Daily Market Commentary

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Terms:Anticipatory trend

Terms: Feedback loop

Terms: MarketStructure

Terms: Market Volatility

Daily Market Commentary (and next day's position)

Comments: June 29, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. The early Friday gains were significant but the market gave most of them away by the close. Canada made their tariffs take effect next week. Tariffs are tit for tat so implementing tariffs are really just raising taxes on your own population. These (tariff) taxes are not progressive so they end up being regressive and everybody loses. Tariffs hurt everyone. Long term they put a damper on both corporate earnings and individual earnings. Our signal moved to "neutral", the aftermarket is positive while our probabilities are negative. Next week is a summer holiday week and should have less volume with less volatility. Volatility remains below the long term median. At the six month mark, despite the sharp Monday & Wednesday drops of last week, all of our programs are doing very well and SuperAlgo is up over 76% ytd. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 28, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Our signal remains long but the strength is waning. Going into the day prior to the weekend carries some fear but we may have already seen enough bad news for the week. I am expecting the recovery to extend into Friday. Volatility remains low, interest rates are low, and expected profit margins and earnings for the S&P continue to grow all supporting higher index prices. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 27, 2018

Comments: June 26, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Small market recovery on Tuesday and we remain "Long". Mr Trump has gone after Harley Davidson, but what he has not yet figured out is that the EU is specifically targeting his base. "Florida" orange juice, "North Carolina" tobacco, "Kentucky" bourbon, and Harley Davidson, it is personal. Welcome to the big leagues. Though it has taken a long time and many feel that the market top is here there can be a ways to go based on the low volatility, especially if the administration can do its job without any more self inflicted wounds on the economy. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 25, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. There were two news items of interest over the weekend that sent the market lower on Monday. Both regarding trade. Harley Davidson, showing how trade wars and tariffs are bad announce it was going to move some US production to the EU to avoid tariffs. This is the opposite of what Trump expected to happen. And news that there would be restrictions on foreign investment in US technology sent the NDX down over 3% and closing down about 2.2%. With volatility still low there is a good chance that this drop is more of a one off correction in a slowly overheating market. Our Anticipatory trend remains positive and our signal remains on the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 22, 2018

Comments: June 21, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. After spending the day in the money market as the NDX fell about -.87% we moved back to our partial long position for Friday. It appears that the market is still conflicted, but it is now leaning positive. The average volatility this year is double what it was all of last year. This accounts for our exceptional gains to date (market gets easier to read with higher volatility), but the recent volatility is now back to 2017 levels. At these low levels the market tends to go higher and cut off most downside moves. Thursday's drop stopped just above the 7200 level on the NDX and fluttered about the 7220 level closing just below it. The 7200 +/- level could act as a temporary bottom, just as the 7300+/- level acted as a temporary top. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 20, 2018

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% money market. As we suggested the NDX pushed past the 7300 level then fell back. I don't have a feel for Thursday's market and we moved to the money market. Volatility remains low so that could help the upside but most other indicators have turned flat. Overall there is not enough of a directional indication to take any risk. We will wait for a better opportunity. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 19, 2018

Comments: June 18, 2018

Comments: June 15, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. Our more aggressive accounts had a good week while our less aggressive accounts were in the money market. While the market continues to climb the trade war bravado is causing some market chatter and the chatter is keeping the market participants from committing strongly in either direction. Our anticipatory trend is at a strong point but is smothered in this silliness. If this trade war hits low end necessities it will do more harm than can be seen on the surface. Take children's shoes, they have been subject to US tariffs since the 1930s. Still US manufactures make their shoes overseas and not in the US. This is nothing more than a punitive tax on the consumer and those least able to afford it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 14, 2018

Comments: June 13, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% money market SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. The Fed left the market slightly lower but I expect the market to get back on the upward path Thursday. Our Market Structure level is at its highest point so there is plenty of potential to push this market higher once the various components align and if they don't align, the market could just continue to creep higher supported by the low volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 12, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. We have taken a partial short position for Wednesday. There is a Fed meeting tomorrow but that should not generate much excitement. Volatility continues to decline, which should help the markets stay up. Our SuperAlgo program is now up over 81% ytd but continued "super growth" will depend on the market's volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 11, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% money market. Volatility already low continues to fall. Our Market Structure level climbed again telling us that there is potential buying waiting to come on board, but when is the question. The summer usually brings a decrease in volume and that does not help enthusiasm. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 8, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% money market. This is our third "out": trade this week. Although we got the new highs expected in the NDX it was not clean with regard to our signals. For now our signals are weak and conflicted. Volatility remains low, International trade issues lurk and very little is clear. All programs show very small gains for the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 7, 2018

Comments: June 6, 2018

Comments: June 5, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% money market. The NDX made another new high and should pop through the intraday high on Wednesday supported by low volatility, but overall the risk reward ratio remains too even for us to become exposed to this market at the current time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 4, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% money market. The NDX made a new closing high and should at some point also make a new intraday high but for Tuesday we have moved out of the market as the risk/reward ratio was neither strongly in our favor nor negative enough to take an inverse position. First rule is to avoid unnecessary risk. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: June 1, 2018

