NEW long term forecast was posted this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 13, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A downgrade of Spain's credit rating turned a flat US market into a plunge.  Spain has an unemployment rate of 21.6% with Greece not far behind at 17.7%. These rates are double the US rates which are bad. With so many people out of work there is no money flowing to pick up the economy. Thursday's signal is slightly positive with the anticipatory trend positive. NEW long term forecast was posted yesterday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 12, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The longer term trend remains neutral but another strong day could turn it positive. The probabilities are strong for an up-day.  We do have some negative money flow for Thursday, but if we get a positive Wednesday I would expect some carry-over into Thursday. After the wild swing on Monday the markets may be less inclined to jump on news coming out of Europe. NEW long term forecast posted today.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 11, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : All programs 100% money market.  The market could not hold on to early gains, as the realization that a Spanish bank bailout just pushes the problem down the line and does not cure it.  The drop was more than I expected and changes the dynamics for Tuesday. We have moved fully to the sidelines.  Possibly the down move continues into Tuesday morning with a recovery later in the day. So far Wednesday looks positive.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 8, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 62.5% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets climbed today and should continue to go higher on Monday. The longer term trend remains neutral with the shorter term, anticipatory trend, remaining long. This along with what we see as positive money flow on Monday should give the week a good start. Judging from the money flow the market should peak on Monday then flatten, or work its way lower over the remainder of the week.  The last two weeks were good for us as our most conservative program is now up 2% ytd and our "hot money" program is up 9.7% ytd.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 7, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   A look at the S&P probabilities tells the confused story for tomorrow.  It shows a 63% chance of the market moving higher, but dampens that with an outlook for potential amplitude of the change which favors the down side by two to one. The anticipatory trend is long. We also see a positive money flow through Monday. Overall a very mixed condition for Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 6, 2012

