Daily Market Commentary  (and next day's position.)

Comments:  December 31, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex S&P 1x fund.     We moved from the Russell to the S&P.  Our most important discovery during 2014 is related to market behavior during low volatility conditions versus behavior during high volatility conditions and I shall elaborate more on this is future posts.  Over the past few years volatility had declined.  This year the volatility reached low levels not seen since 1989.  The extraordinary low levels may be over as the volatility has moved to a more normal level this past month.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 30, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex RUT 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex RUT 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex RUT 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex RUT 1x fund.    Wednesday is a shortened day with an expected positive attitude.  We reversed yesterdays position. All indicators are long and the volatility remains in calm territory.  I have moved over to the Russell 2000 index for the last day of the year and expect to move into the S&P for January.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 29, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our signal has become more negative and we increased our downside exposure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 26, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Partial negative signal for Monday. Our Market Structure level remains negative and the volatility is in a low to middle range, allowing for possible downside.      Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 25, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   The holidays have toned down the volatility over the past few days extending the easy gains the market has become used to.  Overall trend remains positive.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 23, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    Wednesday is a shortened day with an expected positive attitude.  We reversed yesterdays position. All indicators are long and the volatility remains in calm territory.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 22, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   We have taken our first short position since early November as the volatility has reached a level that enables a more successful trade.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments: December 21, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   The market volatility continues to increase, but should calm down again going into the holidays.  It is now above the median, but below the average and is still positive for stocks.  As the volatility increases investors get more worried and are easier to panic.  Most large swings in the market, both ways occur under higher volatility readings.  The good news on our side is that the added tension makes the markets easier to read.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 18, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 1x fund.     We have a small long signal and have taken a partial long position. The NDX had its second best day of the year and it closed on the high of the day.  When an index closes on the high it indicates an overly zealous market and the following day often turns negative.  We have no way of knowing if the market will close on the high, when we place our trade a few minutes prior to the close.  The market is no longer in a small (daily change) mode but the volatility remains below mid range.  Buy and hold does much better under low volatility conditions and so we should see more wild swings if this move towards higher volatility continues.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 17, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   Three down days in a row often spurs the market higher and when oil stayed flat the market took off.  The FED helped by not doing much as was expected.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 16, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   A late in the day rout knocked Amazon and Google down 3.5%, while the NYA and the RUT remained in positive territory.  Strange day.  With three down days in a row for the NDX the most likely move is higher, but our probabilities are not positive enough for us to stay long.  The Ruble has lost half its value compared to the dollar over the past five months.  The first effect of Russia raising the key rate was raising a red flag (no pun intended) that the Ruble was in bad trouble and this had the opposite effect of what they were looking for.  Hardest hit from the oil price drop are Russia and Iran, which should be making Washington happy.  The extra volatility should be a plus for us going forward.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 15, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    Perhaps it wasn't oil causing the slip in stock prices.  Russia has announced a hike in their key rate to 17%.  That is near-collapse territory and enough to send ripples though the stock market.  We have gone fully long for Tuesday having sat out the Friday and Monday drop.  Price movements continue to reflect investor confidence.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 12, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   Although the VIX has picked up the market continues to move in small steps as investors remain confident that this is a blip in an upward moving market.  Until we see larger changes the market should weather this shower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 11, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   Small recovery.  Although the fundamentals look bad the market should be able to keep from having a total meltdown as long as the changes continue to remain small. The small daily changes are a big plus that overshadows most negative inputs.  The VIX jumped to 20 on Thursday showing some fear on the up-day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 10, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.   Wednesday's drop kicked the Vix over 18, the higher emotional level is good for us as it makes the market easier to read.  Even with today's drop we remain in a small daily change market where the basic trend is higher.  Our Market Structure remains at one step from most negative. As the drop in oil continues we look to copper for a clue.  Copper has moved from almost $4.00 in 2008 to $1.50 in 2009 to $4.50 in 2011 and slid back below $3.00 now.  Like oil we also have excessive supply.  The slowdown in China and failure of the rest of the world to meet growth expectations. Is the cause.  So what now?  Watch the market's daily changes both up and down as they climb the US markets will turn more risky for buy and hold.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 9, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    Shanghai index plunged over 5% after gaining 50% since July.  It sent the US indexes lower, but oil recovered and the US indexes regained most of their losses. The big 4 tech/entertainment stocks, NFLX, AAPL, GOOG and AMZN each gained over 1%.  China does not drive the US, we still drive China, at least for awhile, but that does not mean they can't send a market shock wave.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 8, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Another sharp decline in the price of oil took the market for a ride lower.  We have moved to the sidelines.  The daily changes remained small this past week so I expect any decline will be short lived. The market generally will react to falling gas prices regardless of whether it is supply or demand.   Falling demand is a large problem for all,  while expanding supply is more of a problem for the oil industry, which is what we are seeing now.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 5, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We hold fully long for a fourth day.  After some activity early in the week the past three days have been flat.  We remain positive for Monday while Tuesday's direction is more cloudy.  Strong new-hire news Friday morning did nothing for the markets.  Our Market Structure is very negative and could hit a bottom next week bringing with it potential for a market decline.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 4, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We remain fully long for Friday.  Our positive view holds through Monday, but there are a number of reasons why next week could turn bleak.  Our Market Structure level is very negative and this sets the tone for more down days than up days, while our short term indicators will run out of positive steam by Tuesday adding to the negative tone.  On the up side the daily changes remain small and that keeps markets from going lower.  Larger moves over the next few days would not be good for continuation of the upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 3, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We remain fully long for Thursday. Most indicators are very positive and with the absence of negative news we should go higher.  Daily changes remain small. Outlook appears positive through Monday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 2, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    As our Market Structure level became more negative we were able to move fully long for Wednesday.  I am expecting a recovery to where the market was on Friday, then a continuation of the recent "small (daily) change" rally for the rest of the week.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  December 1, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The news is becoming more difficult to decipher as more "news" sources with agendas hit the web. The search engines now blend ads in with the news releases making it even more important to verify the source.  Even trusted media skew the news with adjectives and connotations. Beware.......  Monday, this one down day,  will most likely not change the upward momentum of the market as the daily changes remain small.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 28, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The XOI oil index fell over 7% on Friday taking most indexes with it. The NDX being an exception.  The market has set up to go lower, but the small daily changes are keeping it afloat.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 26, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We moved fully long for Friday.  Our Market Structure level became more negative.  Have a happy Thanksgiving.  Friday is a shortened trading day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 25, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   All others money market.  A timid "long" signal for Wednesday.  Apple touched on $700 billion valuation today making it the largest capitalization company in history.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 24, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Amazon recently released a streaming e-book and audio-book subscription service. This is another step in the book sale metamorphosis.  From independent book stores,  chain stores, super size stores, online sales, digital sales and now subscription sales;  this should be the final step in the series...... Our market structure remains  negative and holding.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 23, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The market continues to move upward in tiny steps.  Our market structure is negative and holding.  We are awaiting a stronger signal.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 20, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Sports is entertainment, it could be considered competitive entertainment.  In sports the best players rise to the top or are locked in a contract by a team to prevent other teams from having them. In sports the outcome of a game is mostly unknown.  It is new and exciting.  In any event, sports stars are normally paid based on talent, as winning brings in the money.  The recording and movie industries are different for many years they lived in a near competition free existence.  Music was heard on the radio soon after it was released, stayed on the play list for a while then moved off the air. Records stayed in the stores.  Movies had the same cycle but were only viewed in theaters.  DVD's and mp3's hurt the industry.  itunes gave it a small boost but sales are starting to fall.  Now the industries have moved into the subscription era.  Netflix, Spotify and similar services allow the viewer/listener to chose from tens of  thousands of quality selections many of these are better than the current releases.  When a buyer gets comfortable with watching or hearing quality selections when they want, they lose interest in the latest fashion.  Artists, unlike sports figures, are turned into stars by promotion.  There are a great many superb artists that can outperform the recording stars but don't get the promotion and remain unknown.  With social media these artists can perform locally and become local stars, provide better entertainment for their fans but will most likely not get the chance to get rich.  Sports, the news,  weather, and  talk shows, seem to be the only survivors keeping TV alive.  If it isn't unique you might as well see it when you have the time.  This change is here to stay and it does not bode well for new artists and the movie and recording industries.  

