Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments: June 30, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex InverseNDX 1x fund.  Our negative readings are now moderately strong and we have taken a fully short position.  Today marked the end of QE2. Is the market expecting a pre 4th of July  announcement of QE3?  The run-up would make one think so, but I don't expect it.  The Qe's have: 1. Devalued the dollar relative to other currencies.  2.Caused major inflation in terms of commodities.  3. Boosted the stock market re-inflating some 401ks.  4.Allowed major corporations to borrow at very low rates and invest that money into overseas expansion.  5. Boosted some exports.                                     The QEs did not. 1. Stop the decline in housing prices.  2. Help the housing problem in any other way. 3. Increase jobs substantially. 4. Stop the steady inflation adjusted decline in wages below the top tier.    We don't need any more QEs but we can use some bottom up stimulus.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 29, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We are reading another shift in sentiment and our programs are beginning to lean to the short side.  I expect small moves Thursday and Friday with reduced volume as many leave for the holiday and vacations. Our money flow component has turned flat with our emotional component negative. Overall slightly negative signal that should carry into Friday.  News Corp sold  Myspace for $35M after paying $580M for it six years ago. They bought and held. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 28, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Tuesday continued Monday's lead and allowed us to play catch up with two of our three programs leveraged to the upside.  For Wednesday we reduced our leverage in our primary program.  Though the market may have gone up too far too fast our emotional component is only reading neutral. Our broad based group is very negative and our money flow component is positive. Other readings combine to give us a slightly positive outlook and I expect more subdued activity for the remainder of the week.  The NDX is already up 3.5% from when we noted our bottom program had called a turn on June 15th and this move is expected to continue into mid July.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 27, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Monday's strong up-day is a good example of how quickly things can change and emotions can flip from glum to glee. Our programs attempt to remain ahead of the changes and most of the time we are successful at it, though not Monday.  For Tuesday all three programs have gone long.  So far I expect that they will continue that way for Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 24, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our signal and probabilities turned more negative for Monday. Friday's slide was good for our primary program and brought it positive for June. That program is up 9.5% ytd and continues to run at a 21% annual compound rate of return since the start of 2006. June was rougher on our other two programs and our average year to date returns (for the three combined) is +5.5%.  In Mid-March the NDX hit 2189 intraday and last Friday and Monday we had 2187, so that area would be a good place to look for support if this market continues lower.  Nothing particularly encouraging in the news but a down Monday could trigger some buying for Tuesday.  An up Monday would be a surprise due to the low probability we have for it, but a burst of positive news can always send it higher.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 23, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Thursday was a very strange day. The NDX ran from 0 to -1.4% to +0.9% while the S&P could not go positive. We continue to look for more downside Friday, though it appeared to be pretty much played out our closing numbers suggest that it might carry into early next week.  Oil prices plunged on word that 60 million barrels of oil would be released from the strategic reserve.  Oracle earnings topped forecasts for earnings and revenue and investors celebrated by slamming the stock over -7% in early aftermarket trading. This is not the response you would expect in a healthy market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 22, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Our primary signal turned flat on the close after our cutoff time. So we remain partially long in the primary program while short in program #3. Overall our programs are now positioned slightly to the down side.  Bernanke told us what we already knew, that the economy is not going anywhere fast and unemployment is barely improving. As we had mentioned before, the QE series, while good for the stock market, was not helping the brick and mortar economy.  A large temporary cut in the payroll tax without cutting social security would help put more money in workers pockets. It would be quick, direct and effective.  The economy will not improve until those people with jobs can spend. Once spending increases companies could afford to hire which will mean more sales and recovery. QE helps corporations get capital to expand overseas. That is not helping the local US economy. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 21, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 50% Long Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Surprise large up move on Tuesday ahead of the Greek government confidence vote. Even RIMM gained over 10%.  This looks like what would be expected after our program's bottom call last Wednesday (see below) but other factors look less certain and as always we will go day by day. The greater volatility often creates uncertainty and  can lead to more down side. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 20, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Each of our programs took its own direction for Tuesday, a reflection of their individual focus.  The world news related to the market has toned down. The Supreme Court backed Wal-Mart in a class action sex discrimination lawsuit that could have broad implications for major corporations and give the markets an early morning boost on Tuesday but four days of gains might be too much for the S&P after the long decline, the NDX with only one day up might squeek another. .   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 17, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  My comments on June 15 regarding our bottom signal confused at least one person so let me make this clear.  Occasionally we post long term views within these comments, however we always trade our accounts one day at a time. We re-evaluate the markets daily and move into the best position that we can determine.  