Current position for Thursday : All programs 100% money market.  Most of the indices have closed on their high of the day.  The probabilities are flat and leaning slightly to the down side. As we only trade when we have a strong enough signal to keep our risk down we have moved to the money market. I firmed up my work on the long term trend to make it more responsive to "slow bleed" types of markets, like what we saw start in April and May.  Under the update we now have both the long term and anticipatory trends sitting on neutral. We see the market going either way on Thursday, but it does look more negative for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 5, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a full strength signal with excellent probabilities. In the absence of major poor economic news we should go higher on Wednesday. Thursday still looks positive.  Our Anticipatory trend is "long".  Facebook hit another new low, now down 32% in little more than two weeks.  While many original "locked-in" owners will be selling in about eleven weeks there are also many others that have hedged. Still eleven weeks is a short time and may keep a cap on significant upside in the stock price.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 4, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  For the near term I believe we have seen the bottom with Monday's new low. The up-side should carry through Thursday.  Our probabilities look good for Tuesday, but our sample size was small, which is less reliable.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: June 1, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The poor job's report helped boost our return on Friday.  Our signal switched sides for Monday and we have gone long in all accounts. The VIX has now gone above its long term average and if it continues, the added volatility could give the market its first taste of a longer term plunge. There is plenty of good reason for it to happen. The US government policies have focused on helping our multinationals expand overseas at the expense of our local consumer, not thinking about why there is (was) an opportunity for expansion.  Asia depends on Europe and the US to buy their goods.  The crisis in Europe and the lack of pro-consumer policies in the US are slowing Asia's growth.  If we don't buy, they can't buy, and the multinationals'  expansion plans will hit a wall.  It is clearly a lose-lose condition that most likely will end very badly. It is a circle, if one segment can't survive the rest can't survive either, as each group feeds off of each other. With ten year bonds now under 1.5% the long expected boost from boomer's retiring is gone. The market has gone up for three years, and top end growth is not there. Yet corporations can continue to cut labor and restructure to add to the bottom line. Corporations should continue to show good profits even as the total pie shrinks.  The market can go higher, it does not have to collapse, but still the negatives are there, we are not in the 90's anymore.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 31, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Friday is the first day of the month and that is a plus for the markets.  We also have another jobs report that could sway the markets either way. Our signal is negative and we took our position according to it. Long term we are still looking at a strong market which has done a good job of shrugging off a stronger dollar.  Could be frightened money from overseas keeping our market from taking a stronger dip.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 30, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   The dollar continues to climb helping our local economy and population at the expense of the multinationals. More on Facebook... With hundreds of millions of users Facebook is in a good place to replace Groupon for coupons.  By searching through user posts for key works Facebook could match offers to users. At some point as Facebook's price declines they will be undervalued, especially long term as their options for generating cash will expand.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 29, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  What would you do with your billions of dollars?  Facebook has options that should make Apple, Google, and Netflix cringe. Let's say that Facebook enters the smartphone, browser and search fields with an integrated platform centered on Facebook.  Add their smart phone's ability to act as a hub and stream NetFlix-like media to your TV or any TV if you are at a friends house.  They could integrate the pay per click like Google.  They could also go head to head or partner with Amazon.  Facebook  really is in a position to do it all. And is in the best place to capitalize on mobile, the opposite of what you have read about Facebooks current inability to profit from mobile. Don't expect Facebook to stand still. (I don't own any Facebook stock at this time.)   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 28, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  We remained in the money market for Tuesday as our signal remained flat.  Probablilities are mixed to negative.  The Euro continues to apply pressure to the earnings of the multinational corporations. This more than anything has caused the recent decline. Traders are still not frightened as market fluctuations remain small. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 24, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  The late rally brought most of the indexes positive for the day. Friday is not a good day for a long position when there is uncertainty as fear of what might happen over the weekend tends to cause traders to retreat.  During optimistic times the opposite is true.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 23, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long:  37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  The market managed a late recovery.  We have a mixed signal leaning higher, and have taken a small long position in two programs.  HP is letting 27,000 employees go as they, like so many others, increase earnings as sales fall through layoffs and productivity gains.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 22, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 31% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.   New Retirement program is 25% NDX 1x fund.  We have more positives than negatives but not enough to take more than a small position. As the dollar gets stronger the market needs to work its way lower to account for the reduced earnings that the multinational corporations will bring in from over seas sales. A quick look at our T-Index shows it remains firmly in deflationary mode since April of 2008.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 21, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.   New Retirement program is 50% NDX 1x fund.  The old adage regarding IPOs holds true again. If you are a retail investor and can buy an IPO at the issuing price, you don't want it. Facebook was no exception falling over 10%, mispriced then abandoned by Morgan Stanley and team on the first full day of trading.  Lots of loosers including Morgan Stanley on this one.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 20, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 18% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is in the money maket   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is in the money market.  What does it mean for the  NDX to be down 9 days in a row?  We have seen this event only 4 times over the past 20 years, so it is very rare. It generally means there are problems in the markets that are significant and reduced exposure is warranted.  But there are some other things with this decline that are important. The NDX has dropped 6.25% over the 9 days.  If you look for how many 6.25% or larger drops over a nine day period we find that there were not 4 but 361 cases. This is very common as it happens 7.5% of the time. So we have a case of the slow bleeding market.  I spent the weekend working on my long term trend and found that it is very solid as is.  I may however utilize some adjustments to include neutral periods, which gives a better picture of long term behavior.  With this in mind we could say the long-term trend slipped to neutral around mid April. Our anticipatory trend remains in neutral. The bottom signal gave its third call Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 17, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is in the money maket   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is in the money market.  So Facebook will enter the storm.  Looks like any selling off of positions to purchase Facebook already took place. Today was the third day of our Bottom indicator.  I have seen two strings of four and six strings of three over the past twenty years so it is very likely to see a bounce Friday or Monday. Most often the bottom comes on the day after the first indication.  The dollar continued to climb higher and was joined by gold. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 16, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Sorry we missed uploading yesterdays post, it is below. On Tuesday's close we had a "bottom" signal. This usually means a short term bottom will be reached sometime during the next day so we may have seen the low during Wednesday.  We have another strong "Long" signal for Thursday and it is broadbased.  So far we have taken it on the chin for three days this week as the markets bled lower.  Currently the concern is Greece, but a respected client of mine mentioned to me that if the PIGS continue on their destructive path it may be Germany who pulls out of the Euro.... having alternative ways to look at things can help you avoid being broadsided.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 15, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Although our signal continues long and strong, some of the strength has decreased and we have reduced our exposure in two programs. Our Anticipatory trend remains long although the market has been slowly bleeding over the past few weeks as Europe dominates the news.