As for the Stock Market, the combination of low interest rates and small daily changes can keep it afloat, even though the long term fundamentals like Shiller's PE10 and Buffet's favorite Market Capital to GNP are showing scary valuations. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 19, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Slightly improved volatility over the past two days but still very low.  Over the past twenty years the median of the ten day average of the daily change was +/- 1%, over the past two weeks it is about one third of normal. This is a "small change" market and as I have been saying small daily changes equate to lack of fear and allow the markets to go higher. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 18, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Markets continue to be buoyed by lack of fear as evidenced by the low Vix and small daily changes.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 17, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Our Market Structure level continues to slip further negative.  The Japan's economic news on Sunday slowed the markets on Monday. Our Tuesday reading is very flat.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 14, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We moved fully long for Monday as the renewed "small change" nature of the market allows for more leeway in trading after a series of up-days.  Something that should not be done when there is more volatility.  Japan's economy contracted in the third quarter sending the aftermarket lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 13, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Another near identical forecast going into Friday.  No worries about deflation, yet it is deflation that is keeping interest rates down. I expect another small change day for Friday, but perhaps the small change will be negative.  New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 12, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Near identical forecast from yesterday. The markets are inching higher while in a small (daily) change mode.  Market Structure is stable and slightly negative. The market can continue to crawl higher under these conditions, but under more volatile conditions the market structure would be in a very dangerous area.   New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 11, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The markets are inching higher while in a small (daily) change mode.  Market Structure is stable and slightly negative. The market can continue to crawl higher under these conditions.   New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 10, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is  Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    We moved fully long as our Market Structure Level pulled back after a week of being unchanged.  The dollar has climbed over the past few months pushing the price of oil lower. This will hurt the sales of electric cars but help retail in general.  Overall a strong dollar is good for the local economy at the expense of the multinationals.   New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 7, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  A flat ending to a flat week for the NDX.  The market moved into a "small change" mode and our Market Structure Level remains fixed and just shy of moving positive.  It is most likely that the market will continue to slowly climb while in this state.  New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 6, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The Vix is now below 14 and the market will be moving back to its small change mode by tomorrow.  We now have enough data to obtain good results under this type of behavior.  Our Market Structure remains slightly negative and unchanged.   New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 5, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   We increased our exposure to the down side with our conservative programs still in the money market.  Our Market Structure level remains unchanged with a negative tone.  New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 4, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  There is good reason to suspect that this recent rally had more to do with the polls showing Republican gains in the elections than anything else.  That influence may have ended today as regardless of the results, it is generally sell on the news. Our Market Structure Level remains unchanged and I expect will become more negative on Wednesday.  We have held our short position but reduced our exposure.  New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  November 3, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   After seven days at partial exposure we have moved fully short with our aggressive programs.  Our Market Structure remains one step away from the transition zone and so, remains negative.  Sprint announced a 2,000 job cut as it does, like so many other large companies, trim staff to match falling revenue projections. New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 31, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.   How long can the euphoria last?  Nothing has changed.  The need for labor will continue to decline long term.  Manual labor is already being replaced in China with robots.  The larger companies will continue to show good profits by cutting costs.  Trouble is brewing. For us we have seen a string of partial shorts foiled by the euphoric market buyers.  Our programs have seen this before many times over the past 20 years. They all end the same way as the market is not a one way street.  We will continue to re-evaluate the market one day at a time and go with the long term statistically valid direction.  Our Market Structure level is now only one step away from reaching the transition zone which leads to the longer term positive area.  New Long Term forecast recently posted.   Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 30, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Topping action continues in the indexes with the NDX crossing positive and negative a number of times during the day.  We are holding our position.  New Long Term forecast posted last week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 29, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The Fed finally brought QE3 to an end.  The market hardly reacted.  Our programs are leaning lower but I am well aware that the market often moves higher the day after the Fed makes their meeting announcements.  Investors always tend to believe that the FED is doing the right thing to make the market move higher, whatever they do.  Our Market Structure level is moving higher and has entered the danger zone that occurs just prior to a positive level.  We still don't know if the level will cut through the danger zone and fly through the transition area on its way to calling another long term up-trend, or turn and move to a lower level.  The Vix closed at about 15,  in the normal range.  New Long Term forecast posted last week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 28, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  The ytd closing high for the NDX was surpassed today.  And as I wrote on Friday the 24th. It " most likely will not be clear sailing after that,  since the run up appears to be somewhat of a blow-off rather than a nice slow climb".  We remain short three of our programs.  I can't say for sure if the party is over, but our Market Structure level remains negative.  The does not seem like a good time to pump more money into the market, but rather take some off the table for a while.  New Long Term forecast posted last week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 27, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Market has become more quiet but the Vix remains slightly elevated from September.  Our Market Structure level has become less negative.    New Long Term forecast posted last week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 24, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex  NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Late run up in the NDX caused a rare change in our signal very near the close ending in mixed signals in our aggressive programs.  We will close out the opposing trades at the morning fix.  The market appears headed for a test of the prior top as the the S&P top  is 2.3% away and the NDX lags by only 1.5%.   It looks like this will happen but it most likely will not be clear sailing after that,  since the run up appears to be somewhat of a blow-off rather than a nice slow climb. The blow-off in March of 2000 took the NDX from 4130 to 4704 in eight days a gain of over 13.8%. The next 14 days it fell to 3553 a drop of 24.5%. And it kept going lower.  Today the NDX remains over 16% from that 2002 peak, and it is now 14.5 years later.  Our recent run took the NDX up 7.35% in 6 days, but with a lower VIX.    Since our Market Structure is at a negative level, it should not be able to reach the positive level (which would be a longer term all clear) without first going through another pull back.  Once we move into that dangerous area the Market Structure would either continue to the positive range or pull back for an extension of the down trend.  If the VIX  continues to drop then I would look to the up side scenario.   New Long Term forecast posted last week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 23, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Though our long only program continues to do very well, this week set us back three weeks in our aggressive programs.  A setback leads to improvements and better understanding of the many aspects of the market that sometimes take a while to show themselves. This year we focused on the small change market where small daily changes act to keep the market going higher.  This was not the case this week where the volatility was normal and the Vix has not fallen below 15.  The market remains dangerous and most likely will not fully recover in the recent future, regardless of the energy of this recent rush.  New Long Term forecast posted this week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.      