We have always done this and I expect we shall always do this regardless of any long term expectations.  By re-evaluating the markets daily we de-trend the markets and rely on the disciplined application of our own assembled programmed intelligence to out perform the indexes.  Statistically, over time, this has worked out very well.  Details of our quarterly returns starting with the first quarter of 2006 are posted on our Forecast page along with the latest year to date returns for each of our programs. The signal for Monday is very strong and long, but early expectations for Tuesday are showing that there is a good probability of a resumption of the down side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 16, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, Long 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Today's action was mixed with gains in the Dow and S&P while the NDX dipped.  Greece still holds everyone's attention.  RIMM's poor earnings, though suspected caused another 14% drop in the aftermarket. The stock has fallen 57% since February.  PE ratio now in the 5x to 6x range. All is not bad as they shipped more playbook tablets than forecast in the first six weeks after launch. At some point the stock should have a good bounce. The BlackBerry is not dead. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 15, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Today we got a "bottom" signal. The last signal was August 24th 2010. Historically it gives an all clear signal and says we are at or within a few days of the bottom. Additionally it says the market will be higher a month from now. I can't say for certain that this time will be the same, (it was wrong in September of 2008) but the track record has been good overall. Footage of riots in Greece helped propel the markets lower on Tuesday.  New issue Pandora radio managed to gain over 8% on its launch. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 14, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 100%: Money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A very strong up day, but I am no longer enthusiastic about follow through. Our signal for Tuesday was exceptionally strong, but Wednesday's signal slipped to slightly negative. The emotional component stayed neutral while the cash flow component stayed positive. Our second and third programs are looking for more up-side so I expect the normal battle between the bulls and bears and I do not expect much progress in either direction. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 13, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We sold the Real Estate fund in program #1 but held everything else firm. S&P moved Greece into position as the lowest rated country in the world warning that debt restructuring or default was very likely. This should not hurt the US directly but indicates that all is not well with the world's economy.  Our emotional component has moved from negative to neutral and the overall signal strength is exceptionally high. A multi-day rally is likely.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 12, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I believe the fear hit a day earlier than expected as both the NDX and S&P fell about 1.5% on Friday.  We are now looking for a recovery on Monday or Tuesday which would carry through Thursday.  Emotions still seem to be running negative and that could slow the initial rally. The recent series of computer hacks from Sony to the IMF are the most troubling items in the news as they are the early warnings signs of eventual world wide cyber warfare. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 9, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I am expecting some real fear to come into the market next week alongside some more selling. The VIX was significantly lower today, somewhat optimistic for the market action. The market is leaning lower for Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.          

Comments: June 8, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund, Long,25%Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This is an interesting decline.  The slow steady drop is not causing any great amount of fear in the market place. Fear tends to increase as the market becomes more erratic.  This slow erosion will evolve into something else soon enough.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 7, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The S&P has now closed down five days in a row but the markets are still calm. Bernanke hinted on QE3 saying the economy was weak enough to warrant keeping the Fed's monetary support in place.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 6, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The S&P has now closed down four days in a row. Buying the S&P after a four day drop has accounted for over 40% of the total S&P gain since 1993. Not  a bad trade. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 5, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is: 75% Money market, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The indexes are now off about 4.5% from their recent highs and the market is no longer a one sided up market. Yet we do not see the normal signs of a bear market so taking a big short position seems equally dangerous. Our signals are still overall positive. All our programs are individually diversified over time and a 1/3.1/3.1/3 combination of the three is generating a better than 8% return year-to-date out-performing the US and international indexes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 2, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We observed some cross currents in today's trading that resulted in increasing our exposure for program #2 and decreasing it for program #1. Overall the outlook is mildly positive.  Goldman continued their slump with notice of receiving a subpoena from the Manhattan District Attorney's office.  On the plus side Groupon filed a $750 million IPO.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: June 1, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is: 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  UGH! Every now and then we get a day like this and we get set back a couple of weeks, but that is how it works. All or our programs remain ahead of the NDX and S&P ytd. with the #2 program way out in front. Thursday looks kind of gray but it also appears that Friday could start the next move to the upside as the basic money flow patterns will have improved by then.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.         