Comments: May 31, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We held our position going into June. The on again, off again tariffs and North Korea meetings need to be ignored. Only the insiders are making money on those. In general low volatility means higher stock prices and that is the current most likely direction, though for now it will be small steps and back steps. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 30, 2018

Comments: May 29, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We moved our Anticipatory Trend program back into the money market as the market remains in a non-committal posture. We are also holding our other positions. The 10 year note rates have fallen from above 3% a few days ago to below 2.77% that's a quarter percent drop and sure to catch the eye of bulls. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 25, 2018

Comments: May 24, 2018

Comments: May 23, 2018

Comments: May 22, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. The fast money should be gone for awhile until the market gets soft again and sends the volatility higher. Until then I expect results more in line with last year, which were good but not great like the first nineteen weeks of this year were. Wednesday should be positive and today's small pullback should help the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 21, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. This administration is know for reversing itself on almost all matters almost all the time so it was surprising that the market jumped on news that there would be no China tariffs. The jump was small compared to moves a few weeks ago as volatility has now slipped back to where it was in early January. If this continues we can expect much slower progress with regards to gains, as we are very much limited by the size of the market's daily changes. Our long only program, (up +12.5% ytd) which has fallen behind some of our other programs should benefit in this environment as low volatility supports a more upward driving market. We have moved fully long consistent with our long position in our Anticipatory trend. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 18, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Conservative program is 100% Money market, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. I continue to look for another market surge very soon while dealing with a mixed set of signals and a market that has the jitters. Both our Conservative program and Anticipatory trend programs spent the week in the money market avoiding the silly stuff. Our SuperAlgo program encountered its third losing week out of twenty for this year and settled with a year to date gain +72.6%. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 17, 2018

Comments: May 16, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Conservative program is 100% Money market, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Looking at our Market Structure level it appears that the market will make another upward push soon. For now our signal is leaning to the down side and we held our short. Volatility is below the long term average but above last years average. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 15, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Conservative program is 100% Money market, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We reversed our position for Wednesday but maintained a low profile with partial exposure for all but our SuperAlgo which is at 100% short. Volatility has toned down but remains above last years average, which is a good thing. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 14, 2018

Comments: May 11, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We continue to hold our partial long position. The market remains stronger than expected based on both money flow and our Anticipatory trend, but for the coming week things are changing. Money flow will improve by Monday and remain positive for most of the week. Our Anticipatory trend should also turn positive as our Market Structure Level has climbed close to its high point providing the market with more positive potential to burst out. I expect to see some strong "long" signals during next week, how many and exactly when I still do not know, but these signals have strong reliability and that could mean the market may come up against the highs of earlier this year.... It is too bad that we continue to see ethics violations from both political parties that seem to just get ignored. Whether it is out of line payments for a speech or out of line payments for insights into the administrations policy they are both just influence peddling and bribes. Putting a layer of language to cover over what it really is should not be a reason to let it go. Ask the man who did not put a fancy name on his dealings and got 14 years in jail for it Rod Blagojevich. Anyway, on a good note our SuperAlgo program is now up +78.7% year to date. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 10, 2018

Comments: May 9, 2018

Comments: May 8, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We have moved partially long. It appears that the market is in a pausing mode. We have a weak "up" signal for Wednesday, Trump has pulled out of the Iran deal but that did not seem to concern the markets. From my readings we are looking at a more sideways market in the near term and then I expect another leg higher. Volatility is slowly decreasing, diminishing the size of potential gains or losses. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 7, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Conservative program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. We reversed our position for Tuesday. As a follow up to Friday's comments the money flow is not good this week and the Anticipatory Trend is negative. With that as a backdrop our signal also turned negative on Monday. This will probably result in a drop on Tuesday and I would expect that Friday's close would be lower than today's. The volatility is now slightly below the long term median which is a positive, so I do not expect any large plunge, probably more of a flattening or saw tooth action for the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 4, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. The news cuts both ways and Friday was our day to benefit, we received a big boost from employment numbers, inflation rates and Warren Buffet disclosure of APPL purchases. Our SuperAlgo program has gone higher for 16 of the 18 weeks this year and is now up +68.8% ytd. Friday's jump pushed all our programs to new all time highs. Monday's probabilities are positive and could push the markets a little higher, that may top it for the week as money flow looks flat to lower and our Market Structure is expected to also exhibit some flat to negative behavior. Of course we will step through this with you day by day, taking advantage of the latest information as we go. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 3, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. The NDX closed basically unchanged and weakened our expectations. We remain long but I do not have full confidence in that direction. I believe the recent revelations in the Russian investigation are causing investor concern particularly the hiring of Clinton's impeachment lawyer by Donald Trump. The walls are closing in on the administration and perhaps coming down, leaving investors with uncertainty as to how it will impact business and the stock market. On a better note, Interest rates seemed to have peaked last week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: May 2, 2018

Comments: May 1, 2018

Comments: April 30, 2018

Comments: April 27, 2018

Comments: April 26, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. We had substantial gains on Thursday with the help of some good after the bell tech stock earnings reports. Friday we reversed but our shorts will be facing the headwinds of Amazon's earnings beat. I expect that the early positive market follow through will be somewhat tempered by the expected downward bias we were anticipating, but most likely we will see some upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 25, 2018