Comments:  October 22, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  Once again we are visiting the dark side with a strong negative signal and looking for the market to go lower.  The major issues of last week have not changed and the recovery bounce should be played out.  Still we never have all the pieces just enough to give us a edge for the predisposed next day's direction of the market assuming the absence of strong opposing news. New Long Term forecast posted this week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 21, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex NDX 1x fund.    On October 14 we got a bottom signal indicating that a short term bottom would most likely form the following trading day.  The prior bottom signal(s) we received were on May 15-18, 2012.  This is a short term bottom but with the Market Structure deep negative I do not believe this bounce has market the end of the down leg.  Still Tuesday did have the conviction found in an upturn.  The VIX slipped, but the recent volatility remains and the market remains tradable.   Tuesday Apple combined with China and positive home sales made for a news driven day, not nice to be on the wrong side but that is statistics.   New Long Term forecast posted this week. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 20, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   For Tuesday we are short into the eye of the Apple storm of excellent earnings.  Apple's price had been moving up in anticipation of good news and they got it.  The AAPL aftermarket jumped about 1.5% then pulled back to +0.5% as of this writing.  I don't think that AAPL can support the NDX by itself.  The VIX has fallen under 20 but still reflects a normal amount of volatility which is very helpful to us. I expect some weakness here and then again later in the week.  New Long Term forecast posted yesterday. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 17, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.     The indexes closed lower for another week.  Our Market Structure level became more negative and that indicates the downturn will last longer, it also means that the most destructive part of the downturn will be pushed further into the future and most likely will not occur this coming week.  For Monday we see an extension of Friday's rally.  Early indications for later in the week are for lower prices. The VIX remains in the normal area for the VIX over the past 20 years, but higher than we have seen over the past few years.  This helps us read the market direction, increases the number of days we are in the market and generally increases the size of our returns.  Of course we realize that we are dealing with statistical averages and over any segment of time we will have to take some lumps.  Still it is nice to see that the opportunity is here and I expect that the work put into the program over the past dozen years will pay off.  New Long Term forecast just posted. Re-read our prior long term post to check on how well that worked out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 16, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The past few days the markets have made strong internal adjustments (or recoveries)  off their highs and lows, in a sense taking the energy away from any rebound the following day.  We like the new volatility and are holding our money market position until we get a clear signal.  That should not take too long under these conditions.  Netflix, as we mentioned in yesterday's post, did a partial recovery from the over-reaction of the after market traders.  The company has kept prices low enough to hamper competition and rapidly grow.  The price of their service is so low compared to the cable companies rates that they could easily double or maybe even triple prices if they wanted to. Even a slow increase could propel their earnings higher for years.  Netflix is also a good example of why I trade the indexes, a 26% drop in one day is more excitement than I want.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 15, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Our expectations for a strong rally on Thursday faded when the market staged a strong, though partial, recovery from Wednesday's deep drop.  So we moved fully into the money market.   Not much has changed from our view point so this down beat market is expected to continue, though not every day.   After the market closed NFLX disappointed on new subscribers and the after hours gang reduced its market value by 26%.  The after hours traders do tend to get over emotional but the damage will, I expect, still be significant and psychologically  impact the overall market's direction.  The S&P is now up less than 1% for the year to date.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 14, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Short:50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long:  50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   A disappointing day where we saw the NDX give up a 1.35% gain to close up only a smidgen.  We now have conflicting signals with our conservative programs aimed up and our aggressive programs aimed down.  All programs have reduced exposure.  The programs should realign themselves later in the week and most likely to the upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 13, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.     Volatility continues to increase.  The past few days have hurt the indexes with the S&P now up only 1.4% ytd and the NDX up 6%.  Our Market Structure remains negative and has moved closer to the most dangerous levels.  I expect to see those levels hit later this month.   With the market oversold there is a good chance for a  partial market recovery this week, hopefully starting on Tuesday and then another market plunge next week, but we will still position ourselves one day at a time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 10, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   The list of negatives, like German deflation, Ebola and falling oil prices is taking its toll on the market.   Bad week for the markets, good week for us.  With the volatility improving the market has moved back to more normal behavior.  Our program should continue to benefit from these conditions.  Our Market Structure remains negative and during normal markets that means the market goes lower, though as I have previously mentioned it is not in worst area...yet.  It needs to pass through a really bad area to get better and with the new increase in volatility it could be painful to the buy and hold group. Good chance the market will exhibit some sort of short term rebound this coming week.  We will do our best to help you step through the mine field.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 9, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Another strong down day took out the market's gain for the week and more important raised the VIX to 18.59.  The VIX or volatility index measures the option premium level and is a very good measure of the level of fear in the markets.  The median level of VIX from the start of 1993 is 18.88 so we can consider ourselves centered under normal market conditions. This is a very good thing because it better reflects the emotional response of traders and investors to daily changes in the markets.  Our signals give the predisposed next day's direction of the market in the absence of strong news.  As the volatility increases the strength of the predisposed direction increases, making the signal direction  more likely to overrun minor news.  The signals also come more frequently, making for a very nice combination.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 8, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The NDX changed direction from loss to gain six times prior to the Fed minutes.  That made sense, since we had mixed signals.  Then it exploded to the upside when the Fed remained unmoved.  The size of the move was outside the expected range.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 7, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our aggressive programs scored on Tuesday's drop, but Wednesday will not be so easy as we have opposing signals.  We have reduced our downside exposure by half and taken a partial long position in our long-only program.  Not much has changed overall.  Our Market Structure remains negative but not in a very dangerous zone.  That will most likely come later.  Though the bulk of the daily changes fall in the normal range, I would describe the market as nearly-normal providing the market with some opportunity to improve.  However if the daily changes increase in size the market would then move into a more dangerous zone on its road to reach the positive structure level. This would then cause much more damage.  But so far no real damage to the NDX.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 6, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short:100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   The small pull back on Monday could be the start of a larger pullback on Tuesday.  We have moved our aggressive programs to fully short.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 3, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.     On Friday the Vix fell significantly, but the NDX gained over 1%.  The market remains in a more normal area from a volatility stand point.  Although the Market Structure remains negative the level is not in a very dangerous area and the anticipatory trend is positive.  Our probabilities are also  positive for Monday.  The down side is that the market is now short term over bought by some measures.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 2, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  The NDX fell 1.25% early on, then recovered to just positive of flat.  We have moved out of the markets for Friday.  Good to see that the the markets are exhibiting more normal behavior and although Thursday's market closed with little change, the daily range was large.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  October 1, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.     The increase in volatility improves forecast reliability, especially regarding the short positions as was seen Wednesday.   We are now fully long for Thursday.  It should be difficult for the market to quickly make a new top if the volatility continues.  Still there will be some strong individual up- days, and the market volatility level is still on the low side long term.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 30, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Flat day for the NDX  as the market moves into a mildly negative position.  We have moved partially short in our aggressive programs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 29, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The market recovered from a sharp early morning drop then closed only a little soft.  Looks like the bulls are ready to jump in on significant weakness.  We have a mild "long" signal and have moved partially long. The weakness I was expecting mid week may be slightly delayed.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 26, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  Some volatility kicked in last week.  For Monday we are looking at a slightly positive bias.  I still expect more deterioration by mid week.  Overall the Market Structure is negative, but not yet in a critical area.  The increase in volatility has moved the market out of the small (daily) change mode (where the market direction is very positive) and into the normal market area.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 25, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We are holding our position.  The increased volatility should be very good for us long term and we are no longer in a small (daily) change market.  Our Market Structure remains negative under these conditions we should see more properly behaved short signals.  Unless the market reverts to small daily changes  I expect more deterioration by the middle of next week.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 24, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We remain in a fully long position for Thursday,  with somewhat less enthusiasm as the top side looks limited.  Today's NDX gain was the first daily change over 1% since August 12th.  We are still in a small change environment which is good for the continuation of the rally, but the market is also under a negative Market Structure which should limit the size of gains and I expect would result in a rolling top.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 23, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We have an enthusiastic long for Wednesday within the overall gloom of a negative Market Structure and topping formation.  The aftermarket is down about -.25% at this time.  Some minor news but mostly a tired market.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 22, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% Money market.  If you read my comments over the past few days you will see that a stall or pull back was expected here.  Monday's drop was a little more than expected but held at less than one percent and the small daily moves continue.  We have moved fully into the money market for Tuesday as the market bobs about a top. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 19, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Strong week for us, especially for our long-only program which spent Monday in the money market and was leveraged long the rest of the week in the NDX.  We moved our more conservative programs back to the money market and reduced our long exposure in our aggressive programs.  The market closed only slightly lower as the early Scotland and Alibaba rally faded.  The small daily moves should prevent much downside as the market moves in a topping formation.  We should have a few "long" positions during this process.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 18, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   The market should run out of steam by the close on Friday.  Our Market Structure is very negative and as it climbs back to the zero level  the market should find it difficult to have enough resources to continue higher.  The small daily changes are in the market's favor and should (if they continue to remain small) buffer any downside.  We remain fully long looking for one more day of upside.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 17, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We are holding our fully long position as our Market Structure moves deeper into the negative zone. There should be at best one to two days more upside in this market then flat (or lower if the daily changes grow in size).  Fed  did as expected...no change.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 16, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We are holding our fully long position.  With good signal strength and continued small daily changes the markets remain sound for a little longer.  Our Market Structure is very negative but without seeing larger daily changes all I would expect is a flattening when the short term signals turn negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 15, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   The Tech sector took a big hit on Monday while the Dow climbed and S&P only paused.  I am looking for a rebound as all our programs are aligned to the up side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 12, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Wth the Fed, Scotland, Isis and Russia in the news we are finally seeing some market directional confusion.  The daily moves have remained small and that trend has not changed, though the fall usually brings with it some excitement.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 11, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Sorry, I missed a posting yesterday. (see below)  This seems to be a no-fear market.  It is reflected in the small daily changes. There are a few things cooking, the XOI (oil and gas) index is off 6% from its June top and the RUT (reflecting a broad base of smaller stocks) is off 3% from its March top.  Our Market Structure remains negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 10, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Apple's l3% gain gave the NDX back its Tuesday loss.  We have moved fully long in our aggressive programs as our main program kicked in, but our conservative programs remain in the money market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 9, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Apple's launch drove the markets for awhile on Tuesday, but the enthusiasm could not hold and the techs fell. Uber seems to have excellent financial management.  They priced the rides high to allow the drivers to make some money in an economy that needs jobs.  The drivers told their friends and many more signed up. Uber then cut prices to get more clients to buy rides, optimizing the equation "drivers * return per driver".  Now they are bringing in 50,000 new drivers per month.  Uber does have about the worst web site I have ever seen so you do have to wonder.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 8, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Holding long in our aggressive programs. Again signal is only slightly positive.  Our Market Structure remains negative. Market continues to behave under small daily change conditions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 5, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  We moved back to going long in our aggressive programs.  Signal only slightly positive.  Our Market Structure remains negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 4, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is 100% Money market.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  A shift in our signals moved our more conservative programs long and our aggressive programs to the money market for Friday.  I have spent many hours going over our existing programs to find a more comprehensive interpretation where we could increase our return without increasing our draw-downs or the complexity of the existing programs.  The simpler the solution the less it is curve-fit and the more reliable the future return.  I prefer to chose only those inputs that stay reliable over very long time frames rather than constantly vary parameters to match recent market activity. We look for stability and consistency  over many years to match the flexibility of the daily market direction.  In this regard I was able to improve on our long term results through finding signals for many of our "out" or "money market" days. We find we have more "out" days in dull markets and going forward we will be able to trade these dull days more often.....On another topic, Google glass.  Expect to see police departments in may cities adopt the glasses as developers bring law enforcement specific programming to the eyewear.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 3, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our web site was attacked over the weekend but we fixed the problems and bolstered our pass words. Our office computers and client data were never hacked and remained secure.  Wednesday's drop in the NDX was probably not enough to kick the Index off its bar crawl climb and we are holding our position. The signal is not strong, as markets that creep along do not provide the emotional content that give us strong "tells", still there should be no problem with us creeping along too until the volatility returns.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  September 2, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  More of the same as the NDX has now gone up 13 of the last 14 days.  With an average gain of only 1/4% per day this stealth rise continues and can continue.  Watch for more volatile days to end the trend.  We remain partially long.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 29, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The continued little daily market changes has caused us to rely more on our secondary program that can respond to lesser inputs and we are holding on to our partial longs.  The outside news has not created much concern and the last days of summer vacation is already here.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 28, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  After eleven up days in a row the NDX had a small pull back.  We are holding our reduced-exposure positions.  A handful of tech's reported good earnings after the close sending the NDX higher in early trading.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 27, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  One more slightly long day for the NDX.  We moved back to slightly positive in our aggressive accounts.  With "real" (taking our Obama care and weather related utility costs) GDP is flat  to shrinking in the US and Europe is the same.  Until there is enough money in the pockets of the underclass the economy will continue flat with cost cutting by business keeping a lid on job growth.   The simple answer is to temporarily  raise the starting level for FICA and taking the limit off the top level.  Not a popular option among those making the laws, but one that would kick the local economy back on track and benefit all long term. Once the economy grows the old levels could be put back in place.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 26, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Another small market gain making ten in a row for the NDX.  I have seen up to 14 in a row over the past 20 years.  This has been a non volatile run and the markets remain calm and not overbought our criteria.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 25, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The market's small daily changes continue to numb any fear as the markets move higher. Our sub program has kicked in to the upside and we took a small "long" position in our aggressive programs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 22, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Retirement program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.   The NDX continues to float slightly higher with small changes.  Slight deterioration in other markets. Conditions remain pretty much the same.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 21, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Retirement program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x Fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.   The market continues to float slightly higher with small changes.  Conditions remain the same.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 20, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Flat day for the NDX and our signal turned "short".  The NDX has gained 6 days in a row and because the gains are small the market can continue higher.  Markets do pull back and our signal is expecting that.  Outside news is not pressing in either direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 19, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.   Expecting a pause or pull back for Wednesday.  We are holding our money market position.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments: August 18, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.   Monday's upside brought the NDX back to where it was fourteen years ago, a long time to wait to  break even.  The Market Structure remains negative, but has worked its way higher now near the transition  zone.  Daily changes remain small and are providing lift to the market, but there are enough opposing forces to move us to the sidelines.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 17, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 50% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure remains negative along with a negative signal and negative anticipatory trend for Monday.  The small (daily) changes which support a continuation to the upside overran our signal on Friday.  We reduced our exposure to the downside and will have to see if this small change market carry over another day.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 14, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure remains negative along with a negative signal and negative anticipatory trend for Friday.  The market has made strong gains this week as it fought though rather dull to negative news and should be ready to pause.  Supporting the upside is the same small (daily) change market that has propped this market up for most of the year.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.     