Comments: May 31, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Overall signal strength increased as the emotional component went flat. We increased our exposure in program #1 and held steady in the others. Tuesday was somewhat stronger than expected and the major indexes have now been up 4 days in a row. I believe there could be a bit more life in them for Wednesday. Housing is discouraging along with Greece.   it looks like there is still enough bond buying to keep the market from sliding very far as most indexes lost ground for the month.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 27, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We still do not have a strong signal.  This indicates that the market will be more easily influenced by news as investors do not have a preset conviction.  The signal for Tuesday is very mixed but leaning higher and we are partially long.  Often  news just pushes the markets too far in one direction but some market moving news, like major tax changes or special fed actions do have long lasting directional consequences.  Have a nice long weekend.  New long term forecast was posted last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 26, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our indicators have gone negative, but not enough to take a short position. Our #3 program remains long at 1x indicating that the downside, if it occurs, should not be very severe as the #3 program requires a very strong negative signal to go short.  Friday leads us into a three day weekend that could cause some pre-holiday worry with multiple European monetary concerns. Any downside on Friday could be a cause for more selling on Tuesday.  Overall I am not looking for much upside until late next week. New long term forecast was posted last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 25, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The upside momentum has peaked and we reduced our exposure, but there should be enough strength left to push the market a bit higher on Thursday. There seems to be enough downside pressure starting Friday to suppress the markets past the end of the month and throughout next week. Still, we adjust our position daily to anticipate the market's direction as the recent data dictates. New long term forecast was posted last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 24, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund, .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal strength improved and the emotional component  also turned positive.  The S&P held above the prior day's lows but the NDX dipped below it and closed near the 2300 level.  Yandex the Russian Google was launched today to a 55% gain.  Looks like a $29 floor was put under AIG, perhaps it will start another run toward $50.   New long term forecast was posted last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 23, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund, .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Italy moved into the financial worry category in Europe and the expected pause on Monday turned into a rout, costing the NDX almost 1.5%. Tuesday should be better and we have positioned ourselves for the up-side.  There are still some negatives to overcome as the money flow aspects are leaning lower and the emotional components have only moved to neutral.  Under these conditions we could have another test of Monday's lows prior to any sizeable up move.   New long term forecast was posted last week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 20, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund, Long: 25% Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our broad signal strength remains negative and holding.  The emotional component is still negative and a partial short was triggered in program #1 along with a long signal for Real Estate.  I expect the down turn to carryover into Monday with a bounce Tuesday or Wednesday. Seems like the Middle East is less of a market mover in recent days and even Greece is not causing drastic fears.   New long term forecast was posted this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 19, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market, (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our broad based indicator has gone negative along with our emotional component.  Signals for both our primary program and #2 program have moved us 100% to the money market. It looks like the market will top out here at least for a few days. Our #3 program remains positive so I suspect that any pull back will be small.  The S&P is about 1.5% from its recent high. The ipo LinkedIn was mis-priced resulting in a 109% gain. There are some problems with the site, I was told that a number of users are misrepresenting their affiliations with companies and there is no method for the companies to "un-friend" those ties.  At 650 times 2010 earnings there is a big assumption that strong growth will continue for a long time, and in this rapidly changing world that is not very likely. New long term forecast was posted yesterday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 18, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund, (2)  Long/money market program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals remain positive but the strength has diminished. We decreased our long position in program #1 and increased it in program #2.  The somewhat different focus in each of our programs smoothes out our equity growth curve when they are combined. As of today all three program are ahead of the indexes year to date.  With the signal strength fading I would estimate just one more day of this upside run then a couple of flat or down days taking us into the beginning of next week. Our programs were built to anticipate rather than follow the markets and they read the normal patterns and emotional components set up within the market. News events will adds to, or takes away from those patterns and we cant foresee those events, however being in sync with the underlying patterns themselves brings the biggest rewards over time. A new long term forecast was posted today.  Read it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 17, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund,  25% money market.  (2)  Long/money market program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals have indicated a much stronger market than the indexes are reflecting.  We continue to remain long, but somewhat less exposed for Wednesday.  Earnings continue to come in strong and sales expectations weak as Dell follows up on HP's report.  This seems to be the general trend as the local economy's problems are left unattended. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 16, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund,  25% long: Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX showed significant weakness on Monday. We are fully positioned for the up-side and although our signal and probabilities have moved strongly to the upside there could always be some carry-over downside into Tuesday.  I continue to look for a bounce this week prior to more deterioration in May.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 13, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 75% money market,  25% long Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is  75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I continue to look for some support early this coming week, but Friday's action was not encouraging.  