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 14, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have another strong "Long" signal for Tuesday.  Our signal remained long and strong and we see a broadening of support across our signal components. What is missing is the "news" component which has suppressed the markets over the past eight trading days. The Vix is moving in our favor as a higher number makes the markets easier to read. What I am reading is traders are standing ready to jump in, looking for an excuse to hop back on board.  Large cap gold stocks are now down about 38% from their highs while the smaller cap gold stocks have seen their value drop by over 50%. Gold itself is about 18% off its highs.  With Europe's problems, China risky because of unknowns, and gold retreating, the US looks like the worlds safest trade. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 11, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a strong "buy" signal for Monday.  After managing a small gain this past Monday we spend the rest of the week in the money market waiting for a stronger signal. The markets spent the week in a very slow easy downtrend, not giving up very much. Our Anticipatory trend turned "long" and with a long term positive trend the market is in a good position to go higher. Our money flow analysis also looks positive for the coming week.  Overall there is always the worry of another shoe drop by Europe or J P Morgan. But from a statistical point of view the market looks good.  We focus on risk avoidance by reducing our market exposure when we do not have a strong enough signal to overcome potential, minor, adverse news items. Last week was a good example.  Although investors can't control the individual daily changes they can control their overall market exposure over time.  Those that chose to do so fare better than those that ignore it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 10, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  More of the same as far as the NDX goes as that index closed slightly lower.  J P Morgan announced a 2 billion dollar loss in trading. That should keep the lid on any attempts to move the markets higher on Friday. Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral as it has been most of this week.  Money flow should improve next week and that could bring some more "long" trades into focus.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 9, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Another drop and recovery on Wednesday.  We remain in the money market with a slightly negative signal, countered by a positive long term trend.  A major component of daily market direction is the news, which we can not forecast, so it is best to avoid being in the market on days that we do not have a strong enough indication of market direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 8, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The markets plunged then had a strong recovery. That recovery reduced an oversold condition leaving the market in a more balanced mode.  Unfortunately a balanced mode leaves less to work with in determining direction. Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral and long term trend remains long. The probabilities look balanced but it appears that downside moves would be larger than upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 7, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our signal turned negative with the Anticipatory trend Neutral and the long term trend remaining Positive. Monday was able to remain positive from a very poor start in Sunday's futures market. The positive long term trend should help keep any drop reasonable. Both the probabilities and the magnitues favor the down side and our negative signal strength is suggesting a down day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 5, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 62.5% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our call as to the potential risk of a large decline for Friday came true on the news of lower than expected employment figures.  The market for Monday generally follows Friday's lead and we would normally expect more downside.  This Monday could be different for a number of reasons.  First our anticipatory trend turned "long", along with our signal moving all our programs to the long side. In addition Apple won a sanction against Samsung which was one of the unknowns keeping a lid on the Apple stock. If this news is deemed important enough by traders it could send AAPL higher which as almost 20% of the NDX, would give the NDX a boost. If it is enough of a boost to keep the NDX positive the other indexes might just follow.  Check the futures on Sunday to see if it will have any effect.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 3, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  All programs remain in the money market.  Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral.  Most eyes are looking for Friday's employment figures. Our probabilities show the markets leaning higher but risk of a large decline in the NDX if downside does occur.  Most often stocks have strong ties between their price and their potential earnings.  Art and wine have no such connection and rely on hype/status. The one hundred twenty million dollar "scream" is a good example.  Its main use is for intimidation purposes, no comparison with a "chump change" Land Rover or a penthouse overlooking Central Park in Manhattan.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 2, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  All programs were moved to the money market.  Our Anticipatory trend turned neutral.  The positive news of Tuesday was replaced with negative news on Wednesday. There was very little market movement.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: May 1, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Tuesday's NDX closed mostly unchanged the hard way, traveling through a 1.5% range (mostly on the upside).  The ISM numbers were a positive surprise early in the day and sent oil prices, the dollar and the markets higher.  Most overseas markets were closed for May Day.  Our Anticipatory trend turned "long". and although the Tuesday afternoon pull back looked bad, I see it as a digestion of the gains and a good sign for Wednesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 30, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  All programs were moved to the money market as our signals turned flat.  The anticipatory trend slipped back to "neutral", but the longer term trend remains firmly "long".  This appears to be just a pause in the uptrend. The  S&P, RUT  and NDX lost a small amount in April as the Dow held flat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 27, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The Anticipatory trend turned "long". Our overall signal is rather mild, but with strong upside probabilities. I expect the first week in May to be positive, but from our calculations there is some slowing on the cash flow side later in the month that could bring the overall month down.  A quick look at our T-Index, which measures inflationary and deflationary pressure, shows the index at -390 not much change from the -400 to -450 level of the past year.  Clearly the Fed has deflationary policies firmly in place.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 26, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our signal turned negative with the Anticipatory trend Neutral and the long term trend remaining Positive. Two days after Apple blew away earnings forecasts Amazon does the same, sending the stock up 14% in the early aftermarket. AMZN carries almost a 3% weight in the NDX so Amazon's jump adds about 4 tenths to that index. The rest of the market, however, has moved lower in early trading despite Amazon's influence as Spain's credit rating was cut for a second time this year by S&P.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 25, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Overshadowed by Apple's great earnings jump was a report that US Durable goods dropped 4.2% for March.  The report would have normally sent the markets lower but with Apple's large influence on the  NDX and S&P it was hardly noticed.  Now, with the fun over, the markets need to see what is important.  We are long in two programs as our Anticipatory trend turned long. The long term trend remained solidly on the upside and that should continue to provide some additional push for awhile.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 24, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   One rotten apple drove down the NDX as the other indexes held on to gains.  Then Apple had great earnings driving the NDX futures up over 1% in the aftermarket. Apple is too great a percentage of the NDX index.  News plays a large role in the daily market changes, but it is thankfully not the only influence.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 23, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The Anticipatory trend turned "long". Our overall signal is rather mild with good probabilities but potential for 1% or greater downside remains strong.  We have moved long in all accounts but remain less than fully invested.  The NDX now shows four down days in a row a positive sign when it is early in the week. The Dutch government uncertainty tipped the scale to the down side on Monday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 20, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  Our Anticipatory trend remains neutral and our signal turned mildly positive.  Monday however tends to follow Friday's lead and can provide a negative influence. We still do not see strong top line growth in corporate revenue. Without that element the three plus year rally will have to come back to the long term realities of high unemployment and government deficits.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 19, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Our signal became mixed and we closed out a good week.  Anticipatory trend remains neutral.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: April 18, 2012