Comments: April 24, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex inverse NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Our signal is mostly money market with our more aggressive SuperAlgo program turned short. Tuesday's market kept the higher volatility level alive and sent the NDX down four days in a row. This often signals an oversold condition and one would look for a bounce. I think that the bounce may take another day or a few days to come. Our Anticipatory trend remains locked and ready to provide support for an upward moving market but we are not there yet. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 23, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: All programs 100% Money market. We picked up some partial gains Monday and moved fully into the money market at the close. Probabilities look mixed for Tuesday. Still waiting for our Anticipatory trend program to signal the start of another uptrend, but so far it is holding flat. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 20, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Our signal turned partially short. Friday should have fallen enough to frighten some more investors and I believe we will see some follow through on Monday. Our Anticipatory trend program is in a good position to turn long this week and that should provide some short term lift to this market when it does. Volatility remains at a slightly elevated level above the long term median an indication of more worry among investors. For us we have a mostly down week but with a bright spot as our SuperAlgo program closed out another positive week its year to date return is a real +56.2% and it is up15 of the last 17 weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 19, 2018

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. When probabilities are nearly flat it is much easier for any news to blow the market one way or another and bond yields climbing was a negative. We moved to the money market. Our Anticipatory trend level is pegged at the top, a drop will be positive. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 18, 2018

Comments: April 17, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Our Anticipatory trend level has peaked and should start moving down very soon this week or next providing the market with another boost, though for the past week and a half, the market seems to be doing well without it. We are partially long for Wednesday. Volatility is slightly elevated but long term normal. NFLX jumped over 9% on a great earnings report. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 16, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money Market. A good portion of Monday's gain came from the realization that the bombing was more a well orchestrated PR event than an unhinged act of war. For us this falls under political risk and there is no way to avoid these random events. The level in our Anticipatory trend has gained for a while and should be about ready to start moving lower bringing with it some stronger upside for the markets. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 13, 2018

Comments: April 12, 2018

Current position for Friday: All programs 100% Money market. This is our third money market day this week and four in nine days. Normally we are in the market more, not less under high volatility. Not much going on except high expectations for earnings and continued chaos in the White House. Volatility remains relatively high and Anticipatory tend is neutral. Probabilities lean slightly to the upside with potential for fewer, but larger drops. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 11, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Our signal turned fully short, and this time it did not waffle. Volatility is high enough for a reliable down signal. Money flow has turned positive but that should not be too much of a concern. Oil prices keep climbing, pushing inflation higher and acting as a tax on the economy. Could see a down day here. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 10, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: All programs 100% Money market. The market increase can be attributed to China's comments on reducing tariffs. Our positions got a big boost from that news. For the third day in the past five we needed to take the safe path into the Money market as the market became unstable near the close. Since we must place our trades five minutes prior to the close we need to be clear regarding direction. Under higher volatility conditions we usually are in the market more, not less often. I expect that we will not see too many more money market days for awhile. Higher volatility days will increase the number of trades by about 10%. They will increase the reliability of trades by about two thirds and increases the average magnitude of the daily change by a factor of about 2.9x this combines to provide about 5 times the potential of a quiet, low volume market. By the close, the market was giving us a strong sell signal so I expect a lower day on Wednesday. *Some day of week date/day typos were corrected below from last week no results changed.) Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 9, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long 60% Rydex NDX 2X fund. All other programs 100% Money Market. Fears of a 150 Billion dollar trade war eased somewhat and the markets closed mildly ahead. We watched from the Money market and two of our programs turned long by the close. Volatility remains at about twice the long term median. Money flow is somewhat negative and our Anticipatory trend turned positive. Overall we have a mixed but positive outlook for Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 6, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. For the second day in a week our signal became unstable near the close and we closed out all our positions and moved to the money market. Normally on Monday the market will continue in the direction it took on Friday, however it would appear based on this Friday's close that the market will reverse and go higher on Monday. Our signal became unstable near the close and I did not have enough data to take a positive position, only enough to take the least risky path of moving to the money market. We will come back on a clearer day. This turned out to be a good week for all our programs, even with the poor showing on Friday. Our SuperAlgo program added to its gains and is now up over an amazing +50% ytd (this is a leveraged program with high risks as well as potential rewards). Lagging far behind is our most conservative program up only +3.2% ytd, still very good for little more than the first quarter. The NDX100 itself remains positive for the year at +0.6% ytd. Volatility remains high making markets dangerous especially when one of the driving forces on the market is a world leader with the bravado of a 14 year old boy. (Yes I am annoyed). He may just be blowing smoke but the markets don't like trade wars. We can't know the news or the tweets we only hope to find enough days of calm in-between to allow us to make gains on our positions, the rest usually cancels itself out over time. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 5, 2018