Comments:  August 13, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 19% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 25% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Relatively strong market especially in light of some overall negative news.  Japan GDP down -6.8% in second quarter. US retail sales flat in July.  Oil prices hit 9 month low even with the Ukraine and Gaza.  Does the word deflation come to mind?  We see some shrinking possibility for this rally to carry another day so once again we cut our exposure in half remaining partially long.  Our Market Structure remains short.  Anticipatory trend is also short.  The VIX is low and daily changes have not yet caused alarm so there remains some potential for positive carryover into Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 12, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Neutral close in the markets and we continue to deal within a small (daily) change environment.  We have held our small positive positions over another day.  This could turn ugly quickly.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 11, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our main program tells us to move to the sidelines and out sub program tells us there could be a little more upside left for Tuesday.  We have greatly reduced our exposure.  Ukraine and Gaza worries seem to be subsiding, the rush of earnings has slowed down and the Vix has pulled back off recent highs.  Somewhat negative mentality should continue to erode the market prices over the next few weeks, but the continuation of small daily changes should keep any decline orderly.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 8, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our Market Structure Level has reached bottom.  As with every step lower there should be some immediate upside.   Followed this,  I expect to see sideways to lower action over the next few weeks.  It is interesting to me that the level is so low, as the last case was in November of 2003, a period of time when the market had already moved well off its lows. The Market Structure Level came close to this level in 2007 and 2008 but did not reach it. The extreme level itself does not mean the market is about to fall apart, only that a flat to downward market should be anticipated over the near term measured in weeks.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 7, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market is weak but holding and we moved partially long for Friday.  Our Market Structure moved further into the negative zone indicating to me that there is more downside to come.  Fridays and Mondays have been the weakest days over the past 20 years.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: August 6, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   All programs are 100% money market.  From today's unchanged close it would seem that the market is in balance.  But it looks like there are strong forces aligned in both directions.  It is rare that we get opposing signals (program positions taken opposite each other). This is the case for Thursday and I decided to move all programs to the money market.  Russia could be having a strong influence, it could carryover from the 4% jump in GDP or even the Ebola scare.  I am willing to wait a day to see how it plays out.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 5, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have moved fully long for Wednesday, our probabilities show potential for good upside.  Once again our Market Structure moved more negative. The daily moves are increasing in size as well as the Vix, but the level still seem shy of major worry for the buy and hold crowd. If this action continues we will begin to see even larger moves as it feeds upon itself, bringing traders back into the markets and causing longer term holders to lighten their positions.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 4, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Probabilities are reduced but remain positive and we have trimmed our exposure in our aggressive programs.  Our Market Structure level became more negative so we remain cautious and aware that more sharp drops are probable. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  August 1, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have moved fully long for Monday.  Probabilities and expected amplitudes are very positive.  Our two more conservative programs gained ground this past week. The market is now operating in an environment depicting the late stages of a bull market.  Good news is considered bad because that news might cause the Fed to raise interest rates (they probably won't since they are still more worried about deflation than inflation).  And IPOs are being pushed on the market, hoping to hit before it all falls apart.  This happened in 2000 and 2007.  One positive is daily market changes are still small.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 31, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex InverseNDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Sharp drop on Thursday took out July gains.  Our Market Structure level remains negative. With a negative Market Structure,  large daily moves like Thursday's could very well start a sizeable correction. The Vix was kicked up to near 17, a more reasonable level for a trading market.  The large jump in GDP on Wednesday must have some traders expecting the Fed to raise rates soon, but it won't happen, as interest rates are reflecting  deflationary economic conditions. (See our T-Index)     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 30, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Moderate gain for the NDX on Wednesday.  We reduced our exposure on our aggressive programs and moved to the money market on the more conservative programs. Market movements remain small.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 29, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market continues to behave in a very slow and stable manner and we have moved modestly long for Wednesday.  Although our long term signal reflects negative conditions  the market should continue to climb higher as long as the daily movements remain small.  Small movements calm markets.  Twitter jumped 30% in the aftermarket after reporting unexpected positive earnings. This should help kick up the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 28, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  An early market loss was reversed as the market regained its composure and closed slightly positive.  Thus another nearly unchanged day to add to the small change days we have seen for most of this year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 25, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Market Structure remains negative and our overall signal is mildly negative also.  Sad news from Oceanstone mutual fund, their portfolio manager James J. Wang has passed away.  He was far and away the best manager among all mutual funds since the Oceanstones inception in 2006 with spectacular real returns while steering their company through 2008 with little damage.  The fund has closed.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 24, 2014

Current position for Friday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Thursday's no action day should help lull the market participants to sleep and extend the rally. Our Market Structure is climbing but remains negative.  The real estate news was not good but that does not mean a down turn in that market.  Real Estate turns slowly and most likely the gains will flatten more inline with the low interest rate levels and we will see slow growth and little help to our economy. We are in a deflationary mode as we can see from out T-Index.  Small pockets of life among the top high tech issues, Apple, Facebook, Netflix, Google and Amazon for example, and little else to call a recovery. There are some cracks even in tech, as Amazon missed on earnings today and the stock lost over 10% in the aftermarket.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 23, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.   Facebook had excellent earnings and could hold the techs up on Thursday. Twitter climbed on the FB news in the aftermarket.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 22, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our signals switched to long and now all our programs are fully long.  AAPL beat earnings estimates but slipped on revenue which is what we continue to see from corporate America as companies trim labor and raise productivity to beat falling sales figures.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 21, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Market Structure remains negative along with a negative signal for Tuesday.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 18, 2014

Current position for Monday:   All programs are 100% money market.  The downing of the Malaysian aircraft sent a ripple through the markets that caused us problems in our aggressive programs on Thursday and Friday.  Our main signal turned neutral for Monday and we moved to the sidelines.  The markets should be back to normal by then.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 17, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  When Microsoft cuts 18,000 jobs that means Microsoft saves about $1 Billion in salaries per year.  It also means that the US economy loses about $1 Billion a year in sales and investment. Once again corporate America gains at the expense of the working man. But that is "big" business.  A passenger  jet with 295 people on board was destroyed over the Ukraine.  Possibly shot down it kicked the stock market into high gear on the down side.  Even if this was an accident and not a target, the market has moved into a much worse position. With the absolute value daily changes climbing and our Market Structure deep in the negative area the outlook now favors more down side.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 16, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 40% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We stayed long but reduced our exposure going into Thursday. Our Market Structure level continued to fall and as long as it is falling the markets should climb when is stops falling we should be in for a pull back.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 15, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Once again fully long.  The market has gained back some of its volatility and we are getting our signals.  Probabilities look strong for the upside on Wednesday, but amplitudes are expected to remain on the stunted side. Our Market Structure slipped another step lower so any large shock to the market could start an overall decline. But for now we are looking to the upside.  Almost like someone read my GoPro comments yesterday since today the stock went up 13%. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 14, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  The markets continued their Friday upward move over into Monday.  Our signal turned neutral and we moved our accounts fully into the money market.  Our Market Structure became more negative.  If the daily moves become larger this market should start to roll over, but so far the moves are small and the market is moving higher.  GoPro got some negative words from Barrons saying that cell phones have taken a big chunk out of stand alone camera sales, and GoPro is vulnerable.  GoPro may be vulnerable to changing markets, but cell phone cameras will not replace the Go Pro camera.  Specialty cameras are showing up in different areas.  New automobiles have back up cameras and dual (3d) forward looking cameras for safety systems.  Small toy quad-copters are outfitted with GoPro type aerial cameras. Yes wearable cameras on your head is most likely a fad, but the non phone cameras is still an expanding market. [I do not own any shares of GoPro.]  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 13, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We moved fully long at Friday's close.  All positions were triggered by our regular program which had kicked back in last week after about a month of very low volatility market movements.  Our Market Structure remains negative, but that does not mean the upside should be ignored, during 2008 we made just about as much on the up-side as on the down-side so even in extremely bad market conditions there is money to be made on the upside, and under those conditions the volatility is usually high making it less difficult.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 10, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  After a long pause we have a strong signal from our normal program and have gone fully short.  This is now in line with our negative Market Structure. We are still in a low volatility market and that tends to dampen the market movements and provide us with fewer strong trades. On Thursday the market plunged at the open based on problems with the Portuguese banking system, the NDX fully recovered but could not hold into the close, leaving us with one more small change day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 9, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We remain partially long.  Our Market Structure is negative and climbing.  I expect the market to continue to show gains as long as the daily changes remain small.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 8, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our low volatility sub-program has kicked in and we have moved partially long.  Our Market Structure is holding its negative level, but we will need to see larger daily market movement, positive or negative to call a real top.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 7, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  I am continuing my work on small change type days and have expanded it to include low interest rate time frames.  The market behavior is rather interesting under these conditions and I shall elaborate as I make more progress.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 3, 2014