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 12% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Looks like some more topping action.  Our Anticipatory trend is neutral with the long term still positive. Our signal has, however, turned negative.  The NDX could not hold its early gains and closed slightly lower for the day. Earnings continue to come in with poor future guidance QCOM was lower in the aftermarket.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 17, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The Anticipatory trend remains long but our signal has lost strength and we reduced our exposure. Apple managed to jump over 5% after taking five days of lumps. Will the rally continue or fail?  The NDX has moved more than 1% (either direction), in five of the last six days, providing a big help to us in reading direction, but Wednesday's signal is soft. Most earnings reports show good growth in earnings and flat or declining revenue.  At some point the market will insist on improved revenue to continue higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 16, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal is very strong. Anticipatory trend remains long and we are long in all our programs. Now that the dividend news is out for Apple investors are taking some money off the table sending ripples through the tech sector.  Apple earnings are expected next week on Tuesday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 15, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The increased volatility helped us read the market and we had a good week.  Our Anticipatory trend is long but most other components are mixed resulting in half our programs being long and the rest in the money market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 12, 2012

Current position for Friday :1)  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market. As the Anticipatory trend turned neutral our signal lost strength.  We reduced our exposure. Apple stopped helping the NDX and that index trailed the others.  I still do not see any sense of a strong decline especially with regards to the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 11, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Like yesterday our signal is strong. The upward thrust early on Wednesday waned leaving only a 1/2% gain in the NDX.  The good side of this is that there should be more room to advance.  Our Anticipatory trend remains UP and our long term trend is intact.  Apple received some bad news from the Department of Justice and that dampened the entire tech segment. The market has completed its third year since the start of the rebound and seems to have overshot reality with regard to a world recovery which is still struggling.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 10, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our "long" signal for Wednesday is very strong providing a high probability for some upside.  Alcoa's earnings and revenue beat the street estimates and should help our position.  Our Anticipatory trend moved to the long side but  we do see a decline in the strength of the long term trend. That trend is till intact (with regard to the NDX) and with Apple pulling it higher, should continue for a while. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 9, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The employment figures sent the markets lower on Monday, but they closed well off their lows.  Our signal turned flat and our Anticipatory trend moved to neutral. Still no sign of a severe sell off from our NDX perspective, as that index is within 2% of its recent highs.  Our probabilities are a bit negative so more downside may come tomorrow. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 5, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our Anticipatory trend remains long. The NDX had a small gain for the week and I do not see the market crumbling at this point. Although housing isn't going anywhere, the conversion of foreclosures into rentals should generate jobs and add to profits at the hardware chains. Markets are closed Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 4, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We now are starting to see some volatility move into the markets.  Our signal strengthened, and all programs have gone long.  Our Anticipatory trend is "long" which indicates that the market is not quite ready to quit. Hopefully we will get some more volatility without the madness.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 3, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a slightly positive signal and half our programs are now long with the other half in the money market. The Anticipatory trend turned "Long".  Probabilities are very mixed and the market is exhibiting a topping attitude. The RUT has exhibited this activity since early February. The NYA since late February, the SPX since mid-March and the NDX only about a week.  What we see is that it is spreading to all the indexes. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: April 2, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market. Our signal turned slightly positive, Anticipatory trend remains neutral. Today's driving force was positive economic news from China which moved the European shares higher. The US economic news was split between slightly positive manufacturing  and negative construction news.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 31, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The basic Anticipatory trend remains neutral and overall little has changed from going in to Friday. Our money flow indicators are mixed and the pre-markets are higher as of the writing.  The longer term anticipatory trend remains positive and I do not expect to see any significant down side until we see some weakening in the longer term anticipatory trend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 29, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The Anticipatory trend remains neutral and our signal turned flat as we moved all programs into the money market. Though it may have seemed like a pull back if you look at the news, the market is still up for the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 28, 2012

Current position for Thursday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market. Our signal remains slightly positive and the Anticipatory trend moved to Neutral.  The markets recovered most of their early loss and appear to be headed back into their climb, however our money flow indicator is neutral. We are long in halve our programs. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 27, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a slightly positve signal and half our programs are now long with the other half in the money market. The Anticipatory trend remained long, a positive sign. It is also mid week, another plus. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 26, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 62% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 42% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our Anticipatory trend has turned long.  A very strong up day for the markets on much less than stellar news, but it is how you view it, and today we have on rose colored glasses.  By keeping interest rates low our multinationals are guaranteed cheap money and a weak dollar to support their efforts to get their products and offices into as many countries as possible. The problems in Europe are seen as a plus for the US companies. The weak real estate and high unemployment locally means potentially low cost expansion in the US and cheap labor.  Life is wonderful for the exchange listed companies. Is there a better reason for the markets to go higher?  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 23, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The market move this past month was strong and well behaved, the small pullback, slow and easy. This recent market has been very kind to traditional investors and is generally not seen under a neutral anticipatory trend. Consider it a bonus.  The market cycles through behavior changes but generally reverts back to normal patterns that have held over many years unless fundamental changes in the economy alter the patterns. Unfortunately major economic changes over the past twenty years, like the outsourcing of jobs and the more recent dampers on lending have produced negative patterns that do not look like they are about to change near term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 22, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   With our Anticipatory trend continuing to call a neutral market and our signal flat we remain on the sidelines. The slow down in China is not nearly as dangerous to the stock market as the lack of growth in the US. The market has overshot earnings growth and is flattening out.  10 year interest rates have come down the past few days indicating money going back into bonds.  Dull market activity.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 21, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   Wednesday closed mostly flat. Our signal and the Anticipatory trend is neutral.  Overall the market looks weak, but Apple could hold up the NDX. Not much to go on for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 20, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   Ten years ago we posted our t-index software to the internet.  The T-Index measures the relationship between the short and long term interest rates and does an excellent job of determining where we are in the inflationary / deflationary cycle. Normal values are between 0 and +100. Currently we are in a strong deflationary mode, with the index near the -400 level, about where it was last year at this time and  similar to conditions we saw in the 1930's. In the 30's there was no worry of external inflation such as rising prices for oil or commodities but in 2012 there is concern. The problem is external inflation can't be controlled.  Raising interest rates in the US has no effect on external inflation since it is caused by international conditions not national conditions.  Workers don't demand raises when they don't have jobs. And raising interest rates will not keep China and India from buying oil or steel.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                