Comments: April 4, 2018

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. Our signal became unstable near the close and we closed out all our positions and moved to the money market. Probabilities remain positive, though less so as the rally passes its second day and our Anticipatory trend flattens. Still, since money flow remains positive and we recently hit a bottom signal I expect to see more upside on Thursday assuming the news does not send the markets lower, which with its elevated volatility could end up being the case. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 3, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 80%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We are holding our long position into Wednesday. Both the money flow and Anticipatory trend turned position which should give this starting rally some legs. Volatility remains slightly elevated which raises the risk but also raises the potential for larger gains. Our SuperAlgo program is at new highs well over 50% ytd. while the NDX index it up a flat 1%. Our programs are time-based-diversified so they work independent of the trending direction of the stock market. Even a small percentage of your funds into one of our programs will help you diversity your portfolio. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: April 2, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 80%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Our programs are working well and getting a boost from the higher volatility. One must remember that every probability has two sides and the less probable side also has a chance of happening. Long term success is based on utilizing a string of those higher probabilities. Today's drop triggered another bottom signal which marks an oversold point but the NDX closed over 1% off its lows and money flow remains negative so there may be even more selling. We captured Monday's drop and reversed our position and are now long going in to Tuesday. Money flow turns positive by Wednesday so Tuesday or Wednesday should start the swing to the upside. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 29, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, SuperAlgo program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Our signal turned short. With Monday being the first day of the month. Today being an up-day prior to a weekend. And Monday, the start of a new quarter which should help the tech stocks, gives us three good reasons for Monday to go higher....but there are even more forces ready to push the market back down and those forces have turned my signal negative. We are fully short. The past week was only four days but with wild swings and an overall positive ending. Volatility has gone above the long term average and most likely will not return to the sleepy small change days we had gotten used to, so stay awake. Our most aggressive program, SuperAlgo closed at a new weekly closing high of +42.2% ytd. but off its high for the week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 28, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 80%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. There are a few things currently going on in the market. Probably most important is that it is the end of the first quarter and tech stocks have been wounded. Mutual funds are "window dressing", cutting some tech stocks from their portfolio to make it look better. Traders don't have to worry about looking good, and since most of these companies are still very sound and they now sell at a discount, traders most likely will start buying back in on Thursday the last trading day of this month. By Monday the funds should be ready to buy back in again also. Meanwhile my bottom signal has triggered the second day of a bottom, this is usually followed by an up-move. I have dug back into our program looking to remove borderline signals. Today I cut back over 5% from SuperAlgo. This will reduce the overall long term market exposure and help to reduce draw-downs. Lesser amounts were trimmed from our other programs......In the news Trump's lawyer is talking pardons for Flynn and Manafort. This has the appearance that he is giving Flynn and Manafort a reason to keep quiet. If others see it that way it could be construed as obstruction of justice, Interesting. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 27, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 80%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Tuesday's plunge was much more than I was expecting. The market usually does not test a bottom so quickly, if that was a test. And if it was a test, did it pass? The volatility has gone up making it a more dangerous market to buy and hold. Low volatility markets mostly go up, high volatility markets will trend in either direction. We will do our best to step through this. We have cut back on the long exposure in our conservative program due to the higher volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 26, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Near the end of the day even FaceBook jumped in on the rally, this is the largest one day move in the NDX in about two and a half years. It pushed our Primary program over 13.5% and our SuperAlgo program past the +50% level ytd. At this point I expect a little more market carry over, but past that, we need to go day by day. The higher volatility should be helpful in that process. The volatility is now moving above the long term mean but low enough that the main market direction should remain up. Our Anticipatory trend is up. Our signal strong. The news of behind the scenes talks with China on trade added to an already positioned to the upside market, giving us this super rally. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 23, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. SuperAlgo (High Exposure) program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. Once again we reversed our position to Fully long for Monday. Our High Exposure program will be renamed "SuperAlgo" as it combines the best algorithms we have developed over the past 20 years. It survived the week and remains up over +39% year-to-date. With a leverage factor of about 1.9x it is not for anyone who plans to withdraw their funds in a few months as the ride can get bumpy. We started this program just two days after the 2016 elections, bad timing as the Trump win was unexpected for the markets and they took a while to get back to normal. The SuperAlgo program closed the week only slightly lower than where it started. Looking ahead volatility climbed back to long term normal, our Market Structure level is positive and high enough to provide support for an attempt at a recovery, our Anticipatory Trend is positive, Signal is strong, probabilities and amplitudes positive. Expectations are for a good Monday following this week that saw the NDX fall over 7%. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 22, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 37.5% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is 100% money market. High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% money market. So much for a mush down. The rains fell on the market bringing the fifth more than -2% NDX drop this year and as bad as the NDX was hit the Dow and S&P got hit worse. Problems seem to be spinning out of control from Trump's multiple firings, law suites, congratulating Putin and off-the-cuff tweets, to potential Tariff induced trade wars, nuclear wars, school shootings, rising interest rates, unskilled celebrity advisors, stolen data and Russian influence of presidential elections, the question is how can it stay up? The markets closed slightly off the lows and that could mean that there is more to come. The S&P is now down more than -1% ytd. Our signal switched sides to a partial short, volatility was helped by today's market tumble but still remains below the long term average. Money flow is negative for Friday and it appears that we will have a somewhat choppy market going forward as the build up of worries may now be enough to weigh against the positives. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 21, 2018