As best I can see the markets will stage a small rally early in the week, maybe Tuesday, then head lower throughout the month. Our #1 and #2 programs had a small weekly gain with program #3 slightly lower, in line with the NDX.  Although some indicators are positive, Mondays generally behave badly after a weak Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 12, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 75% money market,  25% long Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is  50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We lightened our long positions for Friday.  I expect another push higher by Monday with Friday perhaps acting as a resting place.  Goldman Sachs took a -3.5% hit after Matt Taibbi's latest article in the Rolling Stone.  With enough pressure we may actually see someone at Golden Goldman go down. It won't be easy or likely, but it will be interesting to watch and see what unlimited funds and multiple connections at the very top can do.  I am sure the folks at Goldman Sachs are pleased that Elliot Spitzer was taken out early.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 11, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% long Rydex Real Estate fund.  (2)  Long/money market program is  75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our positions remain unchanged with the exception of adding 25% Real Estate fund to program 1.  Lower oil prices are good for the local economy which should help real estate. The market seems to be making an attempt to break through recent highs and this usually becomes a series of attempts so I expect more up-side activity.  Oil fell to under $100, not a problem, but the size of the move was ~-4.7%.  Large moves, up or down are not good for the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 10, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Tuesday had a larger gain than I expected.  Looks like a slow version of the old QE days. We moved out of the Rydex Real Estate fund for Wednesday and back into the NDX in our #1 program.  The probabilities are looking for a small up move. Our look ahead is telling us that this move might continue into Thursday.  The Microsoft / Skype deal should get partial credit for Tuesday's action.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 9, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long 25% Rydex Real Estate fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Small gains on Monday were less than expected for the NDX.  I have reduced our long exposure to the NDX for Tuesday. Monday's action continues the small daily changes that have dominated with one exception since mid-March. Our probabilities are slightly negative, but our #2 and #3 programs remain positive. S&P cut Greece's credit rating. Zillow reported that housing prices declined for the 57th month, they are not expecting a bottom till 2012 at the earliest.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.       

Comments: May 8, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund and 25% Rydex Real Estate fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The surge and drop in silver is not being influenced by changes in the US economy and although the fluctuations can cause problems influencing the liquidation of other assets, that is generally a short term activity. I expect a strong Monday in the stock market with carryover into Tuesday. Problems are still expected as we get further into May as the traders try to comprehend just how much additional support will be handed to the markets by our government. Close attention will most likely be necessary to avoid surprises.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: May 5, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 75% money market and 25% Long Rydex Real Estate fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  It seems that the sharp drop in silver has had some carryover for the stock market with the RUT down over 4% this past week, the S&P off over 2% and the NDX not so bad ,off less than 1.5%. Our own accounts are down less than 1% this week. The 27% drop in silver in just a few days must have killed some leveraged hedge funds.  Many hedge funds aren't hedged at all and are high risk operations. The volatility has picked up some which helps us read the markets. Friday may show some base building. We have a flat signal with only our #3 program long and some positives regarding the Real Estate fund. So far I am looking for some early strength next week with some weakness later in the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: May 4, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund and 25% Long Rydex Real Estate fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX closed off less than 1/4% recovering most of its early drop.  Our signal strengthened but I am not expecting much power or follow through in any rally. The positive is that the NDX has not had a very bad day since mid-March, the negative is that erratic behavior is showing up in the commodity markets and could easily carry over.  Sustained advances like it smooth.  I see a good chance for additional  weakness to show up next week and last through May.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: May 3, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund and 25% Long Rydex Real Estate fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our primary signal turned slightly positive for Wednesday and our third program turned positive. Our second program remained in the money market an indication to me that the bull is not back 100%.  Thursday might be a better day to take a larger position. More companies are reporting better earnings with lowered expectations. This could keep the markets in a trading range.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: May 2, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund . (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  With positive news from earnings reports, M&A activity and a terminated Bin Laden we would have expected more from Monday's markets. Failure to go higher on good news is not a good sign. We have moved partially short for Tuesday.  I do not think that we shall see a large or long duration pull back since money is still flowing from the Government. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 29, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund and 25% Long: Rydex Real Estate (RYHRX). (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I expect a small move to the up-side for Monday. And I believe we will have a down day on Tuesday (preliminary view).  Earnings have been mostly good and the Fed is helping keep the dollar down and stocks up. Eventually international investors will tire of low returns in terms of their currency and cut back on buying US stocks. With the Vix under 15 expect small daily changes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 28, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund and 25% Long: Rydex Real Estate (RYHRX). (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The new real estate portion of our primary program shined again on Thursday in an otherwise dull day.  