Comments: March 19, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   Could be we are in a one company economy. Spell it aapl.  It is even more extreme than the 1950's when general motors ruled. How quickly everyone forgot that Apple stock fell -60% from the end of December 2007 to mid January 2009, and it wasn't the first time the company stock had lost 50% or more....   Very interesting article in the Financial Times this morning. The quarter over quarter gains for the S&P 500 (since 2009) have been diminishing at a  very steady rate through last quarter. This quarter, first quarter of 2012, it looks like the S&P could show a year over year negative -.5%. Markets generally anticipate and adjust in advance, this time they have ignored the pending news as they focused on Europe (and I believe lulled by the Apple magic) even as profit warnings outpaced positive guidance by three to one. Our Anticipatory Trend remains neutral and overall signal strength is slightly negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 18, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   Our Anticipatory Trend is neutral. Overall signal strength is slightly negative but not enough to trade. Pre markets have turned higher continuing the upward trend. Looking back over about 30 years with the S&P we find that when the markets have gained 14% or more over the prior quarter they generally start to retract. The current gain is in the 16% range. "Long term" anticipatory trend remains positive so no sign of a major pull back. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 15, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.   Our Anticipatory Trend remains neutral and money flow is positive but our signal is too weak to call. Good article by CNBC senior writer Jeff Cox on who is doing the buying in this market.  He points out the net withdrawals to stock based mutual funds since the start of February and the 3 to 1 negative earnings pre announcements to positive pre announcements for corporations; yet the market continues to climb. He says corporate insiders have sold 13 times as much as they bought in February which is more than 50% above normal.  I belienve that a good portion of the money leaving individual stocks is going into ETFs but it does seem to be strange behavior. From our view point we see a positive long term trend and buying during both the positive and neutral swings. Generally there is some light selling during the neutral portions. But the behavior is not unheard of and will wear itself out and return to a more normal state at some point. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 14, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/moneymarket program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Moneymarket.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Another up day and now our signals turned flat and we moved to the money market.  Our Anticipatory Trend remains neutral with other factors leaning slightly to the down side.  More anti Goldman sentiment in the news papers. Gold is falling as indications of another QE become less certain.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 13, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :1)  Primary program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% money market.  For the S&P we had the strongest day this year. The VIX fell some more dropping about 1 point per day for the last five days. This would normally be a bad sign, but since the Vix is already very low it does not have much impact on the market direction.  Our Anticipatory trend slipped back to neutral, but is being compensated for by decent price action indicating that the market can claw out some additional gains.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 12, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :1)  Primary program is  100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market gave us the cap on gains we were looking for with the NDX closing exactly flat. I do not see too much more for Tuesday. The trend and money flow are now in sync but other broader indicators have moved out of sync leaving us with a very small positive.  I moved two of our programs to the money market.  The Vix is now below 16 and falling into the bottom third of Vix levels looking back about 20 years. In this area the daily moves were smaller and the % chance for the market to go higher was less than for higher values of Vix.  Although the Vix spent about 1/3 of its time under 16.2 it only accounted for 1/6 of the total market gains over the past ~20 years. So in effect the low Vix market moves were only 50% of what we would expect under a uniform return.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 9, 2012