Current position for Monday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Strong job numbers pushed the market higher. The 90 day T bill rate fell closer to zero. Our Market Structure held it's negative level and the VIX is sitting in the bottom 1% of all VIX readings for the past 21+ years.  The drop in T-bill rates indicates that there is a strong flow of cash into those bills, waiting for a reason to take more substantial action but not finding one.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: July 2, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Early close market day on Thursday.  Our Market Structure level has plunged over the the past few days indicating that a pull back is imminent.  Still we need to consider the very small daily changes that predominate the trading, since small changes are positive. Unless I see larger changes I would expect more of a pause and less of a decline.     Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  July 1, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund. Tuesday the NDX gained over 1% and event we have not seen in the past 5 weeks. Our Market Structure became more negative, a longer term indication of trouble.  The Financial Times reported that the top 2000 companies by expenditures in 2013 are expected to reduce those expenditures by 1/2% in real terms this year.  Growth in earnings can come from expansion in sales or cutbacks in costs. With little sales growth these, the largest companies are smartly cutting back on expenditures.  Individuals are continuing to cut back so now we see both sides of the economy moving on a deflationary path.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 30, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level dropped further into negative territory on Monday extending the cloud we find hovering over the markets.  The Financial Times reported a drop in company buy backs from $61.7Bn last June to $22.2 Bn this June.  Companies buy back shares when either they believe their company's stock is cheap, and/or they can't find a better investment in their own expansion.  With shrinking top line we know they are not pushing to expand so cutting back on buy-backs can only mean that they feel that their stock is no longer cheap.  With the fourth of July this week we may find a bit of pre holiday tendency to gain helping the slow upward climb.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 27, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   The Market Structure remains negative, but only one step from positive so it could change at any time.  The fact that it is negative suggests that there are some problems in the economy and a deterioration in the market could happen quickly.  For now the small daily changes are holding the market above water and keeping it pointed higher. We are using our low volatility program for our signals under these low volatility conditions when our normal program goes to the money market.  Under normal volatility conditions we tend to be in the money market about a third of the time, but under low volatility conditions we are in the money market about 55% of the time.  The new sub program will allow us to comfortably trade more often during these dull times. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 26, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  All other programs are in the money market.  The market closed flat and left most indicators unchanged from yesterday.  Our low volatility program remains positive but only mildly so.  We remain long in only our most aggressive program. The drop in the GDP could start the markets moving lower very soon, but the small daily changes remain a positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 25, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I have implemented the low volatility sub-program for near dead market situations.  This program only functions when the normal programs are in the money market and then only when the daily changes are very much below normal.  Also I am not using leverage. I expect that this will help us participate in the small market movements without that much exposure to sudden unexpected events. This is also a stable program that is unaffected by up-to-the-minute news or late in-the-day market changes.  Our Market Structure level has risen to one step below going positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 24, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Early market gains on good economic news were erased later in the day, with the markets ending lower.  This is the reverse of the bull market scenario we have become accustomed to. With our longer term Market Structure negative there will probably not be very much more upside, but with the small daily changes there will also be very little down side so the slight uphill market creep will most likely continue.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 23, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  The markets fluttered about the zero point and closed with little change.  I am making good progress on a low volatility solution for this kind of market, but with hardly any market change even being 100% correct does not get you much.  The market will get more volatile, but we can't say when.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 20, 2014

Current position for Monday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Dull. Only our retirement program showed any change +.1% for the week all else was flat. Our Market Structure level remains negative and unchanged. The small daily change environment is keeping the market from a real pull back. It appears that no one is worried and no one is taking excessive risks. We see the market as leaning only slightly to the upside for Monday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 19, 2014

Current position for Friday:   All programs are 100% money market.  After the bell Oracle missed on earnings and revenue. It dropped almost 7% in the aftermarket sending the NDX lower.  Our Market structure remains negative and unchanged. Long term, as companies miss they will cut jobs and focus on increasing automation.  Earnings may continue to grow but sales will decline in that type of environment. This is not a good thing overall. Even China is cutting workers due to automation.  This approach may be China's undoing.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 18, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  The Fed will remain on course and that boosted the markets.  Our Market Structure Level became less negative a short term minus and longer term plus.  I expect a pause or minor pullback on Thursday, but we continue in this slow moving, small daily change market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 17, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level became more negative a short term plus and longer term minus.  The market itself managed only a slight gain. We have been in the money market the past 7 days and the NDX has remained basically flat and down little more than a tenth percent.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 16, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  The market recovered from an early drop. Our Market Structure Level remains unchanged and negative.  The VIX climbed slightly against a small market gain, this tends to be a negative indication for the following day.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 14, 2014

Current position for Monday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level remains unchanged and negative. Problems in the oil rich Middle East are having only a tiny effect on the market. The market ran more flat then much lower for the week and the VIX only took a small step higher. This could however lead to more down side soon.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 12, 2014

Current position for Friday:   All programs are 100% money market.  We spent the week in the money market.  Our Market Structure Level is unchanged and negative.  Thursday's drop was long overdue and it managed to push the VIX back over 12. This is still a fearless market and we would prefer to see the VIX well over 14 and closer to its median of about 19.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 11, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level remained level and negative on Wednesday.  The market remains sluggish. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 10, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level stepped lower on Tuesday.  This is positive for the next day and negative longer term.  Our Signal remains flat.  Because of the low vix I have shifted my attention to studying ways to profit from these small change days.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 9, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Another small change day.  Flat signal as our market structure remains slightly negative.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 7, 2014

Current position for Monday:   All programs are 100% money market.  We have a conflicting market condition where our Market Structure level is negative reflecting longer term negative conditions coinciding with an exceptionally low Vix.  With a long term (about 21 years) median VIX of about 19.3 the market has become very quiet at 10.73. "Small change" markets are generally positive and we now have a condition where the positive low VIX market has overridden the negative impact of a negative Market Structure.  This seems to be the case but even though we are using over 20 years of data this situation has not presented itself enough to draw a strong conclusion as it happens less than 1.5% of the time.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 5, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse  NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.  The ECB is charging negative rates.  This means if banks deposit money with them they get a negative return. ie lose money. This also means that the economy is doing so bad in Europe that there are very few places to earn a safe significant return.  Our T-Index as remained fixed in a deflationary mode since September of 2008. So deflation is not just a European problem.  Verizon vs Netflix on internet speed.  Netflix may have more brain power, but Verizon has the bucks with about 8 times the NFLX capitalization.  Google owns YouTube, and make their living off of search ads so they also have an interest in net neutrality.  NFLX + GOOG match VZ in size and would seem unstoppable in brainpower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 4, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse  NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.   Another early drop in the NDX, recovered, and this time turned positive. Seems like some traders are having fun.  Our Market Structure remains slightly negative and holding.  We have a combination of small market changes and little important news.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: June 3, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  We have a very dead  market.  The NDX has not closed more than +/-0.11% each of the past 4 days and Tuesday's markets recovered from yet another early drop. Our Market Structure Level is now just a step away from the transition area where it is just a hop back to the positive range.  Small price movements lead to calm, up trending markets.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  June 2, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.  We have both longer term and short term negative signals for Tuesday.  Like Friday the market recovered from an early drop.  The next drop should continue lower.  Our Probability table looks very negative.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 30, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Retirement program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x NDX. All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure is negative and flat. The market itself is doing better than expected and most likely the lack of fear reflected by the low VIX is keeping money flowing into and not out of the market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 29, 2014**late post