Comments: March 20, 2018

Comments: March 19, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x fund. We got the large drop I warned of on Friday. Glad to have been in the money market. Facebook, Google and Amazon own powerful databases and to believe that they can be "loaned" out is both foolish and dangerous. The communications between Facebook friends contains so much more information that AI could, and most certainly has, already mined that it must be regarded as of national importance and dangerous if gotten into international hands. Too late for that. Likewise for Google data which tracks the whereabouts of a large number of Americans and Amazon which is able to extract enormous amounts of information from every purchase. There will be law suites, there will be data disasters and it will cut a piece out of each company's PE ratio. There is great responsibility that goes along with owning these data bases. We have a minor long signal for Tuesday. I was hoping for a stronger signal with the NDX now down five days in a row and the partial signal could mean that the TECH sector will remain under a cloud for a little while longer. From our probabilities the positive amplitude for the NDX shows a +1.23% which, if achieved, would take us to Monday's high of the day in the NDX. The market internals are strengthening as it falls and we remain on track for an up-move sometime this week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 16, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. We closed out all of our positions for Monday. Though it looks more likely for the market to have a small gain on Monday, there is potential for a large fall. From what I can tell, investors are waiting to see if the 7,000 level holds on the NDX. Further to this the market internals seem to be building, our Market Structure level shows strength and regardless of Monday's direction there should be another spurt higher later in the week. Our aggressive programs were "long" for the past three days as the NDX fell very little, leaving us with strong gains for the week. Our High Exposure program is now up +40% ytd, our Primary program up over +10% and all the rest are doing quite well with it being only two and a half months into the year. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 15, 2018

Comments: March 14, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. The NDX closed slightly lower and we find ourselves pretty much in the same situation for another day. We are holding our partial long position. Our Market Structure level is building again, getting ready for another assault to the upside. Volatility is only slightly below long term normal. These are good things. On the other hand the chaos in the White House and the hard line protectionist moves would have sunken another market, but this one seems to be immune. After months of nuke scares, offending our allies and bromancing Putin the market is numb. Still, as always, one day at a time is the best approach. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 13, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Our program correctly caught Tuesday's drop pushing our High Exposure program past the +40% mark year to date. I expect the markets to hold here on Wednesday and perhaps show a bit of upside as traders take advantage of the down day to move back in to the NDX index above the 7,000 mark. Probabilities and amplitudes are positive but not exceptionally strong, Anticipatory trend and money flow are flat. Bad news could sway the market to the down side but lack of that, it should show some promise. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 12, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Our signal turned short. The NDX made a string of seven up days in a row, we spent the first day in the money market but caught up with some leverage for the rest of the ride. Now we are expecting a pull back. But this could be a blow off following a new all time high, and if so we will certainly get dinged, though statistically we should be on the right side of the move. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 9, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. A good portion of Friday's gains should be attributed to the strong job numbers. I say thanks. Excellent week for us bringing our High Exposure program up to +36.7% year to date. The program gained +29.8% for all of last year, this year we had the benefit of higher volatility which not only makes the signals easier to read but also means they come more frequently and with larger daily changes. The volatility has moved back up to the normal long term average after a number of years of exceptionally low levels. Generally the things that can derail the gains are major random events that unhinge the markets either during the day or overnight. We can't predict the news, but, like today, it can sometimes help as well as hurt. We have moved back fully long with the expectation that the new highs will carry over into Monday, our Anticipatory trend has turned positive along with money flow, but the NDX is now up six days in a row and that makes it harder to keep going. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 8, 2018

Comments: March 7, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We reduced our exposure to the upside for Thursday. The Cohn scare could not hold back the NDX and it closed positive after an early decline. There is not a lot of potential energy left this week to push things higher, money flow is flat and our Anticipatory trend has flattened along with it. Signal is a weak positive. Looks like our High Exposure program is now up +30% year to date. Send me your name and Email address if you would like more information on our programs and methods.

Comments: March 6, 2018***

Comments: March 5, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We are holding our fully long position for a third day. Perhaps the tariffs are seen as just another Trump "Inflict chaos, then renegotiate" ploy. At least for now the market seems to have shaken off the tariff scare. Interesting article by John Dizard in the Financial Times today about money laundering and the US $100 bill. With a current circulation of about 45, $100 dollar bills for every man, woman and child in the US the Fed has ordered another 1.67 billion of them. It seems they make a great tax free loan to the US government from the world's criminals. Though not discussed in the article the serial numbers are helpful in tracing the path of the money and the bills could be recalled at some later date with limitations. This could make that tax free loan of 167 billion dollars a 100 billion dollar bonus. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 2, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We held our fully long position into Monday. The current problem is tariffs and their destructive impact on prices, jobs and the stock market. But.... sometimes what is unpopular on first look has benefits, Europe's gasoline taxes that more than double the price of gas led to the use of smaller cars and high efficiency gasoline engines and alternative energy sources, (wind and solar). That also curbed run away oil prices and increased public transportation usage. This is different. The tariffs will help specific companies at the expense of everyone else. I don't see any social redeeming qualities to it. I expect to see more upside near term as mentioned in prior posts. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, POSTED LAST WEEK, longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: March 1, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We moved fully long for Friday. So far this year our fully long positions have not done very well with our other positions all showing gains, but we have not had that many fully long days and I expect the positive statistics to prevail. A strong Friday should carry into next week. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, POSTED LAST WEEK, longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 28, 2018