Current position for Monday :1)  Primary program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Another slow but positive day for the markets gave the NDX a gain for the week.  Monday's signal is positive and the Anticipatory trend again turned positive, but our money flow indicators are out of sync with the other signals which usually means a cap on any gains.  The signal itself is not very strong so we are only partially invested overall.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 8, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  After two days of up-signal and up-market we moved back to the sidelines.  Our Anticipatory Trend also moved to neutral.  The long term trend is still higher so any pull back would most likely be a small one. Greece is once again in the rear view mirror and will not have to be dealt with for a number of months.  The recent run up in US stocks, however leaves the indexes more vulnerable to any, of many, possible scares that might send it back down. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: March 7, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Apple released information on the new IPad3 and the stock responded with a drop and recovery closing the day slightly higher. Overall we continue to have a positive signal that has spread to all our programs, but has not gained in strength.  Like yesterday the signal is "long", but not strong. The Anticipatory Trend returned to "long" indicating to me that more upside is in store for the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: March 6, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is Long: 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  More talk of a Greek default tilted the markets to the down side.  The market is now behaving in a more normal manner with the Vix back over 20.  Probabilities are leaning higher for Wednesday but without strong conviction. The NDX should hold up with the Apple new product release pending.  Keep your eye on the "Drone" "quad rotor" market, some interesting things are happening there. Youtube has some posts.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: March 5, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Going into Tuesday there is little change in our signal and probabilities. The trend remains neutral. Overall we have a slightly negative projection. The deflationary environment of the last few years has caused irreversible changes in the economy. We can see it in the number and makeup of shops in our cities.  Bookstores...gone. Consumer electronics stores...gone. Also gone are the thousands of stores and companies that we never see, as profits vanished, competition squeezed out the "value added" companies and left everything a commodity. This quiet demolition blew a hole in the middle class that can not be repaired as these physical changes made to the economy went far beyond the normal recession patterns.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: March 4, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  We moved back into the money market as our signals turned flat and the anticipatory trend went to neutral.  This is a strong market with many attempts to move higher and then consolidate.  The RUT does look tired and seems to be the only hold out, having topped over three weeks ago and is in a gradual decline. As I have said before the normal tendency is for the market to move slightly lower during a neutral trend, but this particular market is stronger than normal.  As always we adjust our position day by day as no-load mutual funds have no slippage or commissions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: March 1, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is long 26% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All programs have gone long and our anticipatory trend has also moved from neutral to long. I don't expect any change in the volatility. Soon global longer term influences should tone down this runaway market. Expect more Euro component nations to have problems which will hurt the Euro and slow the European block into more sluggish if not negative growth. The US economy can not really grow without a healthy real estate market or hot sector, and Asia depends on the US and Europe to keep the plants rolling. US elections should not have an impact this time around. Yet our positive trend could keep the markets going higher for awhile.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 29, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Low short term interest rates are both the symptom and a popular memedy to a bad economy.  T-bill rates are lower now than when the market bottomed in March of 2009, so it is clear that the economy has not gotten better. If the Fed thought the economy was getting better the rates would be higher.  Low rates mean companies and home buyers can get cheap money, but home buyers are more influenced by the direction of home prices than by the level of interest rates and right now home prices are going lower. Corporations can borrow, but few are expanding so they don't need to. The main property of low interest rates is that they are low and return little, so investors have less income and less money to spend to stimulate the economy. Low interest rates are a popular remedy, not a perfect solution.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 28, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The NDX seems to be running on Apple fuel,  traveling between one Apple announcement and the next. If there is another Apple out there to keep it company I don't see it.  Money Apple gets takes away from the rest of the economy and a big chunk moves out of circulation into their $100 billion stockpile. So when is the party over? Today was the first +1% move in the NDX since the beginning of the month and one day won't mark the rally's end. But elsewhere the Rut has not made a new high in over two weeks and the Dow is still toying with the 13,000 mark. A lot of churning and repositioning as this rally ages. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 27, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  I am starting to see some more negatives in the market, but still not enough to trigger a short.  Monday's market could not hold the early drop and recovered. Tuesday tends to reverse Monday's direction so a small pull back could be in order. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 26, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  The average Vix level over the past 20 years is approximately 21.5, about 25% higher than it is today.  Low Vix means a more complacent market so watch the size of the daily changes for a warning that things are about to change. Slower  moving markets require more discipline to wait for entry points.  The overall trend is neutral and historically not the best market to hold a long position, but recent activity has been very positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 23, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Take another look at Sears. On Dec 27 I said I thought the drop was over done and to not count them out , Sears closed that day at 33.38 and continued lower for the next seven days. Today Sears closed at 61.8 up and up over 18% today alone.  So now I am taking the opposite side, this is most likely too much. For the record I don't own Sears shares, but I recognize that they have potential for substantial improvement if they don't alienate their client base.  Our Email is still down please call if you need anything.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 22, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  A look at the probabilities show a lean to the long side but the amplitudes are favoring the down side. This is saying any upside should be small. Our Email went down today hopefully we will have it up sometime on Thursday.  Everything else is functioning fine. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 21, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is long 35% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All programs are now long varying amounts of the Rydex Nasdaq 100 funds and aligned with the overall anticipatory trend.  Greece is now behind us, but strong growth is not in the picture. Dell missed earnings estimates and shares fell about 4.5% in the aftermarket.  Dell is not an Apple.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 19, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Our long term trend is up and now our overall anticipatory trend is also up. Two of our programs have turned long.  The Euro is having a significant impact on our stock market, with our multinational corporations looking to a strong Euro to bring in positive returns from overseas.  Recent higher gasoline prices in the US will impact retailers going forward. The market is closed Monday for President's day.  Next holiday is Good Friday on April 6. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 16, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Strong up day for the markets after an early pull back. Though improvements in a business index is always good news going from 7.3 to 10.2, when 50 is break even is not something to get excited about. Something to think about February 16, 2000 the S&P was at 1387.59, 2% higher than it is today and the NDX was at 3996.26 a full 54% higher than it is today. Now ask yourself, are the US and world economies in a better place now, or were they in a better place then. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: February 15, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Apple is such a large part of the NDX that its movements are distorting the index. This morning it was up over 3% pushing the NDX higher while the Dow was down.  More talk on easing.  Here is the best way to look at it.  When you own a store and even though you are open, people are lined up outside waiting to get in to buy, you probably could use a larger store, more inventory and more sales people. At that time it would benefit you to have low interest rates to help you expand. Those people are lined up or at least waiting for another store to open in developing countries and the multinationals are being helped to expand overseas. In the US  businesses are not overflowing with buyers and low interest rates are the wrong stimulus. Without buyers with cash there can be no expansion and hiring. First money must get into the pockets of the potential buyers. Now low interest rates can stimulate buying of homes, but there you need banks willing to lend. First the banks lent to those who could not pay back causing the problem, now they have tightened the rules to a point that they shut out people who can pay causing an extension of the problem.  As for the market it is still in a bull mode with short term negatives, but as disciplined traders we are waiting for high probability conditions to take a position.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: February 14, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  We finally got a signal.....but it came on the close and too late to trade. These "paint the tape" signals are often less accurate so not being able to trade them is not a problem. Our probabilities are leaning lower and I do expect a lower day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.               