For Friday we remain long in the Rydex real estate fund  and Short with the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Although the real estate program generally moves in sync with the NDX there are different factors influencing each fund's direction.  RIMM lowered guidance after the bell and its shares fell 10%.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 27, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Long:  75% Rydex NDX 2x fund, 25% Rydex Real Estate (RYHRX). (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  For Thursday we moved back into the real estate fund. This was the dullest Fed announcement yet. The markets generally bounce around at announcement time but today it was calm, the bears seem to have given up.  Bernanke said the Fed will continue to reinvest maturing debt back into the bond market and that includes the mortgage backed securities.  The FED purchased 1.25 trillion in MBS in 2009 and early 2010. So reinvesting this money back into Treasuries amounts to a mini QE3 without the printing of new money. This is good news for the markets. Our signal remains positive with only our #2 program in the money market. The second day after a Fed meeting often reverses the trend so some caution would be advised for Friday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 26, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long:  75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our venture into the Rydex real estate fund was a winner on its first day and we moved back into the money market at the close with that portion and into the NDX with the rest. Our overall signal has improved but there are signs of weakness in the pricing action of some high- volatility stocks, so going should be a bit shaky as there appears to be some market rotation action.  AMZN posted lower earnings than expected, then gave positive guidance on revenue. It slipped 5% in the early aftermarket then turned around and headed higher.  The focus on the Fed may be overblown, but we shall see on Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 25, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is  75% money market, 25% Rydex RYHRX. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Today marks the first major addition to our primary program since its inception.  Earlier this year we reduced our maximum market exposure from 2x to 1.5x to better handle one day international surprises. This put our maximum invested capital at 75% leaving at least 25% always in the money market. Today we added a second independent algorithm to trade that 25% using the Rydex long Real estate fund. This 25% portion will be in the real estate fund about 35% of the time and in the money market the other 75% of the time. Based on our studies this should both reduce draw-downs and increase our returns.  But as with all investments we can't guarantee those characteristics into the future. Our probabilities for Tuesday are somewhat negative. All eyes are focused on the Fed, but the Fed seems to be firmly under the spell of the corporations and will do no harm. Though the same can not be said for what happens to our local economy. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 21, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is  Short:  75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is  100% money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   Our accounts had an excellent week bringing everyone to new all time highs. The standout program continues to be our long/money market program now up over 18% ytd. I am expecting a pull back in the markets next week starting with a slide on Monday.  This could get tricky as the markets have come within one percent of the highs this year and traders may want to touch them prior to any correction. This is a reasonable assumption since the indexes continue to be strong. On the other hand some of the high flyers like BIDU have not fully participated in this up move and tend to lead the NDX.  With last Monday in mind this Monday could be a swinger, even without the help of a Standard and Poors US downgrade warning.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 20, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is  Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is Long  100% RydexNDX 2x  fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.   The NDX had its first day with greater than a 2% gain since November of 2010.  Looks like more to follow, as Apple's earnings, released after the close,  jumped past estimates. Apple was up about 3.5% in early aftermarket trading.  We remain long and leveraged with a strong signal, but another large move would more likely be a blow-off rather than a call to board. I really doubt that any carry-over would last until Monday. Stay alert.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 19, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is  Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. (2)  Long/money market program is Long  75% RydexNDX 2x  fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Tuesdays trading brought us very close to Friday's close on the NDX.  Intel reported earnings after the close that sent the stock up over 6% in early aftermarket trading. With another strong signal we continue to stay long and partially leveraged.  Overall earning reports have been disappointing with banks in particular showing reduced revenues. But banks were not looking to lend, instead they relied on extra fees and trading.  The problems in Japan also affected the earnings of some of the reporting companies. I expect that the traders are now looking to see if the markets can get past their 2011 highs over the next few weeks. This could be trouble with QE2 expiration looking real and revenue weak.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 18, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is  Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long  100% RydexNDX 2x  fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Interestingly the S&P cut in the outlook for US debt did not have  much of an effect on Treasury bonds and had a positive effect on the dollar.  It would appear that the thinking is this poor outlook will spur the US to fix the problems and that would make the dollar stronger while doing so will cause hardship for corporations causing stocks to fall. What ever the interpretation we still have a strong signal for Tuesday and the NDX did recover a large portion of its initial loss. Getting the markets above Friday's close could be difficult.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 17, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is  Long 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund   (2) Long/money market program is Long  100% RydexNDX 2x  fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our three program average is slightly over 6% ytd.  We are seeing an improvement in overall sentiment from our perspective.  The S&P has clawed its way slightly higher the past three days while the NDX has fallen the past two.  The VIX is showing no fear at all as it has lost almost half its value this past month.  All of our signals have turned long and strong and I expect that a rally shall carry for a few days.  Stocks with poor earnings are more likely to delay a report so early in the season it is reasonable to expect good news. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: April 14, 2011...sorry late posting.