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money Market.   We have switched to the short side for Friday. Our Market Structure is negative but climbing.  Vix still exceptionally low below 12.  Google once again showing great vision with their new driverless cars.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 28, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure level remained flat and negative. We have a small positive signal for our aggress programs for Thursday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 27, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  Investors did see the blue skies on Tuesday with a 1.25% gain for the NDX it does appear that the NDX will make new closing highs over the next few days since it is little more than four points away while it is four tenths away from the intra-day high of March.  My Market Structure work has remained negative since first going negative a few weeks ago in April and the VIX remains under 12.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 25, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:   All programs are 100% money market.  The Vix continues to fall, now under 11.5 we may see a single digit Vix.  Investors seem to see nothing but blue skies ahead.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 22, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Retirement program Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX. All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure climbed again getting closer to the transition zone.  The NDX is still 2% away from its 2014 high and I would expect that if the high was going to be reached the Market Structure would turn positive first.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 21 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The markets helped our conservative programs on Wednesday.  Market Structure Level moved higher and we moved all programs into the money market.  The first set of troops were sent to Nigeria.  Most likely more to go.  Vix slipped below 12 making our job more difficult as it means a greater emphasis on news and less on a build up of optimism or pessimism. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 20, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level fell on Tuesday lengthening the duration of gloom.   The S&P and NYSE continue in a rising path while the NDX appears to be making  the last shoulder of a head and shoulder pattern.  Our Market Structure reflects the NDX and most other indexes generally follow along.  This time we have some major indexes sluggishly pushing for new highs with the RUT and NDX falling back.  The continued low volatility could extend this nonsense.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 19, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money Market.   We have taken a more aggressive negative position for Tuesday.  The market performed well on Monday continuing Friday's direction. Our signal, the probabilities and the Market Structure are all negative.  Unless there are more positive earnings on Tuesday expect the markets to turn lower.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 16, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Late in the day the markets recovered from an early drop.  We don't have a strong indication for Monday. Negative Market structure leaves us with a slight edge to the down side.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 15, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money Market.   Tough call at the close as our market signal shifted between "short" and "money market".  On the positive side we have already had three down days in a row in the NDX. On the negative side our Market Structure is negative, most of our components are negative and our signal finally closed negative.  No need to pay attention to inflation talk as our T-Index continues to signal deflation, inflation will not be a problem until we have full employment.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 14, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure Level became more negative.  This type of behavior extends the duration of the longer term negative view, but is positive for the next trading day.  We have taken a small long position in our aggressive programs.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 13, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Tomorrow will be our fourth day in the money market.  I don't being out of the market, but discipline is what it takes to make money over the long term.  Once again the Market Structure dropped, moving further into the negative zone.  The VIX remains below 13 reflecting a dull market.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 12, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Strong move for the NDX, but I don't believe it will start a new leg higher.  Our short and long term indicators focus on the NDX and the other indexes generally follow the same path. This time the Dow and S&P are leading the markets higher.  I am still not convinced about the NDX truly following. Our Market Structure remains negative and I expect more weakness to come.  The VIX has fallen below 13 as there is little fear in the markets.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 11, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level climbed towards the "less negative" area of the negative zone. Now it is within range of climbing back up to the transition zone. Mixed signals for Monday. Monday  markets generally follows Friday lead, but with the Market Structure Level climbing it seems like a toss up.  The aftermarket has moved to the long side in early Sunday trading.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 8, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX opened lower, recovered for a 1% gain then lost ground and closed down. Its third lower close in three days.  A string of three losses usually is a good place to get back in on the long side and our probabilities are slightly positive.  Our Market Structure became less negative which usually means the next day's market will have some trouble. We are waiting for a better place to enter in either direction.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 7, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.   Our Market Structure Level became more negative.  This type of behavior extends the duration of the longer term negative view, but is positive for the next trading day.  Almost all the flyers that I mentioned yesterday had over a 1% loss on Wednesday, but that was a good recovery from an early-in-the-day beating.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 6, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market repeated Monday's drop, and this time, did not recover.  Our Market Structure remains negative and holding.  A quick peak at some of the flyers for the day finds TWTR down over 17%, YELP down over 13%, Z, LNKD and NFLX down over 5%, FB, TSLR and AMZN down over 4%. Back on September 5th when LNKD issued a secondary we warned that the stock was over priced at 248.35 compared to FB at 42.66 now it is 142.33 to 58.53.  I don't generally speak of individual stocks but that one was blatant.  With our Structure negative we remain overall bearish.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 5, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market fell hard early in the day then staged a good recovery.  We remain on the sidelines.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: May 2, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX gained over 1.5% this past week but fell shy of the loss of last Friday. The Vix continues to grind lower moving below 13 making for a drifting market, more easily battered by news.  More workers leaving the work force making the unemployment figures look better than they are.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  May 1, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We have a weak "long" signal for Friday.  On Thursday most of the indexes closed lower, but the NDX picked up about a third of a percent.  The NDX can continue to climb as long as the daily change remains small.  Our Market Structure remains negative. I expect that the market will pull back by Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 30, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Other programs 100% Money market.  We have a weak "long" signal.  While our Market Structure level is negative and falling.  Fed will continue to trim the bond buying as expected.  The Financial Times reported that China is expected to overtake the US as the world's biggest economy this year instead of the projected 2019.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 29, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Retirement program is Short 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market structure remains negative but the level is climbing.  Two days of gains should be enough for this market with a negative structure.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 28, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The market moved above and below Monday's close a couple of times with most indexes ending higher. Our signal remains neutral and our Market Structure level remains unchanged from it's negative position of Friday.  Money flow leans to the negative side this week, caution going forward.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 25, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX ended the week where it started. All of our programs did well.  Our Hot Money program spent only three days in the market and only one day leveraged (at 2x) and returned over 5.5% for the week.  That is how it is supposed to work. Overall less exposure and more return.  Though you can't see it by watching the Vix the daily volatility (absolute change) had increased by over 50% this past month compared to the earlier days in January ~ March.  The Vix showed less than a 5% change over the same time periods.  The increased volatility is very helpful to us in reading the following days direction.  This was also a significant week for our Market Structure as it turned negative after being a steady positive for over two and a half years.  The Market Structure Level climbed Friday, but remains in the center of the negative area.  I see the market as neutral to negative on Monday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 24, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money Market.   Apple accounted for just about all of the gain in the NDX on Thursday, and after the close Amazon reported better than expected revenue.   Though that may sway some investors to the plus side, Amazon does not have anywhere near the impact of Apple on the NDX.  Our Market Structure held steady and negative as our signal moved to the "short" side for Friday.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 23, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   All other programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level continues to fall, and we are now in the lower depths of the negative area. Since this is the first move into the negative zone in many months I expect this negative excursion will be somewhat brief. I also expect that we will have other plunges into the dark side during 2014.  We have a neutral to slightly positive signal for Thursday.  Apple, however,  had great earnings after the bell and should drive the indexes higher for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 22, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse NDX 1x fund.   The Market Structure Level continues to fall and our signal has now turned "short".  The NDX gained 6 days in a row, climbing about 4% and it remains about 4% from its recent 2014 high.  I expect this small top to be put in the 22nd or 23rd.  When the Market Structure declines from the top of the positive area we see the best stock market gains, when it climbs from the bottom of the negative area expect to see the greatest stock market declines.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 21, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Our Market Structure is now in the negative range.  It may be confusing to some of our readers as to why we have gone "long" when our Structure reading turned negative.  This is because while the Structure Level indicates the longer term direction our daily signal is what we use for our daily trades and that signal is "long".  The longer term direction just indicates what the trend will be, and whether there will be more 'long" or "short" days ahead.  Under this now existing negative condition I expect to see us going "short" more often but we will still have some "long" days.  I don't expect to see any new highs for the year and do expect to see new lows reached over the next few weeks.  When the Market Structure Level becomes positive we will adjust our expectations.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 17, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The markets will be closed Friday for Good Friday. Our ALERT continues with our Market Structure Level slipping further, and now at the bottom of the transition zone.  I expect the Level to cross into the negative area the beginning of he week and a number of significant negative days to follow soon after.  From here the percentage of down days should increase and the market should get more volatile, increased volatility is good for our program as it makes the market easier to read, makes the underlying price movement more pronounced and makes the market less likely to be blown about by every bit of minor news.  Do not expect any new market highs until the Structure Level returns to the positive area. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 16, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  Retirement program, Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  ALERT!!  Our Market Structure Level fell out of the positive area and deep into the transition zone.  The Level has been solidly positive since October 2011.  The expectation is the Level will turn negative over the next few days. This should mean an overall more negative tone to the markets going forward.  These periods have ranged from little more than a week to about 11 months. 