Comments: February 13, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is : 100% Money market.  Today's trading showed more strength, but still not quite enough to send us to the table. Over the past 20 years we have seen a number of upward creeping markets, but the normal direction under these similar conditions, is one of slipping lower making buying into this rally a more high risk endeavor.  A few burned banks in Athens is just the beginning of social unrest that will emerge from Greece.  Being tied to the Euro has imposed an unbalanced condition on the country, preventing Greece from a currency devaluation, which is what should happen to bring things back into alignment. Greece now has a Band-Aid but no cure.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 10, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  Our programs spent the week in the money market as the S&P lost some and the NDX gained some. Emotions remain muted resulting in overall small daily changes. The overall anticipatory trend is neutral so we expect the lack of commitment to continue.  Our t-index remains face down in strongly negative territory, signaling deflation and has spent the last few years in that condition.  Probabilities for Monday improved but still are slightly to the negative side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 9, 2012

Current position for Friday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  The Greek issue is now a non issue and the markets are rising on thoughts of a magical recovery. Our long term trend is up and short term neutral this condition normally produces a condition where the markets tend to slowly drift lower rather than higher over the long term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 8, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  Market action at today's close moved our signal from money market to "short", but too late to make the transaction.  I expect to see a bit more on the down side for Thursday, but with the current level of small moves I am not expecting very much.  Caesar's formerly know as Harrah's Entertainment has a debt load of about $20 billion and went public with a tiny $16 million offering. Easily small enough to manipulate if they wanted to. Maybe it was part of their advertising budget, as the stock jumped 70% in the true tradition of gambling.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 7, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  The market continues to creep higher with no great commitment.  On the positive side, markets move best when both interest rates and stock prices are flat or have only small changes as large changes brings fear into the market and investors start to sell their stock. We have very small changes and that is good. Our long term anticipatory trend is also positive giving more helping the long argument.  On the flat side is our signal strength, which considers many factors and without a strong signal we expect the market to march mainly in place.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 6, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  More of the same is expected for Tuesday, but with a little more enthusiasm. Apparently Europe is no longer having any real influence on the markets, a far cry from the market last August when every turn seemed to hinge on Europe.  For now investor focus seems to be on Facebook so put on a happy face. Trend remains positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: February 3, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is: 100% Money market.  Time for a pause, as the very short term influence is now down, with the main, anticipatory trend, up.  Signal is flat and we moved to the money market in all accounts. There of course could be some upside carryover on Monday since for the last 20 years a gain on Friday was followed by a gain on Monday about 59% of the time. Tuesday however, reverses a Monday gain about 52% of the time.  The Unemployment rate showed progress but a much better number to watch is the U6 unemployment rate that includes discouraged workers no longer on unemployment plus under employed workers. That rate is 15.1% and coming down. When the self employed close shop they can't collect unemployment and that considerable number just falls off the chart so the real unemployed is much greater than the various government figures show.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: February 2, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex ndx 2x Fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 1x fund.  Our probabilities have grown more positive even though the rally is getting rather old. Our Anticipatory trends, both long-term and short-term, remain positive. Still the creeping nature of the price movements are keeping a damper on our signal strength.  Economy still looks terrible by most standards but the market keeps rolling on. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: February1, 2012

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is  Long: 20% Rydex S&P 2x fund and 6% Rydex NDX 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 47% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex S&P 1x fund.  Small breakout to the upside. I expect there is more to come as the trend is positive. We increased our long position in two of our programs.  Still, I do not see much in the way of signal strength or price movement so I expect more small steps higher near term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 31, 2012

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is  Long: 20% Rydex S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex S&P 2x Fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 39% Rydex S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex S&P 1x fund.  The markets are holding within a very tight trading range and accordingly we have been mostly sitting in the money market.  Our anticipatory trend, however, is looking for a breakout to the upside. Our T-index remains pinned beneath the -400 mark as it has for the last few years that we have been in a deflationary mode. With the Fed holding rates low the index should remain pinned for a few more years coming.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 30, 2012

Current position for Tuesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 100% Money market.  Is Portugal the new Greece?  With their government bonds already categorized as junk by S&P the 10 year bond yield jumped another 1.5% today closing at 15.2%. The US markets recovered significantly from their early loss on Monday. The trend is still up but expect some stuttering.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 29, 2012

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 61% Rydex S&P 2x Fund.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Long: 36% Rydex S&P 1x fund. Our anticipatory trend has turned long in alignment with a longer term positive market. With things starting to look better in Europe the overnight market is looking sickly while the  Facebook IPO could provide a boost to the markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 26, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our anticipatory trend remains neutral in a longer term positive market.  Short term signals have been slightly negative. The market has not done much over the past five days. Europe has not changed, interest rates remain low and now Mr Gingrich seems to be ahead in the polls. This might act as a cap to the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 25, 2012

Current position for Thursday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 100% Money market.  The Fed is giving us a couple of years of ultra low interest rates to stay out of the way of any glimmer of growth that might take place.  The market is behaving very well but not providing us with any strong signals. Generally with a lack of signals you would expect a downward rather than upward drift. So I don't believe it would be good advice to be buying.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 24, 2012

Current position for Wednesday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 100% Money market.  Apple's after the bell results were outstanding.  But what is it saying? How does it translate into the broader world. Unfortunately I don't believe it does translate into the broad economic picture. I believe it is an anomaly. Certainly with Apple having only about 5% of the labor force necessary to produce and sell their products located in the US, it does very little for the local economy except take dollars that could have been better moved into a broader circulation and put those dollars in Apple's pocket.  With such a small local labor force Apple is a damper on the local economy.  It is a boost for the world economy, but that too does not translate very well into any economic trend as it is Apple's game alone. You can however expect some investors to chase tech stocks tomorrow.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 23, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 50% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our anticipatory trend is still neutral within an overall positive longer term framework. Our daily programs are more negative.  The Vix is running below 20 indicating a more carefree attitude on the part of investors.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 22, 2012

Current position for Monday :(1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 100% Money market.  The recent Republican primary action could throw a curve at the market as the market wants a stable pro-business platform.  Both Obama and Romney would serve that interest very well, but Gingrich presents a less stable posture that could cause some concern.  Big news on our end is the flushing out of the anticipatory trend over the weekend. See the Forecast page for details. More is to come.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.           