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is  100% Rydex money market fund   (2) Long/money market program is  100% Rydex money market fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets rebounded late in the day but could hardly get past even. The NDX lost about 1/4%.  Google's earnings came in after the close and beat the street on revenue but slipped on earnings. Earnings generally can be fixed, revenue is more difficult so I don't see major problems here.  The stock still took a hit in the aftermarket which sent the NDX lower. My thinking is the market will not pull back very far on this news and Monday will be positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 13, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund   (2) Long/money market program is Long 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The NDX did well Wednesday, but the S&P hardly budged. Google should report earning on Thursday.  Google is 10% off it's peak in February meaning earnings expectations are probably not very high so any good news could give it a pop. Our signals are strong for Thursday but do not  expect much carryover going into the weekend. We have leveraged our Number 1 and Number 2 programs to the long side.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 12, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long 35% Rydex NDX 2x fund   (2) Long/money market program is Long 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We remain long in all programs but have reduced our exposure in program 1. A quick look to Thursday also has positive factors and I expect that even if Wednesday continues to slide the drop will be short lived. Oil is in the news and the news reporters are calling it from both sides. Higher oil prices are taxing the economy and causing the markets to go lower and lower oil prices mean demand has dropped and corporations should expect reduced earnings causing the markets to go lower. From my viewpoint higher oil prices will not slow down growth in China, Brazil and other rapidly growing economies but the higher prices will continue to pressure the recovery in the US. From a multinational perspective the US is becoming a smaller piece of their pie and they will continue to push for a weak dollar raising oil prices in the US. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 11, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund   (2) Long/money market program is Long 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  This is our first overall long signal since our long for March 24.  Since then the market as measured by the NDX gained about one tenth of a percent.  Hopefully the markets will now move off of center.  Alcoa came in with good earnings but shares slipped 3% in the aftermarket.  Not good early news for our positions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 8, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our primary program spent the week in the money market as most indexes slipped a small amount. Our second program spent only one day long this week and our third program stayed long as the market never generated enough of a scare to push the prices very from from neutral. By Tuesday of next week I expect to see a bit of a pick up in market interest. For now we have poor politics at play, I wonder how long a government shut down would be needed to balance the budget and how many years of stimulus would be implemented to recover from it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 7, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. Where did all the traders go?  More of the same slightly negative expectations for Friday.  A look ahead to Monday shows more of nothing.  The "hot" stocks continue to generate some action with NFLX losing, -2.5% and BIDU gaining, +1.3%.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 6, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  It is like nobody's home. Only slightly negative expectations for Thursday.  Oil made a new high which could help the downside case. Investing is about gathering information, synthesizing it and having the discipline to implement your program. Today we have the discipline to remain in the money market.  A peek ahead to Friday does not show any more sense of direction.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 5, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in Money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The dead zone continues as far as signal strength. Not enough for a position. Our #3 program is always in and tends to lean to the positive unless it has a strong negative conviction. The news is also subdued.  Low volatility is mostly healthy for a continuation of the up-trend, but if the volatility becomes too low and remains there it can slowly drag the markets lower. I do not expect much this week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 4, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Early market gains were wiped out but we are still in a dead zone. Soon the focus will be earnings and the impact of commodity prices on those earnings with QE3 always in the background. After hours Texas Instruments gave notice that they will acquire National Semiconductor sending the aftermarket higher, especially the techs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: April 3, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. The very low grade signals continue for Monday. We shall wait for stronger signals to fully participate. The stock market seems to be taking all the news out of Japan and the Middle East without a care. The Vix continues under 20 and the 90 day t-bill slipped to .055%. The last time we saw T-Bills with that low a yield  was June 14, 2010 and the markets stayed rather flat for the following two months.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 31, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  More divisiveness in our signals for Friday but both our pricing component and our broad based components are negative. A mixed close in the markets on Thursday reflects the lack of conviction we have seen this week.  Overall the indexes saw their best first quarterly returns in ten years. But ours did even better, the average of our three program returns was  +7% for the first quarter. Using an equal weight of our three programs for the best diversification resulted in outperforming the already well performing indexes but with lower draw-downs than either the S&P or the NDX.  Low draw-downs along with strong gains and a long history is what you should be looking for in an investment program. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 30, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is 100% Money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The markets are not talking to us this week as we move back to the money market in our primary program. Program #3 has switched to short. Another government payroll report due out Friday, and it should not be earth shaking as the private reports are running just a tad low. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 29, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is 29% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund    (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A solid rebound to the up-side on Tuesday providing our signal with enough input for a small short. My expectation is weakness for a couple of days.  If Iraq and Afghanistan were not enough we are now supporting a third war in Libya.  Capital that is not going to the war efforts are being sent to the banks as QE2.  Tinkle down does not work when the money leaves the country. This leaves the states, which depend on income, property and sales taxes, to tighten up. Those local companies that depend on purchases from the states are closing up, putting even more pressure on the local economies. The stock market, however, has been holding up as if a QE3 is coming, and maybe it is. Could be the government got a good price on the purchase of US currency, paper, ink and printing  from overseas. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 28, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The markets drifted down slightly on Monday.  Our first two programs avoided the drift since they were in the money market while our third program had a small gain. The third program reversed position on the close and is now long for Tuesday. Still the market is only whispering and we are on the sidelines waiting for a stronger statement.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 25, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is 100% in money market   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Stronger than expected tech earnings from Oracle helped keep  the market up on Friday.  Monday looks only slightly negative and could easily go either way. My guess is that the markets will slow down for a few days and resume the upside about mid week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 24, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is Short: 29% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% in money market.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I expect that the market will start its pull back on Friday with growing weakness into Monday. Our programs have started to gradually shift positions with # 1 partially short, #2 in the money market and #3 still long. Our programs tacked on solid gains this week and all programs are positive ytd. The CEO of BlackRock stated today that "stocks are cheap".  BlackRock is the world's largest money manager but you should note that BlackRock stock BLK is languishing 21% below its peak in early 2010 and is also 14% below its 2008 peak. The stock lost more than 60% of its value in the recession. These guys are great salesmen but that does not translate into an investment stock.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 23, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signal momentum peaked and though still positive has started to roll over. There is a good chance that one more day, perhaps even a strong day is in the works for Thursday but I can't see the bull going into Friday. I don't recall any time that there was as much simultaneous turmoil in as many countries as exists today, and that can't be a good sign going forward. The pizzazz of Groupon may already be wearing off as new competition enters the field and Groupon's president prepares to leave the company prior to Groupon going public. I would be wary of this one. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 22, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a strong signal and are looking for good upside on Wednesday. Tuesday the market gave up very little and should be in a good position to continue higher. Over time our various models come in and out of favor. Currently our pricing model is running at  high accuracy and is also suggesting  a higher Wednesday.  International events are pushing the price of oil higher and that could be the damper, but it looks like positives are in place to continue into Thursday.  After the close, Adobe announced reduced expectations going forward due to Japan's crisis but the market pushed it higher another positive sign for Wednesday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 21, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 60%Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Monday gave us the initial push I mentioned in my last post. I expect to see additional upside either Tuesday or Wednesday. Even with Monday's jump the market remains in a somewhat low risk position that can support additional buying.  Each of our investment programs has a different focus and act independently.  We have decreased the exposure in our primary program while increasing the exposure in our second program. News out of Japan seems to have settled down and the news out of Libya is about as expected. The AT&T - T Mobile deal was a big plus. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 18, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75%Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I see more positives growing in the underlying trend for early this coming week. The market has had a reasonable pull back and may be ready for another shot upward. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 17, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A large early gain slipped to a moderate gain as the day progressed indicating that their may be bigger concerns than Japan. Like what will happen when QE2 ends?  There are sizeable long term gains in the accounts of many investors that bought into the market after March of 2009 and they may want to lock in the tax rate.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 16, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Even though reports from Japan worsened and the Nikkei rallied what got under investors today was the new all time low for housing starts. This may not mean that much for our group of multinational corporations who do most of their business overseas, but the market investors themselves live in the US and it has become more and more obvious that the middle class is dying as the top of the food chain (folks like the two execs at Ford that just got $94 million) eat everyone else's lunch. [No complaints if Ford was a private company.] As to market behavior we remain positive and are expanding our exposure. The problems are not contained, but the risks are in the open. The Middle East remains in turmoil and the US local economy seems to be decelerating, still markets do not just go in one direction and a bounce is expected.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 15, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 29% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With the Nikkei down over 10% the panic spread to US equities. But in the US buyers jumped in to recover about two thirds of the initial loss. I still believe the impact on the US will be limited.  Our primary program is comfortable with volatility but saw reason to reduce our exposure prior to the close Wednesday, the last minute drop in the indexes is positive.  