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SIGNAL:
Our
forecast: [ UP, Down, or OUT ], shows the position for the next trading
day based upon our criteria with regard to risk, reward, and sample
size:
Up or LONG means the market is expected to go up. We would have
purchased the Rydex Dynamic NDX 2x Fund, or one of the other index
funds.
Down or SHORT means the market is expected to go down. We would have
purchased the Rydex Inverse NDX 2x Fund, or one of the other
"inverse" index funds.
OUT or CASH means we do not have sufficient reason to take a position
and we purchase the money market fund.
Each day, if the signal changes from the day before, we close out the
old position and replace it with the new one.
Probability:
The UP Probability box shows the % of time the S&P500 has risen
under similar conditions of investor emotion and money flow. The
Average amount (up) box shows the average amount in % that the market
went up, when it did go up.
The Down Probability box shows the % of time the market dropped under
the same conditions and the Average amount (down) shows the average size
of the drop for those days it actually went down.
Expected Amounts:
The "Average amounts" are adjusted for the current
volatility, providing a more accurate prediction for the size of the
average expected move. These probabilities are based upon ten
years of data and usually reflect a sample size of at least 30 related
cases. These are average moves. The extremes are also very
important because they show the potential risk associated with the
transaction. We do not post those figures at this time.
Each
day is a new opportunity.
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