Current position for Thursday: All programs 100% Money market. After an early burst of optimism a pale came over the markets mostly in the last hour of trading. Our positive signal reversed late in the day and we moved to the money market to avoid chatter. It looks negative for Thursday and more selling is expected but I still expect another attempt at new market highs over the next two weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, POSTED LAST WEEK, longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 27, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We reversed our position and have gone fully long for Wednesday. Our Market Structure level has started to descend moving our Anticipatory Trend to the long side, and that should bring another market surge to the upside this should be helped by a more positive money flow later in the week. The NDX closed at the low for the day indicating an emotional extreme and generally positive following day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, POSTED LAST WEEK, longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 26, 2018

Comments: February 23, 2018

Current position for Monday: All programs 100% Money market. Although I have been saying for the past two weeks that I was looking for a full recovery it seems to have come much sooner than expected. Glad to have a money market day and let this jolt settle in. The probabilities are still leaning a bit negative but our signal is flat. Our programs consist of three levels of long and short, and although we had a negative day today our short trades have made a profit for 2018 and most of our long trades have also, the only losing area is our normally highest rated "long" trades which carry greater exposure for most of our programs. Our High Exposure program is doing best as the steady exposure to all three levels and both long and short has worked out very well for it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, POSTED THIS WEEK, longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 22, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Thursday was the fourth small move day. I expect to see one or two more down days prior to March and then a return to the upside at least to the 7000 mark on the NDX. We will, like always step through this day by day. Our Market Structure level is now near a high and normally that means an upside push will carry over the next few weeks. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, JUST POSTED longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 21, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Once again the NDX had a sharp early climb and then gave it back, this time closing lower. We are holding our short position for a third day. I posted the new long term forecast yesterday, the first since September 2017. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW, JUST POSTED longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 20, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. The NDX managed to hold a small positive, pulling back from a much larger earlier swing as all other indices closed in the red. We are holding our short position. I have posted another long term forecast, the first since September 2017. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our NEW JUST POSTED longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 16, 2018

Comments: February 15, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Another strong market day hosted by another plunging dollar, off -1/2%. The world is losing confidence in America's ability to pay back its debts. There will be more inflation and three more years at this rate (past year) will bring hyper-inflation. This is not the wage inflation that the government like to talk about, this is caused by a deflating dollar raising the cost of everything imported. This type of inflation hits the poor first and makes their problems worse. If you believe social programs are a drain on the economy then you want a strong dollar as less welfare is needed in an economy where goods are cheap enough for poor people to afford them and where low wages still buy enough to eat. The market has now put together five strong days, usually these back to back up days are accompanied by smaller changes. The historical median size of the daily changes is about half what we are currently seeing. There is some aberrant force pushing the market higher, most likely the falling dollar. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 14, 2018

Current position for Thursday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. The strong market on Wednesday was mostly due to the sharp -.84% drop in the US dollar. This helps multinational corporation's increase overseas profits, while for local US citizens it acts as a tax on food lumber and most products consumed. So it is good for the markets, bad for the population and we were on the wrong side of that move on Wednesday. For Thursday we are mostly in the money market. I continue to look for a complete market recovery by sometime in March. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 13, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Tuesday marks the third day of recovery and our Market Structure level is now firmly positive. This indicates to me that the decline should terminate soon, probably some time this month. For now we have a strong short signal going into Wednesday and volatility is high enough to add credibility to it. Happy Valentine's day. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 12, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. We had an interesting occurrence on Friday with carry through on Monday and that was our Market Structure level moving from negative to a low level positive in what I call the transition zone. It appears that it could go solidly positive and that would change the underlying conditions. With interest rates still relatively low the up-tick in volatility could result in a more positive condition than I was expecting and perhaps send the markets to new highs. For now we have two strong back to back days and that is not a good condition to keep the market moving higher. My program has seen something beyond that and we have a strong long signal for Tuesday, I hope it is correct. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 9, 2018

Current position for Monday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. We are holding our very sheltered position with only our most aggressive program "long". This aggressive program is now up +23.0% for the year to date while the NDX has only managed a +0.3% and the S&P a -2.0% ytd. I need to give this "High Exposure" program a better name reflecting some of its positive qualities while at the same time reminding investors of the higher risk. The program is consistent in its approach to market exposure, it is full throttle up, down or out. I realize that some trades are more reliable than others and in most of our other programs I will vary our exposure to match the reliability. In this program we move to the money market when the signal is unclear, but I do not vary our exposure. The program is actively in the market more often than any of our other programs, and it is designed for maximum gains with the understanding that things could get bumpy, I expect things to get bumpy. I also expect that with the ability to easily move to either side we will more often be correct and less likely to get caught in protracted down moves, especially under more volatile markets like we just encountered. Last year the program returned 29.8% not counting our annual fee of 1.5% for that program and it happened in a very calm market environment. This program will add a strong degree of diversification to any buy and hold program, something you are unlikely to get with any other asset class, since when things get very bad, all assets tend to tank like they did in 2008. This one walks its own path.