Comments: January 19, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  Good payroll numbers and bad housing numbers. New building permits were also down.  Building permits are very telling regarding a recovery if they are not even thinking about building then they are laying off, not hiring.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: January 18, 2012

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  The IMF announced it is looking for financial support for Europe adding some fuel to the rally.  The NDX looks over-extended at this time, and will most likely lead any decline lower.  The markets however seem determined to ignore bad news. There is always temporary bad news and then there is the more permanent bad news like what sent Japan's market into a decade+ decline.  When that happened most other countries were still in a growth surge.  Now fewer countries are growing and some are dragging the others down. There is no quick fixes, only small rallies of hope and market response. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: January 17, 2012

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  No change in our forecasts for this very dull market.  Last four trading days shows little more than 1/10% gain in the S&P.  One good thing about the presidential race in America is it will not cause any market reactions as no one running will do anything to disrupt the easy money program to support the multinationals, and perhaps that is what has been behind the recent run up in stocks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: January 16, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  Our anticipatory trend remains short.  S&P downgraded a group of European countries after the bell Friday, but the news had already been leaked and the markets moved higher. The US futures moved higher Monday evening pushing for a higher opening on Tuesday. The market is gaining with out fuel, kind of interesting to watch.  Earnings should be lower on US and European austerity, China's slowdown, and a stronger dollar.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.                 

Comments: January 12, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is  Short: 75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  The US is just one of many countries trying to devalue their currency to gain a foothold in the world market. The recent gains in the dollar over the Euro did not help the US multinationals and should result in reduced earnings the following quarter. Earnings earned overseas in local currencies must be translated back into US dollars when evaluating that company, so a high dollar means less bottom line. It also hurts by raising the cost of exports. So I expect to see top line shrinkage.  A strong dollar is however good for US citizens as it keeps the "external" inflation down. Limiting the climb in gas prices, heating oil, lumber, food and other commodities.... Costco has an Interesting approach to customer service. I purchased a car battery from Costco about two years ago. The battery was having problems recently and I brought it back in for a new one.  The battery had a three year replacement guarantee. Costco gave me cash for the old battery that was their higher, current price, plus tax. So I was paid more for my two year old battery than I originally paid for it. Now Costco not only has a customer for life, but one that blogs about it.  Good customer service in the internet age is very valuable. Dell, on the other hand, abandoned their "5" Streak" smart phone soon after they brought it to market.  I won't buy another product from them.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: January 11, 2012

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  Our anticipatory trend remains pointed "down".  We remain mostly in the money market. Small market moves are however supportive of stealth rallies. We wait. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: January 10, 2012

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  Tuesday's market took off following the strong overnight move in the European markets.  US markets gained much less but still closed with strong gains.  Europe's austerity will mean more layoffs and reduced hours worked, which in turn will hurt the economy. The world was addicted to easy credit and without it deflation sets in.  Do not expect easy sailing.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: January 9, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  75% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  Our slightly negative signal turned a good deal more negative for Tuesday. Our anticipatory trend remains negative and aligned with our programs. Aloca reported its expected loss but its revenues improved. I believe investors will wait for a broad picture of earnings to emerge before sending the market screaming in one direction or another.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: Jan 6, 2012 

Current position for Monday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.   New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  No change in our positions and no change in the anticipatory trend, which remains down.  The VIX is at its average level over the past 19 years so we have a very untelling market, with participants not willing to venture very far in either direction. Employment changes are still too small to be encouraging, yet not bad enough to be frightening. Wild cards that could cause more down side than relief would be Europe, Iran and North Korea.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: Jan 5, 2012

Current position for Friday : (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market.    (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is 100% Money market.   New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  The anticipatory trend remains down and it looks like the market will go lower for Friday. Most programs are in the money market with only the Retirement program partially short.  Quiet news week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: Jan 4, 2012

Current position for Thursday : (1)  Primary program is Long: 28%Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Long: 94% Rydex NDX 2x Fund.  New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund.  The anticipatory trend remains down. Our program directions are mixed going into Thursday.  No exceptional news to drive the market's direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: Jan 3, 2012

Current position for Wednesday : (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is is 100% Money market.   New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund. Explosive early move held on to most of the gains by the close. No good reason for the jump other than the European markets had made strong gains overnight and the prior day. Odds favor a pull back as updays following a holiday are usually followed by a down day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

Comments: Jan 1, 2012

Current position for Tuesday : (1)  Primary program is Short:  52% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   NEW Hot Money program is Short: 76% Rydex Inverse S&P 2x fund. New Retirement program is Short: 34% Rydex Inverse S&P 1x fund. December We have not finished updating our site for the new additions but you will see the first post of our "anticipatory" Trend direction on our home page. Over the long weekend the German DAX moved sharply higher (Monday) under light volume but could influence our markets. Most other news was not encouraging. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.            

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2011 

For earlier comments made in 1st half of 2011 

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2010