We remain long but less than 1x overall. The two day drop in the NDX has been less than (1.75%) which compares to the Nikkei's (16%).  Still there is trouble in the Middle East that has not gone away, so more jitters could be felt in the US.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 14, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The terrible disaster in Japan means a number of things for the US.  First consider the end of any chance of nuclear power plant construction  for another 30 years. Second, American corporations will benefit as the third largest economy will be hampered going forward and the US will get a portion of that slack.  Expect a boost for solar energy, natural gas, wind  and oil. The negative for the world at large is higher oil prices. Expect more bad news to come forth on the nuclear meltdowns.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 11, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program is Long: 27% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   (2) Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Still mixed influences. Our primary program moved to neutral at the close but we had the partial long position. Broad based indicators are slightly positive and our pricing indicator is also positive. Japan's quake should not have much of an effect on the US markets unless the nuclear meltdown situation becomes real.  This was a good week for us with programs 1 and 2 showing gains. Program 3 held flat and the markets fell. The program is expecting a positive bias early next week, but that could easily be overturned if the fear of a  nuclear meltdown in some Japanese power plants becomes a reality. Early after-market trading is to the down-side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 10, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program is 100% money market.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% Money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A number of local and overseas influences helped bring down an already weak market.  China's imports and exports fell. More unemployment in the US and worries over the Middle East. Friday gets more tricky. Our signals are leaning lower but there are enough mixed influences to be worrisome. My expectation is for some early downside and a recovery that may or not get positive (or it could happen the opposite way).  Either way I think Friday will take some of the fear out of the market and allow Monday to be a more certain day for a recovery.  Remember, you don't have to trade every day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 9, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program 27% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% Money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Small down day for most of the indexes but the NDX was harder hit. Our primary signal slipped into negative territory and we took a small negative position.  We have mixed signals and I see that continuing through the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 8, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program 50% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% Money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. The Semiconductors were under some pressure from a downgrade, but that might be worked off.  Our signal remains positive and broad based, our pricing component also remains positive but I believe the next few days will be subdued.  We moved into the money market with our second program. Oil remains the focus of the market and should hold traders attention over the next week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 7, 2011

Current position for Tuesday: (1)  Primary program 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex NDX 1x fund. The news this morning led by rising oil prices was mostly bad, so I was surprised to see the market climb higher in early trading.  Monday did turn out to be a good day for our accounts, and we switched to the long side at the close. The late rally may have taken some of the spring out of a rebound, but there should still enough left for a higher close as our pricing model and broad based indicators are positive.  I don't believe that the selling is finished for the week and a test of today's lows is expected. Early aftermarket trading is to the down side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 4, 2011

Current position for Monday: (1)  Primary program 75% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. No change in our position over the weekend. Gains in all our programs with our #2 program now up 11.9% ytd and sitting in the money market. The markets managed to recover about half of their fall Friday afternoon, but that does not change our outlook as our probabilities look even more negative. Our longer term view looking into the coming week shows an early dip, recovery and then resumption of the drop. Should be an interesting week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 3, 2011

Current position for Friday: (1)  Primary program 75% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% money market .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Short: Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund. Very strong market day and no change in our anticipated forecast for Friday. The signal is negative and broad based. Pricing component is also negative. Still the POMO could have some legs and keep the market on a recovery path, but I believe we will have a couple of days on the down side. Today's earnings news was mostly neutral.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 2, 2011

Current position for Thursday: (1)  Primary program 35% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 75% Long: Rydex  NDX 2x Fund .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund. The market signal for Thursday remains long, but lower in signal strength. I do not believe that Wednesday's high will be broken immediately. Our pricing component remains strong while the broad based indicators have diminished. I expect more selling on Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

Comments: March 1, 2011

Current position for Wednesday: (1)  Primary program 75% Long: Rydex NDX 2x Fund.   (2) Long/money market program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 2x Fund .  (3) New Long/Short program is 100% Long: Rydex  NDX 1x fund.  Bernanke's speech certainly did not help the markets. According to Bernanke, production is running at the same pace as pre-recession only without 7.5 million workers. So he means the multinational corporations are doing fine. But nothing he said indicated that there would not be a QE3 and that should be helpful to the stock market, but somewhat harmful to the broad-based US economy who will eventually pay for it when the government will need to borrow at higher rates.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.  

For earlier comments made in 2nd half of 2010