Our signal is neutral to positive but after the close Google posted earnings and revenue that fell short of estimates.  In addition the NDX and DJIA closed on their highs a sign of excessive enthusiasm.  At the time of this writing GOOG was off about 2.5% following a gain on the day of 3.75% so there is no panic.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 15, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Big swings in the market on Tuesday.  Could have been a leak in the INTC earnings as markets continued higher following Intel after the close.  Strong aftermarket should carry the markets higher on Wednesday.  Our Market Structure Level has worked its way down near the bottom of the positive range and should start to climb back up making it harder for the market to climb during the ascent. I expect it to remain in the positive area.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 14, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our signals turned from Neutral to Short in the last few minutes of trading.  Not a tradable situation and thankfully not one that happens very often.  The markets are probably not totally out of the woods yet.  Could be a test of the recent lows coming.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 13, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Long/money market program is Long 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  Nice gains in our aggressive programs on Friday.  Mixed readings for Monday with most of our programs in the money market. The market is kind of oversold and another day down should bring in some buying, but we could see some light on Monday.  Either way we are seeing some larger VIX numbers although still way below the long term average.  Higher VIX readings  mean more fear, jumpier traders and a better environment for us. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 6, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.   Big plunge for the NDX on Thursday.  I expect it to continue another day. Our Market Structure Level took another step higher and is now well into the positive area.  This should mean we will see a rally start, probably in the next week or two, as the level peaks and then starts to work its way lower.  The recent large daily changes have not caused a large jump in the Vix which means that those large moves have not caused much fear...yet.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 9, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Looks like the near identical response that we got to Janet Yellen's remarks March 31. How many times can she say it?  The news pushed the markets higher.  Our Market Structure Level climbed again and although we could see some early rally carryover I would not expect to see much more.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 8, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Retirement program is short 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund.  All other programs are 100% money market.  Tuesday the decline paused and our Market Structure Level took a step higher.  The day after the Level climbs the market often has a pause or decline depending on the overall tone of the market. Market Structure remains in the positive area.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 7, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Large drop with a moderate recovery for Monday, making three down days in a row for the NDX.  This is normally a sign that the market has had enough but our "long" signal has not kicked in.  The Market Structure level also stepped lower, another positive.  We will wait on the sidelines for a clearer picture. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  April 6, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  With the Market Structure Level still in positive territory we should consider the large NDX (-2.7%) drop on Friday a buying opportunity and not the start of a major decline.  There is a strong possibility of a rebound Monday or Tuesday.  All our programs are now at least partially long after being in the money market on Friday.  Money is leaving the high flyers, particularly in tech, which may continue to hurt the NDX. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 3, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level climbed giving more credibility to sustaining the rally.  Some other positives are emerging and I expect Thursday's lows will not be broken on Friday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 2, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.    Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Little has changed from yesterday.  We remain partially long.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: April 1, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.    Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Tuesday was a consistently strong day.  Maybe too strong to get much follow up.  Market Structure level remains in the lower area of the positive range.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 31, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Janet Yellen changed a few words so that investors could better understand what she was saying and they responded in a positive manner.  So when it comes to easing, a bad economy is good news.  We moved long in our aggressive programs. The Market Structure level remains near the lower levels of positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 28, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The aftermarket is positive and with three down days in a row for the NDX an up-day is usually expected. We have a slightly more negative view and are staying in the money market another day.    Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 27, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The NDX should outperform the S&P on Friday since it has been lagging.  Our Market Structure Level climbed a notch as it may make the long climb back up for another run to the upside.  I don't see the long term rally as being over just yet as the market remains relatively calm.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 26, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.    Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   Early gains were smashed as the KING ipo reminded the tech followers of the Internet folly in 2000-2003.  The new KING closed down over 15%. There was also a large buyer of put options on the S&P putting a scare into the bulls. We are holding our more conservative programs long and have moved into the money market with our aggressive programs.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 25, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   We have moved to a fully long position.  Probabilities look very strong to the upside.  Our Market Structure level remains flat but other components are constructive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 24, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The markets recovered about half their early drop for Monday.  Our Market Structure level held flat which is normally a neutral to negative signal. Other parameters turned positive and our aggressive programs are now long.  The Level is near the bottom of the positive zone, but I expect another run higher.  Netflix was off more than 6.5% and Facebook fell over 4.5% but the volatility is still very well contained.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 21, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Ukraine seems to be heating up again, but it is not really moving the Vix index.  Our signal turned flat and we moved to the sidelines, we had a good week.  Our Market Structure level stepped lower, normally this is enough of a reason to go long but other components were weak, so we will wait for a better opportunity to be exposed to the markets.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 20, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Thursday's market (NDX) regained about half of Wednesday's drop. Our signal has fallen off over the last few days and we moved into the money market with our conservative programs and cut our exposure by half in our aggressive programs. The Market Structure level is holding within the positive range but has fallen closer to the lower end telling us that most likely this upside push is more than half over.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 19, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We moved back to a fully long position in all programs. I believe that Yellen's comments were actually very bullish with regards to raising rates.  The current 6.7% unemployment rate is so close to the target 6.5% rage that they had to change the target to delay a rate raise. There is no hint of labor driving inflation and until that time there will not be any active push to raise rates.  The current 6.7% unemployment rate does not reflect the true unemployment rate as there are many people that no longer collect unemployment insurance and  are no longer counted.   Wages are not rapidly rising.  Jobs are not bidding for workers and our T-Index clearly shows that we are in a solid deflationary mode.  Wednesday's pull back should pave the way for a continuation of the rally on Thursday.  Our Market Structure level fell a step, a good sign as it remains positive.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 18, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  Our conservative program moved to the money market.  Probabilities have pulled back some but the basic signal remains positive.  Our  Market Structure level held flat and also remains in a positive mode.  The NDX had an 8 day win streak in February, but has not been able to put three days together since.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 17, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  I expect some carryover into Tuesday.  Our Market Structure level took another step lower, an indication that the rally will continue.   Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 14, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  The market is focused on Crimea and China, but so far we are only seeing minor weakness. I  prefer our worries to be more local.  Our Market Structure moved a step lower, a positive for Monday. The economics of today's world support cooperation over hostility. Hopefully the players will remember that.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 13, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Thursday's market drop raised the Vix to the 16 area, still much less than the 20 year average. Our Market Structure Level remained one step below the top and not showing any signs of a market plunge. Friday's do badly in poor markets, but this is still a bull.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 12, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.   The NDX showed strength making up Tuesdays fall.  Our Market Structure Level climbed, now one step below the top. Market Structure still foretelling  more new highs. Market appears to be leaning to the upside for Thursday.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 11, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.   Our Market Structure Level held two steps below the high. Early market gains turned to losses as copper continued its journey lower.  International demand, reflecting the slowing of the overall world economy.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 10, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  There was a large positive jump in our probabilities for Tuesday and our Market Structure Level moved a step lower in agreement.  I expect that this week could be the start of another push higher for the NDX.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 7, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.   Our Market Structure remains flat and holding.  The NDX gained less than 0.2%  for the week, and that it salvaged from Tuesday's larger jump. The S&P closed the week on a new  high. . Overall this appears to be digesting action with more up-side to come.  Outside the market we are seeing more retail store closures with Radio Shack to close about 1100. Albertsons is buying Safeway and with the overlap there should be a good number of store closings including processing plants and distribution centers. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 6, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.   Our Market Structure is now holding near its highest level.  More "chattering" is anticipated and then, most likely, additional upside.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 5, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is 100% Money market.   Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is 100% Money market.  The market digested its large Tuesday move and may spend another day doing so. We  withdrew from our conservative programs and cut our exposure on the others.  The VIX fell below 14 as our Market Structure Level held steady.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  March 4, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We received our first all long signal in number of weeks. Our Market Structure level finally moved off of its high point and if the level continues to fall this market rally should continue to make new highs.  The Vix slipped back to the 14 area and that means that there is very little fear in this market and very little volatility.  Tuesdays market move may have been a bit optimistic after Monday's drop as it more than made up for the fall without a full resolve of the Ukraine problem. Still we have moved fully long.    NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 3, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.   The market is chattering but not going anywhere.  The Market Structure Level remains at its highest point.  Monday recovered a good part of its drop. If we do not see a drop in the Structure Level I would expect a test of Monday's low. It was good to see the Vix climb a bit, breathing some life into this market.   NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: March 2, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.   Still no change in the Market Structure Level.  The after-market looks bad and Mondays can be nasty.  We remain on the sidelines.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 27, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.   Market Structure remains at the highest level. It can do this for awhile but most likely next week the pattern will change and it should result in a continued positive market.  For Friday I expect a tiny pull back, though the after-market is currently positive. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 26, 2014

Current position for Thursday:   Hot Money program is Long:100% Rydex NDX 2x fund.All other programs  are 100% money market.  Market Structure remains at the highest level, and we are starting to see additional positives. The NDX ended less than a tenth lower, with most other indexes closing positive.   NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 25, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  This market has held rather steady and that type of market does not often show its hand. The small moves are however more positive than negative and as we are already expecting an up-move it might just sneak up on us. Market Structure remains at the highest level. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 24, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level held firm.  Monday the market had strong early gains and held on to a good portion, even though it weakened into the close. Tuesday reverses Monday's direction more often than it follows. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 21, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level remained at its highest level for yet another day. This is a digestion phase for the market and last week was a good example as the general market closed the week mostly unchanged from the prior Friday..  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 20, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level remained at its highest level for another day.  I expect a more serious up-move next week.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 19, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level remains at its highest level. The pause I hinted at yesterday has started and could continue for a few days prior to what I expect will be another upswing.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 18, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level is now at its highest level. Our probabilities are mildly positive. but no signal. We could see a small pause prior to another upswing.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 17, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Market is moving ahead without worry. Our Market Structure level is now very positive. The market should have enough potential to continue making new highs. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 13, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Retirement program is Short 60% NDX 1x fund. All other  programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure is now near the top of the positive range and there should be more upside in the near future.  Thursday's early morning weakness was encouraged by bad economic news was not enough to hold the market down.  Now we have a positive week going into a long weekend.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 12, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money Market.  Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short 60% NDX 1x fund.  Late market action moved our forecast from short to neutral. The markets stayed mostly flat and our Market Structure level climbed back past the midpoint of the positive area.  Recent more volatile market behavior has put more fear in market participants making it easier for down days to occur.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 11, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Surprisingly strong market action on Tuesday without any real news.  Late in the day the house passed the debt ceiling increase. Our Market Structure theory has been calling for new highs in the NDX and we now have one. The Level climbed another step today. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 10, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money Market.  Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Short 60% NDX fund.  We have gone short for Tuesday.  Most of our short cases occur when the Market Structure is in the negative area, but some, like today, happen during the positive segment.  Monday's position, posted over the weekend, did not reflect the long positions of our conservative programs, it has been corrected below.  The Market Structure Level climbed a step off the lower segment of the positive area. Longer term remains positive.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 9, 2014