Buy and hold alert.* The market's volatility is now in the danger level for buy and hold investors, it is in an area which historically accounts for about the top 20% of volatility readings, 35% of the price movement, and and has resulted in large swings with no real total returns over the past 25 years.

By Thursday's close we reached what I consider a short term over-sold level and Friday we had a small recovery relieving some of the pressure. I don't think the down side is over as money flow is looking shaky for the rest of February. I expect to see more problems ahead this coming week, though we still take things one day at a time. This is a dangerous time for the buy and hold people, history does not have your back at this level of volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 8, 2018

Current position for Friday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. All other programs 100% Money market. Thursday's drop was even larger than Monday's large fall but this time we were short. So far, and overall, it has been a good week for us and we closed out all short positions by Thursday's close. The higher volatility has been helpful. Even our "long/money market only" program was able to avoid both last Friday's and today's fall, saving us at least 6%. I mentioned back in December that I was working on a program upgrade. It was centered on our Anticipatory trend program. By overlaying an additional algorithm on the neutral days we were able to uncover a number of additional "long" days with exceptional reliability. This is also now being used to increase the exposure in some of our "partial long" days for our other programs and add some "long" days to our conservative program. Since the stock markets long term volatility has fallen greatly over the years this upgrade will add some needed boost in market exposure without significantly adding to the expected draw-downs as it was focused on only the most reliable cases. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 7, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. The markets fell near the close after being up earlier. The NDX took the lead to the down side giving back half of Tuesday's gains. We reversed our position at the close and are now aimed down for Thursday. The increase in volatility should be a help to us, but could cause more damage to the market in general which should show greater price swings. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 6, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. More than sixty percent of Monday's drop was recovered on Tuesday. We are holding our position, the probabilities are positive, but not as favorable as they were for Tuesday. After the close SNAP announced strong revenue gains and the stock jumped +20% in the aftermarket. The volatility is now a little above average but still not "run-for-your-life" high. There should be more danger ahead and I would expect that we will go short some days this month. What makes this drop somewhat different is that similar drops, relative to current volatility, occur only about once every three years. So far for us the hard drop has been a one day thing, having been in the money market on Friday and "long" for Monday and Tuesday. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 5, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. A very bad down day reminiscent of 2008 when there were 19 days as bad or worse. The market used to be more volatile. In both 2000 and 2001 these drops happened nearly three times a month. But since the start of 2012 we have only seen three (with this being the third). Probabilities are strong for a rebound, especially with this drop coming on a Monday. We will stay with the probabilities and hold our position. We are not new traders and have gone through rough patches before, never liking it, but so far, always surviving it. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 2, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. The NDX which usually leads the market in both directions lost less than either the S&P, NYSE, DJIA or RUT as it was supported by Amazon whose earning beat allowed it to gain nearly 3%. We moved out of the money market at the close and are expecting a turnaround on Monday. There could very well be some morning follow through selling, but I think it will end higher, possibly gaining back half of Friday's drop. Volatility is increasing and along with it we find additional risks, but the increased volatility also makes the markets easier to read, so within bounds, it is a good thing. Expect some rebound gains early next week then renewed selling. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: February 1, 2018

Current position for Friday: All programs are 100% money market. The February downside I spoke of yesterday may have gotten an early start. Our signals turned flat and we moved to the money market. Volatility remains low and on the edges of the complacent zone. I am expecting volatility to rise over the next few weeks and the market to move lower. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 31, 2018

Comments: January 30, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. What I said about the State of the Union Speech holds for today as the speech is tonight, not last night. (I apologize for the error.) Since, as I said, we do not take potential events into account, it did not effect our position which was correct as the market went lower. We reversed our position and are now fully long for Wednesday and I expect the speech will improve the positive probabilities. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 29, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Short: 75% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is 100% Money market. Retirement program is Short: 60% Rydex Inverse 1x fund, High Exposure program is Short: 100% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Short: 50% Rydex Inverse NDX 2x fund. Interesting situation for Tuesday. Our signal is firmly short but there are some outside considerations. (1) volatility remains low and (2) The State of the Union Speech is tonight. Judging by the inauguration speech, Trump will not have written it for his core group. It will be well written and go over well and sound encouraging. This could send the markets higher, or give sellers a time to start to unload as interest rates rise. The low volatility suggests that the markets will gain. Our program does not take specific potential events into account and we go with the statistics which in this case are negative. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 26, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is Long 100%* Rydex NDX 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex NDX 2x Fund. What I expected to be a slightly positive day turned into a major plus. Supported by a falling dollar and Intel's positive earnings the NDX jumped over 1.5%. Sending our High exposure program up over 15% for the first 4 weeks of 2018. Our strong signal for Monday may be undermined by Friday's closing enthusiasm, the NDX, DOW, S&P and RUT all closed on their highs. But Monday tends to follow Friday's lead so we should see some follow through. Volatility remains low but it is slowly climbing. Our Anticipatory trend turned positive and unless this very important trend is positive we do not go long in our conservative program or our Trend program. This has kept us out of the market in these programs all but three days in 2018. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 25, 2018