Current position for Monday: (*corrected 2/10) Long/Money market program Long: 75% Rydex 2x Fund. Conservative program Long: 80 % Rydex NDX 1x Fund. All other programs are 100% money market.  Very strong and surprising Friday as the climb continued to the weekend.  This is the type of market behavior we see during strong, not weak markets.  Our Market Structure Level fell a step, now once again at the bottom of the positive range, but all positives mean we should expect a continued recovery.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: February 6, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Good upside on Thursday but I don't expect any significant carry-over.  Employment figures are expected to be low and the weekend, during down months, will generally keep a lid on enthusiastic buying. Our Market Structure level climbed. This is necessary to the long term market heath, but short term, it too keeps a damper on the upside.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 5, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is  Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.   All our programs are now at least partially long.  The VIX remained above 19 showing a bit of fear and giving us a bit of an edge as emotions become easier to read. Our Market Structure moved down a step, now at the bottom of the positive range, but threatening to slip into the transition zone which is the buffer area between a positive market and a negative market. Most likely we will see the Structure Level climb back toward the center of the positive area.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 4, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  Stocks staged a partial and "not" very impressive rebound.  We have held our position,  Our Market Structure remains positive and flat. The outlook for Wednesday is neutral. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 3, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex NDX 1x fund.  We switched to the NDX funds in our conservative programs.  Monday turned down hard typical for a down-trending market but from our vantage point the market remains in an uptrend.  Tuesday generally turns higher after a strong negative Monday. We remain partially long overall.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  February 2, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex SPX 1x fund.  So far this year the market has been closely aligned with our Market Structure Theory.  Friday the Market Structure Level  (MSL) stepped lower a positive sign for Monday.  Monday has a tendency to follow Friday's direction especially the NDX so I decided to trade the S&P one more day prior to returning to the NDX.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: January 30, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  We will stop trading the S&P funds and  begin trading the NDX 100 funds on Friday.  By closing out all our NDX positions in December and not trading NDX for over 30 days we eliminates wash sales for tax purposes. We moved fully into the money market for Friday. Thursday's nice gain may be short lived as the aftermarket is weak and we are not seeing any positives.  Our Market Structure remained steady. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 29, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex SPX 1x fund. Our aggressive programs moved to the money market and our conservative programs moved out of the money market.  We have not had total agreement on direction for a number of days.  Facebook had strong earnings and the stock jumped over 9% after hours. Our Market structure level fell a step but still positive and midrange. Our longer term positive outlook remains unchanged.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 28, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  Tuesday's market was able to recover with the exception of the Apple influence.  Wednesday the nemesis may be Yahoo, who's good earnings was met with a sell-off after the close, as their revenue continued to decline.  This story is playing out in many companies.  They increase efficiencies, cut payroll and show better earnings, with fewer jobs being created there is less demand for their products and the cycle continues.   Our Market Structure level climbed on Tuesday good long term but making short term progress more difficult.   We are holding our partial position in our aggressive programs while out conservative programs remain in the money market.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 27, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  The market was unable to hold onto early gains and sold off at the close.  Our Market Structure level fell which should be good news for Tuesday.  We are holding our partial position in our aggressive programs and moved back into the money market with our conservative programs.  We continue to be positive about this market.  Daily movements for the most part are relatively small. Large price movements frighten investors into selling, but this market remains calm.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 26, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.     Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is  Long: 80% Rydex SPX 1x fund.  I do not believe that this is the start of a major down trend.  Our Market Structure level is above the center of the positive area, so our outlook is still for more new highs to come.  For Monday we increased our exposure to include our more conservative programs though our aggressive programs are not yet fully committed.   NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 23, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level continued to climb, rebuilding and moving to a high enough level to launch another assault on new highs. Meanwhile the markets fell and appear to be behaving in a more normal fashion, as apposed to the 2013 mono-directional market that most everyone loved.  Our more aggressive programs, out all of this week, are testing the water with a small long position.   China's manufacturing activity contracted for the first time in six months, not a surprise.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: January 22, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The Price action on Wednesday was similar to that of Tuesday with the Dow lagging the other indexes.  We stayed in the money market another day.  Our Market Structure level climbed again extending the expectations for additional new highs soon.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: January 21, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The markets recovered from an early dip with the exception of the Dow.  We moved fully to the money market as expectations are now leaning lower.  Our Market Structure level climbed extending the expectations for additional new highs soon.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 18, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  Primary program is 100% Money market.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.   Hot Money program is Long: 100% Money market.  Retirement program is Long: 80% Rydex SPX 1x fund. Our aggressive Signal closed "long", but unstable when we needed to place our trade so we moved to the money market. Our other programs are long as they use different algorithms. It is not a slam dunk to go higher on Tuesday as the return from a 3 day weekend has a negative 20 year history.  Our Market Structure level fell a step on Friday.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 16, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  Our Market Structure level stepped higher as we reduced our exposure for Friday.  The volatility remains low slowing progress. The average 20 day standard deviation for 2013, one measure of volatility, was only 57% that of the median value of the past 20 years and lower than each of those years.    NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 15, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex SPX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market.  I expect the indices to continue to make  new 2014 highs this coming week.  Our Market Structure level has declined to the lower portion of the positive area and may possibly continue on to enter the transition area which would be a warning of a market top.  But so far no indication of a top. Most programs have moved to the long side.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 14, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 80% SPX fund.  We have a split direction for Wednesday.  Since our aggressive programs are based on a different set of variables, once in a while, we get a divergence from our more conservative programs.  From our Market Structure point of view the markets should continue higher as the Level remains in positive territory but is falling. From a low volatility point of view the market should be able to continue higher.  Our overall signal looks at additional factors and is looking for a down day.  The large gain in the NDX today and the series of small down days earlier in the month could spell more downside over the next few days.  NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments: January 13, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Worse day than expected from the recent activity in the market.  Monday was the last of the negative money flow days and that may have been a factor.  From our Market Structure point of view we are firmly in the center of the positive zone and the level are declining and unless we see a rapid decline into the transition zone we remain positive and continue to expect new highs soon. Though we have a number of positive conditions our signal turned flat for Tuesday.  I would expect Tuesday's market activity to pause and rethink direction. NEW Long term projection posted this year.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.    

Comments:  January 10, 2014

Current position for Monday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex SPX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex SPX 1x fund.  I expect the indices to reach new 2014 highs this coming week.  Our Market Structure level has started to decline indicating stocks should climb on Monday while our money flow indicators go positive by Tuesday.  Together they imply that we should be in for a good week for stocks. We have gone fully long and all our programs are showing slight gains for 2014 as we managed to avoid the recent down days. NEW Long term projection posted last weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments:  January 9, 2014

Current position for Friday:  Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is 100% Money market.    Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market.  We reduced our exposure for Friday. Our money flow indicator points to more negative money flow through Monday.  With our Market Structure level holding flat another day It seems likely that an upside assault could start next week.  The minor pull back has not done much damage, and the pause in the market gains is very positive for the next leg higher.  NEW Long term projection posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments:  January 8, 2014

Current position for Thursday:  Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex SPX 2x fund.  Long/money market program is Long: 75%  Rydex SPX 2x fund.    Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex SPX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long  80% Rydex SPX 1x fund.  This is our first trade of the year.  Market Structure Level remains high as most other signal components turned positive, moving us fully long. Good employment figures this morning were offset by Macy's news of 2,500 layoffs to come.  Discount retailer Loehmann's filed for bankruptcy for a third time, they have been in business for over 90 years.  The effects of the internet and online shopping are still impacting the brick and mortar shops.  NEW Long term projection posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 7, 2014

Current position for Wednesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  The three down day rule did hold as the markets rebounded.  Continuing a second day higher should be more difficult. Our Market Structure level remains flat and near its highest point. It is generally best to wait for the Level to start to decline prior to any commitment of capital.  The daily changes in the market remain small and the rally should continue very soon.   NEW Long term projection posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 6, 2014

Current position for Tuesday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Three days into the new year and every day has been negative for the general market.  Normally we would expect a bounce after 3 down days, but my signals remain flat / neutral.  Most likely the dip is tax related.  Our Market Structure level remained only one step from its peak.  I expect that later this week the level will turn lower giving an indication that the next leg higher for the market is beginning.  NEW Long term projection posted this past weekend.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 5, 2014

Current position for Monday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Our Market Structure Level is now very positive, only one step away from the highest level.  This indicates that there should be enough potential to propel the markets to new highs starting this week.  This is not yet reflected in today's trading signal so we will wait for the proper time to enter the market.  We have posted a new long term forecast please read it.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

Comments: January 2, 2014

Current position for Friday:  All programs are 100% money market.  Thursday's drop, combined with the very positive Market Structure level should ease the way for more upside very soon.  In 2013 market investors showed that they prefer strong government policy over  growth in sales.  What will happen when government support is reduced and real estate gains slow or slip?  We shall see but I believe that soon will shift back to more normal market behavior.  Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.   

For earlier comments made in 2013