Comments: January 24, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex NDX 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We reduced our exposure as our anticipatory trend once again turned neutral. The imposition of tariffs are the most likely cause of the decline as this will result in tariffs put on our goods going to other countries so nothing is accomplished and the tariffs are really just another tax smothering an industry. The dollar had a sharp drop, it has now fallen over 12.5% since the start of 2017. Multinational corporations love it because it makes them more competitive with foreign goods. It helps the stock market short term, but the US population loses. Everything imported costs more and since we have become a country with a large under-employed population with runaway rents adding costs is dangerous politics. There is only one reason for a country's currency to fall and that is a drop in the perceived credit worthiness of that country. If lenders do not believe a country will pay back its obligations then its currency must fall. Germany in the 20's Argentina in the 80's are good examples. Unfortunately foreign countries have a lack of confidence in the leadership of the United States. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 23, 2018

Comments: January 22, 2018

Comments: January 19, 2018

Current position for Monday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. All programs are positive while our most aggressive program is up over 10% ytd. It is interesting that the chance of a government shutdown, which would cause a wide disruption of service has not caused the slightest market ripple. We remain in our non-aggressive posture going into Monday. The current market conditions have been ongoing and will eventually change, most likely to one with larger daily moves to the upward or downward direction, but I have been expecting increased volatility for a long time and it has not occurred. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 18, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Small hesitation in the markets. We moved back to the less exposed overall long position that we held most often since the start of the year. This is just a slow grinding, upward moving market. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 17, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex S&P 2x fund. A relatively strong market day, I believe strong enough to encourage more buying, and not too strong as to cause investors to believe they should pull some money out. We have moved fully long as our Anticipatory trend program has kicked in on the long side. Volatility remains low, Tuesday brought some relief with a small pull back, so investors will most likely continue the romp. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 16, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. After an early rise the markets pulled back. We are holding our reduced position. Though maybe over-priced the market is not exhibiting the signs of exuberance, it is calmly moving forward. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 12, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We have a very steady upward moving market, moving under a low volatility cover. It could easily continue. We moved back to our partially long position remaining both cautious and showing good gains for our efforts. Our Anticipatory trend, for the most part, has not been positive during the past few weeks, and when it does turn positive it should help the market continue to climb. We are in the process of updating our forecast page and will be updating our charts shortly. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 11, 2018

Current position for Friday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. Once again the market continues higher but is mostly out of support to continue much further. Our money flow has turned negative and our Anticipatory trend is flat to lower. Volatility is very low still keeping the shorts away. Probabilities look ok. Quick note on our High exposure program, it is currently up over 7% ytd. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 10, 2018

Current position for Thursday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. Finally a small pull-back which should let the pressure off. We are holding our positions, money should be positive for Thursday and that should help along with low volatility. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Jan 9,2018----Website is back up and running. There was a earthquake in Berkeley that brought down our web host on January 4th. This was a significant problem but now fully resolved. Our Email is also back up. This did not impact our trading in any way, and those trades and comments are shown below.

Comments: January 9, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. We moved back to a partial "long". Volatility remains low but the rally is old. Looks like the tank is empty but the car continues to roll. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 8, 2018

Current position for Tuesday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The market continues higher but is mostly out of support to continue any further. Our money flow has turned negative and our Anticipatory trend is flat to lower. Volatility is very low keeping the shorts away. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 5, 2018

Comments: January 4, 2018

Current position for Friday: Primary program is Long: 37.5% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 50% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is 100% Money market. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is 100% Money market. There does not seem to be much left to this rally, but the expectation that it will continue could move more money into stocks prior to the weekend. Money pulled prior to the end of the year is coming back. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 3, 2018

Current position for Thursday: High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All other programs are 100% money market. The market seemed to have gotten ahead of itself close to the close and our signals became unstable so we moved to the money market in all but our High Exposure program. The rally could easily continue on Thursday as the closing looked good, but I do not expect major movement on Thursday and have taken the more conservative path. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

Comments: January 2, 2018

Current position for Wednesday: Primary program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Long/money market program is Long: 75% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Hot Money program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Retirement program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 1x fund. High Exposure program is Long: 100% Rydex S&P 2x fund. Anticipatory Trend program is Long: 60% Rydex S&P 2x fund. All of our programs are now fully long. The market's tax selling is over and the Tech sector is off to a roaring start. Money flow is positive for this week so I expect to see more up-days early this month. Last year had an exceptionally low volatility and an exceptionally high percentage of positive days. In general these go together as low volatility is calming for the markets. I don't expect that to continue as interest rates will most likely be moving higher and the dollar lower due to tax policy this should cause an inflationary trend that has nothing to do with high employment. If we get the higher volatility we will have more market uncertainty coming into a market where high PE ratios will meet higher interest rates bringing about a reason for the markets to change from straight up (2017) to sideways with both up and down trends in 2018. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.